Technical change in Senegal's irrigated rice sector: impact assessment under uncertainty

This paper addresses the prospects for technical change in the irrigated rice sector of Senegal, and measures ex‐ante the economic returns to recent research efforts. In 1994, three new rice varieties were released to farmers in the Senegal River Valley (SRV), the major irrigated rice region in Senegal. The productivity advantage of the new varieties is based primarily on early maturity, which permits double‐cropping. (The seeds are also higher yielding than existing cultivars.) We use a conventional [Akino and Hayami (1975), Am. J. Agric. Econ. 57, 1–10] partial‐equilibrium model adapted to the Senegalese situation, to assess the social benefits of research and compare those to its costs in calculating the internal rate of return (IRR). To account for uncertainty regarding the future values of model variables we use simulation which allows us to generate a distribution of all possible outcomes of the IRR. We find that rice research is almost certain to have a very high payoff over the 1995–2004 period. The expected value of the IRR is calculated to be 121% per year, with a 97.5% probability that it lies above annual capital costs of 18%. ©2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.     

供水企业投资风险分析与控制

针对供水企业投资存在着实际销售水量、预期水价实现程度以及坏账损失程度的不确定性,提出对投资风险因素的预测和选择合理的风险处理手段,供水企业投资风险的转移,实施风险共担和风险内部化策略等。把供水企业投资的风险降低到最低程度,以保证项目投资收益的最大化。即销售水量盈亏平衡计算。     

Climate change impacts on investment in crop sowing machinery*

A model of investment in crop sowing machinery is applied to wheat production under current and projected climatic conditions at several locations in south‐western Australia. The model includes yield responses to time of sowing at each location given current and projected climatic conditions. These yield relationships are based on wheat growth simulation modelling that in turn draws on data from a down‐scaled global circulation model. Wheat price distributions and cost of production data at each location, in combination with the time of sowing yield relationships are used to determine a farmer's optimal investment in crop sowing work rate under each climate regime. The key finding is that the impacts of climate change on profit distributions are often marked, yet mostly modest changes in investment in work rate form part of the profit‐maximising response to climate change. The investment response at high versus low rainfall locations mostly involves increases and decreases in work rates, respectively. However, changes to investment in work rate within a broadly similar rainfall region are not always uniform. The impacts of climate change on investments in work rate at a particular location are shown to require knowledge of several factors, especially how climate change alters the pattern of yield response to the time of sowing at that location.     

Farm bankruptcy risk as a link between direct payments and agricultural investment

The European Union is increasingly relying on direct paymentsto support farm incomes. Recent research has shown that a directpayment may increase production and investment by risk-aversefarmers via a link between wealth, risk aversion and decisionmaking. This paper shows that, even in the absence of risk aversion,a direct payment may stimulate farm investment. With lendersusing a standard insolvency rule for determining bankruptcy,the direct payment raises the expected value of marginal investmentbecause it reduces the risk of bankruptcy over the farmer'soperating time horizon. The investment response to the directpayment is larger for a farmer with an intermediate versus lowor high level of equity, and for a farmer with a long versusshort-time horizon.     

渔业经济持续发展的财政投入机制探讨

本文在对渔业经济可持续发展系统的内在构成、环境资本、资源资本、人力资本、社会资本、货币资本等进行阐述的基础上,指出与渔业经济可持续发展的内在构成相对应的财政投入机制可以细分为:生态补偿机制、风险分担机制、利益诱导机制、约束协调机制和公共服务机制。     

污水处理类上市公司战略、风险承担与研发投入

以污水处理类上市公司2013-2017年数据作为研究样本,以研发投入为被解释变量,以公司战略、风险承担为解释变量,结合污水处理行业的特点,运用多元回归模型分析了公司战略、风险承担对研发投入的影响。实证结果表明:公司战略和风险承担对研发投入均有显著的正向影响。最后,提出完善法律法规、转变发展战略、提升风险承担水平和加大研发投入等对策,以促进污水处理类公司的持续性发展。     

Urban water management: optimal price and investment policy under climate variability*

Australian urban water utilities face a significant challenge in designing appropriate demand management and supply augmentation policies in the presence of significant water scarcity and climate variability. This article considers the design of optimal demand management and supply augmentation policies for urban water. In particular, scarcity pricing is considered as a potential alternative to the predominant demand management policy of water restrictions. A stochastic dynamic programming model of an urban water market is developed based on data from the ACT region. Given a specification of the demand and supply for urban water state dependent optimal price and investment policies are estimated. The results illustrate how the optimal urban water price varies inversely with the prevailing storage level and how the optimal timing of investment differs significantly between rain dependent and rain independent augmentation options.     

Integrated assessment of public investment in land-use change to protect environmental assets in Australia

A framework for comprehensive integrated assessment of environmental projects is developed and applied in partnership with a regional environmental body. The framework combines theory with practice, bringing a pragmatic and efficient approach to the rigorous assessment of projects for a large number of environmental assets in the north central region of the state of Victoria, Australia. The approach is codified as the Investment Framework for Environmental Resources (INFFER). The analysis assisted the environmental body to make strong business cases for a number of environmental projects, resulting in funding for those projects. Key features of the study include extensive participation of decision makers and stakeholders, integration of a comprehensive set of information about projects, explicit assessment of uncertainties and information gaps, and analysis of the most appropriate policy mechanism for each project. The process of applying the framework involved four steps: identification of around 300 important environmental assets in the region, filtering the list of assets to remove those that are less likely to provide opportunities for cost-effective public investment, development and detailed assessment of projects for a subset of assets, and negotiation of funding for projects. Implications for land-use policy include that environmental projects vary widely in their cost-effectiveness, requiring careful targeting of funds if environmental benefits are to be maximised. Many existing environmental programs use simplistic analyses to support decision making, resulting in missed opportunities for substantially greater environmental benefits. Promoting adoption of improved analytical methods is very challenging, requiring changes in mind-set and culture in environmental organisations. Widespread adoption is unlikely unless funders create incentives by rewarding those project proponents who undertake rigorous and comprehensive project assessments that focus on achievement of environmental outcomes.     

渔业企业研发人员人力资本投资风险模糊综合评价

在文献分析和专家头脑风暴的基础上,构建了渔业企业研发人员人力资本投资风险评价指标体系,包括5个一级指标和15个二级指标。运用层次分析法对各指标的权重进行赋值,创建了渔业企业研发人员人力资本投资风险模糊综合评价模型,幵以山东某渔业企业研发人员人力资本投资风险为例进行了实证分析。实证研究的结果表明,渔业企业研发人员人力资本投资风险模糊综合评价模型具有较好的操作性和准确性,可以供其他渔业企业为针对研发人员的人力资本投资决策提供依据。     

我国水电企业海外投资政治风险保险的收益模型

依据政治风险事件对水电企业海外投资项目收益影响的大小,构建政治风险保险的收益评估模型,该模型考虑到政治风险发生的随机性,加入随机元素,且从当前数据出发,一定程度上减轻了对未来政治事件估计的难度,有助于水电企业进行政治风险的投保决策。最后给出我国水电企业利用保险措施规避政治风险的相关对策。     

工资协商制下企业人力资本投资决策均衡模型

由于人力资本的“天然”属性,企业人力资本投资决策有别于物质资本投资决策,企业人力资本投资主体与投资客体信息不对称,存在委托—代理关系。企业工资制度是影响投资主体和客体进行企业人力资本投资决策的重要因素。基于与市场经济相适应的工资决定和制衡机制———工资协商制度,建立了企业人力资本投资决策的博弈均衡模型,以探讨工资协商制度下的企业人力资本投资均衡策略。     

Business risk management programs under review

The Canadian federal, provincial, and territorial governments recently enacted a new 5-year agricultural policy framework, the Canadian Agricultural Partnership. While the framework contained few changes to existing policies, the governments also committed to a full review of Canadian business risk management (BRM) programs. In this article, I provide an overview of the existing suite of BRM programs and summarize the BRM program review. I conclude by making recommendations for future policy frameworks.     

中国海外投资水电项目的政治风险

政治风险的考量对于海外投资项目的成败至关重要,密松水电工程作为中国水电企业的境外投资项目,具有一定的代表性。密松水电站项目搁浅的政治风险因素涉及多个层面:缺乏合理的政治风险评估体系、公关意识的缺失、过程风险评估的不足、对当地文化与母国民意走向的不敏感、企业缺乏独立性与风险分担意识。通过对密松水电站案例的剖析,试图从政府、企业双视角下探讨中国海外投资水电项目政治风险的规避对策。     

扎龙自然保护区景观格局动态变化及其生态风险研究

区域生态风险研究可以为保护区域景观生态系统健康,实现区域资源的合理和可持续利用提供重要科学依据。本文以扎龙自然保护区为研究区,利用遥感手段提取研究区1995年和2010年的景观类型信息,定量分析了不同时期研究区景观格局特征和动态演变规律。根据研究区景观格局变化特点构建研究区景观生态风险指数,对研究区景观生态风险变化特征及演变规律进行分析。研究表明:1995～2010年研究区景观总体格局和各景观类型格局均变化显著;景观生态风险随时间变化而升高,沼泽地、水域和耕地这三类主要景观的生态风险变化是研究区生态风险变化的主导因素。研究区景观生态风险分布大体符合由中心向四周、由高风险向低风险的环形扩散特征。     

后危机时代技术贸易壁垒的新趋势及对策研究

金融危机后,新技术贸易壁垒以其隐蔽性强、透明度低及合法性等特点,越来越受到发达国家的青睐。为了维护我国对外贸易的利益,本文从金融危机后技术贸易壁垒的新趋势、对我国贸易的负面影响及我国的应对策略等方面出发,对新技术贸易壁垒进行研究。     

全球气候变化对海洋生物多样性影响的预测

本文是William W.L.Cheung等发表于2009年出版的<鱼类与渔业>1-17页"全球气候变化对海洋生物多样性影响的预测"一文的译文.译文作者阐述了通过气候变化可以对海洋生物多样性产生影响,改变鱼类品种.但是,气候变化对海洋生物多样性影响的研究目前在全球范围还寥寥无几.本文以1066个生物鱼类和无脊椎动物的分布范围为例,应用最新的生物气候分室模型,预测了截至2050年伞球气候变化对海洋生物多样性的影响.预测表明,在近极地、热带半封闭海域,气候变化可能导致大量土著晶种消失.同时,外来品种侵入,尤其在南、北极海域侵入程度更大.这导致现有生物多样体中60%的品种发生戏剧性变化,这将意味着生态系统被潜在破坏而导致生态失调.这些预测町以成为未来分析研究的假设.     

Influence of strategies and heuristics on farmers' response to change under uncertainty

Hierarchical Decision Models of woolproducers' decisions provide unique insights into the impact of major price changes. Producers' lagged response in some contexts appear to be due to the ambiguous decision environment they face, their strategic goals and responses to that environment apart from lags caused by factors such as attitude to risk, expectations adjustment, adjustment costs and learning costs. Much of the response to major price changes comes from strategic decisions to change enterprises rather than marginal changes to existing enterprises. In ambiguous environments, methods may need to be found that incorporate simplifying behavioural rules and strategies.     

Measuring producer welfare under output price uncertainty and risk non-neutrality

Procedures to measure the producer welfare effects of changes in an output price distribution under uncertainty are reviewed. Theory and numerical integration methods are combined to show how for any form of Marshallian risk-responsive supply, compensating variation of a change in higher moments of an output price distribution can be derived numerically. The numerical procedure enables measurement of producer welfare effects in the many circumstances in which risk and uncertainty are important elements. The practical ease and potential usefulness of the procedure is illustrated by measuring the producer welfare effects of USA rice policy.     

Wine market prices and investment under uncertainty: an econometric model for Bordeaux Crus Classés

This paper describes an econometric assessment of wine market prices for 21 of the Crus Classés châteaux in the Bordeaux region of France. The model developed in the analysis attempts to define the relationship between factors that influence wine quality and those that influence wine prices. Characteristics of the models are: (1) climate influences on grape composition (acid and sugar levels), (2) grape composition influences on market prices, (3) subjective quality evaluations (Parker‐points) on market prices, and (4) the effects of age of the wine on market prices. The results indicate that composition levels of Merlot‐dominated wines are more climate sensitive than those from Cabernet Sauvignon‐dominated wines. Overall, warm, dry summers result in high sugar and low acid levels at harvest which in turn lead to higher quality wines. Wine market price sensitivity to Parker‐point ratings indicates that properties with high Cabernet Sauvignon‐dominated wines are highly dependent on the external ratings while Merlot‐dominated wines have a decreased rating sensitivity. Smaller properties tend to gain over proportionally from high ratings indicating great jumps in price from year to year. Additionally, châteaux that have experienced high ratings for past vintages exhibit great sensitivity to point steps in ratings for current vintages. Aging has a positive effect on Bordeaux wine pricing. This is due to the increasing maturity as well as the increasing absolute scarcity. Absolute scarcity of product is expressed by the size of the property, with small properties producing less per vintage and therefore having less in the market. Additionally, Merlot‐dominated wines exhibit more maturing potential and profit more from aging than Cabernet Sauvignon‐dominated wines. Average per château real annual profit ranges from 1 to 10%. High levels of grape ripeness, absolute scarcity, and smaller properties that are dominated by Merlot in their blend lead to the highest profits. Forecasts for a vintage not yet on the market indicates that 1995 is better than 1994 for both Cabernet Sauvignon and Merlot‐dominated wines, but that 1996 and 1997 are not as good as 1995, especially for Merlot‐dominated wines.