《峥嵘岁月》序

正2011年11月8日晚,已年届82岁的刘鸿儒老师请首都金融理论界的李扬、王广谦、张杰等10位中青年吃饭,席间,刘老师着意说道:松奇的同学中出了一大批人,武捷思、马德伦、王兆星,郑晖、刘连舸、罗哲夫、万峰等,吉林财院真挺厉害!刘鸿儒老师是当代中国金融巨擘,我们吉财同学在巨擘心目中有此地位,这是何等荣耀之事,当然,这更是我们的母校——吉林财院的荣光。特别值得注意的是,刘老师点名的7人中竟有3名出自我们金融78·9班!吉林财院在上个世纪70、80年代时与东财、上财、川财、湖财等院校比肩相似,但因机缘人事等种种原因,我们的母校在     

杜建光:静水流深

坐在我对面的这个男人语速很慢,手势几乎没有。他喜欢静坐,喜欢喝茶,喜欢发烧音乐,唯一的运动就是打打羽毛球,用他自己的话来说,很宅。     

深入剖析Compiere ERP & CRM数据模型的研究

设计一个成熟稳定的ERP系统的关键是创建通用的数据模型框架和能够适应企业业务流程的软件体系。本文通过"报价-发票"业务流程中的销售订单业务深入分析Compiere ERP & CRM(Web Application版本)的通用数据模型及其动态数据字典设计思想,为企业导入应用和客户化定制提供基本思路。     

基于新监管框架的中国股权众筹的“热发展”与“冷思考”

本文立足于股权众筹在中国的发展特征、现状的基础上,运用PEST分析法从政策环境、经济环境、社会环境和技术环境四个角度证实了中国具备股权众筹发展的可行性,而且通过研究英美股权众筹的发展经验来寻找新监管框架下中国股权众筹的发展突破口,提出明确市场定位、简化融资流程且减少融资约束、完善融后管理机制、注重模式创新等建议。     

An Investigation of the Short‐Run and Long‐Run Stock Returns Surrounding Insurer Rating Changes

We find that stock returns move in the direction of insurer rating changes in the 12‐month period prior to the announcement. There is an additional stock price response following the announcement of a downgrade, but no response to upgrade announcements. The reaction to a downgrade is more pronounced when it involves a smaller insurer, when it spans multiple levels, or when it is a threshold downgrade. Returns are significantly more negative during the 12 months leading up to a downgrade announcement during the financial crisis (2008 and 2009) compared to other sample years.     

商业银行挤兑问题研究

挤兑对银行来说是一种灾难性的危机,社会危害巨大。要深入研究造成挤兑的原因,妥善应对,果断处置;同时要加强对挤兑的防范,维护金融稳定。     

Stock Returns and Volatility: Pricing the Short‐Run and Long‐Run Components of Market Risk

We explore the cross‐sectional pricing of volatility risk by decomposing equity market volatility into short‐ and long‐run components. Our finding that prices of risk are negative and significant for both volatility components implies that investors pay for insurance against increases in volatility, even if those increases have little persistence. The short‐run component captures market skewness risk, which we interpret as a measure of the tightness of financial constraints. The long‐run component relates to business cycle risk. Furthermore, a three‐factor pricing model with the market return and the two volatility components compares favorably to benchmark models.     

对发展民营银行问题的探讨

随着改革的深入和民营经济的迅猛发展,以及我国加入WTO步伐的加快,金融对内的开放已经迫在眉睫了.在这个过程之中,民营银行的发展是一个很主要的方面.文章先对民营银行加以界定,即民营银行应该是有着良好的公司治理结构、采用市场化经营机制的银行,即"产权明晰、权责明确、政企分开、管理科学"的现代股份制银行.然后再对发展民营银行对金融体系的改革和效率的提升,以及对实物经济的支持加以分析.并且总结历史经验教训,以史为鉴地提出要大力发展民营银行就要求做到"民营化试点、加强监管、放松管制、抓住产权优势".     

Run length and the predictability of stock price reversals

Survival analysis is used to estimate time‐varying probabilities of price reversals using daily data for the Australian All Ordinaries Price Index. Lagged price changes lead to persistence (shortening) in a price run if they are of the same (opposite) sign as the run. An increase in the number of runs observed in the previous 30 days also increases the probability of price reversal. The predictive accuracy of the models is assessed using a probability scoring rule. Consistent with market efficiency, the estimated models are less accurate than the random walk model in predicting the length of individual price runs out‐of‐sample.     

韩国银行挤兑停业风波对我国的启示

进入2011年以来,由于房产价格急剧萎缩,房贷违约不断攀升,韩国小型银行停业事件接连发生。1月14日韩国金融委员会勒令韩国三和互助储蓄银行停业6个月;2月17日金融委员会勒令釜山储蓄银行及其分行大田联合储蓄银行停业6个月;2月19日,韩国金融委员会勒令附属     

Understanding the Distributional Impact of Long‐Run Inflation

The impact of fully anticipated inflation is systematically studied in heterogeneous agent economies with an endogenous labor supply and portfolio choices. In stationary equilibrium, inflation nonlinearly alters the endogenous distributions of income, wealth, and consumption. Small departures from zero inflation have the strongest impact. Three features determine how inflation impacts distributions and welfare: financial structure, shock persistence, and labor supply elasticity. When agents can self‐insure only with money, inflation reduces wealth inequality but may raise consumption inequality. Otherwise, inflation reduces consumption inequality but may raise wealth inequality. Given persistent shocks and an inelastic labor supply, inflation may raise average welfare. The results hold when the model is extended to account for capital formation.