A model of technological breakthrough in the renewable energy sector

Models with induced technological change in the energy sector often predict a gradual expansion of renewable energies, and a substantial share of fossil fuels remaining in the energy mix through the end of our century. However, there are historical examples where new products or technologies expanded rapidly and achieved a high output in a relatively short period of time. This paper explores the possibility of a ‘technological breakthrough’ in the renewable energy sector, using a partial equilibrium model of energy generation with endogenous R&D. Our results indicate, that due to increasing returns-to-scale, a multiplicity of equilibria can arise. In the model, two stable states can coexist, one characterized by a lower and one by higher supply of renewable energy. The transition from the low-output to the high-output equilibrium is characterized by a discontinuous rise in R&D activity and capacity investments in the renewable energy sector. The transition can be triggered by a rise in world energy demand, by a drop in the supply of fossil fuels, or by policy intervention. Under market conditions, the transition occurs later than in the social optimum. Hence, we identify a market failure related to path-dependence and technological lock-in, that can justify a strong policy intervention initially. Paradoxically, well-intended energy-saving policies can actually lead to higher emissions, as they reduce the incentives to invest in renewable energies by having a cushioning effect on the energy price. Hence, these policies should be supplemented by other instruments that restore the incentives to invest in renewable energies. Finally, we discuss the influence of monopoly power in the market for innovations. We show that market power can alleviate the problem of technological lock-in, but creates a new market failure that reduces static efficiency.     

Uncertainty and switching in the mortgage market

We examine when it might be optimal for borrowers to switch providers of debt products such as their mortgage, allowing in particular for the role of uncertainty by constructing a stylized real options model of the decision problem involved. We illustrate with numerical examples, and then calibrate the model for the UK mortgage market for the period October 1998 to March 2005; significant magnitudes of trigger levels can arise even when standard switching costs are zero, providing an additional, risk-related explanation to the inertia commonly observed in borrowers' product choices.     

Strategic Quality Decisions by Heterogeneously Informed Suppliers — The Role of "Noise Consumers"—

In a differentiated oligopoly market, it is often the case that consumers' ex post preferences over different product qualities depend upon the state of nature which is not yet observable to the consumers at the time of purchase. One of the most typical examples is a market for durable goods or long-term service contracts, where the state is indeed a future state which has not yet realised when the transaction is made. To analyse such situations, this paper models a two-stage game, in which multiple suppliers move first to choose the quality of their products based upon their idiosyncratic information about the state. Consumers then observe these products, update their beliefs about the state, and decide which products to purchase. Counterintuitively, suppliers' incentives to reveal their private information are higher when there is a fraction of consumers whose prior about the state is moderately inaccurate, than when every consumer has better prior information. Hence the presence of such "noise consumers" can make all consumers better off, even including noise consumers themselves.     

Relating inertia and experience in technology markets: an analysis of households’ personal computer choices

This article empirically analyses how households’ PC purchasing behaviours change with market experience. We find that: households generally exhibit inertia in their PC purchases, the level of inertia is increasing as a function of experience on the PC market, and, for households switching brands, the likelihood of buying a lesser-known brand increases with experience, regardless of the brand of the previous purchase. These findings are consistent with the predictions of a simple learning model, and extend our understanding of how market experience affects purchasing behaviour to an important technology product, with implications that may apply to other similar products.     

DOUBLE‐SIDED ADVERSE SELECTION IN THE PRODUCT MARKET AND THE ROLE OF THE INSURANCE MARKET*

I investigate the interrelation between a product market and an insurance market when adverse‐selection problems exist both in consumers and in firms. Firms offer warranties for product failures. Consumers may further purchase first‐party insurance for the residual risks of product failures. Given that the insurance market exists, two types of equilibria are possible: (a) Different firm types offer different pooling warranties attracting both good and bad consumer types or (b) good firms attract only bad consumers and bad firms attract both types of consumers. I discuss the existence and the efficiency implication of the insurance market.     

Adverse selection and statistical discrimination: An analysis of Canadian automobile insurance

Statistical discrimination occurs when a characteristic, such as sex, is used as an indicator of the risk group of an individual. The theory of adverse selection is used to explain the occurrence of statistical discrimination. A model of the market for collision insurance, which is based on the theory of adverse selection, is estimated on Canadian data. The results suggest that adverse selection occurs in this market. Simulations of the effect of prohibiting sexual discrimination in the 21–24 age group indicate that the premiums for single females would increase substantially and that a significant proportion would no longer purchase collision insurance.     

Anticipation effects of technological progress on capital accumulation: a vintage capital approach

Due to embodied technological progress new generations of capital goods are more productive. Therefore, in order to study the effects of technological progress, a model must be analyzed in which different generations of capital goods can be distinguished. We determine in what way the firm adjusts current investments to predictions of technological progress. In the presence of market power we show that a negative anticipation effect occurs, i.e. current investments in recent generations of capital goods decline when faster technological progress will take place in the future, because then it becomes more attractive to wait for new generations of capital goods. In case that only investments in new machines are possible, actually a whole wave of anticipation phases arises.     

Forecasting customer switching intention in mobile service: An exploratory study of predictive factors in mobile number portability

This study investigates switching barriers under the mobile number portability (MNP) in the U.S. mobile market. The structural equation modeling analysis is used to evaluate the causal model, and confirmatory factor analysis is performed to examine the reliability and validity of the measurement model. The logistic regression is used to investigate the effect of demographics on switching decision. The findings indicate that customer satisfactions, switching barriers, and demographics significantly affect subscribers' intent to switch. Among them, switching barriers had the most significant influence, which raises a question of the effectiveness of MNP. The MNP in the U.S. mobile market is intended to play an important role in lowering switching costs which can increase the level competition among providers. The findings, however, imply that subscribers still perceive switching barrier high, discouraging them from switching carriers.     

On price competition with complementary goods

We consider a duopoly industry with two separate firms each selling an indivisible product. The joint consumption of these goods has a specific value for the consumers which exceeds the mere addition of utilities when products are consumed in isolation: the higher this excess, the larger the complementarity between the goods. We analyse price equilibria in this market as related to the degree of complementarity existing between the two products.     

市场轨道理论溯源:技术轨道与市场颠覆

基于"创新"概念的内涵和外延的丰富性,提出拓宽轨道理论的新构想,将研究焦点从"技术视角"延伸至"市场视角"。认为:市场轨道的理论源头是技术轨道理论和市场颠覆理论;基于市场轨道演化的创新产品或服务可获取侵蚀或替代现有市场的市场渗透机会,即新市场逐渐侵蚀已有的主流市场空间,甚至全面颠覆原有的主流市场;市场轨道的特性和效应与技术轨道具有对称性。     

Switching costs, consumer heterogeneity and price discrimination

In a duopoly with price discrimination and switching costs, we analyse the evolution of market structure, when an incumbent and a new entrant compete, and a new class of users with lower willingness to pay appears in the market. We find that the market share of the new entrant depends on the degree of heterogeneity and the level of switching costs. In particular, if the degree of heterogeneity is intermediate, the evolution of market structure is similar for high and null switching costs. Since consumer surplus and social welfare are unambiguously lower under high switching costs, this result points at the risk of inferring the degree of market competitiveness from the convergence in market shares.     

Household internal and external electricity contract switching in EU countries

Using a representative sample of more than 13,000 households from eight countries in the European Union (EU), this article empirically studies the factors related to household electricity contract switching by distinguishing between internal switchers (households that switched contracts but stayed with the same supplier) from external switchers (households that switched to a new supplier). The econometric analysis includes individual preferences, household structural factors and socio-demographic characteristics, as well as electricity market characteristics. The study explicitly explores the role of risk and time preferences on switching behaviours, with risk and time preferences elicited through incentivized experiments as well as self-assessment scales. The main results suggest that internal and external switching are not related to the same factors, that risk and time preferences affect switching behaviours, and that renters are less likely to switch than homeowners; further, electricity market characteristics are found to affect household electricity contract switching.     

Financial frictions and the futures pricing puzzle

In perfect capital markets, the futures price of an asset should be an unbiased forecast of its realized spot price when the contract matures. In reality, futures prices are often higher for some assets and lower for others. However, there is no stability in the relationship between futures prices and the realized spot prices. This instability has been a puzzle in the existing financial literature. The key to this puzzle may lie in the nature of the model and the lack of market imperfections. In this study, we take a theoretical approach in a dynamic multi-period environment. We incorporate competition between disparate economic agents and impose financial frictions (i.e., imperfections) that are in the form of hedging and borrowing limits on them. Our model gives rise to multiple equilibria, each with unique market clearing prices, with the market switching between these equilibria. Our analysis incorporates a comprehensive consideration of the risks faced by the futures markets participants (i.e., speculators and hedgers) and leads to a better understanding of the puzzle.     

On the persistence of lackluster demand—the history of the video telephone

Some radically new, technological products soar smoothly from introduction to stunning market growth, just as textbooks say they should. However, that is not always the case, nor is it even the most likely outcome. The case of the videophone is an extreme one to be sure but it offers six important lessons that apply to many other radically new technological products: (1) not every new technology leads to stunning market success; (2) just because the press says it will, does not mean it will; (3) growth often takes longer than expected; (4) growth often reaches lower levels than expected; (5) technological convergence is not a certainty; and (6) innovations involving complex systems face more hurdles to market acceptance than “stand-alone” innovations.     

ENTRANTS' REPUTATION AND INDUSTRY DYNAMICS

This article analyzes entry–exit decisions in a market where reputation determines the price that firms may charge, within a rational‐expectation model of competition in a nonatomic market under heterogeneous reputations. The analysis focuses on the class of name‐switching reputational equilibria, in which a firm discards its name if and only if its reputation falls below the entrants' reputation. The main technical result is the existence of a unique steady‐state equilibrium within this class, in which the entrants' reputation is endogenous. The resulting industry dynamics is largely on agreement with the findings in the empirical literature.     

Who you are or whom you know? Consumption interdependences in social networks

This paper presents an analysis of whether a consumer's decision to switch from one mobile phone provider to another is driven by individual consumer characteristics or by actions of other consumers in her social network. Such consumption interdependences are estimated using a unique dataset, which contains transaction data based on anonymized call records from a large European mobile phone carrier to approximate a consumer's social network. Results show that network effects have an important impact on consumers’ switching decisions: switching decisions are interdependent between consumers who interact with each other and this interdependence increases in the closeness between two consumers as measured by the calling data. In other words, if a subscriber switches carriers, she is also affecting the switching probabilities of other individuals in her social circle. The paper argues that such an approach is of high relevance to both switching of providers and to the adoption of new products.     

When should firms choose a risky new technology? An oligopolistic analysis

How to choose technology type in a competitive environment is an important and challenging problem, which has received little attention from scholars. To fill this gap, this paper builds a game-theoretic model to examine whether a firm should choose to adopt a risky new technology or to adopt a safe new technology to reduce its marginal cost. I find that the result that each firm should always choose the risky technology in a duopoly may be invalid when more firms enter the market. In this scenario, some firms should adopt the safe technology for relatively high product substitutability because the advantage of employing the risky technology is threatened by the business stealing externality, finally forming heterogeneous equilibria in which both types of technologies are present. Furthermore, I show that the heterogeneous technology choice equilibria are more likely to arise when increasing number of firms enter the market, and that in these equilibria more firms always choose the risky technology than the safe technology. This study conveys relevant economic insights for competitive firms confronted with a dilemma between taking risks in pursuit of greater technology rewards and taking no risks for conservative technology returns.     

A technology replacement model with variable market potential — An empirical study of CRT and LCD TV

The rapidly changing economic environment and increasingly fierce competition indicate that companies must innovate in both their products and marketing strategies if they are to continue to flourish. Specifically, the ability to accurately predict the demand for products is crucial when firms decide to allocate their resources, especially in the fast moving high technology industries, where there is very high investment in R&D and production facilities. This study establishes a forecast model for technology replacement based on the diffusion model with population growth used for the variable market potential. The proposed model is then applied to investigate the CRT and LCD TV market.The results suggest that the new model is more accurate than the constant market potential model in fitting and forecasting performance. Consumers who purchase a TV for the first time are likely more attracted to LCD TV rather than CRT TV. As for those individuals who already own a CRT TV, the attraction is not strong enough to encourage them to replace their current CRT TV with a new LCD TV. Moreover, it is noted that the falling price of LCD TV is an essential factor in encouraging purchases.     

Graded eco-labels: A demand-oriented approach to reduce pollution

Supplied oriented environmental policies are generally used in order to limit production related pollution. This fact is based on the hypothesis that consumers are not willing to sacrifice personal utility for a wider social gain. We suggest that widespread environmental concerns of consumers can be exploited to push producers along cleaner technological patterns. Our core assumption is that consumers would be ready to purchase cleaner products if the products' characteristics are not ‘too dissimilar’ to those of more polluting alternatives. However, due to a lack of information about non-observable product characteristics, this assumption on its own is not sufficient for ‘environmental friendly’ producers to become competitive. We show - by means of a simulation model - that only if consumers are provided with appropriate information on the greenness of products through adequate eco-labels (graded eco-labels), then producers will be pressed to implement innovations aimed at reducing the environmental impact of their products. Under two test settings - one without any certification and another with binary eco-labels - the model shows markets characterised by highly polluting technological patterns. Only in the presence of graded eco-labels, competition drives the market toward cleaner technological patterns.     

中国重大技术装备制造业的技术升级路径选择——政府介入下的业主与中外厂商博弈研究

本文分析了重大技术装备需求业主的购买及重复购买国外设备的策略,指出巨大的市场需求以及业主之间的竞争使得业主购买和重复购买国外设备的行为陷入了囚徒困境。业主的重复购买和国内厂商的技术控制导致了中国重大技术装备制造业的结构性矛盾,造成了对国外引进的技术装备消化吸收能力不强,严重制约了中国重大技术装备制造业技术水平的提升。为此,本文提出以国家重大项目建设为契机,用政策工具约束业主行为,从而提升中国重大技术装备制造业的技术水平。