The Role of Economic-Demographic Factors in U.S. International Restaurant Franchising:

This paper studies the effect of both economic and demographic factors on the international restaurant franchising (IRF). The study utilizes regression analysis of pooled cross-section (6 countries) and time series (10 years)data. It is found that among the economic factors, the market size has a strong positive effect on IRF. On the other hand, the ratio of female workers to the total labor force is positively related to international restaurant franchising. The paper also investigates the relationship between demo-economic factors and IRF for two subsets of interest, developed and developing countries.     

银行利润对经济增长影响的实证分析——基于中美两国数据的对比

随着中国利率市场化改革的深化,银行拥有更多的经营自主权,但银行在信贷市场中所处的垄断地位却没有随着利率市场化改革而相应改变。运用VECM模型对中国12家上市银行及同时期美国商业银行的利润增长对经济发展的影响进行了实证研究,结果表明美国的银行利润增长显著促进了经济发展。相比之下,中国银行利润增长对经济发展的长期影响并不显著,而四大国有银行利润增长对经济发展有显著的阻碍作用,非国有银行利润增长则对经济发展有显著的促进作用。四大国有银行在信贷市场中的垄断地位导致其对经济发展产生阻碍,这意味着中国利率市场化改革及资本市场改革仍不彻底。因此,应鼓励非国有股份制银行发展,并进一步深化利率市场化改革及资本市场改革。     

基于空间计量的进出口贸易与居民收入差距的关系研究

基于空间计量经济学,采用我国31个省2002～2010年的面板数据,实证检验得到主要结论如下:(1)我国各省份的居民收入差距(城乡之间、城镇之间、农村之间)在空间分布上表现出一定的空间正自相关性和集聚效应,不同地区的居民收入差距存在空间互补效应;(2)进出口贸易总额的增加会引起我国城乡居民之间的收入差距和城镇居民内部收入差距的缩小,而对农村居民内部的收入差距没有显著的影响;(3)进口贸易总额的增加带来城乡居民之间收入差距拉大,城镇居民收入差距的缩小,对农村居民内部收入差距没有显著影响;(4)出口贸易总额的增加会引起城乡居民之间收入差距和城镇居民内部收入差距的缩小,而引起农村居民内部收入差距的扩大。     

U.S. International Deficits,Debt, and Income Payments: Key Relationships Affecting the International Outlook

A variety of issues and relationships will be of fundamental importance in determining the future paths of the U.S. current account, international debt position, and net international income flows. This paper describes the key relationships and presents projection results that illustrate the sensitivity of the outcomes to those relationships. Although the base case scenario presented in the paper shows a relatively benign outcome based on Blue Chip projections and the likely continuation of historical relationships, alternative projections help to illustrate the risks—and the potential sources of those risks— for a more adverse outcome for U.S. international deficits, debt and income flows. JEL Classification F21     

美国对华直接投资的经济增长效应分析

自改革开放以来,我国利用外资取得了举世瞩目的成就。而随着外资规模的扩大和外商投资领域的拓宽,这股力量对我国的经济发展产生了越来越大的影响。美国对华直接投资是这股力量中的重要组成部分,而且与其他来源国的跨国资本相比,美资企业具有生产技术先进、管理水平高和单个项目投资规模大等特点。因此,本文在分析外商对华投资总体影响的基础上,着重探讨了美国对华投资对我国经济增长的影响。计量分析结果表明,国外资本的进入,对我国的长期经济增长会产生显著的促进作用,但美资进入却呈现出相反的效果:其在我国国内资本形成中所占比例的增长率每提高1个百分点,我国人均GDP的增长率将下降0.095个百分点。     

中国服务贸易国际竞争力比较及增长方式分析

随着经济全球化进程的不断加快,服务贸易在国际贸易的比重不断上升,服务贸易水平已经成为衡量一国经济发展的重要指标。如何看待服务贸易的增长、找出中国服务业发展的不足,如何在处理好服务贸易与其他领域关系的同时抓住发展的契机,对于中国而言都是非常值得研究的问题。     

广东省对外贸易与经济增长关系的实证分析

文章采用现代计量经济学的分析方法--协整分析和格兰杰因果关系检验,对广东省改革开放以来对外贸易与经济增长的相互关系进行实证分析,结论表明:广东省对外贸易与经济增长之间存在着相互促进的关系,其中,广东省GDP增长对进、出口增加的促进作用大于进、出口增加对GDP增长的促进作用.     

从一个数学模型看经济增长与国际收支关系

国民经济内外均衡涉及到如何处理经济增长和国际收支关系问题。保持适度的经济增长是保持国际收支平衡或顺差的关键点之一。我国和拉美经济建设的经验和教训都说明了过分追求经济增长速度,往往造成经济大幅波动和其他一些严重后果。     

中国货币政策对美国货币政策独立性的实证分析

在外汇储备快速增加和汇率制度面临选择的背景下,中国货币政策的独立性备受关注。本文运用Ordered Probit模型,对中国货币政策相对美国货币政策的独立性进行了实证分析。结果表明:1998年1月至2011年6月,中国基本保持了货币政策的独立性;从1998年1月至2005年6月和2005年7月至2011年6月汇率浮动幅度有明显差异的两个时段分析我国货币政策的独立性的差异,发现人民币汇率浮动幅度的放宽并未导致中国货币政策独立性的增强,放宽汇率管制并不能增强中国货币政策的独立性。     

An Empirical Analysis of Motives for Offshore Outsourcing by U.S. Firms

In light of the political debate on offshore outsourcing, this article examines firm financial characteristics associated with the probability of being identified as an outsourcer. In a sample of S&P 500 firms, we find that firms identified as outsourcers operate in more competitive industries and have relatively worse operating performance, higher administrative overhead, and higher labor overhead. These firm characteristics are consistent with cost-cutting objectives and the need to respond to competitive pressures. We find that the need to lower labor costs is a significant determinant of manufacturing firms locating operations overseas, while lowering administrative overhead influences service firms' outsourcing decisions. From a policy perspective, our results suggest that the political pressure to limit firms' ability to offshore outsource will likely reduce their flexibility to respond to operating and competitive challenges.     

扩大内需与促进出口关系的实证分析——基于国内消费视角

文章从国内消费视角,分析了扩大内需与促进出口的相互影响和传导路径,并基于1981～2008年中美两国的相关数据,运用协整理论进行检验。结果表明,长期中,内需与出口具有相互影响、相互促进的作用。除二者间相互的直接作用外,在促进内需增长的同时,出口会受到内需增长溢出效应的作用而增长,而刺激出口增长的同时,国内需求会受到外需反馈效应的作用而扩大。     

U.S.-Based Fast-Food Restaurants: Factors Influencing the International Expansion of Franchise Systems

Studies of international franchising are scant but increasing and can be divided into two streams of research: those focusing on environmental predictors of internationalization and those focusing on strategic, firm-level characteristics. Examining the latter category, this study empirically explores a set of firm-level attributes as predictors of decision making on whether firms seek international expansion. Using longitudinal data from Bond's Franchise Guide 2001–2008, we draw on a sample of U.S.-based fast-food franchise systems to test our hypotheses. Specifically, our database is composed of 1,058 observations of 158 chains, and we estimate a semi-parametric logistic model for international franchising. The model contributes to the literature by being the first to examine the nonlinearity of international franchising determinants using agency theory. The results show that (a) bonding, (b) the percentage of franchised units, (c) the number of states within which the system operates, and (d) the provision of area development agreements and sub-franchising significantly contribute to the international expansion of U.S.-based fast-food franchisors.     

服务贸易对美国经常账户赤字的影响——基于豪斯克-麦奇收入不对称效应的验证

本文尝试构建一个基于H-M效应的模型,分析H-M效应对美国经常账户赤字变化的影响机制。并就该模型对美国经常账户赤字变化的解释能力进行验证,结果表明H-M效应对美国经常账户赤字的变化趋势具有较好的解释力。在此基础上,本文应用1986-2005年的数据分别估算了美国商品和服务品进出口收入弹性系数。估算结果显示,与商品进出口收入弹性系数相反,美国服务出口的收入弹性系数大于进口的收入弹性系数。为了探讨服务贸易对美国经常账户赤字的影响,应用基于H-M效应的模型分析美国服务贸易的发展对其经常账户赤字变化的影响。     

The sensitivity of U.S. multinational enterprises to political and macroeconomic uncertainty: A sectoral analysis

This paper confronts two alternative approaches for explaining U.S. foreign direct investment (FDI) pattern in developing countries. According to the real options (RO) approach, FDI in capital-intensive industries should be particularly deterred by political and macroeconomic uncertainty. On the other hand, the supply chain risk management (SCRM) approach puts forward that multinational enterprises in vertically integrated industries are unlikely to locate their foreign activities in risky countries. Thanks to the use of sectoral data, it is demonstrated that the SCRM approach explains much better the pattern of U.S. FDI in developing countries than the RO approach.     

Financial Development,International Trade,and Economic Growth in Australia: New Evidence From Multivariate Framework Analysis

This study investigates the relationship between financial development, international trade and economic growth for Australia over the period of 1965 to 2010. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration is applied to examine the long-run relationship among the series, whereas stationarity properties of the variables are tested by applying two structural break tests. Results confirm the long-run relationship among the variables. Financial development, international trade, and capital appear as the drivers of economic growth in short and long runs. The feedback effect exists between international trade and economic growth. Financial development Granger causes economic growth validating supply-side hypothesis.     

我国经济增长与收入分配的关系探析

我国的经济体制改革在带来经济高速增长的同时也引起了居民收入分配格局的重大变化,居民收入总量增长的同时,收入分配的差距也越来越大,其中既有二元经济结构的影响,也有区域经济发展不平衡的作用,还有垄断行业职工收入超常增长的因素,目前收入差距对经济增长的影响已经由过去的支持转变为制约。作为发展中的社会主义国家,必须认真对待收入差距过大问题,在科学发展观的指导下,在实现全面小康社会的过程中,在增长与分配协调发展的原则下走向共同富裕。     

从知识产权协议草案看TPP 谈判高标准 与国际规则制定

本文以目前TPP谈判唯一泄露的知识产权草案为切入点,通过与另一知识产权高标准协议——ACTA的比较,认为TPP谈判标准是目前之最高标准。知识产权高标准代表了发达国家对外贸易的经济利益,美国以胡萝卜加大棒的方式影响国际规则的制定,使得知识产权高标准成为另一种无形的贸易障碍。     

减税和扩大政府支出对经济增长和扩大内需的效率与效力比较——基于SVAR模型的分析

本文运用SVAR模型考察了改革开放30年来,税收与政府支出对经济增长、居民消费和企业投资的影响关系.结果显示,在弹性关系层面无法确定政府支出、税收和经济增长之间是否存在协整关系.但在增长率层面政府支出对于经济增长和扩大内需均有促进作用,而税收的作用则相反.扩大政府支出对于促进经济增长和扩大居民消费而言,比减税的影响效率与效力都强,但减税对企业投资的促进效率与效力则优于扩大政府支出所产生的影响.     

进口贸易视域下国际粮价对国内粮价的传导路径--来自玉米和大豆的证据

基于玉米和大豆等粮食国际、国内价格历史数据,运用协整及误差修正模型、脉冲响应函数等方法,揭示国际粮价对国内粮价的传导作用及影响路径。理论分析表明,国际粮价通过进口直接路径、进口产品成本路径和进口替代路径等三个子路径传导至国内粮价。实证检验发现,国际大豆价格进口直接路径和进口产品成本路径传导均比较充分,即国际大豆价格会影响大豆进口价格,进而影响国内大豆价格,最终影响国内豆油价格;国际玉米价格进口直接路径和进口产品成本路径传导则不充分,国际玉米价格会影响玉米进口价格,但是对国内玉米价格和国内玉米淀粉价格影响程度较低;而在进口替代路径中,玉米和大豆的国际价格传导均不充分。我国应继续推进以提质增效为目标的农业供给侧结构性改革,加大粮食生产科技投入力度,调动农民种粮积极性,集中力量提高粮食供给质量和效率;坚持粮食进口仅为调剂国内供求余缺的方针,把握粮食安全的主动权;建立健全粮食市场的价格调控体系及风险防控体系,规避国际粮食市场剧烈波动对国内粮食市场的影响。