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Fiscal policy in developed countries has been a rich topic since the Great Recession. However, research has remained limited for developing countries despite their similar use of fiscal policy and concerns about the efficiency of public spending. To help address this research gap, this paper provides a case study of multiplier effects of local government spending in regions in the Philippines as well as spillover effects of local government spending across regions. An instrumental variable based on the country’s intergovernmental transfer system is used to identify regional public spending in panel regressions. The local fiscal multiplier is estimated to be above one, where a 1-peso rise in spending by local government units in a region corresponds to a 1.2-peso rise in regional output. Multiplier effects are highest for capital expenditures and appear to be primarily driven by the services sector. Spillover effects are comparatively large, at around 1.8–2.0, highlighting the important role of domestic trade when stimulating regional economic activity.  相似文献   

3.
All quantitative evaluations of fiscal sustainability that include the effects of population ageing must utilize demographic forecasts. It is well known that such forecasts are uncertain, and some studies have taken that into account by using stochastic population projections jointly with economic models. We develop this approach further by introducing regular demographic forecast revisions that are embedded in stochastic population projections. This allows us to separate, for each demographic outcome and under different policy rules, the expected and realized effects of population ageing on public finances. In our Finnish application, demographic uncertainty produces a considerable sustainability risk. We consider policies that reduce the likelihood of getting highly indebted and demonstrate that, although demographic forecasts are uncertain, they contain enough information to be useful in forward-looking policy rules.  相似文献   

4.
In this paper, we propose an empirical model based on the heterogeneous agents literature. Price changes are induced by fundamental, technical, and international factors. The model is estimated for Hong Kong and Thailand surrounding the Asian crisis. We find that the three sources are relevant and that their relative price impact fluctuates conditional on price impact in the previous period. Results imply that the crisis is triggered in Thailand due to an increased focus on the fundamental price, followed by an increase in chartism and finally aggravated by a focus on foreign developments. Furthermore, the crisis deepens in Hong Kong because of increased attention for foreign markets.  相似文献   

5.
Allowing habits to be formed at the level of individual goods – deep habits - can radically alter the fiscal policy transmission mechanism as the counter-cyclicality of mark-ups this implies can result in government spending crowding-in rather than crowding-out private consumption in the short run. We explore the robustness of this mechanism to the existence of price discrimination in the supply of goods to the public and private sectors. We then describe optimal monetary and fiscal policy in our New Keynesian economy subject to the additional externality of deep habits and explore the ability of simple policy rules to mimic fully optimal policy. We find that the presence of deep habits at empirically estimated levels can imply large externalities that significantly affect the conduct of monetary and tax policy. However, despite the rise in government spending multipliers implied by deep habits, government spending is barely used as a stabilisation tool under the optimal policy.  相似文献   

6.
This study evaluates whether India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka minimized the welfare cost of their fiscal policies? For this purpose it tests tax smoothing hypothesis and finds that there is a weak tax smoothing in Pakistan and Sri Lanka whilst fiscal policy in India has not been conducted in an optimal fashion in accordance with the predictions of the hypothesis. The difference in results is due to difference in budget deficits as the deficits of Pakistan and Sri Lanka are higher as compare to India so they are careful to reduce volatility in budget deficits by trying to keep close correspondence between taxes and expenditures while India, with comparatively less deficit, was more careful regarding its debt. Therefore, to minimize the cost a close correspondence between permanent expenditure and taxes are required. In this context the best policy option would be an initiation of prompt action program of tax base expansions and expenditure rationalization.  相似文献   

7.
In a fiscal policy set-up with Ricardian equivalence and rational expectations, the decision-making of private agents is based on the knowledge that current deficits will be met with future tax increases or spending decreases. This view requires that the government's budget exhibit intertemporal balance, or that fiscal policy be sustainable. This paper examines the extent to which sustainability holds in the light of changes in the institutional structure of the budget process and changes in internal House governance rules. The results indicate that certain aspects of sustainability are related to the underlying institutional structure and governance of the budget process. The authors wish to thank the editors and three anonymous referees for their thoughtful comments and suggestions. All remaining errors remain our own.  相似文献   

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While significant work has been done to examine the determinants of regional development, there is little evidence on the role of air services. This paper exploits the large and swift changes to air traffic induced by the 1978 Airline Deregulation Act to identify the link between air traffic and local economic growth. Using data for 263 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) over a two-decade time period, we estimate the effects of airline traffic on local population, income, and employment growth. Our most conservative estimates suggest that a 50-percent increase in an average city’s air traffic growth rate generates an additional stream of income over a 20-year period equal to 7.4 percent of real GDP, the equivalent of $523.3 million in 1978 dollars.  相似文献   

10.
This paper explores economic, political and institutional determinants of discretionary fiscal policy in 11 Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries from 2000 to 2013 and compares discretionary fiscal reactions before and during the global economic crisis. We find that fiscal policy was procyclical to the output gap both before and during the crisis, while no fiscal reaction to the absorption gap was captured. Our results also indicate a negative relationship between the level of public debt and deficits over the entire period and the pre-crisis period, suggesting that rising public debt represented a brake on future deficits. We also find that election cycles affect the fiscal deficit, but only during the pre-crisis period, while no evidence of a relationship between fiscal policy and government fragmentation was captured. We find some evidence that in the pre-crisis period the CEE countries with a fixed exchange rate regime ran lower deficits than those with a floating regime, whereas during the crisis no impact of the exchange rate regime on the fiscal deficit was found. There is also some evidence that an arrangement with the IMF was associated with lower deficits for the entire sample period. However, no impact of EU accession on the fiscal stance was identified.  相似文献   

11.
This paper studies optimal fiscal and monetary policy when the nominal interest rate is subject to the zero lower bound (ZLB) constraint in a stochastic New Keynesian economy. In the baseline model calibrated to match key features of the U.S. economy, it is optimal for the government to increase its spending when at the ZLB in the stochastic environment by about 60 percent more than it would in the deterministic environment. The presence of uncertainty creates a unique time-consistency problem if the steady state is inefficient. Although access to government spending policy increases welfare in the face of a large deflationary shock, it decreases welfare during normal times as the government reduces the nominal interest rate less aggressively before reaching the ZLB.  相似文献   

12.
This paper explores the relationship between the self-declared risk aversion of private investors and their propensity to hold incomplete portfolios of financial assets. The analysis is based on household survey data from the German Socioeconomic Panel (SOEP) that provides a reliable measure of individual attitudes toward financial risk. Our findings suggest that more risk averse households tend to hold incomplete portfolios consisting mainly of a few risk-free assets. We also find that the propensity to acquire additional assets is highly dependent on whether liquidity and safety needs are met.  相似文献   

13.
This paper develops an approach to select models that can make the best use of limited micro-level data sets to estimate production function parameters. Since production is often the core of the agricultural and environment policy analyses, we evaluate the models using criteria that reflect the objectives of policy analysis. We argue that policy production models should optimize the precision of policy response predictions, but also incorporate sufficient heterogeneity to allow policy makers to consider the distributional consequences of policies. Hence we develop a series of quantitative metrics of both precision and heterogeneity to compare model performance. Our approach consists of two steps. We first combine the method of generalized maximum entropy and data envelopment analysis and simultaneously estimate the production frontier and technical inefficiency parameters. With a set of household level data, we estimate production models at three different levels. The province-level model restricts the production technology parameters to be the same for all households. The county-level models allow production technology parameters to vary by county but restrict them to be equal across communities within the same county. The community-level models allow production technology parameters to vary by community. In the second step, we use the disaggregated information gain, percentage absolute prediction error and the Theil??s U statistic to evaluate these models.  相似文献   

14.
This article analyzes the adoption of B2B-e-business technology in German automotive supplier companies during the internet hype period, i.e. in the very early stage of technology diffusion. While from the outset e-business was assumed to be used by companies in order to increase efficiency and reduce costs, some previous IOS research and theoretical considerations suggest that both efficiency and environmental expectations can be important reasons for companies to implement e-business. On this backdrop, the paper analyzes the reasons for e-business technology adoption, focusing on the explanatory value of institutional factors like mimesis, coercion, and normative pressures. Theoretically based hypotheses are developed and tested using regression models with a quantitative data set of more than 1900 companies.The article tries to make an innovative contribution to the field of IOS research, first, by drawing on theories of organizational structuring — new institutionalism, social psychology, and transaction cost economics; second, variation of adoption rationales in different types of companies and different business functions inside a company is taken into account.It appears that the adoption of e-business is explained by external pressures from other customers, bandwagon effects and herding behavior during the e-business hype, and expectations and interests of professionals inside a company. In the ‘core’ areas of a firm, efficiency rationales play an important role, too. The data reveals that the reasons of e-business usage differ significantly by department and company type.  相似文献   

15.
We investigate the effect of monetary policy on stock market bubbles and trading behavior in experimental asset markets. We introduce the possibility of investing in interest bearing bonds to the widely used laboratory asset market design of Smith et al. (1988). Treatment groups face a variable interest rate policy which depends on asset prices, while control groups are subjected to a constant interest rate. We observe a strong impact of our interest rate policy on liquidity in the stock market but only a small impact on bubbles. However, we find that announcing the possibility of reserve requirements significantly reduces bubbles.  相似文献   

16.
This paper re-examines the role of high employment budget expenditures (fiscal policy) in the St. Louis expenditure equation by using spectral analysis and the spectral estimates of a two-sided distributed lag model. The analysis is undertaken with quarterly U.S. data from 1947:1 to 1984:IV in the rate of change form. A salient conclusion is that fiscal policy has statistically significant partial coherences with (nominal) income, with the latter leading the former over the business cycle. We find that income is jointly related to lead terms of fiscal policy in a two-sided distributed lag model. Some explanations for these results are provided.  相似文献   

17.
Cooperative federations are usually characterized by the existence of bailout guarantees and intergovernmental transfer schemes. This paper explores whether such features of cooperative federations lead to subnational soft budget constraints using panel data from the German States covering the 1975-2005 period. The methodology is based on the premise that subnational governments’ borrowing will exhibit vertical and horizontal strategic interactions if they operate under soft budget constraints. Therefore, a test for strategic interactions in subnational borrowing can be used to infer whether a cooperative federation like Germany is susceptible to soft budget constraints. The results suggest that state borrowing in Germany exhibited horizontal but not vertical interactions during the time-frame of the analysis. This indicates (i) that German States faced soft budget constraints and (ii) that they were more concerned about the likelihood of a bailout than about its volume.  相似文献   

18.
This paper examines the extent to which fiscal policy actions affect the stock market's behavior for the US during 1968–2005. The findings are consistent with the hypothesis that past budget deficits negatively affect current stock returns thus suggesting that the market is inefficient with respect to information about future fiscal policy actions. One interpretation of this ‘disturbing’ result is that market participants do not place much faith on news about the budget deficits as they do not believe that deficits could adversely impact the stock market. Instead, what the market considers most important is news about monetary policy.  相似文献   

19.
This study analyzes tax capitalization within the framework of a disequilibrium market model. In particular, this study examines whether local fiscal differentials influence the rate of change in neighborhood house prices over time. Local fiscal differentials existing in 1970 are found to have no influence on the rate of change in neighborhood house prices over the period 1970–1972; therefore, the study concludes that, other things being equal, these local fiscal differentials have been completely capitalized in price levels.  相似文献   

20.
Norwegian local governments that violate the balanced budget rule are placed in a register. The consequence of being in the register is that the budget and resolutions to raise new loans must be approved by the county governor, the central government’s representative in the county. Local governments in the register are subject to stronger central government control and must tighten their budgetary policy in order to be removed from the register. The findings suggest that local governments in the register improve their operating surplus, mainly due to cost reductions.  相似文献   

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