From metaphoric litany text to scenarios—How to use metaphors in futures studies

Metaphor and metonymy belong to the key concepts of semiotics and general linguistics. As illustrations of scenarios, metaphors already have a long history in the futures studies, too. Metaphors were discussed in the CLA Reader 1.0¹ (Inayatullah ed., 2004) but the CLA Reader 2.0 edited by Inayatullah and Milojevic (2015) gives metaphors the central role in futures research² that they deserve. The article compares the approaches of semiotics and the CLA and suggests practical steps for the analysis of metaphoric futures oriented texts and their use in the construction of scenarios. Assuming that the litany is a text, metaphors may be present on all levels of the CLA: litany, systemic causes, worldview and myth/emotion. Metaphors are suitable even for the illustration of the CLA second level quantitative causal relations between variables. As an illustrating case study, we analyze a text that suggests the great future of the Northern Sea Route. The deconstruction of the litany results in two narratives or scenarios. They are constructed utilizing proverbs and other metaphoric sayings that get many citations on the Internet.     

Policy metaphors: From the tuberculosis crusade to the obesity apocalypse

In this paper we examine the conceptual and political work that metaphors do, with particular regard to how they construct problems and thus in turn limit the range of solutions.¹ Common metaphors in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom and Australia are examined (war, disease and crime metaphors, and the economy and nation as a body) by analysing historical and modern texts about the policy issues of tuberculosis, immigration, asylum seeking, welfare, obesity and food insecurity. Through this we show that metaphors, in conjunction with discourses, may work to: naturalise and privilege certain constructions of problems; attribute blame and responsibility; support claims about the urgency and extent of required intervention (and who should deliver it, to whom and how); influence the identification and consideration of solutions by constructing the problem in particular ways; intentionally or unintentionally result in stigmatisation and non-trivial discrimination (social and workplace); and erase or highlight the role of actors, processes, social relations and systems. Vallis has developed the analysis, the bulk of the paper, and Inayatullah has articulated the theoretical links to causal layered analaysis (CLA). While there are multiple ways to use CLA, in this paper we use CLA to map a number of issues accross perspectives and frames, and to deconstruct creating the possibility for alternative futures. We do not explore alternative or preferred futures.     

Scenarios as a scholarly methodology to produce “interesting research”

Recent debates identified the insufficient production of “interesting research”, namely research that is innovative and develops theory while being both usable and rigorous. We propose that scenarios methodology as a scholarly form of inquiry is one way in which we can generate “interesting research”. We present and compare how this methodology was used to investigate three research studies: (i) the unfolding of retailing formats in India; (ii) the evolution of migration patterns in Europe and the Mediterranean; and (iii) climate change and regional and urban planning in the Tulum region of the Peninsula of Yucatán. We found that when scenarios are used as a scholarly methodology involving iterations and revisions, they help to challenge existing assumptions, identify novel lines of inquiry, and enable new research opportunities to emerge,—thus opening up a research mode that helps engaged scholars to make sense of and address complex and uncertain contexts and produce interesting findings.     

Reframing long-term controversies in transboundary river management. The intermediate role of puzzling and powering in tackling wicked problems

In this paper we analyze how the process of visioning about ‘wicked’ long-term policy issues developed as a result of co-evolving processes of “framing”, “puzzling” and “powering”. In this article we discuss a case of cross-border joint visioning on multi-purpose land use planning in a multi-stakeholder process on the transboundary river Scheldt, whose estuary is shared by the Netherlands and Belgium, in which three different rounds can be distinguished, showing a different logic to organizing the processes of framing, puzzling and powering when the focus on the long term diminishes. This analysis helps us move beyond an often naïve perspective of beyond multi-stakeholder processes. We conclude that productive interaction between framing, puzzling and powering is more easily realized in situations of drafting a long-term vision, compared to situations in which long-term visions have to be translated in shorter-run implementation projects.     

Metaphors,semiotics and futures studies

Metaphor belongs to key concepts of semiotics. I have made my career in the field of semiotics and I appreciate the possibility to tell to the scientific community of futurists how a semiotician sees the various functions of metaphors and their connections to the future. The edited volume CLA 2.0 (Inayatullah & Milojevic, 2015) shows that in addition to metaphors, many futures researchers have found the general language-based approach of semiotics. The paper deals with three issues: first the theory of metaphors as such, much discussed in the semiotic literature; then what semiotics says about the future; and finally, what kind of semiotics we are considering here. I would propose to scrutinise the problem of metaphors and future in light of my own new theory which I call ‘existential semiotics’.     

Public perceptions of future threats to humanity and different societal responses: A cross-national study

There is growing scientific evidence that humanity faces a number of threats that jeopardize its future. Public perceptions of these threats, both their risks and reactions to them, are important in determining how humanity confronts and addresses the threats. This study investigated the perceived probability of threats to humanity and different responses to them (nihilism, fundamentalism and activism), in four Western nations: the US, UK, Canada and Australia. Overall, a majority (54%) rated the risk of our way of life ending within the next 100 years at 50% or greater, and a quarter (24%) rated the risk of humans being wiped out at 50% or greater. The responses were relatively uniform across countries, age groups, gender and education level, although statistically significant differences exist.Almost 80% agreed “we need to transform our worldview and way of life if we are to create a better future for the world” (activism). About a half agreed that “the world’s future looks grim so we have to focus on looking after ourselves and those we love” (nihilism), and over a third that “we are facing a final conflict between good and evil in the world” (fundamentalism). The findings offer insight into the willingness of humanity to respond to the challenges identified by scientists and warrant increased consideration in scientific and political debate.     

Future for food education of children

Food plays an important role in the daily life and wellbeing of children. Childhood food experiences are important guides to eating behaviour in adults. Food is full of properties that we perceive with our senses of smell, touch, hearing, sight and taste. We live in individual sensory worlds, and our food perception processes are also individual. Children actively investigate food during eating and cooking. By encouraging their excursion into the world of food culture and food activities, we support them in expanding their food preferences. This paper is based on the “Future for food education” workshop in the Future for Food Conference and focuses on the knowledge applied to the sensory-based food education for children. Examples of food education practices from Finland and Denmark are presented. The learning café method was used for the workshop attendees to outline the food education possibilities. The key issues were discussed in groups and included such topics as: “Who should perform the food education activities?” and “Who will benefit in the future from food education?” The workshop presentations and discussions indicate that there is a need for the advancement and research of food education for children.     

Implicit government guarantees and credit ratings

Exploiting the first default of a state-owned enterprise (SOE) in China, we analyze the role of implicit government guarantees in credit ratings. We consider two causes of implicit government guarantees. First, we suggest a “too big to fail” effect by revealing positive associations between credit ratings and issuer size, number of employees and taxes paid. Second, we propose a “government link” effect by showing positive associations between credit ratings and an issuer's state ownership, indicators for SOEs and central SOEs. Importantly, after the first SOE default, both dimensions of implicit government guarantees are weakened when explaining credit rating variations. Extending to analyses of yield spreads, we find that debt pricing relies more on credit ratings after the default event, consistent with bond investors weighing credit ratings more with weakened beliefs in implicit government guarantees. Collectively, our study proposes two dimensions of implicit government guarantees in credit ratings and shows how the initial SOE default significantly changes the role of such guarantees in credit ratings.     

An Integral extension of causal layered analysis

Causal layered analysis (CLA) is a futures method developed by Sohail Inayatullah and since applied by numerous futurists across multiple content areas. The central assumption of CLA is that there are different levels of reality and ways of knowing; beneath the popular conceptions of an issue (the litany) and more academic analysis of systemic causes are deep worldview commitments, discourses, myths and metaphors. This layered understanding of reality initially seems to resonate with ideas from Ken Wilber's Integral Theory, which identifies developmental levels across behavioural, social, psychological and cultural quadrants. On closer inspection, there are some important theoretical and conceptual differences between CLA and Integral Theory; from an Integral perspective, the layers in CLA confuse quadrants, developmental levels and developmental lines. In this paper, I explore these differences in search of a resolution that will allow the fruitful application of CLA within an Integral Futures framework. I find that CLA, as currently conceived, is not an Integral method in its own right. However, CLA has great value for Integral Futures work as a way of drawing attention to the neglected cultural dimension of futures. Further, with some modifications and extensions, a more Integral application of CLA seems possible.     

Linking simulation argument to the AI risk

Metaphysics, future studies, and artificial intelligence (AI) are usually regarded as rather distant, non-intersecting fields. There are, however, interesting points of contact which might highlight some potentially risky aspects of advanced computing technologies. While the original simulation argument of Nick Bostrom was formulated without reference to the enabling AI technologies and accompanying existential risks, I argue that there is an important generic link between the two, whose net effect under a range of plausible scenarios is to reduce the likelihood of our living in a simulation. This has several consequences for risk analysis and risk management, the most important being putting greater priority on confronting “traditional” existential risks, such as those following from the misuse of biotechnology, nuclear winter or supervolcanism. In addition, the present argument demonstrates how – rather counterintuitively – seemingly speculative ontological speculations could, in principle, influence practical decisions on risk mitigation policies.     

Risk(ing) Metaphors

Metaphors appear in almost every realm of our existence permeating even the supposedly “literal" contexts of high-energy physics laboratories and play a central role in defining and organizing both everyday and scientific realities. Metaphors are not an optional literary device but rather enable us to understand and experience one thing in terms of another. They focus our attention upon particular aspects of a thing that we might otherwise overlook and, in doing so, they also deflect our attention from other aspects. In directing and deflecting our attention, metaphors help us to construct our perceptions of reality in particular ways, guide our actions, and are used to frame issues as problems and to assess the feasibility and appropriateness of various possibilities as solutions. Metaphors are also found within the pages of highly technical texts such as The Original Pronouncements produced by the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB). In this paper, I begin to examine more closely the metaphors that the FASB has included in its texts. Specifically, I highlight the many different metaphors that have been used in connection with risk by the FASB. These metaphors have included orientational, attribute, and ontological metaphors. I end by commenting that these metaphors have contributed to the thinkability of risk management and to considerations of risk as an opponent that must and should be confronted and managed. I question the blind spots in our thinking about risk that these metaphors may be creating and perpetuating and suggest how different metaphors might lead to different ways of thinking about risk.     

The Financial Modeling of Property-Casualty Insurance Companies

This paper describes a financial model currently being used by a major U.S. multiline property-casualty insurer. The model, which was first developed for solvency monitoring purposes, is now being employed for a variety of internal management purposes as well, including (1) the allocation of equity to corporate units, thereby allowing measurements of profitability by business segment and policy year, as well as analysis of the progression of “free surplus,” (2) the analysis of major risks–such as inflation risks, interest rate risks, and reserving risks–that have heretofore been difficult to quantify, and (3) consideration of varying scenarios on the company’s financial performance, both of macroeconomic conditions as well as of the insurance environment.

Many aspects of financial modeling do not differ significantly between life and property-casualty insurers, and these are not discussed in the paper. Rather, the paper focuses on the following topics:

1. Surplus allocation and profitability: how economic surplus and the returns on this surplus are determined by line of business, separately for new business and for the runoff of existing business, and how the progression of free surplus is viewed.

2. Multifaceted risks: how to model risks that affect multiple components of the insurer’s operations, such as economic risks and financial risks. The multiple effects of macroeconomic conditions and changing inflation rates on workers’ compensation claim frequencies and severities complicate the basic interest rate path modeling of life insurance products and annuity contracts.

3. Scenario building: how to construct scenarios of macroeconomic conditions or industry cyclical movements to test the resilience of the company to changing external conditions.     

V-Matrix: A wave theory of value creation for big data

This paper examines the “V-Matrix” and provides a wave theory life cycle model of organizations’ adoption of big data. The V-Matrix is based on the big data five “V’s”: Volume, Velocity, Variety, Veracity, and Value and captures and enumerates the different potential states that an organization can go through as part of its adoption and evolution towards big data. We extend the V-Matrix to a state space approach in order to provide a characterization of the adoption of big data technologies in an organization. We develop and use a wave theory of implementation to accommodate a firm’s movement through the V-Matrix. Accordingly, the V-Matrix provides a life cycle model of organizational use of the different aspects of big data. In addition, the model can help organizations’ plan for decision-making use of big data as they anticipate movement from one state to another, as they add big data capabilities. As part of this analysis, the paper examines some of the issues that occur in the different states, including synergies and other issues associated with co-occurrence of different V’s with each other. Finally, this paper integrates the V-Matrix with other data analytic life cycles and examines some of the implications of those models.     

Beyond the Optimistic Curse: A New Multiscenario Approach to Debt Sustainability Assessment

While a careful and accurate debt sustainability assessment (DSA) is crucial for an efficient macroeconomic management, the most widely used framework introduced by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) suffers from several drawbacks that render its results overoptimistic and misleading. In this article, we correct the methodology by demonstrating how policy makers can develop country-specific “intermediate” forecasts of the determinants of debt dynamics, in addition to coherent “optimistic” and “pessimistic” scenarios. Our application to the case of Egypt illustrates that the debt-to-GDP ratio could increase to more than 100 percent by 2015, in contrast with the 61 percent projected by the IMF in 2010.     

Wie man durch Moral ins „Geschäft“ kommt: Ein ordonomischer Beitrag zum betrieblichen Risikomanagement

Through an analysis of Alfred Krupp’s 19th-century social welfare program, this paper develops an ordonomic contribution to corporate risk management. The paper argues that companies can employ ‘morality as a factor of production’ by a differentiated business strategy of moral commitments. In this way, companies can not only considerably reduce their exposure to the undesirable risks of losing core business relationships with important stakeholders. But at the same time, businesses may increase their readiness to take desirable innovation risks that are pivotal for long-term value creation. Ultimately, the paper develops an argument for how companies can better live up to the role of being an agent of societal value creation, often articulated by concepts such as “corporate social responsibility” or “corporate citizenship”.     

A P.D.E. approach to Asian options: analytical and numerical evidence

We first derive a one-state-variable partial differential equation, easy to implement, which characterizes the price of a European type Asian option. This result is explained and related to previous literature. We then derive new results on the hedging of an Asian option and propose analytical and numerical analysis on the comparison between Asian and European options. Our methodology which applies to “fixed-strike” Asian options as well as to “floating-strike” Asian options completes and clarifies various results in the literature. In this paper we focus on “backward-starting” Asian options. Our approach is quite general however, and we explain how to adapt our main results to the case of “forward-starting” Asian options.     

The Primacy of “Present Fairly” in the Auditor's Report*

In this paper, the author examines the historical evolution in the United States of the use of the term “present fairly” in the auditor's report, as well as the experience and arguments in the United States and Canada regarding the use of a “two‐part” opinion in the report. He then develops an argument for the adoption of a “two‐part” opinion, decoupling “present fairly” from conformity with generally accepted accounting principles, which would place primary emphasis on “present fairly".     

DNA Mining and genealogical information systems: Not just for finding family ethnicity

The primary expected use of DNA and genealogy sites has been their ability to help users find their family, find their ethnicity and to help them connect with distant relatives. In so doing such sites help users to “learn more about themselves.” Such systems have also been proposed to have the broader goals of helping connect mankind and show people how their similarities are greater than their differences. However, the use of DNA and genealogy information recently turned away from just finding family connections, ethnicity and origins. Recently it was announced that the “Golden State Killer” had been caught using information generated from using DNA and consumer genealogical websites. This paper investigates some of the questions and unanticipated consequences raised by this alternative use of these technologies and their impact on individuals, organizations and society. As part of that analysis we analyze some of the immediate consequences on the firm from which the DNA information was gathered, the new emerging approach used by law enforcement, some privacy concerns and provide a network game formulation as a means to model user behavior. Finally, we examine some potential emerging research issues.     

上市企业员工满意度与创新——来自“中国年度最佳雇主100强”的经验证据

本文以2011－2017年沪深两市的A股上市企业为研究对象,以是否入选“中国年度最佳雇主100强”榜单衡量上市企业的员工满意度,考察员工满意度对企业创新的影响。研究表明,入选榜单的企业平均而言比其它主要特征相似的匹配企业的专利申请总数高约47%。这一效应主要体现在发明专利和实用新型专利上,而在外观设计专利上不显著。进一步地,员工满意度可以通过提高失败容忍度来提升企业创新。最后,经济后果检验表明,员工满意度的提高可以显著提升员工的创新效率和企业全要素生产率,说明较高的员工满意度有助于企业效率和长期价值的提升。