人口规模与城市轨道交通的治堵效应

利用高德地图发布的道路交通拥堵延时指数大数据,结合断点回归方法,对全国省会城市2015年10月至2018年9月新开通的40多条轨道交通线路进行了分析。结果显示:轨道交通虽能缓解城市道路交通的拥堵状况,但效果并不明显,存在着异质性影响;常住人口在600万至900万人的城市新增轨道交通的治堵效应显著,不足600万人及超过900万人的城市,治堵效应不显著。进一步研究发现,造成治堵效应异质性及总体不显著的原因在于,地方政府兴建轨道交通的决策机制造成了站点布局、通车里程与出行总需求之间的错配。     

The role of a firm's absorptive capacity and the technology transfer process in clusters: How effective are technology centres in low-tech clusters?

Due to its unique political institutions and good economic track record, Switzerland used to be called a special case. This paper investigates the start-up propensities in this country based on the individual data of the adult population survey of the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor. The focus is on the factors that are distinctive for Switzerland: language differences and differences in taxes on corporate profit and personal income. There are substantial entrepreneurship disparities among the language areas of Switzerland. Still, I do not find evidence for a cultural influence. The different start-up propensities in the three language areas can be explained by structural characteristics of the regional economy. The same applies to differences in income and profit taxes. If other regional factors are taken into account, I do not find evidence for a direct influence of taxes on the entrepreneurial propensity of the inhabitants of Swiss regions. There is however some evidence for indirect effects. This paper adds to our understanding of the effects of culture and tax differences on entrepreneurship.     

Urban structure,gas prices,and the demand for transportation

This paper investigates how the characteristics of demand for space help determine the response of aggregate automobile mileage to increased gasoline prices. A typical monocentric model is considered in which household heads commute to work at the center of city. Precise results are derived under the assumption that all households have the same income and that transportation is a small item in the typical budget. Finally, a numerical projection is made based on estimates of the relevant parameters.     

How should heavy-duty trucks be taxed?

This paper develops and implements an analytical framework for estimating optimal taxes on the fuel use and mileage of heavy-duty trucks in the United States, accounting for external costs from congestion, accidents, pavement damage, noise, energy security, and local and global pollution. The analysis allows for endogenous fuel economy, increased auto travel in response to reduced truck congestion, and distinguishes driving by truck type and region. We estimate the optimal (second-best) diesel fuel tax at $1.12 per gallon and implementing it increases welfare by $1.34 billion per annum. Optimizing over both fuel and mileage taxes, and differentiating mileage taxes by vehicle type and region, yields progressively higher welfare gains. The most efficient tax structure involves a diesel fuel tax of 69 cents per gallon and charges on trucks that vary between 7 and 33 cents per mile; implementing this tax structure yields estimated welfare gains of $2.06 billion.     

Quantifying entrepreneurship and its impact on local economic performance: A spatial assessment in rural Switzerland

Regional and rural development policies in Europe increasingly emphasize entrepreneurship to mobilize the endogenous economic potential of rural territories. This study develops a concept to quantify entrepreneurship as place-dependent local potential to examine its impact on the local economic performance of rural territories in Switzerland. The short-to-medium-term impact of entrepreneurship on the economic performance of 1706 rural municipalities in Switzerland is assessed by applying three spatial random effects models. Results suggest a generally positive relationship between entrepreneurship and local development: rural municipalities with higher entrepreneurial potential generally show higher business tax revenues per capita and a lower share of social welfare cases among the population, although the impact on local employment is less clear. The explanatory power of entrepreneurship in all three models, however, was only moderate. This finding suggests that political expectations of fostering entrepreneurship to boost endogenous rural development in the short-to-medium term should be damped.     

交通运输业与经济增长的实证研究——以河南省为例

以交通运输与区域经济发展理论为依据,基于河南交通运输业和经济发展的数据,做出了河南省交通运输业发展与经济增长的趋势分析,为河南发展交通运输业找出了发展方向,并应用协整理论对河南GDP和多种运输方式的客、货运周转量进行检验,得出了各种运输方式对经济发展的贡献率;另外还使用格兰杰因果关系检验得出河南省应当继续加快经济发展,促进交通运输业的发展。     

安徽省际铁路货物运输双向流动差异研究

安徽省际铁路运输流量具有显著的地域选择性。集中流向的省份既取决于其经济发展水平．也取决于运输网络的完善程度、运营里程以及多种运输方式的相互替代程度。以安徽省际铁路运输数据为基础数据源,以安徽省为主体研究对象,探讨安徽省际铁路货物流量与流向差异的特征、成因,从而提出优化空间格局的基本策略。     

Using input–output models to estimate sectoral effects of carbon tax policy: Applications of the NGFS scenarios

The Network of Central Banks and Supervisors for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) has engaged in scenario analysis that estimates a $200/ton carbon tax would be required to transition to net zero carbon by 2050. Using a $200/ton carbon tax as a base, this paper uses input–output (IO) modeling to generate price and revenue effects of a carbon tax. Results from these models, which can only be interpreted as the short-run, upper-bound effects of the carbon tax policy, imply that in response to a $200/ton tax on CO₂e emissions, carbon-intensive industries, such as agriculture, extraction, transportation, utilities, and chemicals, may experience price increases in the range of 10-30 percent. Other industries will also experience price increases, but to a lesser degree, due to increased input costs associated with the tax. In addition, modeling results also suggest that industries facing elastic pricing regimes may face similar-sized declines in revenues as a consequence of the carbon tax. Rank-ordered impact results from these models can be utilized by bank supervisors and firms to adequately plan for sectoral-level transition risk within their lending and/or investment portfolios.     

A statistical test of the stability assumption inherent in empirical estimates of economic depreciation.

Realistic estimates of economic depreciation are required for analyses of tax policy, economic growth and production, and national income and wealth. THe purpose of this paper is to examine the stability assumption underlying the econometric derivation of empirical estimates of economic depreciation for industrial machinery and and equipment. The results suggest that a reasonable stability of economic depreciation rates of decline may exist over time. Thus, the assumption of a constant rate of economic depreciation may be a reasonable approximation for further empirical economic analyses.     

交通行政职能转变与行业协会的发展

随着社会主义市场经济体制的建立,转变交通行政职能,发展中介组织已成为市场经济发展和机构改革的迫切需要。随着交通行政职能的转变,行业协会的作用越来越明显。基于行业协会的职能及地位,本文提出了我国交通行业协会存在的问题,并对大力发展交通行业协会提出一些对策建议,为深化机构改革,加快交通行政职能转变提供一些参考。     

国外汽车共享服务的理论与实践

汽车共享服务是介于私家车和公共交通之间的交通创新方式,它有利于减少交通流量,减少大气污染,提高交通时效,因此已在瑞士、德国、美国、加拿大、新加坡、日本等国家悄然兴起.我国人多地少,人均能源贫乏,应该研究和逐步推广汽车共享服务,使之成为现有公共交通工具的补充形式.     

城市经济与交通结构互动关系研究

经济总量和居民收入的提高,一方面为城市加快交通建设提供了必要的物质基础:另一方面也引发交通需求在数量和质量上均发生了深刻的变化。现阶段居民用于交通方面的支出逐年提高,通勤以外非基本出行的需求迅速增加,对交通服务的要求也越来越高。本文通过对经济发展与私人交通、经济发展与公共交通两方面阐明城市经济与交通结构的互动关系,为寻求城市发展与交通发展之间的协调机制,逐步建立适宜的交通结构目标奠定理论基础和可能的技术途径。     

Property tax and urban sprawl: Theory and implications for US cities

We develop a model that adopts a log-linear utility function with a variable elasticity of substitution greater than one and show that increasing the property tax reduces city size unambiguously. We then test this result using a dataset of effective property tax rates we developed using GIS methods for 448 urbanized areas. The empirical analysis estimates a regression equation relating an urbanized area's size to the property tax rate measure and other control variables such as population, income, agricultural rent, and transportation expenditure. We find that higher property taxes indeed result in smaller cities.     

Principles of controlling traffic noise : Solving a multi-objective decision problem

The main objectives for a government to control traffic noise are such as economic efficiency, a reasonable welfare distribution and acceptable noise standards. The instruments available for arriving at these objectives are traffic control, emission regulation and environment protection. This paper analyzes how to make trade-offs between such objectives and how to choose a combination of noise control instruments. Special attention is then made to one welfare distribution objective, namely the ‘polluters-pay-principle’. That principle demands using the vehicle tax to finance investments to protect environment. And in order to stimulate the development of less noisy vehicles such a tax has to be progressively increased for noisy cars. The analysis is demonstrated on the situation of Sweden where a differentiation of norms as well as of vehicle taxes is proposed.     

NONLINEAR GROWTH EFFECTS OF TAXATION: A SEMI‐PARAMETRIC APPROACH USING AVERAGE MARGINAL TAX RATES

One of the major challenges of empirical tax research is the identification and calculation of appropriate tax data. While there is consensus that average marginal tax rates are most suitable for studying the effects of tax policy on economic growth, because of data limitations the calculation of marginal tax rates has been limited to the USA and the UK. This paper provides calculations of average marginal tax rates for the four Scandinavian countries using the methodologies of Seater (1982, 1985) and Barro and Sahasakul (1983, 1986). Then, by pooling the newly calculated tax rates for the Scandinavian countries with the data for the USA and the UK, we investigate the effects of tax policy shocks on the per capita GDP growth rate. Our results suggest that an increase in average marginal tax rates has a negative impact on economic growth. Employing additive mixed panel models with penalized splines as estimation approach, we show that changes in tax rates have nonlinear effects. Increasing average marginal tax rates turn out to be the most distorting at relatively moderate tax rates. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Travel time and transportation policy

This paper examines the relationship between traffic congestion and travel time. A model is developed where both travel time and the number of peak-hour trips are simultaneously determined. The model is estimated by two-stage least squares using traffic data from the Boston metropolitan area. The estimates are used to generate implications for transportation policy. The paper suggests that commuters are substantially more responsive to changes in travel time than to changes in price.     

Air service and urban growth: Evidence from a quasi-natural policy experiment

While significant work has been done to examine the determinants of regional development, there is little evidence on the role of air services. This paper exploits the large and swift changes to air traffic induced by the 1978 Airline Deregulation Act to identify the link between air traffic and local economic growth. Using data for 263 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) over a two-decade time period, we estimate the effects of airline traffic on local population, income, and employment growth. Our most conservative estimates suggest that a 50-percent increase in an average city’s air traffic growth rate generates an additional stream of income over a 20-year period equal to 7.4 percent of real GDP, the equivalent of $523.3 million in 1978 dollars.     

Is transportation improving urbanization in China?

This study applies the rolling-window causality test to analyze the interaction between transportation infrastructure and urbanization in China. Our results obviously support search-matching theory in that transportation infrastructure exerts positive effects on urbanization in sub-sample periods. Urbanization does not Granger cause transportation infrastructure development except for the 1977–1980 period, when urbanization exerted negative effects on transportation infrastructure. The transportation structure is inadequate, and rational allocation of transportation resources is needed to improve the level of urbanization. This means that transportation improves urbanization due to government investment and regional integration. Development of transportation infrastructure has been rapid, which improved urbanization during the Great Cultural Revolution period. Urbanization urgently needs to keep up with the development of traffic infrastructure construction by adding to traffic investment. Transportation infrastructure requires whole planning, a unified layout, and rational adjustment of the transportation structure.     

Macroeconomic effects of R&D tax credits on small and medium enterprises

Research and development (R&D) is regarded as a core factor for the long-run performance of both large enterprises (LEs) and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). This paper analyzes the economic effects of R&D tax credits by firm size. It mainly aims to compare the results of tax policies oriented towards LEs to those towards SMEs. In order to estimate the impact numerically, we use a computable general equilibrium model, which incorporates some essential characteristics of knowledge. First, we introduce a social accounting matrix that differentiates between SMEs and LEs in manufacturing industries. Then, a knowledge-based macroeconomic model estimates outcomes for policy scenarios regarding tax incentives. The results show that SMEs support more rapid growth than do LEs when the same volume of tax credits is offered to both enterprise types. We suggest that the intensity of knowledge spillovers induced by SMEs is driving this result.     

厦门经济特区扩容背景下的城市交通战略规划探讨

在国务院批准厦门经济特区扩大到全市的背景下,结合分析厦门城市近年来交通现状的基础上,紧紧围绕“全城厦门的理念统筹城乡交通战略规划,积极推进岛内岛外交通一体化建设,构筑以公共交通为主体的可持续城市交通发展模式.