Food in the future: Does futures studies have a role to play?

Futures studies (FS) has not taken up food as a topic to any degree perhaps because of complexity, gender, urban bias, professional bias, cultural diversity, and fear. But there is a need and responsibility for FS scholars and practitioners to consider the growing and preparation of food in our work. Today's movements in food security, organic farming and Slowfood can direct us towards futures based in healthy, diverse, and joyful communities.     

How do commodity futures respond to macroeconomic news?

This paper investigates the impact of seventeen US macroeconomic announcements on two broad and representative commodity futures indices. Based on a large sample from 1989 to 2005, we show that the daily price response of the CRB and GSCI commodity futures indices to macroeconomic news is state-dependent. During recessions, news about higher (lower) inflation and real activity lead to positive (negative) adjustments of commodity futures prices. In contrast, we find no significant reactions during economic expansions. We attribute this asymmetric response to the state-dependent interpretation of macroeconomic news. Our findings are robust to several alternative business cycle definitions.

Activity in futures: does underlying market size relate to futures trading volume?

This study investigates the determinants of trading volume in the futures markets and focuses on underlying market characteristics as an explanation for futures trading volume. Four major futures contracts traded on the Sydney Futures Exchange are investigated: the stock price index (SPI); the 90-day bank accepted bill (BAB); the 3-year bond; and the 10-year bond. An important outcome of this study is an identification of the fundamental drivers of trading volume in the futures markets, which have largely gone undocumented in prior research. We find evidence that futures trading volume is related to underlying market characteristics: the size of the Australian superannuation fund investments in equities (for the SPI), short term treasury notes (for the BAB), non-government bonds on issue (for the 3-year contract) and government bonds on issue (for the 10-year contract).     

How to Weigh Unemployment Relative to Inflation in Monetary Policy?

The monetary policy mandate for the Federal Reserve and of the Riksbank are essentially the same and boil down to stabilizing inflation around the inflation target and employment or unemployment around a long‐run sustainable rate. The relative weight on stabilizing unemployment or employment versus stabilizing inflation may be close to one. A positive unemployment‐gap forecast normally calls for a positive inflation‐gap forecast.     

How do risk attitudes of clearing firms matter for managing default exposure in futures markets?

This article proposes a theoretical framework that is built upon extreme value theory to study three instruments (i.e. margin, capital requirement and price limits) for managing default risk in futures markets. Specifically, the exceedances over a price threshold are modeled using a generalized Pareto distribution, and the models are static (one-period). We incorporate the risk attitudes of clearing firms into the framework to investigate the efficacy of these instruments under several risk measures, including value-at-risk measures, expected-shortfall measures and spectral risk measures. An empirical study on the VIX futures (or VX) data shows that the effectiveness of these market instruments rests not only on clearing firms' risk attitudes, but also on the tail fatness of the futures price distribution. Moreover, the shift in the risk attitudes of clearing firms may cause interactions among these instruments, which casts new light on the economic rationale of price limits.     

The Namesake: Futures; futures studies; futurology; futuristic; foresight—What's in a name?

The term we used to describe the study of alternative futures is important. Disciplines and discourses do not emerge from a vacuum but have a history and a cultural context; and their names can hide as much as they reveal. This paper examines such terms as ‘futurology’ and ‘foresight’, and argues that to emphasise plurality and diversity the study of the future is best served by the moniker ‘futures studies’. It suggests that remembering the history of futures discourse is necessary to resolve the crisis of identity and meaning, and frequent fruitless reinvention, of the field. Finally, it presents Sardar's four laws of futures studies: futures studies are wicked (they deal largely with complex, interconnected problems), MAD (emphasise Mutually Assured Diversity), sceptical (question dominant axioms and assumptions) and futureless (bear fruit largely in the present).     

How managers use culture and controls to impose a ‘996’ work regime in China that constitutes modern slavery

The paper investigates how unrestricted global capitalism and a Confucian culture of hierarchy and obedience combine to create a form of modern slavery in China. The cases cited involve semi-structured interviews with 11 managers and 19 workers working in the hospitality and manufacturing sectors. The interviews are analysed to determine how managers use controls to exploit power/distance, high levels of insecurity, and unenforced labour rights to impose harsh working conditions. Prior research has examined what mechanisms are imposed in a society that retains a Confucian legacy of obedience but not ‘how’ they are imposed in a way that constitutes a form of modern slavery.     

How fast to run in the Red Queen race?

This paper creates a market ecosystem, via an agent‐based model, that combines the dynamic features of the Red Queen effect with well‐accepted business world performance indicators. Essentially, firms are tasked with remaining ‘alive’ by adapting to their environment through implementing a competitive response of innovating or imitating. An analysis of the firms’ behaviours delivers a deep understanding of the drivers of innovative behaviour within the economy. The key findings of the paper are (1) that concentrated markets are not entirely detrimental to innovative behaviour, with the blend of firm type being a more important consideration, and (2) that the rate at which an innovation impairs existing markets affects the activity levels of the firms within the population. The model's results are validated against a matching study based on real‐world data.     

How to Evaluate Risk Management Units in Financial Institutions?

Based on the existing Enterprise Risk Management framework and current government regulations, “banks are required to establish risk management units (RMUs) to review and evaluate their risks, monitor them, and to advise top management.” Currently an integral part of the risk governance and management process, RMUs in financial institutions have become increasingly important since the 2007–2008 financial crisis. This article details the authors' creation of an index to evaluate the performance of risk management units in financial institutions, and then examines some of their findings. The index transforms twelve parameters into a simple and convenient index that isolates the RMU's activities from the rest of the organizational risk management process, its risk preferences and the activities of the rest of the units. The index's parameters are divided into three dimensions of the RMU's performance: professionalism, organizational status and relationship with top management and the board. The authors found a positive relationship between their RMUI and some important risk governance characteristics: CROs who are among the five highest paid executives at the bank, banks with at least one independent director serving on the board's risk committee having banking and finance experience and boards with greater efficacy.     

How do politicians shape and use budgets to govern public sector organizations? A position-practice approach

This paper examines politicians’ influence on budgets in governing public sector organizations. Theoretical reasoning is based on the position-practice concept applied in structuration theory. Research took place in a hospital district in Finland from 2009 to 2015. The findings show that politicians set coercive budgetary policies, but there was no direct relationship between budgets and actual medical practices. As a result, the budget was simply a ‘ceremonial’ tool of political governance, as medical professionals concentrate on delivering healthcare services.     

Do the prices of stock index futures in Asia overreact to U.S. market returns?

We extend the overreaction study to interaction of international markets and find that intraday price reversals exist in Asian index futures markets following extreme movement in U.S. market. Profitable opportunities exist after considering transaction cost. We show that the reversal cannot be explained by rational arguments such as risk, liquidity and bid-ask spread. We further observe that a magnitude effect exists. Overreaction is more prominent in the latter period than in the initial period. After calm-down periods, overreaction is greatly reduced. These observations support the explanation that the source of price reversals lies in behavioral biases.     

Internal or external control? How to respond to credit risk contagion in complex enterprises network

This study investigates whether and how the two risk control strategies inhibit credit risk contagion among enterprises in the network. Learning from the corporate governance of enterprises, we propose internal and external strategies, respectively. Moreover, two improved epidemic models containing internal and external strategies strategy are established to investigate the impact of the two strategies on the risk contagion. The control effect of internal and external strategies is compared through simulation analysis. The results indicate that the enterprise's financial health, the cost and ability to apply the strategies are important factors affecting the control effect of strategies. For enterprises with general financial status (susceptible enterprise), when the costs of the two strategies are the same, they should choose external strategies. For enterprises with good financial status (immune enterprises), the external strategy is a more sensible choice. Our study provides new insights into controlling risk contagion in enterprise networks.     

How did the Welsh government manage to reform council tax in 2005?

Repeated calls have been made for council tax (CT) in the UK to be reformed. A ‘tyranny of the status quo’ suggests that politicians will avoid this because they fear a backlash from the losers of reform. This paper claims that the tyranny of the status quo is not a fixed law. The Welsh government revalued CT in 2005 but did not communicate the complexity of reform sufficiently. Reform requires greater efforts to communicate the complexity of winning and losing.     

Antecedents and outcomes relating to public and private nurses’ use of intuition in England

This paper examines public and private sector nurses’ use of intuition in England using structural equation modeling. Leader–member exchange (LMX) and perceived organizational support (POS) correlated positively with nurses’ perception of discretionary power and use of intuition. Nurses’ perception of discretionary power and use of intuition were positively correlated with their engagement. Further, differences were identified between private sector and public sector nurses in relation to the impact of workplace relationships (POS and LMX) and intuition onto perceived discretionary power and employee engagement. The results are important for all hospital managers seeking to foster employees’ use of intuition, perception of discretionary power, and engagement.     

How do lending relationships affect access to credit and loan conditions in microlending?

A key problem facing microlenders is the high level of information asymmetry between them and their borrowers. In this paper, we analyze whether the relationship intensity between microlenders and borrowers helps to overcome existing information asymmetries and how this impacts access to credit and loan contract terms. Using a rich loan-level data set provided by a microlender in Mozambique for the years 2000-2006, we find that access to credit improves and that the loan approval process takes less time when relationships become more intense. Borrowers further profit from a more intense relationship through lower guarantee requirements. All effects are more pronounced the more opaque the borrowers are. These results suggest that longer lending relationships indeed help to reduce information asymmetries and that this is beneficial for microborrowers.     

How do low-income enrollees in the Affordable Care Act marketplaces respond to cost-sharing?

The Affordable Care Act requires insurers to offer cost-sharing reductions (CSRs) to low-income consumers on the marketplaces. We link 2013–2015 All-Payer Claims Data to 2004–2013 administrative hospital discharge data from Utah and exploit policy-driven differences in the actuarial value of CSR plans that are solely determined by income. This allows us to examine the effect of cost-sharing on medical spending among low-income individuals. We find that enrollees facing lower levels of cost-sharing have higher levels of healthcare spending, controlling for past healthcare use. We estimate demand elasticities of total health care spending among this low-income population of approximately −0.12, suggesting that demand-side price mechanisms in health insurance design work similarly for low-income and higher-income individuals. We also find that cost-sharing subsidies substantially lower out-of-pocket medical care spending, showing that the CSR program is a key mechanism for making health care affordable to low-income individuals.     

How to trust? The importance of self‐efficacy and social trust in public responses to industrial risks

Although a great deal of research has linked both self‐efficacy and social trust to risk responses, one overlooked question concerns the association between self‐efficacy and institutional trust. The purpose of this study was to investigate the main and combined effects of trust in the self and trust in responsible agencies to affective responses and information sufficiency. Survey respondents in this study were placed into one of four categories based on their levels of self‐efficacy (high/low) and social trust (high/low), including confidence, independence, dependence and insecure groups. Based on survey data (n = 466), the accuracy of the four‐group classification was tested. Indeed, we found that our classification system correlated with responses. Both self‐efficacy and institutional trust were found to contribute to emotional risk responses, as well as risk information needs and preferences for risk information.