首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
相似文献
 共查询到20条相似文献,搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
    
This paper elaborates the state of Future in International Relations from a comparative theoretical perspective with regard to the selected methodological tools of Futures Studies. It, first, looks into the development of International Relations and Futures Studies to point out, how their contextual, conceptual and epistemological similarities and dissimilarities emerged in due course. It, then, analyses to what extent the methodological differences between selected Futures Studies techniques (e.g. forecasting, trend analysis, Delphi, backcasting, causal layered analysis and integral futures approach) intersect with the conceptual and normative differences between contemporary theories of International Relations stemming from Realism, Liberalism, Constructivism, Post-structuralism, Normative Theory and Critical Theory. The paper characterizes the relevant futures techniques with reference to the theories of International Relations, and scrutinizes selected futuristic narratives of International Relations from a methodological perspective. It, then, elaborates how Futures Studies and International Relations can benefit from each other’s strengths in terms of their methodologies and assumptions. The article finally explores to what extent the promises of Futures Studies techniques conjure up a convergence between different theories of International Relations.  相似文献   

2.
基于IFCD指标体系的国际金融中心发展研究   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
IFCD指标体系是全面、综合、科学分析金融中心排名的指标体系。通过运用IFCD指标体系,我们可以比较不同金融中心的竞争力,从而更好地预测金融中心的发展潜力,规划金融中心的发展方向。近年来,上海国际金融中心建设取得了长足的进步,然而距离成熟发达金融中心,上海还有很长的路要走。上海的国际金融中心建设任重而道远。  相似文献   

3.
This paper reviews the special issue “Policy Implications of and Lessons from the Global Financial Crisis,” and its themes: Global liquidity and the use of international reserves; real and financial economic patterns before and during the global financial crisis.  相似文献   

4.
Ming-Wen Hu 《Futures》2003,35(4):379-392
This study focuses on small business in Taiwan. It first discusses the most important features that modern small firms provide, how they are involved in the growing integrated world economy, and the recent rising trends in the number of small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs). This trend, which follows an earlier decrease is further investigated in the context of the Taiwan economy. Finally, three conditions of Taiwan’s successful small firm sector are discussed: appropriate policy, global involvement, and entrepreneurship. Alternative small business futures depend on the conditions that encourage the development of SMEs. In one scenario, where SMEs can find the niche markets quickly, and enhance their expertise in logistics, a rise in SMEs in the global market may be expected. In another scenario, if SMEs fail in forming alliances and networks when confronting with giant firms or large Foreign Direct Investment, there might be a reduction in enterprising behavior. Judging from the former performance of Taiwan’s SMEs, it can be concluded that there is a good chance that SMEs will remain a vibrant and important participant of its economy and the world economy in the future.  相似文献   

5.
国际板建设的理论、制度和操作层面障碍   总被引:8,自引:0,他引:8  
本文讨论了国际板建设涉及的三方面的理论问题,以及五个具体操作层面的问题。这三个方面的关系问题是国际板与香港国际金融中心的地位关系问题、国际板与外汇管理制度的关系问题以及国际板与国内板的关系问题。五个方面具体操作层面的问题包括国际板的保荐、发行和审批流程问题、国际板的招股书披露要求问题、国际板的适用财务准则问题、国际板的上市规则问题以及国际板的公司治理问题。  相似文献   

6.
    
This paper examines the effect of hedging demand by various types of institutional investor on subsequent returns and volatility. Using data from the Taiwan Futures Exchange, empirical results indicate that the hedging demand of foreign investors has a significant negative impact on subsequent returns and volatility. In addition, trading strategies based on the extreme hedging demand of foreigners are positively correlated with trading performance. Furthermore, there is evidence to show that returns (volatility) also affect the subsequent hedging demand of foreign investors, suggesting a feedback relation. Finally, the hedging demand of foreign investors has a greater impact on subsequent returns and volatility after global financial turmoil. Accordingly, this paper concludes that foreign investors are informed hedgers in the Taiwan futures market, especially after global financial turmoil.  相似文献   

7.
    
We comparatively assess the influence of global economic uncertainty measures on Chinese stock market volatility. Using a model based on generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and mixed-data sampling, the results show that the global economic policy uncertainty index, the geopolitical risk index, and the global economic condition index all significantly influence the long-term volatility of China’s equity market. We highlight which of these measures has the most explanatory power under differing contexts. As uncertainty measures have wide applicability, investors, policymakers, and academicians will be quite interested in our results.  相似文献   

8.
随着我国外汇储备规模不断扩大,设立主权财富基金成为我国政府寻求积极外汇管理的一种重要方式,同时也牵涉到诸多复杂的政治经济问题。2007年9月成立的中国投资责任有限公司标志着我国主权财富基金的成立,但成立之初公司定位尚不明确,同时面临着全球范围内的投资策略选择及西方国家的"主权基金威胁论"等诸多挑战。本文从国际经济和国际政治的双重角度讨论了我国主权财富基金在当前国际关系格局中面临的挑战,并提出定位于商业化和市场化运作、坚持多元化投资策略、坚持经济收益和政治收益的统一、广募贤才与投资外包并施、多拳出击打消国际政治阻力等发展对策。  相似文献   

9.
The view of the authors is that, in response to challenges created in many countries by the coexistence of communities of different origins and cultures, living together in peace requires a capacity to learn together and to navigate a plurality of cultures but also a plurality of futures.To explore this idea, a research has been conducted to identify future-oriented methodologies that can sustain activities in such fields as the culture of peace and global citizenship education. Such methodologies as Causal Layered Analysis, the Sarkar game, Transformative Scenario Planning and the framework of Futures Literacy are examined in relation to their added value for intercultural competences. The paper finishes on the presentation and analysis of a case study on a foresight participative workshop held with young people in Africa.The four methodologies and the case study presented in this paper provide, in our view, a strong impetus to further explore spaces where intercultural competences and the discipline of anticipation can be hybridized. Such hybridity seems to correspond to what is required of citizens in a globalizing world where solutions must not only be based on long term perspectives but also be shared across national, cultural, ethnic or religious boundaries.  相似文献   

10.
We seek to understand the ever-increasing push towards the international harmonization of accounting standards and particularly the inexorable rise of standards produced by the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB). While the primary justifications for the increasing recognition given to these standards (IFRS) are economic, we question whether the empirical evidence to date has yielded convincing support for these arguments. We therefore offer an alternative explanation for the origin and diffusion of IFRS that incorporates social and political factors. Outsourcing the manufacture of accounting standards to a single private agency appears to be a rational, lower cost option – lowering both economic and political costs for individual states as long as they continue to retain residual decision rights with respect to the adoption of IFRS. However, such outsourcing must also be perceived to be legitimate. IFRS confer institutionalized legitimacy because they possess three characteristics required of a technology for global governance. These are sponsorship by powerful interest groups/regulators, internationality and plasticity. We therefore conclude that the widespread diffusion today of IFRS can at best be only partially explained as an economically rational phenomenon. Rather, the demand for legitimate action in the face of tightly coupled and complex global markets is at least equally important in generating support for IFRS.  相似文献   

11.
Given the recent growth in the American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) and the current general climate of globalization in world equity exchanges, this paper investigates the ADRs as a distinct group of stocks within the framework of momentum and contrarian strategies. It considers the entire body of the level III ADRs from January 1982 to December 2005 and provides an analysis of their performance under various momentum and contrarian strategies. The methodology that is employed draws upon and is an extension of Lo and Mackinlay [Lo, Andrew W. and A. Craig MacKinlay, 1990. When are contrarian profits due to stock market overreaction? Review of Financial Studies, v3 (2), 175–206.] and Jegadeesh and Titman [Jegadeesh, Narasimhan and Sheridan Titman, 2001. Profitability of momentum strategies: An evaluation of alternative explanations, Journal of Finance, v56 (2, Apr), 699–720.]. The results indicate considerable support for the presence of the momentum and contrarian strategies in the ADRs market. The profitability of such strategies obviously runs counter to the efficient market hypothesis. These issues are elaborated upon and suggestions for further research are offered.  相似文献   

12.
    
We employ a structural global VAR model to analyze whether U.S. unconventional monetary policy shocks, identified through changes in the central bank’s balance sheet, have an impact on financial and economic conditions in emerging market economies (EMEs). Moreover, we study whether international capital flows are an important channel of shock transmission. We find that an expansionary policy shock significantly increases portfolio flows from the U.S. to EMEs for almost two quarters, accompanied by a persistent movement in real and financial variables in recipient countries. Moreover, EMEs on average respond to the shock with an easing of their own monetary policy stance. The findings appear to be independent of heterogeneous country characteristics like the underlying exchange rate arrangement, the quality of institutions, or the degree of financial openness.  相似文献   

13.
    
In this paper we study the relationship between foreign currency international reserve holdings and global interest rates. To guide empirical work we solve a simple, small open-economy model with money, where the central bank manages international reserves to smooth inflation over time. This model shows that changes in interest rates are positively related to the target level of reserves. As a consequence interest rate hikes increase reserve transfers, defined as the change in international reserves net of the interest earned on reserves. Using quarterly data for 75 countries between 2000 and 2013, we document a positive relationship between interest-rate changes and reserve transfers as a share of GDP, that is consistent with the model.  相似文献   

14.
尹力博  柳依依 《金融研究》2016,429(3):189-206
本文通过研究中国商品期货市场在2006-2015年与国际代表性股票市场的双向信息溢出效应及其时变特征来探讨中国商品期货市场的金融化问题。结果发现中国商品期货市场与国际代表性股票市场间存在着显著的信息溢出效应,且在2008年次贷危机和2010年欧债危机期间,程度更加明显;在溢出方向上,国际股票市场对中国商品期货市场为显著净溢出。据此本文认为中国商品期货市场存在金融化现象,但是相较于国际商品期货市场,中国市场金融化程度要低。  相似文献   

15.
    
This paper investigates the rhetoric deployed by the International Integrated Reporting Council (IIRC) to legitimise itself and Integrated Reporting (<IR>) and establish its ideology. We draw on Aristotle's rhetorical appeals – ethos, logos, and pathos – and the rhetorical theory of diffusion to conduct a rhetorical analysis of the IIRC's initial documents. Our findings demonstrate how the IIRC's rhetorical strategies serve to: authorise and moralise the IIRC's actions through ethos and pathos; contrast certain social interests and privilege a capitalist ideology through logos; and establish and maintain the IIRC's authority in a way that reflects the interests of the financial community and investors, again, through ethos. We demonstrate how the IIRC has strategically used rhetoric to gain support and develop its authority by contrasting and resisting competing ideological pressures. We also show how a capitalist ideology emerged from this struggle as the shaping force behind <IR> at the cost of marginalising wider social interests. Examining the IIRC's rhetorical process contributes to understanding the ideological struggle surrounding <IR> and enriches our empirical understanding of the ideological turn of rhetorical strategies. Our study contributes to theory and practice by advancing knowledge on the rhetorical strategies that shape and establish dominant ideologies in accounting practice.  相似文献   

16.
2008年7月,英国《The Banker》杂志公布了本年度全球1000家大银行排名,展示了次贷危机后国际银行业新的变化形势。本文结合1000家大银行历史数据,分析进入新世纪以来全球银行业的重要发展特征、风险因素及其内在逻辑,并分析新兴市场特别是中国银行业的地位变化。当前,中国银行业发展迅速,地位仍有上升空间,若措施得当,可望在未来实现更高的崛起目标。  相似文献   

17.
International consumption risk sharing studies often generate counterfactual implications for asset return behavior with potentially misleading results. We address this contradiction using data moments of consumption and asset returns to fit a canonical international consumption risk sharing framework. Introducing persistent consumption risk, we find that its correlation across countries is more important for risk sharing than that of transitory risk. To identify these risk components, we jointly exploit the comovement of equity returns and consumption. This identification implies high correlations in persistent consumption risk, suggesting a strong degree of existing risk sharing despite low consumption correlations in the data.  相似文献   

18.
Armin Grunwald 《Futures》2011,43(8):820-830
In energy policy and energy research, decisions have to be made about the technologies and infrastructures that may be used to provide and distribute energy in future times, some of which are very distant. Frequently, energy futures such as predictions of the energy demand or energy scenarios are used for decision-support in this field. The diversity of energy futures, however, threatens any possibility for orientation, could lead to disorientation instead of helping more rational decision-making and could be used for ideological purpose. In this paper, we investigate concepts and approaches for scrutinizing, comparing and assessing the various energy futures from an epistemological point of view. Following the analysis of the structure of (energy) futures we will conclude that comparisons and assessments of energy futures should be made through processes of scrutiny and assessment, looking into the ingredients which have been used in constructing the respective futures, and into the process of their composition. Providing much more insight into the cognitive and normative structure of energy futures is required for allowing a more transparent and deliberative societal debate about future energy systems.  相似文献   

19.
本文结合2009年1000家大银行排行榜的新特征,分析全球银行业格局的变化。结论认为,金融危机对未来全球银行业的经营环境产生了巨大的影响,美欧银行业将很难再现过去10年的辉煌,部分坚持传统稳健经营模式的发达国家银行可望取得良好发展,新兴市场银行仍将是发展亮点和全球银行业角逐之地。  相似文献   

20.
G-3经济“L型”衰退,中国经济“V型”调整   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
2008年9月以来,随着雷曼兄弟的破产及此后一连串重大金融机构事件的发生,美国次贷危机急剧恶化,并迅速演变为全球性金融危机。各国政府,特别是美国政府采取了一系列紧急救市行动,由于这些政策措施只是暂时稳定了市场信心,未能解决引发危机的根本性问题,因此全球金融危机仍在继续发展,金融市场仍将巨幅波动。金融危机进一步冲击了实体经济增长。基于此次危机的特殊性和严重性,我们认为G-3(美、欧、日,下同)经济体将会陷入"L型"衰退。尽管中国金融体系受到金融危机的直接影响较小,但是危机却通过出口和投资等间接渠道对中国实体经济产生了较大影响。随着中国政府及时出台系列重大应对措施,中国经济有望走出与G-3经济体不同的"V型"调整轨迹。  相似文献   

设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号