基于IFCD指标体系的国际金融中心发展研究

IFCD指标体系是全面、综合、科学分析金融中心排名的指标体系。通过运用IFCD指标体系,我们可以比较不同金融中心的竞争力,从而更好地预测金融中心的发展潜力,规划金融中心的发展方向。近年来,上海国际金融中心建设取得了长足的进步,然而距离成熟发达金融中心,上海还有很长的路要走。上海的国际金融中心建设任重而道远。     

Overview of the special issue on “Policy Implications of and Lessons from the Global Financial Crisis”

This paper reviews the special issue “Policy Implications of and Lessons from the Global Financial Crisis,” and its themes: Global liquidity and the use of international reserves; real and financial economic patterns before and during the global financial crisis.     

Many small antelopes make a dragon

This study focuses on small business in Taiwan. It first discusses the most important features that modern small firms provide, how they are involved in the growing integrated world economy, and the recent rising trends in the number of small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs). This trend, which follows an earlier decrease is further investigated in the context of the Taiwan economy. Finally, three conditions of Taiwan’s successful small firm sector are discussed: appropriate policy, global involvement, and entrepreneurship. Alternative small business futures depend on the conditions that encourage the development of SMEs. In one scenario, where SMEs can find the niche markets quickly, and enhance their expertise in logistics, a rise in SMEs in the global market may be expected. In another scenario, if SMEs fail in forming alliances and networks when confronting with giant firms or large Foreign Direct Investment, there might be a reduction in enterprising behavior. Judging from the former performance of Taiwan’s SMEs, it can be concluded that there is a good chance that SMEs will remain a vibrant and important participant of its economy and the world economy in the future.     

国际板建设的理论、制度和操作层面障碍

本文讨论了国际板建设涉及的三方面的理论问题,以及五个具体操作层面的问题。这三个方面的关系问题是国际板与香港国际金融中心的地位关系问题、国际板与外汇管理制度的关系问题以及国际板与国内板的关系问题。五个方面具体操作层面的问题包括国际板的保荐、发行和审批流程问题、国际板的招股书披露要求问题、国际板的适用财务准则问题、国际板的上市规则问题以及国际板的公司治理问题。     

我国主权财富基金在国际资本运作中面临的挑战及对策分析

随着我国外汇储备规模不断扩大,设立主权财富基金成为我国政府寻求积极外汇管理的一种重要方式,同时也牵涉到诸多复杂的政治经济问题。2007年9月成立的中国投资责任有限公司标志着我国主权财富基金的成立,但成立之初公司定位尚不明确,同时面临着全球范围内的投资策略选择及西方国家的"主权基金威胁论"等诸多挑战。本文从国际经济和国际政治的双重角度讨论了我国主权财富基金在当前国际关系格局中面临的挑战,并提出定位于商业化和市场化运作、坚持多元化投资策略、坚持经济收益和政治收益的统一、广募贤才与投资外包并施、多拳出击打消国际政治阻力等发展对策。     

Bridging anticipation skills and intercultural competences as a means to reinforce the capacity of global citizens for learning to learn together

The view of the authors is that, in response to challenges created in many countries by the coexistence of communities of different origins and cultures, living together in peace requires a capacity to learn together and to navigate a plurality of cultures but also a plurality of futures.To explore this idea, a research has been conducted to identify future-oriented methodologies that can sustain activities in such fields as the culture of peace and global citizenship education. Such methodologies as Causal Layered Analysis, the Sarkar game, Transformative Scenario Planning and the framework of Futures Literacy are examined in relation to their added value for intercultural competences. The paper finishes on the presentation and analysis of a case study on a foresight participative workshop held with young people in Africa.The four methodologies and the case study presented in this paper provide, in our view, a strong impetus to further explore spaces where intercultural competences and the discipline of anticipation can be hybridized. Such hybridity seems to correspond to what is required of citizens in a globalizing world where solutions must not only be based on long term perspectives but also be shared across national, cultural, ethnic or religious boundaries.     

The rise and rise of IFRS: An examination of IFRS diffusion

We seek to understand the ever-increasing push towards the international harmonization of accounting standards and particularly the inexorable rise of standards produced by the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB). While the primary justifications for the increasing recognition given to these standards (IFRS) are economic, we question whether the empirical evidence to date has yielded convincing support for these arguments. We therefore offer an alternative explanation for the origin and diffusion of IFRS that incorporates social and political factors. Outsourcing the manufacture of accounting standards to a single private agency appears to be a rational, lower cost option – lowering both economic and political costs for individual states as long as they continue to retain residual decision rights with respect to the adoption of IFRS. However, such outsourcing must also be perceived to be legitimate. IFRS confer institutionalized legitimacy because they possess three characteristics required of a technology for global governance. These are sponsorship by powerful interest groups/regulators, internationality and plasticity. We therefore conclude that the widespread diffusion today of IFRS can at best be only partially explained as an economically rational phenomenon. Rather, the demand for legitimate action in the face of tightly coupled and complex global markets is at least equally important in generating support for IFRS.     

ADRs under momentum and contrarian strategies

Given the recent growth in the American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) and the current general climate of globalization in world equity exchanges, this paper investigates the ADRs as a distinct group of stocks within the framework of momentum and contrarian strategies. It considers the entire body of the level III ADRs from January 1982 to December 2005 and provides an analysis of their performance under various momentum and contrarian strategies. The methodology that is employed draws upon and is an extension of Lo and Mackinlay [Lo, Andrew W. and A. Craig MacKinlay, 1990. When are contrarian profits due to stock market overreaction? Review of Financial Studies, v3 (2), 175–206.] and Jegadeesh and Titman [Jegadeesh, Narasimhan and Sheridan Titman, 2001. Profitability of momentum strategies: An evaluation of alternative explanations, Journal of Finance, v56 (2, Apr), 699–720.]. The results indicate considerable support for the presence of the momentum and contrarian strategies in the ADRs market. The profitability of such strategies obviously runs counter to the efficient market hypothesis. These issues are elaborated upon and suggestions for further research are offered.     

中国商品期货金融化了吗？—来自国际股票市场的证据

本文通过研究中国商品期货市场在2006-2015年与国际代表性股票市场的双向信息溢出效应及其时变特征来探讨中国商品期货市场的金融化问题。结果发现中国商品期货市场与国际代表性股票市场间存在着显著的信息溢出效应,且在2008年次贷危机和2010年欧债危机期间,程度更加明显;在溢出方向上,国际股票市场对中国商品期货市场为显著净溢出。据此本文认为中国商品期货市场存在金融化现象,但是相较于国际商品期货市场,中国市场金融化程度要低。     

新世纪全球银行业发展:新特征、新风险——2008年1000家大银行排行榜评析

2008年7月,英国《The Banker》杂志公布了本年度全球1000家大银行排名,展示了次贷危机后国际银行业新的变化形势。本文结合1000家大银行历史数据,分析进入新世纪以来全球银行业的重要发展特征、风险因素及其内在逻辑,并分析新兴市场特别是中国银行业的地位变化。当前,中国银行业发展迅速,地位仍有上升空间,若措施得当,可望在未来实现更高的崛起目标。     

Evaluating international consumption risk sharing gains: An asset return view

International consumption risk sharing studies often generate counterfactual implications for asset return behavior with potentially misleading results. We address this contradiction using data moments of consumption and asset returns to fit a canonical international consumption risk sharing framework. Introducing persistent consumption risk, we find that its correlation across countries is more important for risk sharing than that of transitory risk. To identify these risk components, we jointly exploit the comovement of equity returns and consumption. This identification implies high correlations in persistent consumption risk, suggesting a strong degree of existing risk sharing despite low consumption correlations in the data.     

Energy futures: Diversity and the need for assessment

In energy policy and energy research, decisions have to be made about the technologies and infrastructures that may be used to provide and distribute energy in future times, some of which are very distant. Frequently, energy futures such as predictions of the energy demand or energy scenarios are used for decision-support in this field. The diversity of energy futures, however, threatens any possibility for orientation, could lead to disorientation instead of helping more rational decision-making and could be used for ideological purpose. In this paper, we investigate concepts and approaches for scrutinizing, comparing and assessing the various energy futures from an epistemological point of view. Following the analysis of the structure of (energy) futures we will conclude that comparisons and assessments of energy futures should be made through processes of scrutiny and assessment, looking into the ingredients which have been used in constructing the respective futures, and into the process of their composition. Providing much more insight into the cognitive and normative structure of energy futures is required for allowing a more transparent and deliberative societal debate about future energy systems.     

后危机时代国际银行业发展趋势研究——兼评2009年1000家大银行排行榜

本文结合2009年1000家大银行排行榜的新特征,分析全球银行业格局的变化。结论认为,金融危机对未来全球银行业的经营环境产生了巨大的影响,美欧银行业将很难再现过去10年的辉煌,部分坚持传统稳健经营模式的发达国家银行可望取得良好发展,新兴市场银行仍将是发展亮点和全球银行业角逐之地。     

G-3经济“L型”衰退,中国经济“V型”调整

2008年9月以来,随着雷曼兄弟的破产及此后一连串重大金融机构事件的发生,美国次贷危机急剧恶化,并迅速演变为全球性金融危机。各国政府,特别是美国政府采取了一系列紧急救市行动,由于这些政策措施只是暂时稳定了市场信心,未能解决引发危机的根本性问题,因此全球金融危机仍在继续发展,金融市场仍将巨幅波动。金融危机进一步冲击了实体经济增长。基于此次危机的特殊性和严重性,我们认为G-3(美、欧、日,下同)经济体将会陷入"L型"衰退。尽管中国金融体系受到金融危机的直接影响较小,但是危机却通过出口和投资等间接渠道对中国实体经济产生了较大影响。随着中国政府及时出台系列重大应对措施,中国经济有望走出与G-3经济体不同的"V型"调整轨迹。