A critical review of the application of environmental scenario exercises

Scenario exercises have become instrumental across multiple fields, from their original usage in business and military planning, to being ubiquitous in environmental planning and policy formation. This article critically reviews whether there are explicit and imminent divisions between how scenario exercises are used and discussed, with particular focus on the literature of qualitative scenarios concerning environmental challenges. The authors interrogate what scenario exercises are in actual practice, in the context of what they are used for and how they are designed, before then considering the criteria for determining ‘success’ for a scenario exercise. The particular focus of the literature analysed is in the emergence of the discipline of ‘environmental scenarios’, being scenarios concerned with 21st Century environmental challenges such as the influence of climate change on the notion of natural hazards.     

An evaluation of alternative approaches to the application of cash reserve requirements in Nigeria

This article evaluated ‘o-size-fits-all’ approach to cash reserve requirement implementation in Nigeria using the Vector Autoregressive methodology and scenario analysis. The central thrust was to ascertain if a one-size-fits-all approach would produce a better outcome or perhaps utilizing a differentiated approach would provide a better outcome. To that effect, our results eloquently provides various scenarios for consideration.     

Unmasking scenario planning: The colonization of the future in the ‘Local Governments of the Future’ program

In the Netherlands, the ‘Local Governments of the Future’ program has been introduced by the Ministry of the Interior and Kingdom Relations in 2014, in the context of the ongoing transformation of the Dutch welfare state; more specifically, the transformation of the social care sector. Scenario planning is a major preoccupation in this program and two major reports have been published in this connection. In this article, the authenticity of the scenario planning of the ‘Local Governments of the Future’ program is questioned. It is found that the ‘Local Governments of the Future’ program’s scenario planning is not a real scenario planning but, instead, a continuation of the neoliberal discourse by hegemonic stakeholders that seek to ‘close’ the future. It is concluded in this article that in the ‘Local Governments of the Future’ program the future is colonized and presented as an impersonal trend in which governmental agency for creatively negating and transcending the neoliberal discourse is irrelevant.     

Looking for a safe haven after fancy thrills: a psychometric analysis of risk perception in alpine tourist destinations

Visitors’ risk perceptions have been found to influence the on‐site behaviour of tourists and their intention to return to a destination or to recommend it to others. The present study analyses the perception of tourism risks in the Tyrol, Austria. Building on the psychometric paradigm, participants (N = 207) assessed 15 vacation risks on nine risk characteristics that are derived from psychometric research and completed with characteristics relevant in a tourism context. Findings suggest that additionally to managing the most likely risks, alpine destinations should be prepared to cope with worst case scenarios such as ‘potable water poisoning’, ‘food poisoning’, ‘breaking of an embankment dam’, ‘rock fall on a village’, ‘cable car accident’ and ‘terrorist attack’. Considering these rather low‐probability risks is of decisive importance since such risks are especially prone to evoke public outrage if they – against all expectations – result in damaging events.     

City foresight and development planning case study: Implementation of scenario planning in formulation of the Bulungan development plan

This article discusses the formulation of the Bulungan Development Plan (2002) that sought to formulate a 25 year city vision. The foresight process included how to prepared the process, implemented the scenario planning method, created consensus amongst stakeholders, and formulated graphic and narrative scenarios that explored alternative future for Bulungan. Based on these scenarios, the stakeholders formulated a vision for the city's preferred future. The vision is “excellence in agro industry supported by qualified human resources”.Project debriefing showed that unlike traditional forecasting or market research, the methods of foresight, especially scenario planning, is a more appropriate and powerful planning tool for integrated regional development. The main reason for this is that the future is unpredictable, and scenarios allow stakeholders to make sense of complexity.     

Cosmopolitan risk community in a bowl: a case study of China’s good food movement

Abstract

Ulrich Beck fundamentally transformed our way of thinking about human interdependence through his three core theses on risk, individualisation and cosmopolitanisation. However, two commonly observed deficiencies in Beck’s grand theory were its Eurocentric orientation and a lack of empirical grounding. Based on 5 focus groups and 14 interviews with participants of the emerging Clean Food Movement in China, this paper extends the Beckian discussion outside Europe. Through examining how individuals understand both ‘traditional’ and ‘new’ risks associated with contemporary food consumption, this paper demonstrates that in the face of unpredictable and incalculable harms, risks are not seen as a ‘thing’, but are translated into ‘causal relations’. Subsequently, for Chinese stakeholders, the best way to safeguard food risks is to enact more visible and functioning interdependent relations in the food system. This in turn has given rise to new forms of communities which cut across conventional geographic, socio-economic and political boundaries. The paper deepens a Beckian theorisation in two ways. First, it demonstrates that the ‘enabling’ effect of risk towards a cosmopolitan society is not limited to obvious global crises, such as climate catastrophes and financial meltdown. In fact, the mundane yet intimate concern of putting ‘good’ food in one’s dinner bowl already presses actors to form new social solidarities that are cosmopolitan in nature. Second, it goes beyond Beck’s assertion that the risk society has culminated in a cosmopolitan moment, and explores how a performative cosmopolitan community reshapes the ‘relations of definition’ to mitigate risks on the ground.     

Goal-based socio-technical scenarios: Greening the mobility practices in the Stockholm City District of Bromma,Sweden

This paper presents a new five-part method for developing goal-based socio-technical scenarios. In the first part, Scenario ‘Seeds’ are identified or created. The Scenario Content part focuses on the question of what could be changed and by whom, a fundamental element being iterative identification of objects and actors of change. Scenario Outcome focuses on the question of how to assess the potential contribution of these changes, estimated through modelling the scenario in terms of energy usage systems. Scenario Process explores the question of how to develop and represent a scenario in terms of a process of governance. Scenario Content, Outcome and Process are then combined into a Final Scenario which is further assessed and evaluated using qualitative methods. The development of Scenario Content is tested and exemplified in this paper through a scenario study of green mobility in the district of Bromma in Stockholm, Sweden. Preliminary findings indicate that by supporting explicit inclusion of actors and ‘the social’ aspect, the what-who iteration in Scenario Content also helps identify opportunities and obstacles of a social character, thus contributing to creation of socio-technically more consistent and comprehensive scenarios.     

Local and global price memory of international stock markets

The prime focus of this paper is on the impact of the world’s leading markets (USA, Japan, Hong Kong, UK, France, Switzerland and Germany) on the returns of the small Nordic markets (Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden). The order and the degree of processing both ‘local’ and ‘global’ information are uncovered using a combination of cointegration analysis and structural VAR modeling utilizing daily index returns. The results indicate that the US price changes, conditioned on the same day changes on the other markets, have an impact on all other markets during the following day, including the US market itself. Price changes on the Asian–Pacific markets are completely absorbed in price changes in Europe and do not have any direct effect on US prices. Finally, a cointegration relationship between Sweden and Norway is found, which affects also Finland.     

Scenarios in an organizational perspective

In everyday life there are many kinds of scenarios—those embracing society as a whole, and those limited to the local community centre. There is considerable variation in scenario subject matter, range, level and degree of detail.¹ Why have scenarios become so popular and which organizational arrangements have been created to design and implement this kind of policy-oriented futures research? This article looks at both elements of this question. It examines policy-oriented futures research in general, and scenarios as part of this type of research. It then discusses organizational structures for designing and applying scenarios. Following this, the strong and weak points of scenarios in policy formulation are explored and a number of conclusions are drawn.     

Futures of privacy protection: A framework for creating scenarios of institutional change

The future of privacy is a topical issue in the context of debates on mass surveillance and the increasing prevalence of social media sites in everyday life. Previous scenario studies on privacy have focused on macro trends and on forecasting technological developments, and claims about causal influences have remained implicit. This article presents an alternative approach for constructing scenarios of privacy protection. The article focuses on privacy protection as a social institution and builds on the theory of gradual institutional change. The article presents a scenario framework which includes three stages: (1) outlining the dynamics of privacy protection, (2) tracing historical processes and constructing a causal narrative, and (3) creating event-based scenarios. The resulting scenarios are narratives of plausible chains of events which are based on the results of the previous stages. The key difference to typical scenario approaches is the focus on specific actors and types of event sequences in privacy protection. The argument is that by lowering the level of abstraction in this way, researchers and decision-makers can gain a more profound understanding of possible future challenges in privacy protection and of key leverage points in the institutional change process.     

A new method for constructing scenarios

Scenario construction has been the method used in France in a number of studies that relate to regional development planning problems. This article describes how this peculiarly French interpretation of the method is built upon an assessment of a system of elements and their relationship—which forms the dynamic base—and hypotheses concerning external restraints. The progression in such a scenario is developed largely from the consideration of qualitative elements, and images of the future can then be worked out at cross-sections in time. In this way, trend scenarios reveal what is unacceptable and encourage the study of alternative developments.     

Japan 2000

This article describes key determinants shaping Japanese society in the year 2000: population structure, education, social change, resources, the shift to an ‘information society’, Japan's economic and social model, and its relationships with neighbouring countries. A major theme is that Japan has indeed lost its postwar ‘model’.     

American dreams,American imperatives

In this article I.F. Clarke continues his theme that the special nature of life in the American colonies inevitably led to an extra-European view of society. That can in general be called a composite idea—individuality, liberty, freedom, and great opportunities—and it appealed to many Europeans who saw in the USA a hope for the future and a model for imitation. It is reported that when some of Robert Owen's contingent crossed the Atlantic to New Harmony, they celebrated their approach to New York with a song composed by one of the party. ‘Land of the West! we come to thee,’ they sang. ‘ Sick of the old world's sophistry’, they went on. Today, only the well-off can sail into New York, usually on the QE2, and they do not usually sing as they sail.     

Scenarios on European energy security: Outcomes of natural gas strategy in 2020

This paper adopts a futuristic methodology and analyzes the role of natural gas in European energy security in order to transform economic and policy uncertainties into meaningful scenarios. It implements “trend analysis” to forecast the volume of gas needed until 2020 by elaborating the estimates of the EU Commission and “scenario building” to come up with alternative futures forging different regional implications. The economic analysis stems from four scenarios as introduced by the EU Commission: (1) baseline scenario with average oil price of 61$/bbl; (2) baseline scenario with average oil price of 100$/bbl; (3) New Energy Policy scenario with average oil price of 61$/bbl; (4) New Energy Policy scenario with average oil price of 100$/bbl. The policy analysis is derived from the options, restraints, priorities and strategies of the concerned actors which include the EU Commission, selected EU members, suppliers and transit countries. The analysis on actors results in four policy scenarios: (1) Russia first; (2) Russia everywhere; (3) security first; (4) each for itself. The matrix, which excludes the possibility of unprecedented developments such as a drastic increase in European shale gas production or continuing global recession, clusters 16 contingencies. The paper, within this context, gives an idea on how alternative policy options of European energy security may lead to different futures based on oil prices, environmental commitments and strategic initiatives of the concerned actors.     

Evaluating effects on the flow of electrical and electronic equipment and energy consumption due to alternative consumption patterns in China

In this paper, we evaluated the effects of consumer’s behavioural changes on usage and disposal of home appliances. With the model to estimate the product circulation, first we conducted the sensitivity analysis with the six parameters, namely urbanisation, household size, Gini coefficient, product lifetime and selection rate of used product and high energy efficiency product. Then, secondly we evaluated CO₂ emission and e-waste generation from four consumers’ different behavioural patterns, which are named as ‘Business As Usual’ (BAU), ‘Rapid Cycling’ (RC), ‘Chain of Users’ (CU) and ‘Quality and Wisdom’ (QW). As a result, the QW scenario was the best lifestyle in both criteria. Further, RC scenario had an advantage on the reduction in e-waste generation in one hand, but CU scenario reduced more CO₂ emission. During the transition era of China from materially poor to rich, it could be one of the solutions to utilise energy-efficient second-hand product to improve the living standards of the poor and replace technologically inferior product stocks in poor households.     

Ulrich Beck: exploring and contesting risk

Abstract

While risk research normally understands risk as an entity that can be calculated using statistics and probabilities – and which therefore also can become the object of insurance technology – it is the production of new, non-calculable risks and therefore also risks that cannot be insured against, which is at the centre of Ulrich Beck’s risk society theory. The article examines Beck’s conceptualization of risk and discusses how he has clarified and further refined the concept since publishing Risk Society in 1986. The article shows, first, how Beck understands risk as an entity that is neither danger nor risk in the traditional sense but rather something in between, which he refers to as ‘man-made disasters’ and ‘new risks’. The discussion then addresses Beck’s position in relation to the ontological status of risk, which is an intermediate position between realism and constructivism. The non-calculability and non-insurability of the new risks are also examined. The article discusses what it means that the new risks are not visible and the significance of non-knowledge for how we understand them. Finally, the new conditions of existence for politics, states and individuals are outlined in the aftermath of Beck’s risk society theory. The article concludes with a discussion of the analytical potential of the theory.     

Carrot or stick: Impacts of alternative climate and energy policy scenarios on agriculture

The climate and energy strategy of the European Union presents the aims for all economic sectors to cut carbon dioxide emissions. In this paper, we studied what kind of conflicts, synergies, opportunities and control measures the climate and energy policy brings to farms in Finland. We used the Delphi method to assess possible outcomes of three scenarios based on the strength of mitigation policy. The scenarios scrutinised were (1) Baseline, (2) Tight Control and (3) Energy Plus Food. These scenarios create different adaptive needs and measures on farms. Baseline scenario follows the present and forthcoming development in agriculture and Tight Control scenario, in turn, constitutes all possible mitigation measures recently introduced in the scientific discussion. In Energy Plus Food scenario, farms increasingly produce renewable energy in addition to food and, therefore, have new opportunities to develop their businesses. The Delphi panel estimated how the farms would cope with different future developments represented by the scenarios. Based on our results, it is evident that interdisciplinary analysis in research and inter-sectoral cooperation between agricultural and energy policies are required.     

Public perceptions of the dioxin incident in Irish pork

In early December 2008, a global recall of Irish pork was initiated as a result of a subset of the national pork output being contaminated with dioxin. In this study, members of a panel from an Internet‐based longitudinal monitor of public opinion on food and health issues were used to assess public perceptions about the dioxin incident in late December. Although most respondents did not regard food as posing a risk to health, a larger proportion of respondents reported that that there was a ‘very high’ health risk from pork (8.6%) compared to any other food of animal origin. However, when asked to rank the risk posed to human health from a broad range of food and non‐food hazards, PCBs/dioxins were considered to pose less of a risk than high fat food, chemical pollution, or tanning. The majority of respondents (70.5%) considered that the authorities managed the incident in an ‘adequate’ or ‘very efficient’ manner. Respondents who considered that the authorities’ management of the incident was ‘incompetent’ rated the risk associated with eating Irish pork to be higher than those who considered that the authorities’ management was ‘very efficient’. Both the European Food Safety Authority and the Irish food safety authorities pronounced that there was no risk to human health from the level of dioxin in the pork. These communications, coupled with the rapid handling of the incident in an open and transparent way, reassured consumers and maintained their confidence in the food supply.     

The territorial futures of Europe: ‘Trends’, ‘Competition’ or ‘Cohesion’

The ESPON 2006 scenario project generated three integrated roll-forward scenarios (A roll-forward scenario is a scenario in which the hypotheses define the parameters at the start of the covered time period and the scenario then explores the unfolding of events based on theses hypotheses. This is opposed to a roll-backward scenario in which the situation at the end of the time period is defined and the scenario then explores the path to reach this situation.). In the trend scenario renewed efforts are made for the Lisbon strategy, demanding extra investments in R&D and education. Regional policy will also be continued with vigour. In the Competition Scenario bold decisions are made regarding Europe's continued prosperity. The Lisbon strategy takes precedence over institutional reform and other sectoral policies. In the Cohesion Scenario Europe is confronted with the challenge of fully integrating the various regions in Europe. The budgets for Regional Policy and Rural Development Policy are enhanced and targeted to the most needy regions. The scenarios are described as stories about the future, supported by model calculations and visualised by various maps. They concentrate on urban and rural development and on territorial developments in different parts of Europe, like North-West Europe, the Alpine Space and Central and Eastern Europe. In addition, a proactive, roll-back scenario explores the possibilities to combine competitiveness, cohesion and sustainability. A message, derived from the scenarios, is that independent of the explored policy options the European territory will be confronted with large challenges like a (rapid) decline of fossil energy resources and increasing impacts of climate change. The scenarios appear particularly helpful in the context of the current paradigm shift in European regional policy from a policy for balance to a policy for aggregate growth.     

Functions of scenarios in transition processes

Given the interplaying tendencies of economic decline, social instability, and environmental depletion, any transition towards sustainable development faces a challenging task. To successfully cope with this complexity requires transition management. Integrated approaches for supporting sustainability transitions have been elaborated in the last years. Future studies and scenario construction are regarded as essential components in these approaches. However, the related studies in this field have focused either on a specific type of transition process, or on decision support in a different contextual process, or on a specific function of scenarios. Thus, an evaluation of the wide range of viewpoints on the functions of scenarios with respect to the requirements for transition management is still missing. In this paper, we systematically elaborate upon the functions for transition management that scenarios can fulfil. The developed concept is applied to five empirical scenario studies supporting transition processes on the national, regional and local level in Switzerland. The paper contributes to the development of a functional methodology of transition support, providing initial guidelines for answering the question of which method is appropriate for what type and phase of a transition process.