Mexico’s low carbon futures: An integrated assessment for energy planning and climate change mitigation by 2050

This paper shows an integrated assessment for energy planning and climate change mitigation in Mexico, as an international case study. The Mexico 2050 Calculator was used to run a number of low carbon future scenarios by 2050. The calculator consists of a whole-systems model, which combines the main sectors of the Mexican economy into a single visual tool. By integrating energy and carbon dynamics across all sectors and carrying out a sensitivity analysis of the entire model, we compare four low carbon energy scenarios to assess current energy policy strategies in the country. The methodology proposed in this paper can also be applied to any other nation, particularly to those with similar models already available. Our findings show the relative impact of each sector and their various interactions for achieving Mexico’s ratified climate commitments. The paper also includes policy recommendations and highlights the need for scaling-up energy efficiency policy efforts in industry and transport, for having a higher focus on agricultural and land use policies, and for promoting integrated renewable energy policies.     

Food scenarios 2025: Drivers of change between global and regional

This article presents the results of a future study of the food sector. Two scenarios have been developed using a combination of: 1) a summary of the relevant scientific knowledge, 2) systematic scenario writing, 3) an expert-based Delphi technique, and 4) an expert seminar assessment. The two scenarios present possible futures at global, national (Denmark) and regional (Zealand, Denmark) levels. The main scenario is called ‘Food for ordinary days and celebrations’ (a combination of ‘High-technological food production − The functional society’ and ‘High-gastronomic food − The experience society’). A less likely scenario is called ‘The reappearence of the sea − The aquarial society’. The purpose of the scenario writing has been to provide strategic tools for societal actors who to create economic growth and jobs, particularly regional governments and firms. Suggestions concerning regional industrial policy and firm actions are included in the article.     

Some future scenarios for renewable energy

Energy security issues, climate change, fossil fuel depletion, new technologies, and environmentally conscious consumers are powerful forces shaping the renewable energy sector. The future of renewable energy depends upon how powerful these forces are and which combination of forces prevails. This paper defines and analyzes four different scenarios, business as usual (2010–2030), focus on climate change (2010–2060), focus on energy security (2010–2030), and a clean and secure energy future (2010–2100) for the future of renewable energy. A clean and secure energy future, where renewable energy accounts for between 50% and 80% of total energy demand, is the most favorable scenario for the future of renewable energy but also the scenario that takes the greatest amount of commitment, in terms of time and money from businesses, individuals, governments, and policy makers.     

Scenarios on European energy security: Outcomes of natural gas strategy in 2020

This paper adopts a futuristic methodology and analyzes the role of natural gas in European energy security in order to transform economic and policy uncertainties into meaningful scenarios. It implements “trend analysis” to forecast the volume of gas needed until 2020 by elaborating the estimates of the EU Commission and “scenario building” to come up with alternative futures forging different regional implications. The economic analysis stems from four scenarios as introduced by the EU Commission: (1) baseline scenario with average oil price of 61$/bbl; (2) baseline scenario with average oil price of 100$/bbl; (3) New Energy Policy scenario with average oil price of 61$/bbl; (4) New Energy Policy scenario with average oil price of 100$/bbl. The policy analysis is derived from the options, restraints, priorities and strategies of the concerned actors which include the EU Commission, selected EU members, suppliers and transit countries. The analysis on actors results in four policy scenarios: (1) Russia first; (2) Russia everywhere; (3) security first; (4) each for itself. The matrix, which excludes the possibility of unprecedented developments such as a drastic increase in European shale gas production or continuing global recession, clusters 16 contingencies. The paper, within this context, gives an idea on how alternative policy options of European energy security may lead to different futures based on oil prices, environmental commitments and strategic initiatives of the concerned actors.     

Governing the transition to low-carbon futures: A critical survey of energy scenarios for 2050

There is a growing scientific consensus that limiting the increase in global average temperature to around 2 °C above pre-industrial levels is necessary to avoid unacceptable impact on the climate system. This requires that the developed countries’ emissions are radically reduced during the next 40 years. Energy scenario studies provide insights on the societal transitions that might be implied by such low-carbon futures, and in this paper we discuss how a greater attention to different governance and institutional issues can complement future scenario exercises. The analysis is based on a critical review of 20 quantitative and qualitative scenario studies, all of relevance for meeting long-term climate policy objectives. The paper: (a) analyzes some key differences in energy technology mixes and primary energy use patterns across these studies; (b) briefly explores the extent and the nature of the societal challenges and policy responses implied; and (c) discusses a number of important implications for the design and scope of future scenario studies. Our review shows that in previous scenario studies the main attention is typically paid to analyzing the impact of well-defined and uniform policy instruments, while fewer studies factor in the role of institutional change in achieving different energy futures. We therefore point towards a number of strategies of integrating issues of transition governance into future scenario analyses, and argue for a closer synthesis of qualitative and quantitative scenario building.     

Carbon capture,utilisation and storage scenarios for the Gulf Cooperation Council region: A Delphi-based foresight study

Capture, utilisation and storage of carbon dioxide resulting from combusting fossil fuels is gaining attention around the world as a means of addressing climate change. This paper aims to present a set of carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) scenarios for the hydrocarbon-rich Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region through to the year 2030, with the ultimate goal of stimulating constructive debate and discussion at both policy and academic levels. This will also be beneficial in terms of identifying future opportunities and threats so that better-informed policy action can be taken today. Four explorative scenarios have been developed using the Delphi technique, and they represent a joint creation of about one hundred highly-informed individuals from diverse professional backgrounds.     

Food Security Challenge of Climate Change: An Analysis for Policy Selection

Food security and the ability to meet this fundamental need is without a doubt an important objective to all nations. This study deals with climate change adaptation and its costs-benefits with an empirical analysis optimizing food security related adaptation strategy over a 50-year time frame. An Empirical Dynamic Commutable General Equilibrium Model for Climate and the Economy (EDCGECE) is applied to describe the potential effects of climate change on food security and examine the implications of future strategies for Malaysia. Specifically, this study considers the potential effects of climate change on food security and explores the prioritizing of mitigation options. Different scenarios show a baseline scenario without adaptation action followed by introduction of adaptation actions. The analysis reveals important contrasts from baseline to future options over time. The results indicate that food sustainability gap in Malaysia is about 30–35% below the national targets in 2015 (baseline) and the gap is rising over time due to climatic effects in agriculture. However, applying different levels of adaptation actions, (e.g. 5–20%) food security gaps are reduced over time considerably. The projected adaptation strategies applied in this study would be effective and helpful to support sustainable food security related strategies in Malaysia.     

The territorial futures of Europe: ‘Trends’, ‘Competition’ or ‘Cohesion’

The ESPON 2006 scenario project generated three integrated roll-forward scenarios (A roll-forward scenario is a scenario in which the hypotheses define the parameters at the start of the covered time period and the scenario then explores the unfolding of events based on theses hypotheses. This is opposed to a roll-backward scenario in which the situation at the end of the time period is defined and the scenario then explores the path to reach this situation.). In the trend scenario renewed efforts are made for the Lisbon strategy, demanding extra investments in R&D and education. Regional policy will also be continued with vigour. In the Competition Scenario bold decisions are made regarding Europe's continued prosperity. The Lisbon strategy takes precedence over institutional reform and other sectoral policies. In the Cohesion Scenario Europe is confronted with the challenge of fully integrating the various regions in Europe. The budgets for Regional Policy and Rural Development Policy are enhanced and targeted to the most needy regions. The scenarios are described as stories about the future, supported by model calculations and visualised by various maps. They concentrate on urban and rural development and on territorial developments in different parts of Europe, like North-West Europe, the Alpine Space and Central and Eastern Europe. In addition, a proactive, roll-back scenario explores the possibilities to combine competitiveness, cohesion and sustainability. A message, derived from the scenarios, is that independent of the explored policy options the European territory will be confronted with large challenges like a (rapid) decline of fossil energy resources and increasing impacts of climate change. The scenarios appear particularly helpful in the context of the current paradigm shift in European regional policy from a policy for balance to a policy for aggregate growth.     

Future visioning of local climate change: A framework for community engagement and planning with scenarios and visualisation

There is an urgent need for meaningful information and effective public processes at the local level to build awareness, capacity, and agency on climate change, and support planning and decision-making. This paper describes a conceptual framework to meet these requirements by generating alternative, coherent, holistic climate change scenarios and visualizations at the local scale, in collaboration with local stakeholders and scientists. The framework provides a template for a process to integrate emission scenarios with both mitigation and adaptation strategies, and to link local manifestations of impacts and responses with global climate change scenarios. The article outlines the empirical application of this framework in the Local Climate Change Visioning Project in British Columbia, Canada. The project collaboratively localized, spatialized, and visualized possible climate change effects and community responses in the community's ‘backyards’. The article concludes with lessons learned and suggested principles for future visioning efforts to engage communities in possible policy and behavioural choices.     

Scenarios on the spatial and economic development of Europe

Countless autonomous, self-reinforcing and countervailing forces impact the future competitiveness of Europe and its spatial structure. Poignant examples include globalization, ageing and climate change, but also policy decisions taken by nation-states or the European Union. Scenarios are an appropriate method by which to explore possible future developmental pathways in a dynamic context. This contribution describes and discusses four economic policy scenarios produced by the ESPON 3.2 project and link these to the Lisbon Strategy and the European Social Model. In each scenario, a policy package is assembled from existing EU policy areas according to a particular ideological context. Afterwards, its territorial consequences are discussed in terms of socioeconomic disparities, migration and the environment. In so doing, some observations will be made regarding possible spin-offs, trade-offs and side effects of European policy when placed in a spatial context. These scenarios should hold interest for policy discussions on territorial cohesion, a concept which seeks to integrate economic development and spatial planning, as well as on European competitiveness and cohesion.     

Energy Savings and Economic Impact of Green Roofs: A Pilot Study

This study focuses on the energy savings and economic impact of green roof systems applied to Central Bodrum, a district in southwestern Turkey. Energy savings of the buildings were evaluated based on the added thermal resistance on the roofs and corresponding heat transmission through the roofs. Four different scenarios, two without green financing and two with green consumer loans for retrofitting financed by the central government via the state-owned banks, were studied. The economic impact of this activity on the economy is estimated based on sectoral employment multipliers for a period of 10 years. Based on the scenario analysis and the priorities of the Turkish economy, given the employment benefits and energy savings which would reduce the energy demand in the area in the peak season, we propose that the government implements green consumer loans for retrofitting through the state-owned banks.     

Using scenarios to explore UK upland futures

Uplands around the world are facing significant social, economic and environmental changes, and decision-makers need to better understand what the future may hold if they are to adapt and maintain upland goods and services. This paper draws together all major research comprising eight studies that have used scenarios to describe possible futures for UK uplands. The paper evaluates which scenarios are perceived by stakeholders to be most likely and desirable, and assesses the benefits and drawbacks of the scenario methods used in UK uplands to date. Stakeholders agreed that the most desirable and likely scenario would be a continuation of hill farming (albeit at reduced levels) based on cross-compliance with environmental measures. The least desirable scenario is a withdrawal of government financial support for hill farming. Although this was deemed by stakeholders to be the least likely scenario, the loss of government support warrants close attention due to its potential implications for the local economy. Stakeholders noted that the environmental implications of this scenario are much less clear-cut. As such, there is an urgent need to understand the full implications of this scenario, so that upland stakeholders can adequately prepare, and policy-makers can better evaluate the likely implications of different policy options. The paper concludes that in future, upland scenario research needs to: (1) better integrate in-depth and representative participation from stakeholders during both scenario development and evaluation; and (2) make more effective use of visualisation techniques and simulation models.     

A critical review of the application of environmental scenario exercises

Scenario exercises have become instrumental across multiple fields, from their original usage in business and military planning, to being ubiquitous in environmental planning and policy formation. This article critically reviews whether there are explicit and imminent divisions between how scenario exercises are used and discussed, with particular focus on the literature of qualitative scenarios concerning environmental challenges. The authors interrogate what scenario exercises are in actual practice, in the context of what they are used for and how they are designed, before then considering the criteria for determining ‘success’ for a scenario exercise. The particular focus of the literature analysed is in the emergence of the discipline of ‘environmental scenarios’, being scenarios concerned with 21st Century environmental challenges such as the influence of climate change on the notion of natural hazards.     

Information sufficiency and attribution of responsibility: predicting support for climate change policy and pro-environmental behavior

This study extends the central part of the risk information seeking and processing model to examine how message elaboration influences individuals’ support for climate change mitigation policy and their intention to engage in pro-environmental behavior. Data were collected through online experimental surveys at two large universities in the Northeastern United States. Results indicate that perceived issue salience triggered negative affect and information insufficiency, both of which prompted systematic processing, which subsequently led to greater policy support and stronger intention to adopt more pro-environmental behaviors. From an applied perspective, this study suggests important pathways to encourage greater message elaboration, which may lead to increased public support for mitigation policies and adoption of pro-environmental behavior.     

The two limits debates: “Limits to Growth” and climate change

In this article we compare the current debate about global warming with the earlier discourse of Limits to Growth (LtG) of the 1970s. We are especially interested in the similarities of and differences between the two cases and therefore compare the policy challenges and lessons to be drawn. While the two debates differ on important issues, they share a technocratic orientation to public policy, and susceptibility to similar pitfalls. In both debates alarming scenarios about future catastrophes play an important role. We suggest that climate change policy discourse needs to focus more closely on the social, economic, and political dimensions of climate change, as opposed to its excessive emphasis on emission reduction targets. We also argue that an excessive faith in the market mechanisms to supply global warming mitigation technologies is problematic. In this respect, we provide a reality check regarding the political implications of emission targets and timetables and suggest how policy issues can be moved forward.     

Freedom gas to Europe: Scenarios analyzed using the Global Gas Model

State-of-the-art, open access numerical modeling of imperfectly competitive energy markets offers a sound and transparent way to address topical research questions in energy and commodity markets. We use an open access equilibrium model, the Global Gas Model (GGM), and sector-specific, politically motivated scenarios to investigate the prospects for sales of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the U.S. into the European energy market. We discuss the risks and opportunities for U.S. LNG and derive implications for policy, business, and finance in the energy sector. We find that Europe is not an attractive market for US LNG in the base case and in scenarios of moderate support of U.S. LNG flows into Europe. In these scenarios, Asia offers higher prices for US LNG and draws substantially higher import volumes. Our modeling results show that the interconnectedness of global gas markets due to an abundance of LNG import capacity in Europe and other regions—particularly Asia—allows for adjustments to global trade patterns that mitigate the consequences of regional disturbances.     

Making territorial scenarios for Europe

Three paradigmatic traditions of scenario-building can be seen to exist. The model approach with its roots in American military scenarios of the 1950s, the design approach in French urban and regional development of the 1960s, and the strategic conversation approach in scenarios made in the private sector since the 1970s. In theory, these traditions can be integrated by organising the scenario project in a cyclical way. The territorial scenarios for Europe were made by combining workshops, a literature review and modelling. Thematic scenarios were produced for various themes, like demography, the economy, energy, and climate change. These thematic scenarios were combined into four integrated scenarios. The robustness of the scenarios was tested by introducing several “wild cards” and by exploring their territorial impacts throughout Europe. This applied approach succeeded in combining important strengths from the different scenario traditions. Improvements, however, could still be made.     

Multi-scale narratives from an IA perspective: Part I. European and Mediterranean scenario development

Desertification in the Northern Mediterranean region can be effectively managed only through an understanding of the principal ecological, socio-cultural and economic drivers. Scenarios can play an important role in the understanding of such a complex system. Following the fundamentals of Integrated Assessment, narrative storylines were developed that are qualitative, participatory, and highly integrated. Multi-scale long-term (2030) storylines were developed for Europe, the Northern Mediterranean, and for four local cases. This paper discusses the methodology and results of the process of developing European and Mediterranean scenarios. In Part II, the local scenario development by means of scenario workshops is elaborated upon. European and Mediterranean scenarios were based on a set of three existing European scenarios, that were adapted to fit the specific issues in the Mediterranean region, using the so-called Factor-Actor-Sector (FAS) framework. Resulting scenarios were Convulsive Change (disruptive climate change); Big is Beautiful (oversized EU and powerful multinationals); and Knowledge is King (technological development and mass migration). It proved possible to use and enrich a set of existing European scenarios and to translate them to fit the Mediterranean region. A possible use of this type of narrative storylines is further illustrated in Part II.