Postnormal times revisited

Postnormal times (PNT) have been characterised by complexity, chaos and contradictions. But PNT theory has come under criticism for (allegedly) suggesting that ‘the world has entered an Omega phase’, using Alliterative Logic, and being western in nature. This paper answers some of the critics of PNT, provides further evidence of postnormal phenomenon, and examines the current trends that are taking us towards a postnormal ‘extended present’. Finally, it explores what PNT implies for futures studies and what it means to ‘be postnormal’.     

The implications,challenges and benefits of a complexity-orientated Futures Studies

Complexity science is increasingly cited as an essential component of a Futures Studies (FS) capable of assisting with the wide-ranging and complex societal problems of the 21st century. Yet, the exact implications of complexity science for FS remain somewhat opaque. This paper explicitly sets out the challenges for FS that arise from six complexity science concepts: (1) irreversibility of time (2) path dependence 3) sensitivity to initial conditions (4) emergence and systemness (5) attractor states (6) complex causation. The discussion highlights the implications of these challenges for FS tools such as horizon scanning and weak signals, and sets out the benefits of overcoming the challenges to create an explicitly complexity-orientated FS. The discussion concludes with a set of questions summarising the challenge for FS from complexity science with the aim of stimulating a discussion as to how they can be met. The concluding remarks make some initial suggestions in this regard.     

Investigating science for governance through the lenses of complexity

This paper assesses the contributions of complexity theory to post-normal science. The oversupply of facts in science for governance is explained as a matter of complexity, defined as irreducible pluralism in the knowledge base. The paper shows how complexity provides an interface to engage with the multiple facts of science through three different examples. First, water narratives are used to show how different scales of analysis produce contradictory scientific representations of the same system. Second, smart electricity grids are assessed to demonstrate how different levels of uncertainty are associated with different representations. Third, the case of slum upgrading is used to discuss the need to take into account stakes in science for governance.     

An Investigation of Event Study Methodologies with Clustered Events and Event Day Uncertainty

The specification and power of mean-adjusted, market and quadratic models in event studies using OLS, Patell, Jaffe and GLS are examined. Simulation is used with security and portfolio returns to capture different cross correlations. The market model is always superior in specification and power compared to the mean-adjusted and quadratic models. The use of OLS with the market model is supported in the absence of clustered events and event day uncertainty, whereas use of Jaffe with the market model is supported in the presence of these problems.     

改革开放30年，彰显中国会计本科教学与时俱进

中国改革开放30年,以全面推进素质教育作为会计基础教育改革和会计专业教育改革的重要方向。会计本科教学在教学目标、教学理念、教学方案、教学手段、教学方法和教学管理等方面与时俱进,逐步形成了特有的教学风格,有效提高了本科教育质量。     

网络时代的客户关系管理

本文通过客户关系管理（CRM）在互联网领域的流行，分析实施客户关系管理的运作流程和重点，指出应从顾客接触点开始，建立顾客数据库，从而实施良好的客户关系管理。     

信用卡转换成本研究综述

早在上世纪80年代,经济学家开始研究存在转换成本的市场竞争问题。目前,有关转换成本的研究主要集中在电信、银行存款及信用卡等市场领域。研究信用卡转换成本对银行业发展、信用卡产业的发展等具有重要现实意义。本文基于转换成本一般研究基础之上,从转换成本的内涵与类型、对消费者的影响及研究方法等方面对学术界有关信用卡转换成本的研究进行了梳理和概括,以期为今后的信用卡转换成本的深入研究提供参考。     

The geometry of crashes. A measure of the dynamics of stock market crises

This paper investigates the dynamics of stocks in the S&P 500 index for the last 30 years. Using a stochastic geometry technique, we investigate the evolution of the market space and define a new measure for that purpose that is a robust index of the dynamics of the market structure and provides information on the intensity and the sectoral impact of crises. With this measure, we analyse the effects of extreme phenomena on the geometry of the market. Nine crashes between 1987 and 2001 are compared by looking at the way they modify the shape of the manifold that describes the S&P 500 market space.     

社会信用体系建设是时代所需

社会信用体系是以信用为基础进行社会资源配置的创新制度安排。信用已经成为一种生产要素,这体现了一种社会公平。作为社会资源配置的新依据,信用资本比实体资本来得更直接,有时甚至可以一票否决。信用资源的有效利用与合理配置需要信用监管体系与市场机制共同作用。信用提高了现代生活的质量与效率,建立并发挥社会信用体系的作用已经成为现代市场经济发展和社会治理必不可少的内容。     

The global emergency—Perspectives,overviews, responses

The article reviews a number of recent works that cover different aspects of continuity and change in a complex world. The choice of these sources is governed by criteria that include quality, relevance and fit with the observer’s interests. In this case the fact that humanity had started to overshoot global limits in the 1980s leads to shared concerns about the viability of the current world order. The chosen works respond to these concerns in two ways. The first group of four works attempts to analyse the present global situation and, in so doing, seek to offer conclusions and recommendations. The second group consisting of two works focus more specifically on possible solutions and strategies of response.     

模型不确定性条件下的货币政策决策分析

为什么中央银行在制定货币政策时往往是比较谨慎或保守的?从具体的货币政策规则的经验估计如泰勒规则看,这些货币政策比具体经济模型所要求的最优货币政策更为保守。本文从模型不确定性及决策者对不确定性态度变化的角度,运用美联储数据进行实证来解释这一现象。经过分析发现,若与降低利率的变动相比,央行更为关心产出缺口的稳定性,则央行对模型不确定呈厌恶或呈中性将会大大降低泰勒规则中的反应系数,随之产生较为保守的货币政策,若央行对不确定性呈偏好,则产生较为积极的货币政策。     

不可逆投资理论对中国企业投资行为的解释

固定资产投资的不稳定与不确定正日益被投资理论献所关注。研究表明，其可逆性是相当低或是不可能的，不确定性会给投资施加巨大的影响。本回顾了不可逆投资理论的有关献，实证检验了中国企业的投资与通货膨胀和利息率之间的关系，发现这两种变化的不确定性已经妨碍了投资的增长。在章的最后得出了适用于中国宏观经济的重要政策建议。     

资源流动性与经济转型时期的中国地方财政职能

传统财政理论在论述地方财政职能时,都隐含着资源可以在各辖区间充分流动的理论前提,在此前提下,地方政府在宏观经济稳定和再分配方面的作用有限;但是,新近的一些观点对此提出了挑战,而处于经济转型时期的中国地方财政的实际职能也充分地印证了这些新的观点.从长远来看,中国地方财政职能的有效发挥,有赖于中央和地方之间合理地划分事权.在此基础上,经济转型时期的中国地方财政职能才能不断优化,财政支出效率也能得到提高.     

全球流动性不确定性与中央银行的思考

本文从探究全球流动性原因的思路出发,描述了对流动性的理解;分析了目前全球流动性的特征;在寻求全球流动性的根源过程中,重点阐述全球流动性与世界几个主要中央银行的货币政策的因果关系。并且,结合目前美国"次贷危机"对市场的影响,表明了流动性的不确定性,以及由此带来对中央银行的挑战。     

Customer Profitability Analysis Reports for Resource Allocation: The Role of Complex Marketing Environments

Most decision making research in management accounting remains focused on cost information in a production context. Little is known on the relevance of customer profifitability analysis (CuPA) reports, which more accurately reflect revenue and marketing support variations acrosscustomers, for marketing decisions. This study uses an experimental design to examine the impact of such reports on resource allocation decisions (that affect the firm's profits) in marketing environments varying in complexity. The main result of the experiment suggests that the value of CuPA reports depends on the complexity of the marketing setting. Only in a highly complex marketing setting do they enhance resource allocation decisions and resultant firm profitability. Conversely, in the simple marketing environment, decision makers can combine their traditional volume-based cost data with other available types of feedback to perform as well as under a more accurate CuPA report. These findings on complexity contrast with those of a prior study in a production context ( Gupta and King, 1997 ). It is argued that improvements in the current research design, in the form of regularly updated profitability reports and concerning accuracy, increase the relevance of CuPA reports in a complex marketing setting.     

居安思危——顺境中的国企人力资源管理变革

顺境中的国有企业如何进行人力资源变革是非常值得探讨的。本文以一家国有企业为对象,剖析并总结了其变革成功的影响因素,如利用宏观环境的压力和企业自身发展带来的问题促成变革契机,并利用制度性因素为卓越的领导者提供有效的激励措施,预先进行充分的改革准备,并借助较强的执行力使改革顺利实施等,为其他国企提供了可资借鉴的宝贵经验。     

关于上市公司国有股变现方式的思考

国有股流通变现问题是一个关系到上市公司与证券市场健康发展的大问题。本对国有股变现方式进行了系统介绍和深入分析，提出了依靠增量奖金解决国有股变现的合理性建议。     

The effects of tolerance for ambiguity and uncertainty on the appropriateness of accounting performance measures

This article examines how task uncertainty, environmental uncertainty and tolerance for ambiguity (TFA) affect managerial opinions about the appropriateness of accounting performance measures (APM). Based on accounting and psychology literature, this study argues that task uncertainty and environmental uncertainty differ in their direct effects on the appropriateness of APM, and furthermore that the relationship between uncertainty and the appropriateness of APM is moderated by managers' TFA. Hypotheses are developed, and tested with data from a survey study among 250 managers in eleven organizations, using partial least squares (PLS). Overall, the results show that the two types of uncertainty have opposite effects on managers' opinions about the appropriateness of APM, and that these effects are moderated by TFA, which confirms expectations. No direct effect of TFA on the appropriateness of APM was found. Overall, these findings provide an explanation of the inconsistencies in the extant behavioural management accounting literature that has addressed the appropriateness of APM under uncertainty.     

The implications of central bank transparency for uncertainty and disagreement

Using survey data from 25 economies we provide evidence that greater transparency surrounding monetary policy reduces uncertainty of interest rates and inflation, primarily by reducing uncertainty that is common to agents rather than disagreement between agents. This suggests that studies that focus on disagreement as a proxy for uncertainty understate the benefits of monetary policy transparency. The adoption of inflation targets and forward guidance are both associated with lower uncertainty, although inflation targets have a stronger impact on reducing uncertainty than forward guidance. Moreover, there are diminishing benefits from ever higher levels of transparency. Taken as a whole, our results support the contention that clarity of communication is as important as the magnitude of transparency.     

资本计量方法改革、商业银行风险偏好与信贷配置

为提高银行业风险管理水平与信贷配置效率,监管部门于2014年开展了资本管理高级方法的试点工作。本文基于上市银行2010至2016年的微观数据,与银监会公布的行业信贷风险进行匹配,采用双重差分和三重差分法,实证分析前述改革如何影响试点银行的风险偏好和信贷调配。研究发现,在资本管理高级方法实施后:(1)试点银行显著降低了风险加权资产的规模;(2)试点银行风险偏好的变化存在非线性的特征,在调减高风险行业贷款的同时,并未显著增加最安全行业的贷款,而是增加了风险略高行业的贷款,体现出试点银行对风险与收益的权衡;(3)进一步将行业划分为“虚”与“实”,研究发现试点银行减少了房地产业(“虚”)、制造业(“实”)和建筑业(“实”)贷款,显著增加了金融业(“虚”)贷款。本文研究不仅丰富了资本监管方面的文献,也对金融支持供给侧结构性改革具有启示意义。