Postnormal times revisited

Postnormal times (PNT) have been characterised by complexity, chaos and contradictions. But PNT theory has come under criticism for (allegedly) suggesting that ‘the world has entered an Omega phase’, using Alliterative Logic, and being western in nature. This paper answers some of the critics of PNT, provides further evidence of postnormal phenomenon, and examines the current trends that are taking us towards a postnormal ‘extended present’. Finally, it explores what PNT implies for futures studies and what it means to ‘be postnormal’.     

Welcome to postnormal times

All that was ‘normal’ has now evaporated; we have entered postnormal times, the in-between period where old orthodoxies are dying, new ones have not yet emerged, and nothing really makes sense. To have any notion of a viable future, we must grasp the significance of this period of transition which is characterised by three c's: complexity, chaos and contradictions. These forces propel and sustain postnormal times leading to uncertainty and different types of ignorance that make decision-making problematic and increase risks to individuals, society and the planet. Postnormal times demands, this paper argues, that we abandon the ideas of ‘control and management’, and rethink the cherished notions of progress, modernisation and efficiency. The way forward must be based on virtues of humility, modesty and accountability, the indispensible requirement of living with uncertainty, complexity and ignorance. We will have to imagine ourselves out of postnormal times and into a new age of normalcy—with an ethical compass and a broad spectrum of imaginations from the rich diversity of human cultures.     

Creative Inquiry: Confronting the challenges of scholarship in the 21st century

It is becoming increasingly apparent that creativity and imagination are key to envisioning alternatives to the problems of postnormal times. At the same time, educational institutions all over the globe are still mired in assumptions from the machine/industrial age, preparing students for reproduction and conformity rather than creativity. This article outlines the philosophical foundations of an educational approach in which creativity is central to scholarship, where learners move from being consumers to creators and from bystanders to participants in the postnormal dance of knowledge.     

Toward a new macrohistory: An extension to Sardar's ‘postnormal times’

How should futurists evaluate Sardar's announcement of ‘postnormal’ times? In contrast to existing images, what light does the postnormal metaphor shed on our global age? This paper views Sardar's postnormal times as embryonic, and extends it using ecosystems theory. To develop Sardar's concept as a macrohistory, Holling's adaptive cycle and panarchical systems are proposed as mechanisms of change that create postnormal times.     

Post-normal science in postnormal times

Post-normal science (PNS) was a herald of postnormal times. For Functowicz and Ravetz contemporary issues in which ‘facts are uncertain, values in dispute, stakes high and decisions urgent’ necessitate PNS. PNS deals with the postnormal character of contemporary challenges by bringing the contextualised insights of non-scientific stakeholders to bear through the formulation of ‘extended facts’. However, while the contextual content of ‘extended facts’ caters to the indeterminate character of postnormal issues this remains in tension with an implicit assumption that outcomes reflect the quality of the ‘facts’ informing them. This paper takes the claim that postnormal times involves ‘that we abandon…ideas of ‘control and management” seriously by arguing that science should be the servant of outcomes framed in, primarily, societal terms, rather than the other way around. This argument is illustrated using the example of fashioning an effective response to climate change.     

Frameworks for coping with post-normal times: A response to Ziauddin Sardar

This paper is a response to Ziauddin Sardar's “Welcome to postnormal times”. It agrees that times are indeed post normal, and discusses the reasons why this will continue. The paper then suggests three frameworks for helping people (and managers) recognise and deal with these times: a four level complexity hierarchy, scenarios, and the purposeful self-renewing organisation architecture.     

Postformal priorities for postnormal times: A rejoinder to Ziauddin Sardar

This essay is a postformal rejoinder to Ziauddin Sardar's Welcome to Postnormal Times. I have no quarrel with Sardar's conclusion that these times are postnormal, nor do I disagree with many of his observations, but our standpoints regarding implications are somewhat contradictory. Paradoxically, rather than jump into an old paradigm form of debate with Sardar's interpretations of postnormalcy, this rejoinder is a playful postformal response. I celebrate our complementary views as expressions of the complex truths of multiperspectivality. First I question the meaning of normal and postnormal in the context of such notions as “the pathology of normalcy.” Secondly I begin to explore the postnormal circumstances from a postformal perspective. This involves discussion of notions of progress, development, evolution and co-evolution from different points of view as an opener to coming to terms with complexity. I then explore how concepts such as complexity and paradox can be understood as paths to wisdom; how active imagination can be engaged in the service of life; and how engaged imagination can unfold new normative narratives of alternative futures. Such imaginaries of hope are vital for the wellbeing of young people. The essay closes with a call to embrace the richness of complexity and play with—rather than fear—the paradox of planetary pluralism.     

House Price Index Construction in the Nascent Housing Market: The Case of China

Most existing house price index construction methods are developed mainly based on transaction data from the secondary housing market, and are not necessarily suitable for the nascent housing markets where a predominant portion of housing transactions are new units. Using the booming market in China as an example, we evaluate and compare the performances of three most common house price measurement methods in the newly-built housing sector, including the simple average method without quality adjustment, the matching approach with the repeat sales modeling framework, and the hedonic modeling approach. Our analyses suggest that the simple average method fails to account for the substantial complex-level quality changes over time of sales during our sample period, and the matching model fails to control for the effect of developers’ pricing behaviors when adopted in the newly-built sector, hence both are downward biased. Based on this finding, we apply a hedonic method, which allows us to control for both quality changes over time of sales and developers’ pricing behaviors, to 35 major newly-built housing markets and provide the first multi-city constant-quality house price index in China. The new index reveals that the current Chinese housing market is facing a greater risk of mispricing than reported by the existing official metrics.     

Financial market development and the effectiveness of R&D investment: Evidence from developed and emerging countries

Does financial market development enhance the effectiveness of R&D investment in an economy? To address this question, we apply three distinct approaches including (i) ordinary least square method, (ii) cross-country instrumental variable regression approach, and (iii) panel regression method. By using a dataset of both developed and emerging countries, we find that financial market development significantly contributes to the effectiveness of total R&D investment. This finding remains robust across different model specifications and individual estimation methods. Our finding provides an important guidance to policy makers in implementing a sound financial environment that can facilitate the total contribution of R&D investment.     

Is there a postnormal time? From the illusion of normality to the design for a new normality

Ziauddin Sardar's characterization of ‘postnormal times’ elegantly captures the mood of despair, uncertainty and insecurity in the West due to the multiple shocks of terrorism, economic recession and climate change. However, the prevailing mood in India, most of Asia and developing countries in general is confidence and optimism for the future. The label ‘postnormal times’ is inappropriate for resurgent Asia and other ‘emerging markets’. Similarly, these countries - as illustrated by examples from India - need more modernization and efficiency to save and improve the lives of their citizens. This paper argues that the seeming normality of twentieth century in the West was an illusion arising out of the ignorance and neglect of environmental and health consequences of unbridled industrial growth. The distorted assumptions of neoclassical economics are largely to blame for this. It is now time to pay back for those excesses. A new normality will emerge only by addressing these distortions and by creating democratic global institutions that can reflect the changed global balance of power of the 21st century. The intellectuals, opinion-makers and leaders of the world have to exercise their ethical responsibility and creative imagination to enable this new normality to emerge.     

Metatheoretical foundations for post-normal risk

The first goal of this paper is to sketch a three-part, synoptic framework that could ease the way beyond the current impasse of competition among the various metatheoretical orientations (e.g. realism vs. social constructivism, positivism vs. cultural theory, etc.) in the risk field. The framework will be constructed on a foundation of metatheoretical principles and its form will accommodate the best features of the competing orientations. Because the articulated principles will build first on a position of realism, we can refer to the framework as a whole as Reconstructed Realism (RR). Because the content of the framework comprises its first two key parts, ontological realism and epistemological hierarchicalism , we can refer to the content by the acronym OREH. The second goal of the paper is to epistemically connect the synoptic framework, RR, to a methodological framework for conducting risk analysis, thereby providing a bridge between theory and practice. The existing methodological framework that bears logical symmetry to RR is the one developed by Funtowicz and Ravetz in a suite of papers (1985; 1991; 1992; 1993; 1994) and which they call 'post-normal science'. Connecting RR- the synoptic framework under development- with postnormal science completes the third part of the framework, and the resulting product is properly labelled 'post-normal risk.' Our life of fishing is so perilous that even though we worship all the gods in the world, many of us still die untimely deaths. Noriko Ogiwara, Dragon Sword and Wind Child     

Alliterative logic: A theory for postnormal times

This commentary responds to some of the issues raised in Zia Sardar's paper “Welcome to Postnormal Times” noting and attempting to explain points of difference and similarity. From Sardar's invocation of the 3C's of complexity, chaos and contradiction emerges the idea that our postnormal times might be likened to the strange times following the Great Plague that gave rise to the Alliterative Revival. Speculating further, it is questioned whether, in such strange times, utopian futures studies substitute for prayer.     

How we talk when we talk about nano: The future in laypeople's talk

Nanotechnology is an example of postnormal technoscience ‘in the making’: its concrete products and applications are currently only starting to trickle into the marketplace. In this paper I use nanotechnology as a case to examine how uncertain technoscientific futures are represented in lay talk. I engage with this question through a close analysis of focus group discussion around nanotechnology, describing the cultural and linguistic resources that participants draw upon in doing this, including personal experience and expertise, analogies and comparisons, and fiction and popular culture. These are, I suggest, the key discursive tools with which laypeople can weigh up and evaluate emerging technologies. However, I also argue that these are used flexibly to create different kinds of arguments in different conversational contexts, and use the example of nanotechnology as ‘the same’/’different’ to illustrate this. In concluding I reflect on the implications of these findings for scholars of public opinion and attitude and for those who frame policy on emerging and uncertain science and technology.     

Currency Hedging Using the Mean-Gini Framework

The mean-Gini framework has been suggested as a robust alternative to the portfolio approach to futures hedging given its optimality under general distributional conditions. However, calculation of the Gini hedge ratio requires estimation of the underlying price distribution. We estimate minimum-Gini hedge ratios using two widely-used estimation procedures, the empirical distribution function method and the kernel method, for three emerging market and three developed market currencies. We find that these methods yield different Gini hedge ratios. These differences increase with risk aversion and are statistically significant for all developed market currencies but only one emerging market currency. In-sample analyses show that the empirical distribution function method is more effective at risk reduction than the kernel method for developed market currencies, whereas the kernel method is superior for emerging market currencies. Post-sample analyses strengthen the superiority of the empirical distribution function method for developed market and, in several cases, for emerging market currencies.JEL Classification: F31, G15     

The fuzzy multicriteria analysis method: an application on NPV ranking

The Net Present Value (NPV) approach is often used as a tool to rank projects and it uses a total order approach. This paper applies a new method developed by De Baets and Van de Walle (1994, 1995) and which we will call ‘fuzzy multicriteria analysis’ (FMCA). The main objective of this new method is to weaken the total order into a fuzzy quasi-order in which incomparability between alternatives is possible. Although other methods such as Roy’s outranking method also deal with the issue of incomparability, there are important methodological differences between FMCA and outranking. We consider first an application of FMCA to a general NPV ranking problem. Some properties are derived which may be useful and we then describe an application to a practical example in which three projects yield the same NPV outcome. Different alpha-cuts imply different crisp quasi-orders. The use of FMCA shows that, in this sample case, though the projects have equal NPVs, a ranking may still be possible. Copyright © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

我国助学贷款实施难的成因分析

我国实施助学贷款政策已有数年,但其效果不尽人意。通过理论和实证的分析,我们发现既有体制上的矛盾、也有机制上的缺陷、还有相关主体认识上的问题。这些构成了我国助学贷款实施难的主要原因。     

An Asymptotic Expansion Approach to Pricing Financial Contingent Claims

We propose a new methodology for the valuation problem of financial contingent claims when the underlying asset prices follow a general class of continuous Itô processes. Our method can be applicable to a wide range of valuation problems including contingent claims associated with stocks, foreign exchange rates, the term structure of interest rates, and even their combinations. We illustrate our method by discussing the Black-Scholes economy when the underlying asset prices follow the continuous diffusion processes, which are not necessarily time-homogeneous. The standard Black-Scholes model on stocks and the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model on the spot interest rate are simple examples. Then we shall give a series of examples on the valuation formulae including plain vanilla options, average options, and other contingent claims. We shall also give some numerical evidence of the accuracy of the approximations we have obtained for practical purposes. Our approach can be rigorously justified by an infinite dimensional mathematics, the Malliavin-Watanabe-Yoshida theory recently developed in stochastic analysis.     

Performance measurement of hedge funds using data envelopment analysis

Data envelopment analysis (DEA) is a nonparametric method from the area of operations research that measures the relationship of produced outputs to assigned inputs and determines an efficiency score. This efficiency score can be interpreted as a performance measure in investment analysis. Recent literature contains intensive discussion of using DEA to measure the performance of hedge funds, as this approach yields some advantages compared to classic performance measures. This paper extends the current discussion in three aspects. First, we present different DEA models and analyze their suitability for hedge fund performance measurement. Second, we systematize possible inputs and outputs for DEA and again examine their suitability for hedge fund performance measurement. Third, two rules are developed to select inputs and outputs in DEA of hedge funds. Using this framework, we find a completely new ranking of hedge funds compared to classic performance measures and compared to previously proposed DEA applications. Thus, we propose that classic performance measures should be supplemented with DEA based on the suggested rules to fully capture hedge fund risk and return characteristics.      

我国居家养老中社区为老服务的均等化研究

随着国家对建立居家养老服务体系的不断重视,城乡社区为老服务得到较快发展。但是,我国目前社区为老服务存在着明显的不均等现象,城市多于农村,东部地区多于中西部地区,同时,各类社区服务供给和需求上还明显存在三类矛盾,因此,需要针对城乡和不同地区社区为老服务的实际情况与老年人的需求状况分别制定相应的措施。