Tobin tax and trading volume tightening: a reassessment

This article extends the previous literature on the Tobin tax. We find that very roughly, a doubling in transaction costs would reduce trading volume by 25% to 40% in the Forex. Most importantly, this article is the first contribution to specify the trading volume of the Forex through different (low and high volatility) regimes. Our results show evidence of nonlinear patterns for trading volumes and transaction costs on the Forex. Thus, the Tobin tax would not have a monotonic impact on trading activity across market conditions. The change in elasticity between low and high volatility regimes would be slight but significantly different. We may suggest that the high-variance regime might be the fundamentalist regime and the low-variance regime might be the chartist regime. It is a first step towards understanding which categories of agents would react to the introduction of a tax. Our results seem consistent with Tobin’s underlying thinking; since a tax would penalize chartists more than fundamentalists, it could reduce exchange rate volatility.     

Economic development and financial depth in a model with costly financial intermediation

According to Gurley and Shaw, economic development typically is accompanied by a transition from self-financed to intermediated investment activity. In their account, economic growth stimulates financial market development, and financial market development is a strong contributing factor in enhancing real growth. We model the co-evolution of the real and financial sectors during the growth process. To do so, we embed a role for liquidity provision into a conventional neoclassical growth model. Following Baumol and Tobin, we also introduce a fixed cost associated with “trips to the bank”. We describe conditions under which the development of a financial system may or may not proceed smoothly. When it does not, development traps are observed. We also discuss policy interventions that may reduce the potential for development traps to arise.     

The revenue potential of a financial transaction tax for US financial markets

This paper estimates the revenue potential of a financial transaction tax (FTT) for US financial markets. We focus on analyzing the revenue potential of the Inclusive Prosperity Act that was introduced in the US House of Representatives in 2012 and the US Senate in 2015. The tax rates stipulated in this Act include 0.5% (50 basis points (bps)) for all stock transactions, 0.1% (10 bps) for all bond transactions and 0.005% (0.5 bps) on the notional value of all derivative trades. We examine three sets of evidence to generate potential revenue estimates: 1) the levels of transaction costs in US financial markets over time and within the range of financial market segments; 2) the extent of trading elasticities under various trading conditions; and 3) the current level of trading activity in US financial markets. Based on this evidence, we conclude that a US FTT operating at the tax rates stated above would generate about $220 billion per year, equal to about 1.2% of the current US GDP.     

Modelling financial transaction price movements: a dynamic integer count data model

In this paper we develop a dynamic model for integer counts to capture fundamental properties of financial prices at the transaction level. Our model relies on an autoregressive multinomial component for the direction of the price change and a dynamic count data component for the size of the price changes. Since the model is capable of capturing a wide range of discrete price movements it is particularly suited for financial markets where the trading intensity is moderate or low. We present the model at work by applying it to transaction data of two shares traded at the NYSE traded over a period of one trading month. We show that the model is well suited to test some theoretical implications of the market microstructure theory on the relationship between price movements and other marks of the trading process. Based on density forecast methods modified for the case of discrete random variables we show that our model is capable to explain large parts of the observed distribution of price changes at the transaction level.

Sustainability-oriented future EU funding: a financial transaction tax

Although responsibility for realizing the Europe 2020 strategy is shared between the EU and its 28 member states, the main criticism of the current EU budget relates to the lack of a link between the budget and the Europe 2020 strategy. Therefore the paper focuses on a new budget design as well as alternative revenue sources. One of the possible candidates is a financial transaction tax (FTT). To research FTT revenue potential, a model based on a remittance system was designed. We analyse full or partial replacement of VAT- and GNI-based own resources by the transfer of tax revenues from a FTT raised on the national level to the EU budget. The research reveals that FTT-based own resource would be able to fully replace GNI-based own resource only for some EU member states; however, VAT-based own resource can be fully replaced by a FTT-based own resource for the entire EU. Further, results also show that from the EU11 (28) perspective, the tax is sufficient to fully replace VAT- or GNI-contributions if levied on the EU11 (28) level (not on the national level) as a direct payment to the EU budget without tracking the source member State.     

The impact of formal financial inclusion on informal financial intermediation and cash preference: evidence from Africa

This paper examines the effect of formal financial intermediation (inclusion) on informal financial intermediation and the use of cash for economic activities. Using data from the Global Findex 2014, we examine whether the use of formal financial intermediaries reduces cash preference and the use of informal financial intermediaries. Our empirical results show that informal financial intermediation is positively associated with formal financial inclusion. This indicates that the relationship between informal and formal financial intermediation is complementary rather than a trade-off, which demonstrates the importance of informal finance plays in the financial system of Africa. Moreover, the use of formal financial intermediaries significantly reduces the preference for holding cash, implying that a robust financial system infrastructure has the potential of mobilizing excess liquidity in the informal economy of Africa for growth and development.     

交易性金融资产财税处理差异

2007年新会计准则出台后,交易性金融资产的会计处理越加规范和细致,伴随而来的是交易性金融资产财税处理的差异性。交易性金融资产会计处理的要点是什么？不同的会计处理会带来什么样的财税差异？这些问题都是值得探析的课题。     

Asymmetric information, financial intermediation, and business cycles

Summary. This incorporates a debt contracting problem with asymmetric information into a standard monetary business cycle model. The model incorporates a limited participation assumption in order to induce a liquidity effect of monetary shocks and propagate monetary disturbances. The model economy shows that a positive money supply shock generates a decrease in nominal interest rates and an increase in output level. Asymmetric information amplifies the response of capital to the money supply shock, but does not propagate them in other ways. When the monetary shock is an innovation in reserve requirements, it induces a persistent response of the economy. Received: March 20, 1998; revised version: 1 April 1998     

The impact of the French financial transaction tax on HFT activities and market quality

Based on the first results, the French government estimates that the tax on cancelled orders, considered as tax on High Frequency Trading (HFT), generated no revenue in 2012. Our paper question the effectiveness of a modified cancelled order tax with no exemptions, all orders cancelled or modified within half-second time span are taxed. Our study has important implications for the regulation of HFT; we provide recommendations for regulators in relation to market rules which have yet to be introduced, using an artificial market framework. This paper addresses the question of whether this tax leads to a reduction in HFT activities and, as a result, to deterioration or amelioration of market quality. The evidence we provide should help market regulators to better understand the role played by HFT firms as liquidity suppliers. We show that HFT liquidity is short-lived. With the implementation of tax, decreased HFT activities do not have a statistically significant impact on market volatility and market liquidity measured by bid/ask spreads, but decrease dollar volumes as a liquidity measure. In addition, reduced HFT activities lead to less efficient markets as the deviation from fundamentals increases.     

Heterogeneous traders and the Tobin tax

To study the effectiveness of the Tobin tax, we develop a model of heterogeneous interacting agents. Traders either speculate on the basis of technical or fundamental analysis, or abstain from the market, a decision which depends on profit considerations, as well as communication between agents. Simulations generate stylized facts such as unit roots in exchange rates, fat tails for returns, or volatility clustering. The imposition of a Tobin tax leads to a crowding out of speculators and stabilizes the dynamics. However, the decreasing impact of fundamentalists triggers misalignments if tax rates are too high. RID="*" ID="*" Presented at the Economic Dynamics Workshop, Leiden, June 2002, and at the Computational Economics and Finance Workshop, Eltville, October 2002. I thank the participants for helpful discussions, especially Carl Chiarella, Cars Hommes, Seppo Honkapohja, Alan Kirman, Thomas Lux, Stefan Reitz, and Didier Sornette. I also thank two anonymous referees for their constructive comments.     

全球金融危机中消费型增值税对我国经济的影响

实行消费型增值税是我国的一项重大减税政策,是应对世界金融危机的积极财政政策的重要组成部分,是增加企业利润的有利因素,对刺激投资和经济回暖起到了一定的积极作用。     

中国金融脱媒度量及国际比较

本文采用中介化比率和证券化比率两套指标体系从银行、金融部门两个层次以及资产和负债两个方向度量了1978-2007年中国的金融脱媒,并与美国、日本同期的金融脱媒指标进行了比较。结果表明:(1)我国银行业的金融脱媒将贯穿于金融市场发展的整个过程中;(2)中国金融部门的资产方很可能会出现一个中介化比例先下降,之后回调上升的过程,但回调到什么点是有待检验的问题;(3)我国非银行金融机构在吸纳资金、提供资金两方面都的作用都不明显,但考虑到我国在金融市场发展的阶梯上仍处于较低的阶段,未来我国非银行金融机构在吸纳经济中的盈余资金上可能会具有较大的潜力。     

US income taxation of new financial products

This paper discusses the response of the US federal income tax to financial innovation. Income taxation in the US and elsewhere has traditionally relied on distinctions, such as the difference between fixed and contingent returns, that can be undermined by new financial products. The principal tax law responses to innovative products have been: (1) transactional analysis, which aggregates or disaggregates new transactions to conform them to existing legal categories, (2) taxation of changes in market value, rather than realization events, (3) taxation based on an assumed formula, and (4) anti-avoidance administrative approaches.     

The dynamic welfare cost of seignorage tax and consumption tax in a neoclassical growth model with a cash-in-advance constraint

Using a public finance approach, this study investigates welfare costs between seignorage and consumption taxes in a standard growth model. One of these two taxes is used to finance exogenous public spending to balance the government budget. The steady-state welfare cost of consumption taxes is lower if the consumption effect dominates the leisure effect. This paper compares equilibrium along transitional dynamic and steady-state paths and finds that because of lower consumption and leisure and thus higher welfare costs of consumption taxes during early periods, the welfare cost of consumption taxes is larger than the welfare cost of seignorage taxes.     

我国农村金融抑制与金融深化问题浅析

自从20世纪70年代初美国经济学家麦金农和肖提出金融深化以来，该理论逐渐发展成为发展经济学的重要组成部分，并对广大发展中国家的经济实践产生了巨大的影响。本文在对金融深化理论进行综述的基础上，从金融抑制角度分析了目前我国农村金融体系存在的主要问题，并相应提出我国农村金融深化的一些政蓑、措施。     

The role of financial shocks in business cycles with a liability side financial friction

The paper investigates the role of investment specific technology shock within the particular type of financial friction of Gertler and Karadi (2011) and the impact of direct financial shock into this, such as a net worth shock, using US data. The paper explicitly shows how the bank balance sheet effect of counter cyclical movement of capital price attenuates such investment shocks and the extent depends on the type of financial shocks included in the model. Because of the construction of capital quality shock in such financial friction model, we need to incorporate a direct net worth shock while analysing the role of financial shock. This highlights finance sector as a fundamental source of shocks apart from amplifier of shocks originating in elsewhere of the economy.     

The relationship between insurance and economic growth in Europe: a theoretical and empirical analysis

The role of insurance companies, although growing in importance in financial intermediation, has received less attention than bank and stock markets and if so, mainly as a provider of risk transfer in single country or very heterogeneous samples. We investigate both the impact of insurance investment and premiums on GDP growth in Europe. We conduct a cross-country panel data analysis from 1992 to 2005 for 29 European countries. We find a positive impact of life insurance on GDP growth in the EU-15 countries, Switzerland, Norway and Iceland. For the New EU Member States from Central and Eastern Europe, we find a larger impact for liability insurance. Furthermore our findings emphasise the impact of the real interest rate and the level of economic development on the insurance-growth nexus. We argue that the insurance sector needs to be paid more attention in financial sector analysis and macroeconomic policy.

税务筹划在工资薪金税负中的运用

工资薪金是个人收入的主要形式,超额累进税制和各种抵扣项目政策的存在,为税务筹划在工资薪金税负中的运用,提供了一定的空间。根据现行工资薪金个人所得税的政策法规,结合各单位的实际情况,工资薪金税负税务筹划的基本思路应从降低应纳税所得额和降低边际税率两个方面入手。     

The transmission of financial shocks in an estimated DSGE model with housing and banking

We develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with housing and banking to study the transmission of financial shocks between the financial and real sectors. A deterioration in the bank's balance sheet induced by financial shocks could have amplified and persistent impacts on real activities. The amplification of the shocks are originated from financial frictions tied to households and banks. We find that a disruption in bank net worth initiated by capital quality shocks generates a decline in household loans, house prices and output. Bank liquidity shocks also have negative effects on these variables. Housing preference shocks could generate a positive comovement between house prices and output. All these findings are qualitatively consistent with empirical evidence, suggesting that these financial shocks are critical to the dynamics of house prices and other macroeconomic variables.     

The impact of tax reforms on unemployment in a SMOPEC

This paper analyzes revenue-neutral tax reforms for a small open economy which is constrained to a balanced current account and whose producers have market power on the world market. We consider origin-based and destination-based commodity taxes as well as taxes on income, the payroll, and on an imported factor of production. Our main findings are the following. First, the strength, and for some parameter constellations, even the sign of the employment effect of tax reforms varies with the degree of openness of the economy. Second, the indeterminacy of the sign of the employment effect crucially hinges on the presence of an internationally mobile factor. The central mechanism underlying our results are adjustments of the real exchange rate which have repercussions on wage and price setting and therefore on employment.