Planetary boundaries: implications for asset impairment

Scientific findings support the existence of nine planetary boundaries which define a safe operating space for humanity and the conditions necessary to sustain human life. The declining state of the environment (4 of the 9 boundaries have been breached) creates significant risk factors for asset impairment. Risks result not only from environmental challenges and resulting resource constraints (e.g. limits to fossil fuel extraction and carbon constraints) but also changing technology landscapes and social expectations. This article is one of the first to discuss the implications of changes in planetary boundary conditions for asset impairment and recognising an impairment event and sets out an agenda for future research.     

Financial process mining - Accounting data structure dependent control flow inference

The increasing integration of computer technology for the processing of business transactions and the growing amount of financially relevant data in organizations create new challenges for external auditors. The availability of digital data opens up new opportunities for innovative audit procedures. Process mining can be used as a novel data analysis technique to support auditors in this context. Process mining algorithms produce process models by analyzing recorded event logs. Contemporary general purpose mining algorithms commonly use the temporal order of recorded events for determining the control flow in mined process models. The presented research shows how data dependencies related to the accounting structure of recorded events can be used as an alternative to the temporal order of events for discovering the control flow. The generated models provide accurate information on the control flow from an accounting perspective and show a lower complexity compared to those generated using timestamp dependencies. The presented research follows a design science research approach and uses three different real world data sets for evaluation purposes.     

Capital markets research and real world complexity: The emerging challenge of chaos theory

The theories of chaos and complexity are presented as a wide-ranging new vision of the relationship between order and disorder, a new vision that is challenging many of the fundamental presuppositions of the older Newtonian world view of science. The implications of the new vision are explored in terms of their challenges to the methodological views widely espoused by capital market researchers in accounting, most notably with respect to the assumptions of linearity and predictability. Mandelbrot's early studies of economics and financial time series data, which provided many of the insights for his conception of fractals, are reviewed in terms of their challenges to the conceptual framework of the traditonal capital markets research paradigm and its extension to financial reporting issues. Contemporary studies which are reviving Mandelbrot's challenges are also reviewed, with the conclusion that they are weakening the intellectual hold of the tradtional capital markets paradigm and making it more susceptible to overthrow by a competing paradigm. Finally, an emerging new research program associated with the Santa Fe Institute (SFI) is reviewed. SFI researchers are studying financial markets as complex adaptive systems. Their preliminary findings are incompatible with the widely presumed theoretical linkage between financial reporting systems and economic efficiency, and they tend to undermine the traditonal rationale relating earnings to stock prices.     

An appreciation of contemporary settlement morphology

This paper uses interpretive structural modelling as a heuristic tool for exploring the complexity of human settlements. It attempts to integrate ideas from general systems theory, policy sciences, and the science of human settlements (ekistics) into a paradigm of inquiry that is particularly suited to the investigation of alternative futures for human settlements. In recognising the diversity and complexity of perceptions, it adopts a particular morphology and suggests how interpretive structural modelling can be used to explore relationships among sets of relevant elements.     

Peer review and the relevance of science

Recent science-policy debates have emphasised a growing role for science in helping to address some of society's most pressing challenges such as global environmental change, caring for the needs of ageing populations, and competitiveness in a global age. Other ‘relevance’ pressures include drives for public accountability, pressure for the ‘democratisation’ of science and demands from industry for usable knowledge. Underlying the question of the social relevance of science is the matter of decision-making and quality control in science, usually via the peer-review process. Peer review plays a central role in many of the key moments in science. It is the main form of decision-making around grant selection, academic publishing and the promotion of individual scientists within universities and research institutions. It also underpins methods used to evaluate scientific institutions. Yet, peer review as currently practised can be narrowly scientific, to the exclusion of other pressing quality criteria relating to social relevance. It is often also controlled and practised by scientists to the exclusion of wider groups that might bring valuable perspectives. This article sets out to examine peer review through the lens of social relevance. It challenges peer review as currently practised and makes some suggestions for ways forward.     

A practitioner’s view of the future of futures studies

This article looks at the future of futures studies (FS) over the next 20 years from a practitioner’s viewpoint. It begins with favorable developments for FS in the organizational context. The main body covers how FS can take advantage of these more favorable developments. It then anticipates some key methodological and professional challenges and how FS might meet them. It concludes with a few comments about the prospects for a self-actualized FS.The single biggest challenge for FS over the next generation from my practitioner’s point-of-view is to get beyond the cyclicality of interest in the future and get FS firmly integrated into the organizational context. Our experience to date convinces me that we have earned “the right to practice,” and we must now focus the next few decades on sinking roots “inside”. The good news is that there are several developments suggesting that this is not just a preferable but also a probable future.     

Einfluß der Besteuerung in der wertorientierten Performancemessung im Kompositversicherungsunternehmen

The tax regulation framework is an important influence factor for value based management. So the implications of taxation on management decisions have to be explicitly verified and quantified within the valuation concepts. In this paper we take that point into account by extending the model for value based management of a composit-insurance company developed in the article from Schmautz and Hartung (ZVersWiss 98(4):411–430, 2009) by the framework of taxation. In the discussion we focus the effects of taxation and creation of provisions on the shareholder cashflow. Again the study examines theoretical aspects on the one hand and practical aspects with the special focus on an examplary implementation on the other hand.     

Discussion of empirical research on accounting choice

This discussion considers four aspects of the survey paper on empirical accounting choice research by Fields, Lys and Vincent: implications of the authors’ selection of an expansive definition of accounting choice and their decision to classify this research by managerial motives; implications of the authors’ decision to include implementation decisions in their definition of accounting choice; implications of the authors’ call for research on the consequences of accounting choice, including the costs of defective accounting choices and the benefits of superior choices; implications of the authors’ call for a reconsideration of research designs that explicitly consider groups of accounting choices.     

Cognitive science and decision making research in accounting

The purpose of this paper is to discuss the relevance of cognitive science to decision-making research in accounting. First, the context into which it interfaces the field of accounting is reviewed. Next, the cognitive science applications to accounting are presented and evaluated as they relate to four levels of investigation. The paper concludes with implications for future research as well as a discussion of methodological issues which must be addressed.     

Dialectical possibilities of thwarted responsibilities

The university’s responsibility in the new world dominated by global organizations is to articulate the contemporary socio-economic challenges brought about by the globalization of capital and capitalistic enterprises, enlighten society to the implications, and formulate and disseminate means for responding in an informed and just manner to the challenges. The paper argues that the colonization of the lifeworld of the university, especially schools and departments of accounting, has, and continues to, inhibit, indeed actively thwarts, the academy in carrying out its social responsibility. In a previous work (Dillard & Tinker, 1996), the authors argue that the international management system is directly implicated in dictating process and content within business schools by, among other things, influencing the accreditation standards of the American Assembly of Collegiate Schools of Business (AACSB).The current paper evaluates the developments subsequent to the total quality management (TQM) based accreditation standards implemented in the early 1990s. The focus is primarily on accounting education, accounting department/schools, and the accounting academic. A case is made for the position that the new Baldridge Award criteria for education performance excellence, the new AACSB accounting accreditation guidelines approved in 2000, the revolutionary changes in the constitution and by-laws of Beta Alpha Psi (the US professional accounting fraternity), and the current position of the American Accounting Association (AAA) as articulated in AAA monograph (Accounting Education Series, No. 16) by Albrecht and Sack are manifestations of the managerialist influence continuing to at best neutralize the academy’s responsibilities to any constituencies other than global capitalism primarily articulated in the demands of the Big 5 professional service (formally accounting) firms. The discussion evaluates the recommendations of each of the four regulative documents in terms of the underlying ideology and concludes with a discussion of the dialectic possibilities confronting accounting education.     

Food in the future: Does futures studies have a role to play?

Futures studies (FS) has not taken up food as a topic to any degree perhaps because of complexity, gender, urban bias, professional bias, cultural diversity, and fear. But there is a need and responsibility for FS scholars and practitioners to consider the growing and preparation of food in our work. Today's movements in food security, organic farming and Slowfood can direct us towards futures based in healthy, diverse, and joyful communities.     

E-business audit: Advisory jurisdiction or occupational invasion?

This study sets out to examine the impact of technological change on the external audit function of e-businesses and, specifically, the professionals involved in executing it. Utilising semi-structured interviews combined with a questionnaire survey, this paper explores the possible implications of developments in e-business audit for financial auditors as a professional group. The findings suggest that the traditional authority enjoyed by external financial auditors is being, and will be, increasingly challenged by IT audit specialists. The role of the professional bodies, responsible for the education and training of financial audit professionals, in particular, is highlighted as key to the outcome if they are to fend off challenges in this growing arena and retain jurisdictional control.     

Futures studies as a civilizational catalyst

By the early 21st century, Futures Studies (FS) had developed into a globe-spanning meta-discipline with a range of methodologies, a rich literature and a substantial knowledge base. A small, but growing, number of universities around the world provided advanced degrees in FS. Yet, in spite of the wide use of futures methods such as the Delphi technique, trend analysis and scenario planning in pursuit of corporate strategies, substantive futures perspectives focused on long-range civilizational concerns remained underdeveloped or absent within most organizations and environments. This paper considers the rise of FS during the 20th century, some implications for FS of what I have called the ‘civilizational challenge’ and a number of strategies that may be used to increase the take-up and effectiveness of futures work over coming decades. The paper takes the view that the ultimate goal of FS at this time is to help create the foundations of a new civilization.     

Creativity and the role of the leader

In today's innovation-driven economy, understanding how to generate great ideas has become an urgent managerial priority. Suddenly, the spotlight has turned on the academics who've studied creativity for decades. How relevant is their research to the practical challenges leaders face? To connect theory and practice, Harvard Business School professors Amabile and Khaire convened a two-day colloquium of leading creativity scholars and executives from companies such as Google, IDEO, Novartis, Intuit, and E Ink. In this article, the authors present highlights of the research presented and the discussion of its implications. At the event, a new leadership agenda began to take shape, one rooted in the awareness that you can't manage creativity--you can only manage for creativity. A number of themes emerged: The leader's job is not to be the source of ideas but to encourage and champion ideas. Leaders must tap the imagination of employees at all ranks and ask inspiring questions. They also need to help their organizations incorporate diverse perspectives, which spur creative insights, and facilitate creative collaboration by, for instance, harnessing new technologies. The participants shared tactics for enabling discoveries, as well as thoughts on how to bring process to bear on creativity without straitjacketing it. They pointed out that process management isn't appropriate in all stages of creative work; leaders should apply it thoughtfully and manage the handoff from idea generators to commercializers deftly. The discussion also examined the need to clear paths through bureaucracy, weed out weak ideas, and maximize the organization's learning from failure. Though points of view varied, the theories and frameworks explored advance the understanding of creativity in business and offer executives a playbook for increasing innovation.     

Post-normal institutional identities: Quality assurance,reflexivity and ethos of care

This paper suggests adopting a ‘post-normal science’ (PNS) style and practice in scientific advice, and motivate the urgency of this methodological stance with the increasing complexity, and polarisation affecting the use of science-based evidence for policy. We reflect on challenges and opportunities faced by a ‘boundary organisation’ that interfaces between science and policy, taking as example the European Commission’s Directorate General Joint Research Centre, whose mission is stated as that to be the “in-house science service”. We suggest that such an institution can be exemplary as to what could be changed to improve the quality of evidence feeding into the policy processes in the European Union. This paper suggests how an in-house culture of reflexivity and humility could trigger changes in the existing styles and methods of scientific governance; at the JRC, taken as example, this would mean opening up to the existing plurality of norms and styles of scientific inquiry, and adopting more participatory approaches of knowledge production, assessment and governance. We submit that the institutional changes advocated here are desirable and urgent in order to confront the ongoing erosion of trust in ‘evidence based policy’, anticipating controversies before they become evident in the institutional setting in which institutions operate.     

Understandings of accountability: an autoethnographic account using metaphor

The practical engagement of developing social accounts has provided me with an opportunity to consider different understandings of accountability. My reflective personal account, an autoethnography, explores difference in approaches to and insights into accountability in practice. The changed understandings of accountability developed during and after the production of two sets of social accounts with a not-for-profit organization. As part of the sense making process within the personal account, generative metaphor is used to enable reflection on the problem of accountability within social accounts. In this case the problem is both acknowledging and recognising the effect of my approach to and understandings of accountability during the production and reporting of two social accounts. The first social account was developed with a more formal and instrumental approach to accountability than the second which drew upon the initial experience and understanding of the first included a broader and more complex view of accountability. The recognition of a changed appreciation of accountability through the experience provides a deeper view of how accountability can be played out in practice with a not-for-profit community based organization. The result is my acknowledgement of a broader more encompassing notion of the complexity of accountability as part of a fragmented and changing world (Miller, 2002). By acknowledging this complexity I have opened a space that enables me to recognise the influence of my approach to accountability in practice. There is a need to recognise how we approach accountability in order to counter the current dominance of calculative forms of accountability from the ‘business case’ perspective supporting control of powerful elites that steer society. An accountability that includes complexity and the non-calculative is a more appropriate form for a not-for-profit organization rather than a dominant calculative accountability.     

Investigating science for governance through the lenses of complexity

This paper assesses the contributions of complexity theory to post-normal science. The oversupply of facts in science for governance is explained as a matter of complexity, defined as irreducible pluralism in the knowledge base. The paper shows how complexity provides an interface to engage with the multiple facts of science through three different examples. First, water narratives are used to show how different scales of analysis produce contradictory scientific representations of the same system. Second, smart electricity grids are assessed to demonstrate how different levels of uncertainty are associated with different representations. Third, the case of slum upgrading is used to discuss the need to take into account stakes in science for governance.     

Empirical Estimates of Beta When Investors Face Estimation Risk

We examine empirical implications of models of differential information that formalize the following intuition: securities for which there is relatively little information are perceived as relatively more risky because of the greater uncertainty surrounding the exact parameters of their return distributions. The implication that beta risk for low information firms should decline as information increases is confirmed with several data sets. We find such a decline over the first several periods subsequent to initial public offerings and initial listings. There is also an abrupt risk decline at the first annual earnings announcement.     

真实经济周期理论评论

不同于凯恩斯等学派的货币产出关系论,真实经济周期理论认为是产出等真实经济决定货币变动而不是相反,货币只是纯粹的面纱。真实经济周期理论关于货币政策作用机制的论述代表了货币政策调控与经济周期关系研究的新进展。这种观点从一种全新的视角为我们打开了思路,对于我国在货币政策调控上应注重需求管理与供给管理政策相结合等颇具启发意义,但其假设前提及其政策无效论与现实不符。     

Futures studies in the 21st Century: a reality-based view

Futures-thinking in various ways may or may not be expanding. But it is clearly an ever-changing activity, and appears to be ever more fragmented by culture, subject matter, style, and ideology. ‘Futures Studies (FS)’ as a subset of this larger activity is highly problematic as a viable entity, due to seven disabling myths: that FS is a field, that futurists are generalists, that futurists are primarily ‘futurists’, that FS does what no one else does, that FS is generally understood and appreciated, that FS is static, and that FS is a community. In contrast to these idealized but unsupported myths, the world of futures-thinking is presented as it really is, based on the author’s preparation of over 20,000 abstracts of futures-relevant literature over the past 30 years. Underlying complexity and wide diversity are sketched in three synoptic charts on the six purposive categories of futures-thinking (and 115 different terms that have been used), 17 general topical categories, and 12 generic continua on which futures-thinkers can be located. Based on this complex and fuzzy reality, futures studies should embrace its distinctiveness and strive to be a horizontal field connecting all others—a visible, respected, and ever-renewing network of humble hubs for integrative ‘big picture’ thinking about trends and visions of probable, possible, and preferable futures. To attain this status in the decades ahead, FS must communicate a shared and frequently-revised vision, emphasize all six purposive categories (especially integration and questioning), develop a serious global information system (and use it), establish an academic presence at leading institutions, fight back against ignorant futurist-bashers, promote multiple excellences, engage in ‘second profession’ recruitment and training, and secure adequate funding. These actions are necessary for establishing any meaningful ‘futures studies’ community.