Ambiguity aversion and the absence of indexed debt

Summary. Following the seminal works of Schmeidler (1989), Gilboa and Schmeidler (1989), roughly put, an agents subjective beliefs are said to be ambiguous if the beliefs may not be represented by a unique probability distribution, in the standard Bayesian fashion, but instead by a set of probabilities. An ambiguity averse decision maker evaluates an act by the minimum expected value that may be associated with it. In spite of wide and long-standing support among economists for indexation of loan contracts there has been relatively little use of indexation, except in situations of extremely high inflation. The object of this paper is to provide a (theoretical) explanation for this puzzling phenomenon based on the hypothesis that economic agents are ambiguity averse. The paper considers a general equilibrium model based on Magill and Quinzii (1997) with ambiguity averse agents, where both nominal and indexed bond contracts are available for trade and all relevant prices are determined endogenously. We obtain conditions which prompt an endogenous cessation of trade in indexed bonds: i.e., conditions under which there is no trade in indexed bonds in any equilibrium; only nominal bonds are traded.Received: 7 April 2003, Revised: 8 March 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: D81, E31, D52, E44.Correspondence to: Sujoy MukerjiWe thank seminar members at Birkbeck, Oxford, Paris I, Southampton and Tel Aviv, the audience at the 00 European Workshop on General Equilibrium Theory, and especially, E.Dekel, I. Gilboa, D. Schmeidler and A. Pauzner for helpful comments. The first author acknowledges financial assistance from an Economic and Social Research Council of U.K. Research Fellowship (# R000 27 1065). The second author thanks financial support from the French Ministry of Research (Action Concertée Incitative).     

依法治税存在的问题及对策

依法治税是新时期做好税收工作的基本点。建立符合社会主义市场经济体制要求的税收立法机制;完善税收法律体制,树立法律权威;强化税收执法和税收司法,有效制止和惩治税收违法犯罪活动是现阶段依法治税的目标和任务。     

Regulatory Optimal Bank Size

This paper presents a study of potential outcomes of bank growth. Banks grow by expanding market presence within the geographic region within which they are domiciled and by expanding presence into other regions via new implantations. Growth leads to improved diversification, but also results in an increase in the risk of catastrophe that a bank’s failure may engender. The conclusion is that there will exist a threshold size of bank at which the rate of growth in its systemic risk exceeds the rate of decline in its risk of insolvency. An empirical study of US bank call report data provides results that are consistent with the theory presented in the first part of the paper.

国外的生态税收政策与我国生态税制建设构想

20世纪90年代以来,一些发达国家为了解决环境问题,纷纷展开生态税收改革,建立起了比较完善的生态税制,使税收在环境保护中发挥了巨大作用.我国应借鉴其先进经验,建立并完善我国的生态税制,以实现经济的可持续发展.     

刍议信息化纳税信息服务的优化

我国的纳税信息服务(即税收宣传)与税收咨询工作存在着受传统模式影响较深、内容相对简单、效率相对低下等问题,应借鉴国际先进经验,强化人力资源的培训,构建统一服务平台,完善质量监管体系等,以实现信息化纳税信息服务的优化.     

税收管理中的寻租博弈与治理路径

博弈论作为现代经济问题研究的一项重要工具,可用来揭示税收管理中的各种对抗与合作规律,减少管理决策的错误,降低管理成本,提高管理效率。税收活动作为政府调节社会经济活动的手段,由于不同的利益主体存在信息不对称,易诱发"设租"与"寻租"行为。如何合理界定"租金"价值,设计科学的治理路径以抑制税收管理过程中的寻租行为,提高资源配置和使用效率,意义重大。     

Does taxation have real effects on agricultural output? Theory and empirical evidence from China

China has a long history of taxing agriculture, with special levies on output. Whether farm households are taxed on a lump-sum basis or as a proportion of output is an important issue. This paper develops a theoretical model to understand better the effects of the lump-sum and proportional taxation on agricultural output. It then empirically investigates the predictions using tax and output data on Chinese agriculture. The theoretical model predicts that lump-sum taxation affects only consumption, while proportional taxation simultaneously affects consumption, capital inputs and final output. Although the main tax policy targeted output, our results suggest that taxation had only a modest impact on output since it was effectively applied as lump sum taxation brought about by localized levies and taxes.     

Information-based contagion and the implications for financial fragility

This paper explores a global game model of information-based financial contagion. By revealing information on a common fundamental factor and thereby affecting the behavior of creditors, the failure of a single firm can trigger the failure of another firm. The model provides a unique equilibrium framework to assess the consequences of contagion and yields some hitherto unnoticed insights. While contagion increases the correlation among the financial failures of different firms, its impact on the incidence of failure is ambiguous. I consider an analytically tractable version of the model in which the effect on the ex ante failure probabilities is exactly zero. Moreover, the impact of contagion increases with the relevance of a common underlying fundamental, but is limited to firms near the brink of success or failure.     

What Explains Herd Behavior in the Chinese Stock Market?

This article examines the causes of herd behavior in the Chinese stock market. Using the nonlinear model of Chang, Cheng, and Khorana [2000 Chang, E. C., J. W. Cheng, and A. Khorana. “An Examination of Herd Behavior in Equity Markets: An International Perspective.” Journal of Banking and Finance, 24, (2000), pp. 1651–1679.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]], the authors of this article find robust evidence of herding in both the up and down markets. They contribute to the existing literature by exploring the underlying reasons for herding in China. It is shown that analyst recommendation, short-term investor horizon, and risk are the principal causes of herding. However, the authors cannot find evidence that relates herding to firm size, nor can they detect significant differences in herding between state-owned enterprises and non–state-owned enterprises.     

中国系统性风险综合指数构建与评估研究--基于主成分分析方法

2008年的全球性金融危机引发了世界各国对系统性风险的格外关注。文章讨论系统性风险含义及其识别指标,基于2004-2012年中国宏观经济与金融系统的实证数据,采用主成分分析方法构建了系统性风险评估指标体系,实证评估分析了中国系统性风险综合水平与结构分布的演绎特征。分析表明在研究期内系统性风险综合水平经历了下降、震荡与上升三个阶段,2009年中期至2012年属于系统性风险上升期,其中,房地产市场泡沫、政府债务、经济增长方式与金融体制效率等风险形式是现阶段系统性风险的主要构成因素。因此,研究认为系统性风险防控极为必要,而且从改革财政税收体制、完善政府债务管理制度、理顺收入分配机制以及推动金融自由化等方面提出了系统性风险防控的具体措施。     

Equilibrium asset pricing with systemic risk

We provide an equilibrium multi-asset pricing model with micro- founded systemic risk and heterogeneous investors. Systemic risk arises due to excessive leverage and risk taking induced by free-riding externalities. Global risk-sensitive financial regulations are introduced with a view of tackling systemic risk, with Value-at-Risk a key component. The model suggests that risk-sensitive regulation can lower systemic risk in equilibrium, at the expense of poor risk-sharing, an increase in risk premia, higher and asymmetric asset volatility, lower liquidity, more comovement in prices, and the chance that markets may not clear. We thank Michel Habib, José Scheinkman, Hyun Shin and two anonymous referees for their helpful comments. Jean-Pierre Zigrand is a lecturer in Finance at the LSE, and is the corresponding author. The authors would like to acknowledge financial support under the EPSRC Grant GR/S83975/01 at the Financial Markets Group, London School of Economics.     

在科学发展观下建立绿色税收体系

随着经济的发展,社会环境与经济发展矛盾日益尖锐,在科学发展观下建立绿色税收体系的提出正是为了顺应社会发展趋势,为缓解和解决这一矛盾提供有效的途径。     

依法治税和纳税服务——基于国家税收和公共税收的视角

依法治税和纳税服务是现阶段税收的两大任务。对两者的认识,不能孤立地或对立地看,而是要在社会主义市场经济下的税收应是国家税收和公共税收的统一的视角下加以把握。从这一认识出发,我们就能真正做到坚持依法治税,优化纳税服务,服务科学发展,就能探索出一条中国特色社会主义市场经济条件下的纳税服务新路。