大宗商品中远期交易市场存在的风险与对策

近年来,全国各地大宗商品中远期交易市场发展迅速,已成为商业流通体系中不可忽视的一支力量。但由于市场本身问题以及监管主体与监管政策的缺失,导致市场混乱无序,由市场违规操作问题引发的矛盾和纠纷屡见不鲜,并严重侵害了投资者合法权益。为维护市场秩序、保护投资者合法权益,本文对中远期市场展开调研,以揭示对中远期市场与期货市场认识上的误区,阐述中远期市场存在的问题,并且据此提出了完善期货市场体系建设、强化期货市场监管等方面的建议。     

大宗商品电子交易市场何去何从

我国大宗商品电子交易市场始于1997年,经当时国内贸易部（现商务部）批准．国家经贸委等八部委进行联合论证成立的一种新型现货交易模式．即通过网络与电子商务搭建的平台,对相应物品进行即期现货或中远期订货交易的市场。目前,此类市场的管理规范和法律依据主要是2003年7月出台的《大宗商品电子交易规范》和2004年8月人大常委会通过的《电子签名法》。2005年1月8日,国务院办公厅发布的《关于加快电子商务发展的若干意见》,对促进这类市场的发展也发挥了一定的作用。     

大宗农产品远期交易市场模式的定位分析——兼论生猪电子盘

对大宗农产品电子交易市场到底是变相现货,还是变相期货的多方质疑,凸现出对这种远期交易商业模式的现实及理论的困惑,以生猪电子盘为例,参照现货交易、期货交易,从市场结构、市场功能、市场合约、市场监管、市场目标五个方面对这种商业模式进行了定位分析,得出结论:大宗农产品电子交易是以现货交易为基础、以远期交易为主体、以期货交易为机制的一种B2B的电子商务平台;并提出相应的政策建议。     

大宗商品电子交易市场的支付手段

大宗商品电子交易市场特指专业从事电子买卖交易套保的大宗类商品批发市场。作为B2B电子商务第三方交易市场的一种重要交易模式,其实质依然是信息流、资金流、物流服务的综合。其中,作为交易中最重要的环节支付的实现、资金流的解决显得尤为重要。     

存款准备金率何处何从

<正>在前年1月至去年7月的19个月时间里,央行连续12次上调存款准备率,其中,后8次连创历史新高,最后达到21.5%,期间,还连续5次加息。随后,央行于去年12月和今年2月,连续两次下调存款准备率。今年3月,温总理在两会政府工作报告上要求保持社会融资规模合理增长。作为调节社会融资规模的存款准备金率,将何处何从?本文试图通过回顾和分析存款准备金率与基准利率、CPI、GDP等指标及其相互关系,来研究、探寻它的走向,求教大家。     

存款准备金率何处何从

<正>在前年1月至去年7月的19个月时间里,央行连续12次上调存款准备率,其中,后8次连创历史新高,最后达到21.5%,期间,还连续5次加息。随后,央行于去年12月和今年2月,连续两次下调存款准备率。今年3月,温总理在两会政府工作报告上要求"保持社会融资规模合理增长"。作为调节社会融资规模的存款准备金率,将何处何从?本文试图通过回顾和分析存款准备金率与基准利率、CPI、GDP等指标及其相互关系,来研究、探寻它的走向,求教大家。     

我国中远期现货电子交易市场的典型特征及发展瓶颈研究

我国中远期现货电子交易市场近年来发展迅速,但国内对这种市场的本质还缺乏了解,本文通过对我国中远期现货电子交易市场典型特征和发展瓶颈的分析,提出了促进市场发展的相关对策建议     

行为金融学理论综述及其发展展望

行为金融学通过心理学与金融学的有机结合，分析投资者心理对其投资决策的影响，进而分析投资者心理对市场走势的影响。替代传统标准金融学的理性行为假定，从正常行为分析和噪声交易行为出发，行为金融学对于传统金融学所不能合理解释的投资者行为决策，提供了更加实际的、合理的解释路径，并企图揭示投资者的行为特征和市场规律。     

从繁复向简单回归:全球金融衍生品市场发展展望

金融危机之后,全球金融衍生品市场经历了下调到反弹的过程。场内市场交易量的放大、买卖价差的收窄,以及OTC市场的未偿付合约名义价值等指标都表明了这一走势。同时,金融衍生品市场也将呈现结构性分化:一是基础性衍生品将成为未来一段时期衍生品发展的主流;二是结构简单、标准化程度高的单一卖方CDS将受欢迎;三是亚太地区金融衍生品市场表现出巨大的潜力。最后,中央交易机制的建立和合约标准化的加强都将成为金融衍生品监管的趋势。     

银行:企业进行大宗商品场外交易的助力者

近年来,境内商业银行金融市场业务发展迅猛,尤以企业客户出于风险管理目的进行的套期保值交易增长更为突出。这既是境内企业对外经济活动在质和量上增加的结果,也反映了中国金融市场的改革、人民币利率和汇率制度的演进以及外汇管理政策的放松,促进了企业和机构客户释放对冲市场风险的实际需求。同汇率、利率套期保值交易相比,大宗商品衍生品交易在国内开展的历史比较短,但它契合了企业实际业务需要,意义重大。在大宗商品产业链上,国际市场的商品价格在各类商品定价中一直占有主导地位,国际期货市场是商品价格发现的基础来源。帮助国内企业对冲国际大宗商品市场价格波动的风险,是摆在银行面前的一个重要的业务机会。本文从银行角度对如何在境内帮助企业客户对冲国际市场商品价格的风险进行了分析。     

The electronic trading systems and bid-ask spreads in the foreign exchange market

This paper examines the impact of electronic trading systems on the bid-ask spreads in the foreign exchange market. The paper finds: first, the EBS reduces spreads significantly; second, the EBS is more influential than the Reuters system for the currency pair DEM/USD; third, dealers with information advantage tend to quote relatively wider spreads with the new systems; fourth, geographical differences in market liquidity are reduced through the new systems, and finally, the effects occur immediately and persist in the long-term. Thus, both proposed positive and negative impacts of the electronic systems are found to be true in this paper, but our findings also suggest that positive effects dominate and the electronic systems overall increase FX market liquidity.     

The contribution of market makers to liquidity and efficiency of options trading in electronic markets

This paper examines the contribution of market makers to the liquidity and the efficiency of the options market in a unique setup of an order-driven computerized trading system, in which market makers and other participants operate under equitable conditions. The main findings are: (1) liquidity increased – a 60% increase in trading volume and a 35% decrease of bid–ask spreads; (2) the efficiency of shekel–euro options trading improved – deviations from put–call parity decreased significantly by 12%, and skewness decreased by about 30%. We also find that the net cost to the exchange is out weighted by the benefit to the trading public and that the presence of market makers encouraged trading between other participants far beyond their own trading.     

人民币对非美元货币直接交易的发展与展望

人民币对非美元货币直接交易的开展,改变了人民币对非美元货币的报价和平仓形式,为促进贸易投资便利、降低汇兑成本、推动人民币国际化进程起到了重要作用。文章在回顾人民币直接交易发展背景的基础上,归纳总结直接交易的发展模式,分析其开展的影响、意义,展望其未来的发展路径,并为人民币直接交易业务的发展提供可资借鉴的政策建议。     

全球固定收益电子交易平台发展现状及其趋势

该文从市场分类、交易模式、组成架构等角度介绍了电子固定收益交易平台的技术特征,总结了全球代表性电子固定收益平台的服务特色,及我国固定收益平台的发展现状,并展望了电子固定收益交易平台的发展趋势,指出未来固定收益平台建设将呈现交易平台综合化、交易模式多样化、数据信息服务快捷与增值并重、风险监控能力不断加强等特点。     

Aggregate insider trading and market returns: The role of transparency

Using a sample of countries that require timely disclosures of insider trades, I investigate the effect of country‐level institutions that promote transparency on the extent to which aggregate insider trades predict market returns. I find that financial information transparency mitigates the predictive content of aggregate insider trades when markets are more likely to deviate from fundamentals (i.e., during market fads), and when there is greater co‐movement in stock prices. In contrast, there is some evidence that governance and investor protection mitigate the association between aggregate insider trades and future earnings surprises. Hence, holding constant the timely disclosures of insider trades, other capital market institutions play complementary roles in mitigating the informational frictions that give rise to the predictive content of aggregate insider trades.     

The effects of trading activity on market volatility

The paper re-examines the question of excessive implied persistence of volatility estimates when GARCH type models are used. Ten actively traded US stocks are considered and as already established in the literature, when volume traded is inserted in the GARCH (1, 1) or (EGARCH 1, 1) models for returns, the estimated persistence is decreased. Since volume is affected also by within-the-day price movements and hence is not weakly exogenous relative to returns, alternative proxies for trading activities are suggested. It is concluded that the difference between the opening price and the closing price of the previous day accounts also for most of the persistence in the autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity.     

票据理财产品的运作模式、市场概况与政策思考

文章介绍了银信合作票据理财产品的运作模式、业务特征及市场现状,分析了该类票据理财产品推出的市场背景,并从监管和政策角度提出,应关注票据理财产品对货币政策调控的影响,完善票据市场制度建设,以规范银行票据业务的发展。     

Divergence of sentiment and stock market trading

This paper introduces the concept of divergence of sentiment to the behavioral finance literature. We measure the distance between people with positive and negative sentiment on a daily basis for 20 countries by using data from status updates on Facebook. The prediction is that a higher divergence of sentiment leads to more diverging views on prospects and risks, and thus to more diverging views on the value of a stock. In line with this prediction, divergence of sentiment is positively related to trading volume. We further predict and find a positive relation between divergence of sentiment and stock price volatility. The observed relations are stronger when individual investors are more likely to trade. We compare the effect of our country-specific measures to a global measure of divergence of sentiment. We find that the separate effects of country-specific and global divergence measures depend on a country's level of market integration.     

The growth in equity market size and trading activity: An international study

This paper presents new evidence on the role of macroeconomic and institutional factors in equity market development and on the sources of equity market growth. Using panel data on 33 countries, I find that development of financial intermediaries and trade openness are positively associated with equity market size, and that development of financial intermediaries is also positively associated with the level of activity in equity markets. Government consumption is negatively associated with equity market activity. I construct a direct estimate of the effect of institutional factors on equity market development that compares a country's actual level of development to a hypothetical “best-practice” country having the same macroeconomic fundamentals as the original country. I show that the level of equity market development of an average country is around 30% below its maximum potential. There are wide differences in institutional characteristics across countries and over time, and Canada, the United States, and Singapore possess the most shareholder-friendly institutional frameworks that foster larger and more active equity markets. It appears that institutional improvements and changes in financial technology have provided the major impetus for the phenomenal expansion of global equity markets.     

A change in market microstructure: the switch to electronic screen trading on the New Zealand stock exchange

The New Zealand Stock Exchange (NZSE) switched from open outcry trading to an electronic screen trading system on June 24, 1991. The change was made by the members of the exchange to improve the trading system and to reduce costs. This paper investigates empirically whether improvement was achieved through a reduction in transaction costs. The tests and results focus on order-flow migration to the exchange from alternative execution locations and changes in bid-ask spreads. On balance, we conclude that transaction costs have declined.