Attribution of investment performance: an analysis of Australian pooled superannuation funds*

This paper evaluates the market timing and security selection capabilities of Australian pooled superannuation funds over the eight‐year period from January 1991 to December 1998. Evaluation of both components of investment performance is surprisingly scarce in the Australian literature despite active investment managers engaging in both market timing and security selection. The paper also evaluates performance for the three largest asset classes within diversified superannuation funds and their contribution to overall portfolio return. The importance of an accurately specified market portfolio proxy in the measurement of investment performance is demonstrated. This paper employs performance benchmarks that account for the multi‐sector investment decisions of active investment managers in a manner that is consistent with their unique investment strategy. Consistent with U.S. literature, the empirical results indicate that Australian pooled superannuation funds do not exhibit significantly positive security selection or market timing skill.     

Size and investment performance: a research note

This article examines the performance of actively managed Australian equity funds and the extent to which both fund size and manager size are related to risk-adjusted returns. Larger investment managers, by definition, engage in higher trade volume. The literature documents that transaction costs and trade difficulty increase with trade size, given difficulties associated with 'large' trades and their potential market impact on security prices. Therefore, ceteris paribus , large orders are consistent with lower levels of efficiency in trade execution and higher transaction costs. While larger investment managers may experience material disadvantages relative to their smaller counterparts, the Australian literature to date has largely ignored the issues of asset size and the long run performance of investment offerings. This article, employing returns and fund size data that control for survivorship bias, documents that while large retail active equity funds earn higher risk-adjusted returns (after expenses) than small funds, the difference in mean performance is not significantly different. In the institutional sphere, the study also finds no statistically significant performance differences (net of expenses) between funds on the basis of portfolio size. These findings suggest the hypothesis that performance declines with fund size is not supported empirically.     

MARKET TIMING ABILITY OF POOLED SUPERANNUATION FUNDS JANUARY 1981 TO DECEMBER 1987

The performance of pooled superannuation funds is analysed within a framework that recognises that risk management or ‘market timing’ is an important aspect of the fund manager's decision-making. Two broad appraoches to the issue of ‘market timing’ are adopted: first, the performance evaluation model developed by Henriksson and Merton [1981] which allows for return differentials to arise from both security selection and market timing; and second, the recursive residuals methodology of Brown, Durbin and Evans [1975] which identifies points in chronological time when the risks of the funds underwent a change. The results indicate that only 5 out of 16 funds had significant shifts in their risk over the period of the study, all of which occurred in late 1986 to early 1987. It follows that the usual Jensen measure of performance is inappropriate for these funds since one component of their performance is due to market timing activities. The return performance of these market timing activities is significantly negative for 15 to 16 funds indicating that their timing ability is perverse. To some extent this is an artifact of the market crash of October 1987 and that all funds had a positive exposure to equities. However, due to their asset allocation policies all funds are assigned significantly positive security selection performance.     

Performance aspects of Greek bond mutual funds

This paper examines the performance characteristics of Greek bond funds and the impact of fund flows on portfolio returns. The evidence shows that on average bond funds do not offer risk-adjusted profits exceeding the returns of the benchmark index, which is in consistence with the US and international evidence. Returns before fees are slightly superior to the returns of the benchmark index, but when fees are considered they lag considerably. The security selection and market timing skills of fund managers are also tested using both an unconditional and a conditional model to test for the impact of public information variables. We also find that fund flows impact negatively on market timing.     

A comparative performance of conventional and Islamic unit trusts: Market timing and persistence evidence

It is expected that the returns and resistance of Islamic mutual funds will be different from conventional mutual funds as the former have limited choices for portfolio diversification. This article analyses the performance of conventional and Islamic unit trusts for the period February 1995 to July 2012 in the Malaysian market, one of the most developed Islamic mutual fund markets. The performance analysis is based on four parameters: (i) risk-adjusted returns of unit trusts; (ii) market timing abilities; (iii) selection performance; and (iv) persistence. The results of this study suggest that the returns of both conventional and Islamic unit trusts have outperformed the market throughout the sample period. The results for market timing and selectivity are mostly the same for both categories of funds. However, Islamic unit trusts seem to have better resistance to market downturn than conventional unit trusts. The results of this research can be used by investors to identify funds or create portfolios that are more suitable for a recessionary scenario and for fund managers to better manage their portfolio performance during times when markets are likely to fall. The findings in this article are highly relevant for policymakers, investors and fund managers to determine policy matters, deciding on investment and marketing strategy for Islamic mutual funds.     

International equity funds,performance, and investor flows: Australian evidence

This is the first paper in the Australian literature to examine the investment performance of actively managed international equity funds (domiciled in Australia). Both institutional and retail international equity funds are assessed together with the impacts of investor fund flows on portfolio returns. Performance is also evaluated using conditional measures that account for public information in the global economy, however, despite an improvement in the measurement of risk-adjusted returns, performance remains consistent with an efficient global market. These findings support prior research, which concludes that active management does not provide investors with superior returns to passive indices. When consideration is given to the liquidity service provided by active managers, fund flows are shown to negatively impact on performance.     

Life insurance companies as investment managers: New implications for consumers

This paper examines the attractiveness of the equity portfolios of life insurance companies as an alternative investment to mutual funds. In particular, this study analyzes the risk-adjusted investment performance of the stock portfolios of life insurance companies, attributable to their stock selection and market timing abilities. Using conventional measures of risk-adjusted portfolio performance, we find that life insurance companies exhibit performance similar to mutual funds. The evidence suggests that the life insurance companies, like their mutual fund counterparts, fail to exhibit differential stock selection or market timing abilities that are statistically significant. While the risk-adjusted investment performance of the two investment vehicles is similar, the variable annuity contracts of life insurance companies may offer an edge over mutual funds due to their ability to defer taxes.     

Investment manager characteristics, strategy, top management changes and fund performance

The present study examines the performance of Australian investment management organisations with direct reference to their specific characteristics and strategies employed. Using a unique information source, performance is evaluated for actively managed institutional balanced funds, Australian share funds and Australian bond funds. For balanced mandates, performance is evaluated with respect to the investment strategy adopted, the experience and qualifications held by investment professionals, and the tenure of the key investment professionals. The present study examines the performance of top management and the impact on returns when turnover arises. The research documents that a significant number of active Australian equity managers earned superior risk-adjusted returns in the period, however, active managers perform in line with market indices for balanced funds and Australian bond funds. A number of manager characteristics are also found to predict risk-adjusted returns, systematic risk and investment expenses for balanced funds.     

Asset Allocation and Selectivity of Asian Mutual Funds During Financial Crisis

This paper evaluates the ability of US-based Asian mutual fund managers in coping with the 1997 Asian financial crisis. We find that the actively managed mutual funds under-perform with respect to the market portfolio by 1.71% in average monthly return. Such poor performance is caused by fund managers' relative weakness in country selection as well as in stock picking. Fund managers are also found to be more skillful in picking the correct market when the market is going up than going down. Our results are consistent with the literature that asset allocation in Asian mutual funds is a dominating factor relative to selectivity in explaining fund returns during the financial crisis. In addition, there exists a negative relation between asset allocation ability and selectivity of fund managers.     

Seasonality in Fund Performance: An Examination of the Portfolio Holdings and Trades of Investment Managers

Abstract:  This study examines the extent to which seasonal variation arises across calendar months in the performance of active Australian equity managers. While it is well documented that there is seasonality in equity market returns, it is unknown whether calendar month variation in managed fund performance exists. Employing a unique database of monthly stock holdings, we find evidence consistent with systematic variation in the risk-adjusted performance of active investment managers over the calendar year. Specifically, we find fund performance is higher in the months when corporate earnings are announced. We also document that the performance of fund managers is lower in the months preceding the tax year-end. Finally, we report evidence that investment manager performance is greater than normal in December, possibly due to both window dressing and the Christmas holiday effect. These findings have important implications for investors attempting to exploit anomalies in fund returns by timing their entry and exit points from active equity funds.     

Coskewness timing ability in the mutual fund industry

The ability of mutual fund managers to time coskewness successfully can help them manage their portfolio’s exposure to potential losses and improve their fund’s performance. This study assesses whether mutual fund managers are able to manage the market exposure of their investment portfolios given a change in coskewness. We demonstrate that fund managers investing in Small Blend and Small Growth stocks possess the ability to time coskewness. On average, the fund managers of these two investment objectives increase the market exposures of their portfolios about 2.749 % and 1.340 %, respectively, based on their anticipations on future coskewness. Superiority is driven from the fact that the fund managers in small capitalization stocks are successfully able to manage the tail risk of their funds’ portfolios. The fund-by-fund results confirm that the number of individual funds succeeding in timing market skewness of the Small Blend and Small Growth investment objectives is larger than the remaining types. The main findings are robust when controlling for other types of timing ability, the periods of financial turbulence, and the construction of coskewness.     

The value of asset allocation advice: Evidence from The Economist's quarterly portfolio poll

This study analyzes the economic importance of portfolio advice for an investor with an international and multiple-asset investment strategy. We construct portfolios based upon the asset allocation and security market advice of major international investment bankers and analyze the performance using weight-based techniques. Our results indicate that portfolio advisers are not able to outperform passive benchmarks. They do not realize superior performance either through appropriate timing or selection skills. Apparent market timing skills as measured by the Portfolio Change Measure are to a large extent an artifact caused by serial correlation in the return indices used. Likewise, the apparent short-run performance persistence is more due to the serial correlation in returns than to active portfolio selection strategies.     

An Intertemporal CAPM Approach to Evaluate Mutual Fund Performance

Merton (1973) and Campbell (1993) have demonstrated that if an investor anticipates information shifts, he will adjust his portfolio choice today in an attempt to hedge these shifts. Exploiting these insights, we construct a new performance measure to evaluate fund managers' hedging ability. This new measure is different from two widely adopted performance evaluation measures: securities selectivity and market timing. Moreover, an econometric methodology is developed to simultaneously estimate the magnitudes of these three portfolio performance evaluation measures. The results show that mutual fund managers are on average with positive security selection and negative market timing ability. Furthermore, the mutual funds with investment style classified as Asset Allocation generally have positive hedging timing ability.     

The Impact of Investment Constraints on Portfolio Performance Measurement: The Power Utility Function Case

This paper examines the effect of investment constraints on performance measurement of institutionally managed funds. Assuming that these funds have a power utility function and using an optimal portfolio choice model, one can show that the Security Market Line remains a valid benchmark for these constrained funds under the perfect market assumption. Relaxing the perfect market assumption, one can prove that a non-stationary constrained investment policy will bias traditional measures of timing ability differently across managers types. Finally, the magnitude of this bias is illustrated with a numerical example.     

Timing the investment grade securities market: Evidence from high quality bond funds

We examine the ability of bond fund managers to shift assets between bonds and cash and across bonds of different maturities in order to capture the changes in their relative returns. As measured by estimated changes in portfolio allocations, we find strong evidence of perverse market timing ability between cash and investment grade securities, and our results indicate additional perverse timing across the bond maturity spectrum. Results are robust to an alternative performance metric. We present evidence that the survival of the majority of these funds despite their negative performance may reflect the value investors place on the portfolio diversification benefits of holding these funds.     

A new perspective on performance persistence: evidence using portfolio holdings

We investigate the existence and sources of performance persistence for Australian equity funds, using monthly portfolio holdings data. We find significant persistence among outperforming rather than underperforming funds, which is primarily related to security selection skill, and is associated with growth‐orientated funds. Meanwhile, the relation between persistence and momentum is secondary and nuanced. Further, persistence largely derives from existing holdings, while subsequent active trading contributes only moderately positive returns for both outperforming and underperforming funds. We also find that persistence fades beyond 6 months and vanishes after 24 months. Our findings differ from those for U.S. equity funds and previous Australian studies, implying that persistence may vary with market context and its identification may depend on data availability.     

The investment performance,attributes, and investment behavior of ethical equity mutual funds in the US: an empirical investigation

This paper examines the investment performance of US ethical equity mutual funds relative to the market and their traditional counterparts using a survivorship-bias-free database. We detect selectivity and market timing performance of fund managers using two models. First, we use Treynor and Mazuy’s (Harv Bus Rev 44:131–136, 1966) model to determine these performances from a quadratic regression of fund returns on market returns. Second, we use a comprehensive and integrated model derived by Bhattacharya and Pfleiderer (A note on performance evaluation. Technical Report 714, Stanford, California, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business, 1983) and Lee and Rahman (J Bus 63:261–278, 1990) to simultaneously capture stock selection and market timing skill of fund managers. This model extracts timing skill from the relationship between managers’ forecast and realized market return. In addition, the R² approach developed by Amihud and Goyenko (Rev Financ Stud 26:667–694, 2013) for evaluating selectivity is also used in this paper. Our empirical results indicate that ethical funds perform no worse than their traditional counterparts, although ethical and traditional funds do not outperform the market. We find some evidence of superior security selection and/or market timing skill among a very small number of ethical and traditional funds. It appears that matching traditional funds have slightly more abnormal (superior as well as inferior) performance than ethical funds in our sample.     

Derivative use,fund flows and investment manager performance

Prior literature which examines the use of derivatives by investment managers does not discern between different types of derivative trading strategies. This study is the first to examine and gather data on a particular type of derivative trading strategy undertaken by investment managers. We examine the extent to which equity fund managers use index futures to manage fund flows and the effect this has on their alpha and market timing measures of performance. Our results show that funds that do not use derivatives exhibit lower returns and negative market timing skills when they experience fund flow. The performance of funds that use derivatives, however, is independent of investor’s liquidity demands. In fact, the unconditional performance of the average user fund is statistically equivalent to the performance of the average non-user fund conditional on zero fund flow. Our results provide evidence that derivatives can be beneficial for mutual fund holders under certain conditions.     

AN ARBITRAGE PRICING APPROACH TO EVALUATING MUTUAL FUND PERFORMANCE

A test procedure, derived from arbitrage pricing theory, that permits the measurement of the security selection performance of professional portfolio managers is developed and applied to a sample of mutual funds over the period of the 1970's. The evidence indicates that more than one factor was present in the market during that interval as a systematic influence on the profile of securities returns. Consistent with prior studies, the evidence also suggests that mutual fund portfolios did not outperform a passive buy-and-hold investment strategy. A comparative analysis of the same data, using performance measures based on the single-factor market model, produces similar but less powerful results, both in the aggregate and at the individual fund level.     

The investment behavior of buyout funds: Theory and evidence

We analyze the determinants of buyout funds’ investment decisions. We argue that when there is imperfect competition for private equity funds, the timing of funds’ investment decisions, their risk-taking behavior, and their subsequent returns depend on changes in the demand for private equity, conditions in the credit market, and fund managers’ ability to influence perceptions of their talent. We investigate these hypotheses using a proprietary dataset of 207 U.S. buyout funds that invested in 1,957 buyout targets over a 30-year period. Our dataset contains precisely dated cash inflows and outflows in every portfolio company, links every buyout target to an identifiable buyout fund, and is free from reporting and survivor biases. Thus, we are able to characterize every buyout fund's precise investment choices. Our findings are as follows. First, established funds accelerate their investment flows and earn higher returns when investment opportunities improve, competition for deal flow eases, and credit market conditions loosen. Second, the investment behavior of first-time funds is less sensitive to market conditions. Third, younger funds invest in riskier buyouts, in an effort to establish a track record. Finally, following periods of good performance, funds become more conservative, and this effect is stronger for first-time funds.