On the Use of Naive Expectations of Earnings per Share as Experimental Benchmarks*

Both martingale and submartingale processes have been used as experimental benchmarks for corporate earnings forecasts or expectations in a large number of studies. This paper investigates the relative accuracy of forecasts from these two processes for a sample of Australian'firms. Submartingale models incorporating drift factors estimated over a large number of past observations consistently outperformed those using fewer observations, while the martingale model always outperformed the submartingale with drift factors estimaied over less than six prior earnings changes. The relative superiority of the martingale versus the best submartingale models used depended on whether a quadratic or linear error metric was deemed appropriate.     

The Impact Of Computer Prices On International Comparisons Of Labour Productivity

This paper analyses the international comparability of methods used to convert the value added of the office and computing machinery sector (OCM) into constant prices for nine OECD countries. It concludes that the variations which exist in the price indexes are largely due to differences in the methods countries use to capture changes in the quality of an industry's output over time. The paper evaluates the impact of these different OCM price indexes on the growth rate of labour productivity during the 1980s by conducting a sensitivity test where the US OCM index is substituted for each of the individual country indexes. This experiment causes the OCM labour productivity growth rate to change by over a factor of ten for several countries. This result suggests that international comparisons of labour productivity should not be made for the OCM sector using the official data, and that labour productivity comparisons of sectors OCM belongs to—non-electrical machinery and fabricated metal products and machinery—should be conducted cautiously, if at all.     

Immigrant Earnings Adjustment: The Impact of Age at Migration

Human capital theory, in conjunction with Chiswick's (1978 ) and Borjas' (1998) work, implies the post-migration path of immigrant earnings is likely to depend on the age at migration. An adaptation of Borjas' (1998) model of immigrant wage determination is presented which predicts, for a given stock of human capital at the point of migration, lower initial earnings for younger arrivals, but faster earnings growth with time in the destination country. Empirical tests on data for Australian immigrants provide qualified support for the hypothesis that initial wages are, ceteris paribus , increasing in age at migration and the rate of wage growth is decreasing in age at migration.     

The Impact of Inflation Uncertainty on Interest Rates in the UK

This paper assesses the effect of expected inflation and inflation risk on interest rates within the Fisher hypothesis framework. Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic models are used to estimate the conditional variability of inflation as a proxy for risk. With the UK quarterly data from 1958:4 to 1994:4, we found that both the expected inflation and the conditional variability of inflation positively affect the UK three‐month Treasury‐bill rate.     

The Relative Earnings from Self and Paid Employment: A Time-series Analysis for the UK

We investigate the determinants of variations in the reported relative earnings of self-employed and paid-employed workers in the United Kingdom, focusing in particular on the significant decline which has taken place since 1980. We find that the main factors behind this decline have been the rise in the rate of self-employment itself and a reduction in the level of capital per self-employed worker; effects which we associate with a decline in the quality of the average self-employed business. Changes in the tax rates on income and in the sectoral composition of GDP helped to reduce the scale of the decline in self-employment relative earnings to some degree.     

过磅房计算机计量管理系统的开发与应用

本文介绍冶炼厂汽车过磅计算机计量管理系统的开发应用情况,重点介绍系统的设计思想、硬件构成和软件功能.     

Pricing Personal Services: An Empirical Study of Earnings in the UK Prostitution Industry

The hedonic pricing method is used to investigate the way in which the prices of prostitutes' services are determined. The data used in the analysis are extracted from an internet site, each observation being based on a report submitted by a client. The factors affecting price are identified in a regression framework, and combined with other information to provide estimates of the earnings, both aggregate and individual, for a sub‐sector of this underground service industry in the United Kingdom. Comparison of these earnings' estimates with data on earnings from alternative employment then allows us to estimate the compensating wage differential, and also to verify the theoretical prediction that prostitutes' earnings are positively related to earnings from alternative employment.     

The Impact of Children on the Lifetime Earnings of Australian Women: Evidence from the 1990s

This article presents estimates of the consequences of having children for the lifetime earnings of Australian women in the late 1990s.     

Monetary Policy Transparency in the UK: The Impact of Independence and Inflation Targeting

There is a widespread belief that the transparency of UK monetary policy has increased substantially as a result of the introduction of inflation targeting in 1992 and a number of procedural and institutional reforms which accompanied and followed it. Here, money market responses (and other data) are used to test the possibility that improved anticipation of policy moves may be the result of developments other than the institutional reforms popularly cited. We find overwhelming evidence that the switch to inflation targeting itself significantly reduced monetary policy surprises, while subsequent reforms have contributed little. Where we advance substantially on earlier work is to look at the cross‐sectional dispersion of agents’ anticipation. If the benefit of transparency is the elimination of policy surprise, there is little benefit if the averagely correct anticipations of agents conceal a wide dispersion of view.     

The Impact of Families on Juvenile Substance Use

This paper examines the effect of family composition on juvenile substance use and drug sales using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997. The results underscore the importance of having a father figure in the household in deterring juvenile smoking, marijuana use, and drug sale. However, the extent to which father figures affect juvenile substance use and drug sales varies according to their biological link to the youth and the youth's gender. Results further indicate that siblings and their involvement in substance use and drug sales significantly influence youths' own exposure to these delinquent practices. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

我国注册会计师审计与上市公司盈余管理研究

本文对我国注册会计师审计质量与上市公司盈余管理进行实证研究.通过分析沪市上市公司2000-2002年被出具的审计报告的情况,研究上市公司盈余管理程度.本文的研究结论是中国注册会计师的审计质量在逐渐提高,对上市公司盈余管理起到有效限制作用.     

试论盈余管理问题上各方之间的博弈关系及对策

由于中国资本市场的快速发展及会计准则的不断变更,上市公司追求价值最大化的导向,而忽视了公司其他利益相关者的利益。导致上市公司往往为获得融资或再融资而采取对公司利润进行操作,过度的盈余管理妨碍了资本市场及企业本身的健康发展同时也影响了整个社会资金的合理配置。针对上市公司的财务监管部门即会计政策制定方、证监会以及上市公司三者之间的相互博弈关系展开讨论,以寻求他们之间相互制约的最佳点。     

The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on UK Exports to EU Countries

This paper investigates the impact of exchange rate volatility on UK exports to European Union (EU) countries by means of a newly developed ARDL bounds testing procedure to cointegration. Using monthly data disaggregated by market of destination and sectors for the period 1993ml to 2001m6, our results indicate that UK exports to the EU14, at both aggregate and sectoral level, are generally income elastic, relative price inelastic and largely unaffected by short‐term exchange rate volatility. Re‐estimation of the model using a long‐term measure of volatility, however, provides evidence supporting the hypothesis that exchange rate uncertainty has a negative and significant influence on UK exports to EU countries.     

On the efficiency of the UK rubber market

This paper seeks to establish whether the efficient markets theory can be applied to the London Rubber Market by analysing the price changes observed in that market for daily cash and future price series during the periods January 1975 to June 1983, and January 1980 to May 1983 respectively. The analysis features an examination of the return distributions and parametric, non-parametric, and economic tests based on auto-correlation coefficients, runs, and filter tests. The results support the hypothesis of weak-form efficiency.     

我国上市公司的盈利操纵及其防范对策

分析了我国上市公司盈利操纵的动机,指出了上市公司盈利操纵的主要方式,提出了防范上市公司盈利操纵行为的对策。     

论计算机在课堂教学中的应用

尽管传统的课堂教学具有丰富的遗产和宝贵的教学经验,但传统教学的局限性和不足亦十分突出.传统课堂教学的主要缺陷是信息功能弱,个别化教学能力差,这些缺陷是由传统教学的传递结构所决定的,不是改变教法所能克服的.为了解决传统教学所面临的难题,为了能大幅度提高教学效率,我们要建构现代教学模式.计算机以其巨大的处理能力和多功能上在教育领域中得到广泛的应用,将传统教学方式和现代教学媒体有机联系起来.相辅相承,形成一种以计算机为主的多媒体教学组合,从而提高课堂效率和学生学习的热情.     

业绩预告的市场反应研究

本文以业绩预告信息为例,研究会计盈余的市场反应问题。我们的研究发现,关于年度会计盈余的业绩预告引起了明显的市场反应,但中性的预告信息则获得负的累计超额报酬,这表明在我国特殊的制度背景下,以随机游走模型确定未预期盈余存在一定的缺陷。同时,市场对坏消息反应更为剧烈,这说明广大投资者具备了一定的风险规避意识．市场对于不同属性的业绩预告信息的反应存在显著差异。     

盈利预测误差的契约性与上市公司盈余管理研究

文章研究上市公司盈利预测误差对公司盈余管理行为的影响.文章从我国证券市场盈利预测契约特征的特殊性出发,分析盈余管理动机与盈利预测误差的关系,对盈利预测负误差幅度在20%以内的公司盈余管理行为进行检验.研究发现:高估盈利但高估程度在20%以内的公司,在上市后的第一年都或多或少地存在通过管理主观利润和营运资金项目以调增盈利的行为.该结果表明上市公司为了避免由于存在盈利预测误差而受到处罚,都存在着盈余管理行为动机.