Incumbent Response to Entry by Low‐Cost Carriers in the U.S. Airline Industry

This article studies incumbent price response to entry by low‐cost carriers in the U.S. airline industry. I find that legacy carrier incumbents decrease their mean airfare, 10th percentile airfare, and 90th percentile airfare following entry by a low‐cost carrier. Airfares decrease by a larger percentage at the right tail of the incumbents’ price distribution than at the left tail, suggesting that increased competition from low‐cost carrier entrants leads to lower price dispersion.     

PAC Contributions from Sectors of the Financial Services Industry, 1998–2002

This paper explores the relationship between House committee membership and campaign contributions from financial services industry political action committees (PACs) over the 1998–2002 election periods. Three significant pieces of banking legislation were passed during this time. Because members of the financial services industry were affected greatly by this legislation, it seems logical that PACs might attempt to influence the legislative process through the distribution of campaign contributions. We examine the relationship between PAC contributions to individual legislators for the 1998–2002 election cycle and membership on the House banking committee using a sample selection model. We find committee membership matters and the different financial services industry PACs give disproportionately more to representatives with the power to write legislation favorable to the industry. An earlier version of this paper was presented at the October 2007 International Atlantic Economic Conference.     

Financing black politics: A study of congressional elections

This article investigates the financing of the campaigns of black candidates for the U.S. House of Representatives. Although incumbent black candidates receive lower levels of campaign contributions than their white counterparts, analysis of expenditure data shows that their campaigns are adequately funded, with most of them winning by large margins and retaining modest surpluses. Black challengers, however, are substantially underfunded and are rarely able to conduct competitive campaigns. The implications of this incumbent-challenger financial disparity for the accountability and responsiveness of members of Congress representing black constituencies are discussed.     

Differences in campaign funds: A racial explanation

Black candidates for the U. S. House of Representatives receive substantially lower levels of campaign contributions than non-black candidates. This article investigates the reason for this discrepancy. Are blacks discriminated against or do they receive less money because they are riskier candidates? The results suggest that blacks do receive less money because of their race and that the source of the funds is important. Political action committees and political parties tend to discriminate but individual contributors do not.     

Too Many Cooks? Committees in Monetary Policy

How many people should decide monetary policy? In this article, we take an empirical perspective on this issue and analyze the relationship between the number of monetary policy decision makers and monetary policy outcomes. Using a new data set that characterizes central bank monetary policy committees (MPCs) in more than 30 countries from 1960 through 2006, we find a U‐shaped relationship between MPC size and inflation; our results suggest that the lowest level of inflation is reached at MPCs with an intermediate size of about five to nine members. Similar results are obtained for inflation variability. Other MPC characteristics also matter for monetary policy outcomes, though to a smaller degree. For instance, the membership composition of the MPC as well as the frequency of MPC membership turnover appears to affect economic variables.     

Financial Services Industry PAC Contributions and Senate Committee Membership

This paper explores the relationship between relevant senate committee membership and campaign contributions from financial services industry political action committees (PACs) from 1998 to 2002. Since this was a period of significant legislative activity affecting the industry, it provides a fruitful time period to investigate the relationship between contributions and committee membership. It is found that membership on the Senate Banking Committee is consistently related to contributions from financial services PACs. Membership on the Senate Finance Committee is related to PAC contributions from some sectors of the industry for some time periods. It is also found that contributions are significantly higher for those senators facing re-election in the particular election cycle. The importance of relevant committee membershipto PAC contributions in the senate is consistent with previous work dealing with the House.     

A Test of the Structure of PAC Contracts: An Analysis of House Gun Control Votes in the 1980s

We examine roll call votes on gun control in the U.S. House of Representatives during the 1980s to determine whether political action committees (PACs) make spot market purchases, prepay for votes in the prior election cycle, or make long-term investments. Previous tests generally employ PAC contributions from only one cycle, which could impose the wrong structure on contracts between PACs and politicians, causing researchers to misestimate a contribution's impact. We find that money from more than one election cycle influences roll call votes, which suggests that PAC expenditures are not simple spot market or one-period prepayment contracts. Most remarkably, we find that the National Rifle Association buys votes with contributions from three election cycles.     

A Positive Political Model of Supreme Court Economic Decisions

We develop a positive political model of the U.S. Supreme Court. Looking at the Court's economic cases for the period 1953-1993, we find a significant larger fraction of conservative decisions under Republican presidents and more conservative leadership of the House and Senate Judiciary Committees. Conservative decisions are also found to be positively correlated with the fraction of the Court appointed by Republican presidents and the rate of price inflation. We argue that our findings cast serious doubt on the common view of the Supreme Court as a completely independent, apolitical institution.     

What happened to the world's potential growth after the 2008–2009 global financial crisis?

This paper provides estimates of potential growth for 52 economies in 2000–2018. We follow Borio et al.’s (2014, 2017) methodology, which takes into account the relationship between financial factors and the output gap. We find that the world's potential growth declined from an average of 3.0% in 2000–2007 to 2.6% in 2010–2018. Potential growth peaked before the crisis at 3.4% in 2006. The trough was in 2009 at 2.3%. Potential growth started recovering in 2010 and reached 2.9% in 2018. Decomposing the 0.4 percentage points decline between 2000–2007 and 2010–2018 by economy, we find that high-income Europe contributed 0.34 percentage points. The decline in potential growth in the United States contributed 0.24 percentage points, while the decline in Japan contributed just 0.07 percentage points. China's potential growth and that of Asia and the Pacific also fell, but their contributions to the change in the world's potential growth were positive, 0.33 percentage points and 0.11 percentage points, respectively. The other economies contributed 0.19 percentage points to the decline. Decomposing the sources of the decline into the contributions of labor force growth and labor productivity growth, the former declined by 0.55 percentage points, while labor productivity growth increased by 0.15 percentage points.     

Congressional Memberships as Political Advertising: Evidence from the U.S. Senate

The present article analyzes signaling by elected officials of moderate or centrist legislative behavior from a benefits/costs perspective. To do so, we provide statistical evidence regarding the tendency of senators to join the U.S. Senate Centrist Coalition, a congressional membership organization of moderate legislators. We find that changes in party loyalty, perhaps due to changes in constituent preferences, and U.S. Senate tenure are both important determinants of membership in the Centrist Coalition. Tests also point out that freshman senators are more likely than more senior senators to seek membership as a form of information provision.     

Comparative advantages in U.S. bilateral services trade with China and India

Using bilateral trade data for 16 service categories, this paper examines the patterns, evolution, and determinants of comparative advantage (CA) in U.S. services trade with China and India from 1992 to 2010. The results indicate that the U.S. has a CA in most services, except in more traditional ones, such as travel and transportation. However, India, and more recently China, gained a CA in modern services, such as computer and information services during the period considered in this paper. An examination of the distributional dynamics indicates that the likelihood of U.S. gaining CA over an initial position of comparative disadvantage (CDA) in its trade of a particular service with India is higher than the probability of losing its initial dominance. In contrast, the U.S. CA or CDA vis-à-vis China exhibits high levels of persistence over time. The regression results suggest that relative abundance of sector-specific labor, human capital, and FDI inflows have been significant sources of CA for the U.S. over both China and India.     

对发展中国家的贸易与美国制造业的就业变动

本文利用1997～2006年美国制造业的面板数据,从静态和动态的角度实证检验了美国制造业与发展中国家的进、出口贸易对美国制造业就业总量的影响。估计结果表明,考虑进、出口贸易对技术创新的驱动作用以后,进、出口贸易对就业的影响与理论预期存在不一致性,进口贸易不仅没有通过替代国内生产而减少劳动密集制造部门对劳动力的需求,反而促进了该部门的就业增长;出口贸易也没有通过产出扩大效应而增加劳动密集制造部门对劳动力的需求,出口贸易对就业的促进效应仅仅体现在技术密集制造部门。由于美国劳动力市场中存在价格效应、规模效应和劳动力需求的趋势效应,与发展中国家的进、出口贸易对美国制造业就业的影响呈现明显的滞后性和动态调整特征。     

What determines employment opportunity for college graduates in China after higher education reform?

Using the 2005 placement data from two separate colleges, this paper studies graduate job allocation in China after higher education reform. Other things being equal, graduates with better college GPA were more likely to be employed (in particular by high-pay foreign firms) in both colleges. Female advantage in GPA helped to produce a surprising gender employment gap favoring female graduates. Our empirical evidence does not support the three alternative hypotheses of such a gap. Even though the job-market returns to GPA might be higher for women, there is some weak evidence that the job-market preferred male graduates over their female peers with similar qualifications. Pre-college urban hukou status and a proxy of father's education had positive impacts on a graduate's educational and employment outcomes. There is no evidence that father's Communist Party membership mattered.     

Peer Effects among Financial Analysts

We hypothesize that the arrival of star analysts improves the performance of incumbent financial analysts, while the departure of star analysts has the opposite effect. Our results consistent with this hypothesis are concentrated primarily in the tests related to star arrivals. Our findings are robust to an instrumental variable approach and a falsification test. In addition, we hypothesize that the impact of the arrival/departure of star analysts is more pronounced when the star analyst covers the same industry as the incumbents (especially for industries with high uncertainty), when the star analyst is more established, when the incumbent analysts are less experienced, and when the brokerage house has fewer existing star analysts. Overall, our paper offers evidence of peer effects among financial analysts, mainly through the arrival of star analysts.     

Financial dependence and exports: Entrants or incumbents?

Using firm-level customs data from 51 countries at different levels of development, we explore differential impacts of access to finance on incumbent and new exporters. Consistent with the literature, firms in sectors more dependent on external finance have higher exports based in financially more developed countries. This effect, however, occurs entirely through entrants, with no effect found for incumbents. The trade response of entrants works primarily through the extensive margin (number of exporters) rather than the intensive margin (average size). We further find access to external finance affects exporter entry rates while it does not affect exporter exit rates.     

后危机时代美国外贸政策的调整及其影响

国际经济危机后,美国政府大力调整外贸政策,确定国家出口战略,力图提升国际竞争力,文章对美国外贸政策调整的基本内容、背景及影响进行了分析,指出了美国政策调整的隐形贸易保护主义倾向,并认为它无益于美国国内产业竞争力的提升。     

"广场协议"后的美元/日元汇率与美日双边贸易失衡

1985年"广场协议"的最主要目标是通过美元对全球主要货币特别是对日元的贬值来缩减美国的贸易逆差。然而,对1985-2006年美元/日元汇率、美日双边贸易差额等数据进行的分析说明,美元/日元汇率变动对美日双边贸易收支变动没有解释能力,美元对日元的贬值没有解决美日之间的贸易失衡问题。我们有理由相信,人民币对美元的升值也同样不能解决当代美中之间的贸易失衡问题。     

College education and internal migration in China

In this paper, I examine the causal impact of college education on young adults' out-province migration in China using China Family Panel Studies 2010 wave data. I use the number of colleges at the province-year level to identify the effect of college attendance on young adults' later life location choice. 2SLS estimates suggest that attending college significantly increases the likelihood of residing in a different province later in life by 7.5 percentage points. A series of tests shows that the impact of college on migration is heterogenous to people's childhood location, gender, hukou origin, and occupation.     

破坏性创新与在位企业的竞争力弱化

处于市场主导地位的在位企业常常会为了保持自身竞争优势而强化其核心能力,从而使其竞争力得到进一步加强,然而这一竞争力是建立在企业现有核心能力和竞争优势基础之上。当新进入企业在利用破坏性创新对主导企业的主导市场实施破坏时,主导企业的前述行为无意识的成为企业竞争力弱化的推手。     

Competing with Costco and Sam's Club: Warehouse Club Entry and Grocery Prices

Prior research shows that grocery stores reduce prices to compete with Walmart Supercenters. This study finds evidence that the competitive effects of two other big‐box retailers—Costco and Walmart‐owned Sam's Club—are quite different. Using city‐level panel grocery price data matched with a unique data set on Walmart and warehouse club locations, we find that Costco entry is associated with higher grocery prices at incumbent retailers and that the effect is strongest in cities with small populations and high grocery store densities. This is consistent with incumbents competing with Costco along nonprice dimensions, such as product quality or quality of the shopping experience. We find no evidence that Sam's Club entry affects grocery stores' prices, consistent with Sam's Club's focus on small businesses instead of consumers.