Non-parametric tests of productive efficiency with errors-in-variables

We develop a non-parametric test of productive efficiency that accounts for errors-in-variables, following the approach of Varian. [1985. Nonparametric analysis of optimizing behavior with measurement error. Journal of Econometrics 30(1/2), 445–458]. The test is based on the general Pareto–Koopmans notion of efficiency, and does not require price data. Statistical inference is based on the sampling distribution of the L_∞ norm of errors. The test statistic can be computed using a simple enumeration algorithm. The finite sample properties of the test are analyzed by means of a Monte Carlo simulation using real-world data of large EU commercial banks.     

Welfare and efficiency in incomplete market economies with a single firm

In the quasilinear case, surplus maximization leads to constrained efficient Drèze equilibria. We investigate the question of whether surplus maximization can be useful beyond the quasilinear case.     

Exit problems in regime-switching models

This paper provides a general framework for pricing of perpetual American and real options in regime-switching Lévy models. In each state of the Markov chain, which determines switches from one Lévy process to another, the payoff stream is a monotone function of the Lévy process labeled by the state. This allows for additional switching within each state of the Markov chain (payoffs can be different in different regions of the real line). The pricing procedure is efficient even if the number of states is large provided the transition rates are not very large w.r.t. the riskless rates. The payoffs and riskless rates may depend on a state. Special cases are stochastic volatility models and models with stochastic interest rate; both must be modeled as finite-state Markov chains. As an application, we solve exit problems for a price-taking firm, and study the dependence of the exit threshold on the interest rate uncertainty.     

Jump tails,extreme dependencies,and the distribution of stock returns

We provide a new framework for estimating the systematic and idiosyncratic jump tail risks in financial asset prices. Our estimates are based on in-fill asymptotics for directly identifying the jumps, together with Extreme Value Theory (EVT) approximations and methods-of-moments for assessing the tail decay parameters and tail dependencies. On implementing the procedures with a panel of intraday prices for a large cross-section of individual stocks and the S&P 500 market portfolio, we find that the distributions of the systematic and idiosyncratic jumps are both generally heavy-tailed and close to symmetric, and show how the jump tail dependencies deduced from the high-frequency data together with the day-to-day variation in the diffusive volatility account for the “extreme” joint dependencies observed at the daily level.     

Jumps and betas: A new framework for disentangling and estimating systematic risks

We provide a new theoretical framework for disentangling and estimating the sensitivity towards systematic diffusive and jump risks in the context of factor models. Our estimates of the sensitivities towards systematic risks, or betas, are based on the notion of increasingly finer sampled returns over fixed time intervals. We show consistency and derive the asymptotic distributions of our estimators. In an empirical application of the new procedures involving high-frequency data for forty individual stocks, we find that the estimated monthly diffusive and jump betas with respect to an aggregate market portfolio differ substantially for some of the stocks in the sample.     

Good timing: The economics of optimal stopping

This paper presents an economic interpretation of the optimal “stopping” of perpetual project opportunities under both certainty and uncertainty. Prior to stopping, the expected rate of return from delay exceeds the rate of interest. The expected rate of return from delay is the sum of the expected rate of change in project value and the expected rate of change in the option premium associated with waiting. At stopping the expected rate of return from delay has fallen to the rate of interest. Viewing stopping in this way unifies the theoretical and practical insights of the theory of stopping under certainty and uncertainty.     

Stale and Scale Effects in Markets-Based Accounting Research: Evidence from the Valuation of Dividends

Abstract

This study revisits prior research on the valuation of dividends in an accounting-based valuation framework. Using a battery of tests, we show that market value deflation is essential in market-based tests of dividend displacement and signalling because it controls for ‘stale’ information in addition to scale (size) differences across firms. For US firms, we show that after controlling for ‘stale’ information, the empirical association between dividends and market values switches from positive to negative. This switch is not explained by scale differences across firms. Further, we show that after controlling for staleness, the valuation of dividends remains positive for European firms. This result is explained by the relatively stronger association of dividends with future earnings in these settings (i.e. signalling). Lastly, our country-specific estimates of dividend valuation provide a potentially valuable index for studies aimed at examining the effects of accounting and securities regulation on information asymmetries in an international context.     

Optimal stopping made easy

This paper presents a simple discrete time model for valuing real options. A short and simple proof of optimal exercise rules for the standard problems in the real options theory is given in the binomial and trinomial models, and, more generally, when the underlying uncertainty is modelled as a random walk on a lattice. The method of the paper is based on the use of the expected present value operators. With straightforward modifications, the method works in discrete time-continuous space, continuous time-continuous space and continuous time-discrete space models.     

Equilibrium price dynamics in an overlapping-generations exchange economy

An extension to the Yaari (1965)–Blanchard (1985) continuous time overlapping generations model for an endowment Arrow–Debreu economy with an age-structured population is presented. It is proved that Arrow–Debreu equilibrium prices are represented by a double linear integral equation, and depend on the age-distributions of population and endowments. For an economy with a balanced growth, and logarithmic utility, we prove that bubbles may exist if endowments are distributed earlier than some critical age.     

Time-varying jump tails

We develop new methods for the estimation of time-varying risk-neutral jump tails in asset returns. In contrast to existing procedures based on tightly parameterized models, our approach imposes much fewer structural assumptions, relying on extreme-value theory approximations together with short-maturity options. The new estimation approach explicitly allows the parameters characterizing the shape of the right and the left tails to differ, and importantly for the tail shape parameters to change over time. On implementing the procedures with a panel of S&P 500 options, our estimates clearly suggest the existence of highly statistically significant temporal variation in both of the tails. We further relate this temporal variation in the shape and the magnitude of the jump tails to the underlying return variation through the formulation of simple time series models for the tail parameters.     

Testing the Markov property with high frequency data

This paper develops a framework to nonparametrically test whether discrete-valued irregularly spaced financial transactions data follow a Markov process. For that purpose, we consider a specific optional sampling in which a continuous-time Markov process is observed only when it crosses some discrete level. This framework is convenient for it accommodates the irregular spacing that characterizes transactions data. Under such an observation rule, the current price duration is independent of a previous price duration given the previous price realization. A simple nonparametric test then follows by examining whether this conditional independence property holds. Monte Carlo simulations suggest that the asymptotic test has huge size distortions, though a bootstrap-based variant entails reasonable size and power properties in finite samples. As for an empirical illustration, we investigate whether bid–ask spreads follow Markov processes using transactions data from the New York Stock Exchange. The motivation lies on the fact that asymmetric information models of market microstructures predict that the Markov property does not hold for the bid–ask spread. We robustly reject the Markov assumption for two out of the five stocks under scrutiny. Finally, it is reassuring that our results are consistent with two alternative measures of asymmetric information.     

The core can be accessed with a bounded number of blocks

We show the existence of an upper bound for the number of blocks required to get from one imputation to another provided that accessibility holds. The bound depends only on the number of players in the TU game considered. For the class of games with non-empty cores this means that the core can be reached via a bounded sequence of blocks.     

Equivalence of utilitarian maximal and weakly maximal programs

For a class of aggregative optimal growth models, which allow for a non-convex and non-differentiable production technology, this paper examines whether the set of utilitarian maximal programs coincides with the set of weakly maximal programs. It identifies a condition, called the Phelps–Koopmans condition, under which the equivalence result holds. An example is provided to demonstrate that the equivalence result is invalid when the Phelps–Koopmans condition does not hold.     

The bull and bear market model of Huang and Day: Some extensions and new results

We develop a financial market model with interacting chartists and fundamentalists that embeds the famous bull and bear market model of Huang and Day as a special case. Their model is given by a one-dimensional continuous piecewise-linear map. Our model, on the other hand, is more flexible and is represented by a one-dimensional discontinuous piecewise-linear map. Nevertheless, we are able to provide a more or less complete analytical treatment of the model dynamics by characterizing its possible outcomes in parameter space. In addition, we show that quite different scenarios can trigger real-world phenomena such as bull and bear market dynamics and excess volatility.     

Investment timing and efficiency in incomplete contracts

This paper considers a buyer and seller capable of making observable but nonverifiable relationship-specific investments before the parties' valuations of trade (also observable but nonverifiable) are known. Our formulation allows investments to have direct external effects and the investments to occur sequentially. We characterize an incomplete contract that implements the first-best investments and trade. This optimal contract states negotiation procedures used to determine a monetary transfer made during the investment phase and the terms of trade.     

Arbitrage, equilibrium, and gains from trade: A counterexample

We present a counterexample to a theorem due to Chichilnisky (Bulletin of the American Mathematical Society, 1993, 29, 189–207; American Economic Review, 1994, 84, 427–434). Chichilnisky's theorem states that her condition of limited arbitrage is necessary and sufficient for the existence of an equilibrium in an economy with unbounded short sales. Our counterexample shows that the condition defined by Chichilnisky is not sufficient for existence of equilibrium. We also discuss difficulties in Chichilnisky (Economic Theory, 1995, 5, 79–107).     

Intertemporal recursive utility and an equilibrium asset pricing model in the presence of Lévy jumps

This paper presents an equilibrium formulation of asset pricing in an environment of mixed Poisson–Brownian information with recursive utility. The optimal portfolio choice problem is studied together with a derivation of Euler equation as necessary condition for optimality. It is further shown that the price processes governed by the Euler equation, together with the market clearing conditions, constitute the equilibrium price processes. Closed form formulas are derived for European call options and for other derivative securities in a particular parameterization of the economy. The derived option pricing formula contain many existing models as special cases, and is potentially useful in explaining the moneyness biasedness associated with Black–Scholes model.     

The Effects of Cannabis Use on Wages of Prime‐age Males*

This paper uses a data set collected among inhabitants of Amsterdam, to study whether wages of prime‐age male workers are affected by cannabis use. The analysis shows that recent cannabis use has a negative effect on wages. The size of the wage effect depends on the age of onset. The earlier the start of cannabis use the larger the negative wage impact.     

Mean-variance portfolio selection of cointegrated assets

This paper considers the continuous-time mean-variance portfolio selection problem in a financial market in which asset prices are cointegrated. The asset price dynamics are then postulated as the diffusion limit of the corresponding discrete-time error-correction model of cointegrated time series. The problem is completely solved in the sense that solutions of the continuous-time portfolio policy and the efficient frontier are obtained as explicit and closed-form formulas. The analytical results are applied to pairs trading using cointegration techniques. Numerical examples show that identifying a cointegrated pair with a high mean-reversion rate can generate significant statistical arbitrage profits once the current state of the economy sufficiently departs from the long-term equilibrium. We propose an index to simultaneously measure the departure level of a cointegrated pair from equilibrium and the mean-reversion speed based on the mean-variance paradigm. An empirical example is given to illustrate the use of the theory in practice.