The political economy of Ecuador’s external debt default

The default of the 2012 and 2030 Global Bonds during the early stages of the Alianza PAIS government in Ecuador is best understood in the context of the social conflicts that characterized the exhaustion of neoliberalism in the country and the struggle between different fractions of capital for the direction of the process of accumulation. The restructuring of external debt and the new wave of public borrowing facilitated a boost in public spending that spurred economic growth and provided a ‘fiscal pacification’ of social unrest and political instability. The movements in public debt have also been a lever for State and geopolitical repositioning that reflects a new moment in the correlation of social forces and hegemony in the world economy. In this new scenario, however, Ecuador has not overcome the structural imbalances and contradictions that underpin its external debt problematic.     

Effects of European integration on Austria’s economy

High expectations were placed on the project of European economic integration and Austria’s participation in it. Economists had expected that the Single Market would provide a positive supply shock, i.e. rising productivity, resulting in more growth. The optimistic forecasts for neither the EU nor for Austria were borne out by actual economic trends. Economic growth as well as productivity growth decelerated, while unemployment increased. Monetary union was implemented with an economic policy framework, the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) that geared monetary policy only to price stability and at the same time prescribed restrictive fiscal policies. The SGP therefore reveals a deflationary bias. The existing literature on the effects of EU accession on the Austrian economy by design fails to account for the restrictive effects of the SGP. The paper presents simulation results allowing for supply shocks as well as demand shocks. The simulations are based on a medium‐sized macroeconometric model. The results indicate that recent studies overestimate the positive effects of European integration. A simulation of the restrictive demand‐side effects of the SGP, with the assumption that around half of the fall in public consumption growth in the Euro countries can be attributed to the SGP, produced significant negative growth effects. The net effect suggests a negative quarter percentage point p.a. during the period 1995–2004.     

The political economy of nature ∗

Suggestions are made for the development of a specific theory of mining by addressing the role of landed property, cartelization and monopolization. Each of these is seen as having a historically contigent relationship to the others and to the growth of mining capital. The spatial expansion of mining is examined as potentially leading to restructuring of, and conflict over, property relations, and cartelization of markets as tending to precede monopolization of production. The argument is illustrated by reference to the UK coal industry, the South African diamond industry and the US oil industry.     

Where are we in the political economy of reform?

We review the experiences of developing countries with market-oriented reforms, using the tools of modern political economy. We impose intellectual discipline by requiring that actors behave rationally using available information and that basic economic relationships such as budget constraints be accounted for. We attempt to integrate two approaches, one based on dynamic games played by interest groups, with one that focus on limited information and the dynamics of learning.

We describe the “starting point” as the set of “old” policies and we attempt to explain the dynamics (political, economic and informational) that lead to reform (section II). We analyze strategies for reformers subject to political constraints (section Ш). We evaluate the aggregate and distributional costs of reforms, emphasizing the importance of looking at the right counterfactuals (section IV).

We conclude by pointing to the challenges ahead: the second-stage institutional reforms necessary to take off from underdevelopment.     

An assessment on the quality of China’s preliminary data of quarterly GDP announcements

This article examines the quality of China’s preliminary announcements of the quarterly GDP. We modify the tests for unbiasedness and efficiency by incorporating the Fourier approximation to capture the effect of the state of the economy, and employing the Kiefer, Vogelsang and Bunzel (KVB) approach, developed by KVB in 2000 to reconstruct the tests to improve the finite sample properties. The results show that: (1) there is no enough evidence to support that the preliminary and first revised data are unbiased and efficient; (2) there exist systematic errors related to the state of the economy, and hence information about the state of the economy was not incorporated into the GDP data. Furthermore, we find that there is a possibility that these systematic errors associated with the stages of the business cycle may offset each other, and there is also a possibility that there exist offsetting errors in the underlying components of GDP.     

Finance commission of India’s assessments: a political economy contention between expectations and outcomes

We explore the normative fiscal assessments of the Finance Commission (FC) of India, and realisation of fiscal policy with regard to Central Finances over the period 1990–2012. We employ the Theil’s inequality coefficient to investigate the magnitude of assessment errors and its partitioning in to bias, slope and random components. Furthermore, this article also evaluates the efficiency, biasedness and persistence of forecast errors. The robustness of the efficiency results are confirmed with the application of maximum entropy bootstrap. The objective of this study is to examine the structural basis on which FCs make their awards rather than examining the predictability of the forecasts. The story of FC’s assessments reflects an interesting political economy theatre of contention between aspirations and outcomes. Our key findings are as follows: First, source of errors for assessments of tax revenue, nontax revenue, interest payments, defence revenue expenditure, plan revenue expenditure and fiscal deficit is principally due to random component. However, the errors in the remaining economic parameters originate due to systematic components i.e. mean and slope errors. Second, the expenditure side predictability is lower than the revenue side predictability.     

‘Adaptive accumulation’ and US political economy

According to popular and academic understandings of political economy, the United States is characterised by the most open forms of free market production. From Marxist to institutionalist to liberal analyses, the US is said to exhibits a governance model in which state structures are minimally intrusive to capitalist civil society. There is a need for political economy that re-positions the US state as more than just a willing facilitator, lender-of-last-resort or minimal regulator of capitalist dynamics. This paper argues that ‘adaptive accumulation’ has normalised in the US context, wherein capital actively allies itself with public state objectives (and mechanisms) to seek new or enhanced profit streams, by transforming or rerouting public revenues, such that they afford private accumulation. The robust entry of capital in areas such as health, education and incarceration are highly notable, inasmuch as they harness public objectives for private but not-so-competitive ends. By shedding light on such domains, the paper contributes to our understanding of capital and its ongoing efforts to stay ahead of investment crises by actively shaping its operative environment – in this case, maintaining both the credibility and regularity of publicly inspired (and often financed) revenue streams while, ultimately, transforming their utilisation and purpose.     

Time for behavioral political economy? An analysis of articles in behavioral economics

This study analyzes leading research in behavioral economics to see whether it contains advocacy of paternalism and whether it addresses the potential cognitive limitations and biases of the policymakers who are going to implement paternalist policies. The findings reveal that 20.7% of the studied articles in behavioral economics propose paternalist policy action and that 95.5% of these do not contain any analysis of the cognitive ability of policymakers. This suggests that behavioral political economy, in which the analytical tools of behavioral economics are applied to political decision-makers as well, would offer a useful extension of the research program. Such an extension could be related to the concept of robust political economy, according to which the case for paternalism should be subjected to ??worst-case?? assumptions, such as policymakers being less than fully rational.     

David Hume's model of man: Classical political economy as “inspired” political economy

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to analyse David Hume's model of man. We show that three major elements characterize his representation of man: first the weaknesses and limitations of human rationality; second, the psychological foundations of human behaviour, with a particular focus on the role of association in human cognition; and third, the collective dimension of individual learning through a process of communication based on sympathy. Therefore, we show that the theory of human nature and human cognition Hume proposes is different from the narrow view of man as homo ?conomicus that is used by mainstream economists.     

Mill’s radical end of laissez-faire: A review essay of the political economy of progress: John Stuart Mill and modern radicalism

Can John Stuart Mill’s radicalism achieve liberal egalitarian ends? Joseph Persky’s The Political Economy of Progress is a provocative and compelling discussion of Mill’s economic thought. It is also a defense of radical political economy. Providing valuable historical context, Persky traces Mill’s intellectual journey as an outspoken proponent of laissez-faire to a cautious supporter of co-operative socialism. I propose two problems with Persky’s optimistic take on radical social reform. First, demands for substantive equality have led past radicals to endorse exclusionary nationalist and eugenics policies. It pushes some contemporary radicals towards illiberal interventions into intimate social life. Second, the radical critique of capitalism relies on an account of profit that neglects the epistemic function of private-property markets. Once this is acknowledged, capitalism retains some progressive credentials against radical alternatives.     

The transition of people’s preferences for the intervention of the government in the economy of re-unified Germany

Covering the first fifteen years immediately after German reunification, this paper analyzes the people??s support to the transition. The focus is on individuals?? preferences for the intervention of the government in the economy and on the opinion about competition per se. Eastern German data are compared with Western German data. Using suitable data that allow for interpersonal comparisons, the paper shows that Eastern Germans have always preferred an intervention of the public hand in the economy deeper than Western Germans; these different positions have hardly converged during the examined period of time. However there are no significant differences with respect to how Germans perceive competition per se: it is considered as a good by the people living in both parts of the country.     

An economic evaluation of SPREAD on Rwanda’s rural population

Sustainable Partnerships to Enhance Rural Enterprises and Agricultural Development (SPREAD) was a programme to enhance the value chain for commodities in Rwanda including coffee. The implicit concept was that improving the value chain would increase the incomes for smallholders and, hence, reduce the poverty rate. The results indicate that Rwanda coffee prices increased relative to an index price for traded coffee with the implementation of SPREAD. In addition, the results indicate that participation in the coffee market at this time was associated with higher household income and lower rates of poverty.     

The political economy of the Trans-Pacific Partnership: a ‘21st Century’ trade agreement?

The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) was the first of the ‘Mega-FTAs’ to be signed. Had it been ratified, it would have created the world’s largest preferential trade area. The negotiators of the TPP aspired to create ‘a next-generation transformative agreement’ that would address a new trade agenda focused on regulatory coherence and business facilitation. The expectation was that this agenda would generate a 21st Century trade politics that would be less contentious, at least among business actors, than traditional negotiations on market access. Studies of another Mega-FTA under negotiation, the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) that has a similar agenda found unified business support for the agreement domestically and the emergence of transnational business coalitions in support of the agreement. Recent theorising on trade politics suggests, however, that global value chains (GVCs) that involve vertical intra-industry trade introduce ‘traditional’ distributional issues that will divide business interests domestically – and, in the case of GVCs organised on different geographical bases, internationally as well. This cleavage was evident in the TPP negotiations, unlike those for TTIP, as were other divisions among business – both domestically and across countries – over the sharing of existing rents and of new rents generated by regulatory harmonisation.