中国粮食贸易新政策的经济效应分析

目前国际粮食供应趋紧，为保证国内粮食供给充足，世界各国纷纷采用取消农产品出口退税、征收出口关税等限制粮食出口的措施。中国从2007年12月始，相继出台了一系列旨在增加国内市场供应，遏制粮食价格上涨的政策。文章从粮农、消费者等角度综合研究新政策的经济效应，分析中国粮食贸易新政策效果，探求影响实施效果的问题所在并给出政策建议。     

Uniform versus Discriminatory Tariffs: When Will Export Taxes Be Used?

This paper examines the noncooperative interactions between two exporting countries and one importing country when all of them are seeking the optimal policies to improve their welfare. Whereas the importing country has the incentive to impose tariffs on the goods coming from the two exporting countries, the export policies chosen by the exporting countries depend on the tariff regime, whether uniform or discriminatory tariffs are used. It is argued that export taxes are chosen by both exporting countries in some cases, and that whereas the importing country prefers a uniform tariff regime, the exporting countries find a discriminatory tariff regime preferable.     

提高粮食安全水平 促进农民增收的国际经验借鉴

本文将从粮食进口国和粮食出口国的角度分析提高粮食安全水平,促进农民增收的国际经验,并重点分析在人地资源制约方面与中国有相似性的日本和韩国,探讨有利于提高粮食安全水平,促进农民增收的国际经验借鉴。     

美元汇率对美国进出口商品价格传递率的实证分析

本文实证分析了美元汇率按美国总进出口价格、分段进出口价格、分类商品进出口价格的传递率。实证结果表明,无论美元升值还是贬值,美国的进出口价格指数都会下降,而且美国出口价格的传递率比同期进口价格的传递率要小得多,升值期的传递率也比贬值期的传递率要小;美元升值比贬值对美国经常账户赤字的纠正更有利。因此,建议美国实行美元适度升值的政策,而且要结合其他政策才能改善其巨额经常账户赤字。     

后危机时代的贸易保护

金融危机过后，各国进入经济复苏时期，首要任务肯定是扶持国内实体经济，限制进口。     

WELFARE EFFECTS OF RISING OIL PRICES IN OIL‐IMPORTING DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Oil prices began climbing consistently in 2002, reaching a record high in July 2008. Though this trend slipped back thereafter, owing to the global economic crisis, oil prices seem to be gradually regaining upward movement. Through an analysis of counterfactual simulations based on a dynamic computable general equilibrium model, this paper shows that the negative impact on GDP of the most recent oil price boom has been substantial in six oil‐importing developing countries, as high as 2% to 3% of GDP per year in some cases, producing unemployment and higher consumer prices and, as a consequence, reduced welfare. Importantly, welfare losses have been much less for countries that have witnessed gains from higher export‐commodity prices. Even for these countries, however, policy action is called for to soften the impact of potential future oil price booms.     

Export quotas versus export tariffs in the presence of domestic monopoly

The purpose of this paper is to show that export quotas and export tariffs are different in their economic effects when there is domestic monopoly. In the presence of domestic monopoly, an export quota may not reduce the domestic price of the exportable good, whereas an export tariff will always reduce it. This is true whether the country concerned is a small country or a large country.     

Trade Protection in Five EU Member Candidate Countries by Exchange Rate Adjustment,Customs Tariffs,and Nontariff Measures

Five central European candidate member countries for EU accession (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia = CE-5) entered into the transition period with undervalued exchange rates to stimulate exports and protect domestic industries. However, this policy was not maintained. During 1993–1995, real currency appreciation increased competitive pressure by foreign firms. To protect domestic firms, governments applied high third-country tariffs, temporary import taxes, and numerous administrative barriers to trade. As countervailing pressure by the EU and the U.S. increased and current account deficits soared in 1996 and 1997, the five countries more and more brought exchange rate policies in line with the changes in purchasing power parity.There seems to be a positive correlation between large current account deficits and the more intense use of nontariff protectionist measures. Using exchange rate measures, Slovenia keeps the current account rather balanced. It employs many less nontariff protectionist measures than the other four countries, which show strong tendencies towards real exchange rate appreciation.     

China's import duty drawback and VAT rebate policies: A general equilibrium analysis

China's duty drawbacks and value-added tax rebates play important roles in promoting exports. Simulations from a CGE model, characterized by a dual production (domestic sales and export processing) and dual import structure (imports used in export processing and for other purposes), confirm our theoretical results on China's exports that (a) such policies are generally export promoting; (b) a small part of the export expansion comes at the expense of a slight decline of the domestic activity through factor re-allocation and input substitution, whereas a larger portion of the expansion is attributed to cheaper access to foreign inputs; (c) export processors use more imported inputs and less domestic inputs; and (d) export intensive sectors are positively affected by these policies, whereas traditional agriculture sector is impacted adversely. These policies generate welfare gains for China.     

Sectoral Price Movements under the Yen Appreciation

This paper analyzes the movements of tradable goods prices in Japan. The import price indices and the export price indices are matched with the domestic wholesale price indices at the most detailed level available for Japan, and the pricing behavior in the yen appreciation period (1985–1995) is examined. In the import-side analysis, we investigate how far the price movements under currency appreciation deviate from the law of one price. We find that internal–external price differentials have surprisingly expanded for most of the products since 1985. For a number of commodities, the import prices do not decline as far as the exchange rate appreciates, and the domestic wholesale prices do not decrease as far as the import prices decline. Although the expanded price gaps cannot necessarily be interpreted as a result of deliberate trade barriers, they suggest that some sort of handicap is imposed on imported goods and the large fraction of rent generated by the yen appreciation is intercepted in the middle. In the export-side analysis, the relationship between the globalization of firms' activities and export pass-through is investigated. Our cross-sectional regression analysis indicates that the export path-through rates tend to be low when the value added ratios of foreign production of Japanese firms are high. Low export pass-through under currency appreciation is often interpreted as a result of firms' attempts to keep their foreign market share, but the globalization of firms' activities may be another important factor in lowering the pass-through.J. Japan Int. Econ.,December 1997,11(4), pp. 611–641. Department of Economics, Keio University, 2-15-45 Mita, Minato-ku, Tokyo 108, Japan.     

Did Muhammad Ali foster industrialization in early nineteenth‐century Egypt?

Muhammad Ali, who ruled Egypt between 1805 and 1849, intervened in Egyptian markets in an attempt to foster industrialization, especially between 1812 and 1840. Like a modern marketing board, the state purchased agricultural commodities (cotton and wheat) at low prices and sold them on world markets at much higher prices, a policy equivalent to an export tax. Ali also replaced tax farming with his own land taxes. The revenues so derived were used in part to finance manufacturing investment and to build irrigation canals. In addition, Ali supplied flax and cotton at those cheap purchase prices to domestic textile manufacturing, thus subsidizing the industry. He also used non‐tariff barriers to exclude foreign competition from domestic markets. Were Ali's state‐led policies successful in fostering industry? The answer is no easier to extract from this phase of Egyptian history than from that of other poor countries at that time. This is because Egypt faced the same terms of trade boom typical of most poor commodity exporters, which was causing de‐industrialization everywhere else in the poor periphery. Ali picked a very difficult time to pursue his agenda, but we show that his policies were successful.     

我国粮食安全与农业结构调整取向:观照国际经验

我国基本不会发生粮食供给危机,调整农业生产结构并不威胁长期粮食供给稳定。结合日、韩经验,主动发展合同农业,利用国内、国际两种资源、开发国内、国际两个市场,适度降低粮食自给率,积极扩大土地密集型农作物进口及鼓励高附加值经济作物的出口,在保证我国粮食供给安全的基础上,适度调整农业生产结构能有效提高农民整体收入水平。     

THE ECONOMICS OF IMPORT PARITY PRICING: A PEDAGOGICAL NOTE

This paper demonstrates that pricing to import parity is not necessarily prima facie evidence of the exercise of market power. It is shown that in the presence of imports both market structures, perfect competition and monopoly, can price to import parity. If markets can be segmented enabling the firm to discriminate between the export and domestic market it is shown that the imperfectly competitive firm can differentially price. Furthermore, as the number of domestic firms is increased, and if these firms are able to segment the market, the differential between domestic and foreign prices is reduced. The import parity price may or may not be charged in the domestic market. A measure of the exercise of market power is therefore the differential between export parity and the domestic price.     

Indonesia's Non-Oil Export Performance During the Economic Crisis: Distinguishing Price Trends from Quantity Trends

Despite an enormous currency depreciation, the growth rate of Indonesia's non-oil exports, measured in dollars, did not accelerate during the first two years of the Asian crisis. In fact, during the second year of the crisis non-oil export value dropped sharply. This paper demonstrates that the main reason for the decline in the dollar value of non-oil exports was a collapse of export prices. Non-oil export dollar prices fell 26% between the second quarter of 1997 and the second quarter of 1999. Measured at constant prices, non-oil exports grew 24% and manufactured exports 31% during this period. Non-oil import prices fell by roughly the same amount as non-oil export prices during the crisis, with little change in the non-oil terms of trade. The decline in the price of traded goods significantly reduced the magnitude of the real exchange rate depreciation experienced by Indonesia.     

Impact of Tariffs on Industries and Prices in Finland during the Interwar Period

Abstract

While there has been some analysis of the role of tariffs in Finland during the interwar period, quantitative estimates of the benefits and drawbacks are quite rare. This article examines the impact of tariffs on industries value added and prices during the interwar period calculating the effective rate of protection as well as using an input-output price model. The basis for both calculations is an input-output table describing the Finnish economy in 1928. It is argued that the Finnish tariff policy was basically a contra-price-fall policy, directed merely towards agricultural and food products. The focus was on securing the domestic supply of food products. The results also suggest that tariffs did not provide sufficient protection to new industries – contradicting the infant industry argument repeated in some of the earlier studies.     

战略性出口关税:能够有效缓解贸易摩擦的短期措施

本文运用异质产品的古诺(伯川德)模型以及将水平、垂直差异化产品纳入D-S模型,分析了战略性出口关税对于出口行业,进口竞争行业以及进口国社会福利的影响,并将结果与其他战略性贸易政策进行对比和分析。我们的结论是:我国通过战略性出口关税来缓解贸易摩擦的效果要优于使用其他战略性贸易政策,这有利于调整出口产业结构,培育出口企业自身能力,并与我国的长期发展目标相吻合。但是战略性出口关税可能带来的社会经济问题不容忽视。     

Trade and Tax Reforms in a Cash‐in‐Advance Economy

We examine the effects of both tariff‐only and coordinated trade‐tax reforms on market access, government revenue, and welfare for a small monetary economy, under the assumption that a certain fraction of purchases of each good must be financed with cash held in advance. We show that if the cash requirement ratio in the exportable sector is greater than that in the importable, then, contrary to previous results, (i) a uniform radial reduction of tariffs has ambiguous effects on both welfare and market access, (ii) tariff and consumption tax reforms that leave consumer prices unchanged may be more efficient in improving market access and welfare than a reform that involves only tariffs, and (iii) export and production tax reforms that keep producer prices unchanged may be welfare deteriorating.     

Natural resources and non-cooperative trade policy

When looking at the conditions of trade in natural resources the world appears upside down: tariff protection in natural resources sectors is generally lower than for overall merchandise trade, while export restrictions are twice as likely as in other sectors. On the other hand, tariff escalation is significant in natural resources sectors, where materials in their raw state face, on average, lower duties than in their processed form. In this paper, we discuss how export taxes and tariff escalation may be the result of an uncooperative trade policy. Specifically, tariff escalation and export taxes can be “beggar-thy-neighbor” policies because governments may be tempted to use them to alter the relative price of exports to their advantage (terms-of-trade effect) or to expand the domestic processing industry at the expenses of foreign production (production relocation effect). In equilibrium, these policies offset each other in a Prisoners’ Dilemma situation, where trade is inefficiently low.     

Can Import Tariffs Deter Outward FDI?

In this paper we analyze a country's optimal trade policy when its labor market is unionized and firms are footloose. We show that an important objective for governments to use import protection is to prevent their domestic multinationals to go to a non-unionized location abroad and to serve their country from a distance. A domestic government will set a positive tariff to dissuade its multinational from engaging in outward FDI when the additional profits it repatriates, do not compensate for the loss of domestic union rent. To put it differently, we show that when the domestic labor market is unionized, trade liberalisation between countries with similar wage levels is likely to result in domestic welfare losses as a result of outward FDI. Only when wage differences between countries are large enough, can outward FDI improve domestic welfare and optimal tariffs will be zero. JEL Classification Numbers: L13, F23     

Policy analysis with Melitz-type gravity model: Evidence from Kyrgyzstan

Several governments worldwide aim at fostering agricultural productivity growth by providing investment support. However, the policy’s effect on trade for middle- and low-income countries has not been analyzed so far. This paper analyzes the impact of agricultural policies (credit subsidies and tariffs) on agricultural trade flows by modifying a Melitz-type structural gravity model for a small and open economy. According to the theory, trade flows are expected to increase with credit subsidies and decrease with partners’ applied tariff rates. We analyze bilateral agricultural trade flows between Kyrgyzstan and its 69 trading partners from 2007 to 2018 to test our theoretical findings. Applying the Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood estimator, we find that credit subsidies effectively increase international trade flows while applied tariffs imposed on agricultural products reduce Kyrgyzstan’s export substantially. These results can be applied to similar economies with publicly available data where small budgetary efforts drive trade expansion.