Population growth and per capita income： A panel cointegration analysis

The noteworthy effects of demographic factors on economic development have been well documented. However, the empirical formulation grounds heavily on theoretical framework. Moreover, there is no set agreement on the relationship between population growth and per capita income. This paper retraces the famous pastime relationship for a sample of thirty-two countries classified as developing and developed over the period of 1970-2007. The methodology includes panel unit root tests and panel cointegration analysis. The main conclusion of the study is that population growth is an indicator of per capita income. The empirical findings display the existence of cointegration for both country groups. Moreover, the results support a significantly positive effect for developed countries; whereas a significantly negative effect for developing countries.     

Income distribution and total factor productivity: a cross-country panel cointegration analysis

International Economics and Economic Policy - This study investigates the relationship between income inequality and total factor productivity (TFP) across countries for a period covering the years...     

Financial integration in East Asia: Evidence from panel unit root and panel cointegration tests

The aim of this paper is to investigate the degree of financial integration for selected East Asian countries from 1988 to 2006 using the recently developed panel unit root and panel cointegration techniques. Investment and savings rates are found to be nonstationary and not to be cointegrated in panels. We estimate modified Feldstein–Horioka equations and our results reveal a high degree of financial integration. When we homogenize our data, results show that high-income countries have stronger financial integration than middle-income countries. Finally, we proceed to stability tests in order to test if there is a crisis effect and we find that financial integration is stronger in the post-crisis period.     

A cointegration analysis of dynamic externalities

This paper presents a cointegration analysis on the effects of dynamic externalities upon economic growth using time-series data from 1975 to 2003 on the one-digit industries of the Tokyo metropolitan area in Japan. Some new time-series econometric methods that have been recently developed to conduct unit root and cointegration tests are used in the analysis, allowing for an endogenously determined structural change in the time period studied. It also proposes a new type of dynamic externalities, called Network dynamic externalities, to represent knowledge spillovers resulting from the whole agglomerated area via transportation networks, and shows that they have cointegrated relations with the total factor productivity (TFP) of the manufacturing, finance, wholesale and retail trade, as well as the overall industries. In addition, evidence is also found that Marshall–Arrow–Romer (MAR) dynamic externalities, which are associated with own industrial production concentration, affect the TFP of most industries selected for estimation. However, Jacobs dynamic externalities, which are represented by the diversity of industrial production, only contribute to the TFP of the services industry, and Porter dynamic externalities, which are expressed by the competitiveness within industries, do not influence the selected industrial TFP.     

Inflation and economic growth: A dynamic panel threshold analysis for Asian economies

This paper investigates the existence of a threshold level for inflation and how any such level affects the growth of Asian economies. We use a dynamic panel threshold growth regression, which allows for fixed effects and endogeneity. We observe a nonlinear relationship between inflation and economic growth for 32 Asian countries over the period 1980–2009. We detect an inflation threshold of approximately 5.43%, at a 1% level of significance. We find that inflation hurts growth when it exceeds 5.43% but has no effect below this level. Different estimation methods determine that the effect of inflation on growth is robust. Our findings may be useful to central banks as a guide for inflation targeting.     

The road to pro-poor growth: the Indonesian experience in regional perspective

Indonesia's long-run ‘pro-poor growth’ record is among the best in Asia. It shows that appropriate policies can free societies from poverty's worst manifestations in a generation, a crucial message as democracy begins to influence the policy process. This paper places Indonesia's record in regional perspective, analysing determinants of income distribution in Asia and connecting this analysis to Indonesia's pro-poor growth process and the policy mechanisms that encourage pro-poor growth. Using a data set for eight Asian countries, it examines patterns of change in incomes and distribution across countries and over time. Building on Indonesian experience, the paper presents a pro-poor growth model encompassing three levels: improving the ‘capabilities’ of the poor, lowering transactions costs in the economy, especially between rural and urban areas, and increasing demand for goods and services produced by the poor. It finds that rapid pro-poor growth requires simultaneous and balanced interaction between growth and distribution processes.     

Changes in the source of China's regional inequality

This paper examines whether the dominant sources of China's regional inequality have changed since the early 1980s. We adopt the decomposition method introduced by Tsui (1993) to facilitate comparisons with his results for 1982. The decomposition analysis shows that the dominant sources of overall regional inequality in output have shifted from the intraprovincial to interprovincial inequality, from the rural–urban to intrarural inequality, and also from the disparity within the coast to between the coast and the interior. In the case of consumption, however, the intraprovincial inequality, the rural–urban inequality, and the disparity within the coast are the major factors of the overall regional inequality.     

The impacts of structural transformation and industrial upgrading on regional inequality in China

China has achieved unprecedented success in economic growth since the initiation of economic reforms. The high growth could partly be attributed to the successes in structural transformation of the economy and industrial upgrading of the manufacturing sector toward high value-added products. However, regional inequality in China has increased considerably behind the scenes. In order to have sustainable economic growth, it is thus crucial to investigate the impacts of both structural transformation and industrial upgrading on regional inequality. This paper contributes to the literature by employing a database compiled at the county-level. Decompositions are performed for different spatial groupings so as to provide a clear view of evolution of regional inequality. In addition, the contributions of the major industries to inequality in industrialization are examined by using another database of value-added compiled at the provincial level. The results may have important policy implications for the formulation of a comprehensive and coherent strategy in managing inequality while promoting structural transformation and industrial upgrading.     

The growth,poverty and inequality nexus in South Africa: Cointegration and causality analysis

This study empirically established the long-run relationship and causality effects that exist between growth, poverty and inequality. The analysis was carried out on a panel of nine South African provinces from 1995 to 2012. To capture poverty and inequality in a broader context, two measures of poverty (income and non-income) and three measures of inequality (income, education and land) were adopted for the study. The results confirm that there is a long-run relationship between growth, poverty and inequality. Notable results from the causality tests suggest that growth does not promote equal distribution of income in society but as income distribution begins to equalise, economic growth rises. This is regarded as growth–inequality disconnect. The unidirectional causality, which runs from income poverty to income inequality, suggests that a rising level of income poverty will lead to falling income inequality in the society; likewise, income inequality increases as non-income poverty declines.     

金融危机与中国经济增长—基于省级面板数据实证分析

本文选取2008～2010年东、中、西部省市级18座代表城市的季度数据并运用面板数据模型,考察了金融危机对中国经济的影响。研究表明,出口额、实际利用外资、社会总消费水平对中国经济增长的相关关系为正数,但是出口额与实际利用外资对经济增长的贡献远不及社会总消费水平对中国经济增长贡献。因此得出,金融危机爆发后,中国经济主要依靠政府政策性调控,然而以政府为主导的经济增长方式并不利于经济的长期稳定发展。     

The domestic term structure and international interest rate linkages: A cointegration analysis

The Domestic Term Structure and International Interest Rate Linkages. A Cointegration Analysis. -This paper analyzes cointegration relations between domestic interest rates with different maturities and between the US and German interest rates of the same maturity by means of the Johansen procedure and single-equation error correction models. It analyzes also the implied common stochastic trends. The author concludes that in the long run, interest spreads within both countries strongly dominate and linkages between the interest rates of both countries are only important in the short run.     

Productive government expenditure and its impact on income inequality: evidence from international panel data

Review of World Economics - This paper addresses the impact of productive government expenditure on income inequality using a dataset of 80 countries over the period of 1980–2015. It...     

Re-examining foreign direct investment,exports, and economic growth in asian economies using a bootstrap ARDL test for cointegration

This paper examines whether there is a long-run relationship among foreign direct investment (FDI), exports, and gross domestic product (GDP) in selected Asian economies. We use a newly developed cointegration test, the bootstrap autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL), to examine this long-run relationship. The motivation for using the bootstrap methodology is to generate and apply critical values for the ARDL test that are valid and appropriate for the specific data sets used. Further, the bootstrap tests allow for endogeneity and feedback that may exist. Pesaran et al. (2001) highlighted the possibility of degenerate cases, but empirical studies in general ignore these and may conclude that cointegration exists when it does not. Our tests fail to find evidence of cointegration when GDP is the dependent variable. The absence of a long-run forcing relation from FDI and exports to GDP implies that FDI and exports were not the sole sources of economic growth in our selected Asian economies.     

Pro-poor growth,poverty and inequality in rural Vietnam

This study explores the effects of Vietnam's transition on the welfare of different ethnic groups in rural Vietnam. It draws on three rounds of national household surveys in 2002, 2004 and 2006. It is first observed that the pace of poverty reduction for minorities surpassed the majority over the period 2002–2006, although poor people were still concentrated in the minority groups throughout the period. Secondly, the disparity in living standards has been widening. In particular, inequality within both the majority and minority groups increased over the period. Thirdly, the study shows that the effect of economic growth on poverty is estimated to have been greater if inequality remained constant. It is also noted that the impacts of economic growth on poverty vary across different ethnic groups. Finally, regression decompositions of within inequality have confirmed that the main driver of inequality is not the same among ethnic groups. Given the diversity across different ethnic groups, we can conclude that government policy aimed at equal access to infrastructure and more equal distribution of assets, such as land, for ethnic minority groups would lead to more equal distribution of consumption and poverty reduction of those groups. Also, consideration of local needs would be necessary in designing and implementing public policies, given the heterogeneous socio-economic circumstances surrounding each ethnic minority group.     

Evidence of panel stationarity from Chinese provincial and regional income

The aim of this paper is to examine whether Chinese provincial and regional real GDP and per capita real GDP are panel stationary for the period 1952–2003. We allow for multiple structural breaks based on a technique developed by Carrion-i-Silvestre et al. [Carrion-i-Silvestre, J. L., Barrio-Castro, T, D., & Lopez-Bazo, E. (2005). Breaking the panels: An application to the GDP per capita. Econometrics Journal, 8, 159–175]. Allowing for at most five structural breaks, we find that for 67% of the provinces, per capita real GDP is stationary; while we only find stationarity of real GDP for 17% of the provinces. However, when we extend the analysis to panel data models, we find statistically strong evidence of panel stationarity of Chinese provincial and regional income.     

Economic growth,inequality, and poverty in Vietnam

This study examines how poverty reduction has been associated with economic growth and inequality in Vietnam. It finds that although the speed of poverty reduction was lower in the 2000s than in the 1990s, economic growth was more pro‐poor in the latter period. During the 1993–98 period, expenditure inequality increased and the poverty reduction during this period was mainly caused by economic growth. During the 2004–08 period, however, expenditure inequality decreased, thereby contributing to poverty reduction. The poverty incidence declined by around 5 percentage points, of which expenditure growth and redistribution contributed 2.8 and 2.2 percentage points of poverty reduction, respectively.     

What happened to regional inequality in Britain in the twentieth century?

New estimates of regional GDP for Great Britain in the twentieth century differ from those of Crafts but confirm his hypothesis of a U‐shaped regional inequality curve between 1911 and 2001. Comparison of these estimates with revised estimates for 1861–1911 suggests that the decline in inequality in the first half of the twentieth century forms part of a trend of declining regional inequality and catch‐up of the poorer regions with the richest (the South East) dating back to the 1860s at least. This convergence trend was interrupted by the First World War and the subsequent difficulties of Outer Britain in the 1920s when the gap between the South East and the rest widened. However, sometime after 1931 it picked up again. Since 1971 inequality has worsened and catch‐up has stopped; indeed, there has been divergence of the South East from the rest. This divergence has been especially marked since 1991. Although growth for all regions was faster during the period of increasing regional inequality that encompasses the second half of the twentieth century, the golden age of economic growth for regions outside the South East occurred during the long boom following the Second World War.