股权再融资、盈余管理与大股东的寻租行为

我国上市公司处于大股东的超强控制状态,大股东与中小股东之间存在严重的信息不对称,导致大股东在股权再融资过程中表现出强烈的盈余管理动机.本文研究了我国资本市场参与者的行为与盈余管理之间的关系,并分析了对资本配置效率的影响效应.大股东通过操纵报告盈余来改变会计盈余的时间分布和误导投资者,从而攫取更多的隐性收益,造成资本市场配置效率的降低.研究结果表明:(1)大股东通过盈余管理在股权再融资过程中可以获得中小股东无法得到的隐性收益;(2)大股东的收益随着盈余管理程度的增加而提升,中小股东的财富随着盈余管理程度的增加而降低;(3)盈余管理程度的增加将降低上市公司的资本配置效率和企业价值.因此,大股东通过盈余管理实现了对小股东财富的掠夺效应,造成了上市公司资本配置效率、公司价值、声誉和后续融资能力的下降.     

Housing, Land Prices, and Growth

We consider the effects of land for housingon the growth process within an overlapping generations model.Our original interest was to enquire whether the introductionof land into a growth model might account for a ``virtuous'circle in which saving-up for land (or housing) generates growthand higher land prices, generating further increases in saving,and so on. Such an account is sometimes proposed for high savingrates in East Asia, where mortgage markets are limited or absent.Our analysis does not support such a story. The user cost ofland reduces the resources available for consumption of reproduciblegoods, so that the introduction of intrinsically valuable landinto a growth model lowers the equilibrium stock of capital andraises the equilibrium interest rate. On the asset side, thepresence of land causes life-cycle savings to be reallocatedaway from productive capital towards land. The social optimumin such a model is for land to be nationalized and provided atzero rent. Land markets, far from generating saving and growth,are inimical to capital formation.     

房价水平、交通成本与产业区位分布关系再考量

中心城市房价水平或地租水平的提高具有客观性。房价水平和交通成本变动对制造业区位分布影响较大,而对于生产性服务业的影响并不显著。占用土地面积较大的制造业向外转移不仅有可能抵消房价上涨的压力,而且为具有更高附加值的生产性服务业的发展创造条件。房价水平上涨和交通成本提高加快中心城市制造业的扩散以及生产性服务业的集聚,客观上促使城市间由专业化分工向功能分工结构转变,推动中心城市实现产业升级,有利于形成合理的区域分工格局。     

关于高房价的思考

中国房价已高得离谱,原因在于房地产商的炒作和地方政府的推动,背后是金融体制的缺陷和人们的市场迷思,需通过改革金融体制引导公众把钱投资到更有效的领域.     

对平抑商品房价格的几点看法

文章从商品房价格构成入手,就如何改进土地管理制度、建立房地产信息监督与服务体系、减少规费等方面的问题,提出了对平抑商品房价格的一些认识。     

城市化进程中的人力资本与住房价格

以人为载体的人力资本随着城市化的发展而流动,通过人口迁移,积累到宏观层面就形成了城市的人力资本存量.城市人力资本水平的提升能够增加城市住房的有效需求,推动房价上涨,并且城市人力资本水平对房价的正向影响存在异质性.为探究城市化进程中城市人力资本水平与城市住房价格之间的关系,对中国255个地级市的面板数据采用动态面板分位数回归的方法进行了实证检验,实证结果表明城市人力资本水平与城市住房价格之间存在正向关系,高人力资本水平对高房价地区房价的正向影响程度更大.     

如何加强住房公积金内部控制

随着社会经济的发展,人们生活水平的提高,住房公积金制度在促进房地产事业的发展、个人住房保障、个人住房消费、改善生活水平等方面发挥了重要作用。住房公积金作为职工个人的长期住房储金,住房公积金的管理直接关系到群众的切身利益。从业务控制、岗位设置与授权审批、内部审批三个方面阐述了如何加强住房公积金内部控制。     

复杂产品系统集成商的市场控制力

认为复杂产品系统集成商构建其市场控制力需要面对3个要素——政府、竞争者和客户,据此构建了由应对政府能力、应对竞争者能力和应对客户能力构成的复杂产品系统集成商市场控制力模型。通过分析模型得出:企业根据自身的经验判断和估计针对3种能力设置的资源分配比例是影响其市场控制力的关键;复杂产品系统制造企业的所有制形式、高管社会资本和市场结构特征等因素会影响企业获取3种能力的难易程度,企业在这些因素上的不同导致企业的市场控制力存在差异。     

住房公积金风险分析与防控

住房公积金制度是我国政府实施的一项住房保障制度,但是在其运作过程中,其风险贯穿于住房公积金缴存、使用和管理的全过程。对住房公积金的风险进行全面的分析,剖析风险存在的根源,提出构建科学的监管模式、进行实时监控以及在各环节有针对性地进行风险防范具有重要的现实意义。     

The Economics of Tenancy Rent Control

We consider a rent control regime where rent increases on, and eviction of, a sitting tenant are forbidden. When apartments become vacant landlords may negotiate new rents. If inflation exists, landlords prefer to rent to short-staying tenants. Since departure-date-contingent contracts are forbidden and landlords cannot tell whether tenants are short-stayers, an adverse selection problem arises, with a Pareto inefficient equilibrium. When tenant types are determined endogenously, multiple equilibria can arise where one equilibrium is Pareto dominated. Abolition of the rent control regime, cannot only shift the equilibrium out of this inferior outcome, but also result in across-the-board lowering of rents.     

我国房价高涨的寻租因素分析及防范

房地产业是我国的支柱产业,但居高不下的房价对居民生活和经济发展都产生了一定的影响。为了寻求我国房价上涨的原因,作者首先分析了我国房地产业的发展现状,发现我国房地产业在扩张的同时面临着供给不足和空置率过高并存的矛盾;进而通过收益估价法,比较了我国房屋合理售价与实际售价的差别,认为其差值过大的原因是我国房地产市场上存在着寻租因素;最后分析了房地产寻租的危害,提出了抑制寻租的方法和措施。     

The allocation of entrepreneurial efforts in a rent-seeking society: Evidence from China

This paper considers four types of entrepreneurial efforts: productive activities, aggressive rent seeking, defense against rent extraction, and leisure. It examines how entrepreneurs allocate efforts when facing dual-dealing relationships with politicians in a rent-seeking society: entrepreneurs not only pursue additional benefits through rent seeking, but also try to avoid extortions by politicians. Using unique city-level and firm-level data across China, we demonstrate that Chinese entrepreneurs survive in a twisted world: ordinary entrepreneurs would desire better institutional environment, but if institutional improvement is not available, they would prefer political connections which are often preoccupied by special interest groups and/or large-sized firms.     

房地产属性、收入差距与房价变动趋势

以往关于收入差距与房价之间关系的研究,较少兼顾房地产的消费与投资双重属性。文章基于双重属性的角度,首先从理论上阐述了收入差距与房价之间的动态关系。在经济发展水平较低的情况下,房地产的消费属性凸显,收入差距扩大会抑制房价上涨;随着经济的进一步发展,房地产单一属性不明显,收入差距变化对房价不存在显著影响;当经济发展水平较高时,房地产投资属性占优,收入差距扩大会促进房价上涨。进一步对理论结果进行实证研究发现,整体上我国收入差距与房价之间无显著相关关系,单一属性不明显;但就省际差异而言,在经济发展水平较高的省份,收入差距促进了房价上涨,而在经济发展水平较低的省份,收入差距则抑制了房价上涨。随着时间的变化,收入差距由抑制房价上涨转变为促进房价上涨。     

房价、房租与居民的买租选择:理论分析与实证检验

房价与房租间具有内在的传导机制,并对居民买租选择产生影响。研究发现,影响房租上涨的直接因素不是房价,而是市场交易量;房价通过影响交易量间接影响房租。住房租赁市场与商品房交易市场相互影响,因此,必须从政策上保证二者协同发展。当前如外科手术似的宏观调控,为政策性住房介入房地产市场调节赢得了时间,通过平衡租赁市场和交易市场供求,形成合理的房价租金比水平,是房地产业达到系统性稳定的基础。     

中国利率政策与房地产价格的互动关系研究

本文通过建立结构向量自回归模型对中国房地产价格与利率政策之间的互动关系进行了探讨,发现中国的利率政策并不能对房地产价格形成有效的调节,造成了利率政策房地产价格传导渠道的失效;相反,房地产价格冲击对利率政策却具有显著的正向影响,说明中国历史上的利率政策制定的确参考了房地产价格因素,并对其作出了一定的反应。本文还利用模拟分析对样本期间内我国利率政策的实施效果进行了分析评价。研究结论对中国中央银行利率政策的有效执行及房地产市场调控具有重要政策启示。     

The Impact of Monetary Policy and Housing-Purchase Restrictions on Housing Prices in China

This paper examines the level and volatility effect of monetary policy on housing prices in China utilizing a novel set of housing price indices constructed by (Fang, H., QuanlinGu, W. X., & Zhou, L.-A. (2015). Demystifying the Chinese housing boom. NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2015, Volume 30. University of Chicago Press.). We find that in the long-run, average housing prices react positively to inflation, money supply and bank lending growth, and negatively to the reserve requirement ratio and benchmark lending rate. Housing prices in Tier 1 cities respond more sensitively to monetary shocks relative to Tier 2 and 3 cities, possibly due to surging demand and limited supply under housing-purchase restrictions (HPR). We further study the volatility effect of monetary shocks using the GARCH model and find that the benchmark lending rate, reserve requirement ratio and money supply growth have strong negative impact on the volatility of housing price growth. Our benchmark results remain robust after incorporating the HPR policy variable in the estimation, with a significant negative effect of HPR on housing price growth in Tier 1 and Tier 2 cities. Lastly, we conclude with recommendations on future monetary policy design and implementation, with a specific focus on the heterogeneous characteristics of China’s housing market.     

Hazardous Waste Hits Hollywood: Superfund and Housing Prices in Los Angeles

This paper contributes to the ongoing debate concerning the effect of various actions taken by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency under CERCLA, commonly known as the Superfund Program, on housing prices. This study uses a housing transaction panel dataset encompassing the five major counties of the Los Angeles Combined Statistical Area to estimate the program’s influence on the local housing market. Using house and time-varying census tract fixed effects, I am able to avoid many of the endogeneity problems seen in previous research attempting to measure the Superfund treatment effect. An estimate of the effect on housing prices is given for each of the major events that occur under a typical Superfund remediation. After controlling for confounding correlated unobservables, I find a 7.3 % increase in sales price for houses within 3 km of a site that moves through the complete Superfund program. The analysis gives evidence of positive price appreciation for housing markets and serves as a lower bound for measuring remediation benefits.     

房价与地价关系的因果检验:1998-2006

文章在考虑通货膨胀的条件下,利用我国1998-2006年的房价和地价的季度数据建立误差纠正模型(ECM),使用Granger因果检验方法对我国的房价和地价的关系进行实证检验,得出结论:短期而言,房价对地价没有影响,而地价是房价的Granger原因;长期来说,房价和地价存在双向因果关系.因此,要控制房价,短期内关键是抑制地价过快上涨;长期则要通过合理安排土地供给,加强住宅的建设规划引导,从而避免房地产价格的大起大落.     

住宅价格与居民收入均衡关系及住房支付能力稳定性

文章通过聚类分析将35个大中城市按2000-2009年住宅价格分为四组,结合面板单位根、协整和格兰杰因果检验对住宅价格和居民收入的均衡关系进行了分析,并运用FMOLS模型探讨了住房支付能力稳定性问题。分析表明:35个大中城市的住宅价格和居民收入之间存在长期均衡关系,但支付能力稳定性比较弱;住宅价格和居民收入互为因果关系;住房支付能力稳定性弱不是普遍现象,仅存在于高房价城市;除收入外,城市的食品消费、医疗、教育和交通通信等软硬件设施也是影响住宅价格的重要因素。