Distinguishing Between Rationales for Short‐Horizon Predictability of Stock Returns

In this paper, we shed light on short‐horizon return reversals. We show theoretically that a risk‐based rationale for reversals implies a relation between returns and past order flow, whereas a reversion in beliefs of biased agents does not do so. The empirical results indicate that returns are more strongly related to own‐return lags than to lagged order imbalances. Thus, the evidence suggests that monthly reversals are not completely captured by inventory effects and may be driven, in part, by belief reversion. We do find that returns are cross‐sectionally related to lagged imbalance innovations at horizons longer than a month.     

Short‐Horizon Return Predictability in International Equity Markets

This study measures the degree of short‐horizon return predictability of 50 international equity markets and examines how its variation is related to the indicators of equity market development. Two multiple‐horizon variance ratio tests are employed to measure the degree of return predictability. We find evidence that return predictability is negatively correlated with publicly available indicators of equity market development. Our cross‐sectional regression analysis shows that the per capita gross domestic product, market turnover, investor protection, and absence of short‐selling restrictions are correlated with cross‐market variations in return predictability.     

Relative Liquidity,Fund Flows and Short‐Term Demand: Evidence from Exchange‐Traded Funds

We show that highly liquid Exchange‐Traded Funds (ETFs), especially those that are more liquid than their underlying basket of securities (i.e., positive relative liquidity), are particularly attractive to investors. Using three definitions of liquidity, we find that relative liquidity predicts net fund flows, as well as inflows and outflows positively and significantly. We further document a liquidity clientele among institutional investors: (i) relative liquidity is significantly more important for short‐ than for long‐term investors; and (ii) relative liquidity is inversely related to investors’ average holding duration in the ETFs. These two findings provide evidence that relative liquidity encourages short‐term demand.     

Information and Long‐Term Stock Performance Following Open‐Market Share Repurchases

We find that firm managers have private information when they decide on open‐market share repurchases, and that this information is significantly correlated with announcement period and post‐announcement abnormal returns. We further find that long‐term post‐announcement abnormal returns are related to private information differently for firms that actually repurchase shares when compared to firms that announce a repurchase program but do not acquire shares. Our results indicate that managers’ private information is only ambiguously revealed by the repurchase announcement, and that the market waits for the firm's subsequent actions, such as actual repurchase, to further interpret the private information.     

Trend‐Following Trading Strategies in U.S. Stocks: A Revisit

We show that previous findings regarding the profitability of trend‐following trading rules over intermediate horizons in futures markets also extend to individual U.S. stocks. Portfolios formed using technical indicators such as moving average or channel ratios, without employing cross‐sectional rankings of any kind, tend to perform about as well as the more commonly examined momentum strategies. The profitability of these strategies appears significant, both statistically and economically, through 2007, but evidence of profitability vanishes after 2007. Market‐state dependence, while clearly present, does not explain the post‐2007 reduction in returns to these strategies.     

Passive Institutional Ownership,R2 Trends,and Price Informativeness

A distinctive trend in the capital markets over the past two decades is the rise in equity ownership of passive financial institutions. We propose that this rise has a negative effect on price informativeness. By not trading around firm‐specific news, passive investors reduce the firm‐specific component of total volatility and increase stock correlations. Consistent with this hypothesis, we find that the growth in passive institutional ownership is robustly associated with the growth in market model R²s of individual stocks since the early 1990s. Additionally, we find a negative relation between passive ownership and earnings predictability, an informativeness proxy.     

Short‐ and Long‐Term Effects of Multimarket Trading

We analyze short‐ and long‐term effects of multimarket trading by examining the entries of multiple markets into transacting three ETFs, DIA, QQQ, and SPY. We find that large‐scale entries improve overall market quality, while small‐scale entries have ambiguous effects. Our results show that the competition effect dominates the fragmentation effect over a long horizon and that market fragmentation leads to a decline in trading costs. Further, we find that the order handling rules help mitigate the fragmentation effect and facilitate the competition effect. We do not find that multimarket trading harms price efficiency or increases price volatility.     

Imperfect Information and Stock Market Volatility

The purpose of this paper is to (1) develop a model to show how imperfect information can create excess volatility in asset returns and (2) provide empirical evidence consistent with the model. In this framework, variations in information quality cause the market prices to fluctuate more than the corresponding economic fundamentals. Using high‐frequency data from 1988 to 2002, the empirical evidence supports the predictions of the model by showing that economic volatility, defined as squared deviations of the quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate from its long‐run trend, can explain about half of the variation in S&P 500‐stock index quarterly volatility.     

A Generalized Earnings‐Based Stock Valuation Model with Learning

We present a stock valuation model in an incomplete‐information environment in which the unobservable mean of earnings growth rate (MEGR) is learned and price is updated continuously. We calibrate our model to a market portfolio to empirically evaluate its performance. Of the 8.84% total risk premium we estimate, the earnings growth premium is 4.57%, the short‐rate risk contributes 3.38%, and the learning‐induced risk premium on the unknown MEGR is 0.89% (a nontrivial 10% of the total risk premium). This result highlights the significant learning effect on valuation, implying an additional risk premium in an incomplete‐information environment.     

Agency and Institutional Investment

In this paper we summarise and extend the agency‐based model of asset pricing of Brennan (1993) to show that the implied agency effects on asset pricing are too small to be empirically detectable: empirical tests confirm this and we show that the positive findings of Gomez and Zapatero (2003) are due to their choice of sample. We also derive new empirical implications for the composition of institutional investment portfolios and empirically confirm the major result, that institutional portfolios will be short the minimum variance portfolio.     

Caught on tape: Institutional trading,stock returns,and earnings announcements

Many questions about institutional trading can only be answered if one tracks high-frequency changes in institutional ownership. In the United States, however, institutions are only required to report their ownership quarterly in 13-F filings. We infer daily institutional trading behavior from the “tape”, the Transactions and Quotes database of the New York Stock Exchange, using a sophisticated method that best predicts quarterly 13-F data from trades of different sizes. We find that daily institutional trades are highly persistent and respond positively to recent daily returns but negatively to longer-term past daily returns. Institutional trades, particularly sells, appear to generate short-term losses—possibly reflecting institutional demand for liquidity—but longer-term profits. One source of these profits is that institutions anticipate both earnings surprises and post-earnings announcement drift. These results are different from those obtained using a standard size cutoff rule for institutional trades.     

On the Stability of the Cross‐Section of Expected Stock Returns in the Cross‐Section: Understanding the Curious Role of Share Turnover

In this paper, we shed further light on cross‐sectional predictors of stock return performance. Specifically, we explore whether the cross‐section of expected stock returns is robust within stock groups sorted by past monthly return. We find that the book/market and momentum effects are remarkably robust to sorting on past returns. However, share turnover is negatively related to future returns for stocks with abnormally low stock price performance in the recent past, but postively related to returns for well‐performing stocks. This casts doubt on the use of turnover as a liquidity proxy, but is consistent with turnover being a proxy for momentum trading which pushes prices in the direction of past price movements. Our results are robust to both NYSE/AMEX and Nasdaq stocks, and also robust to stratifying the sample by time period.     

The Determinants of Execution Costs in Short‐Term Money Markets

Prior research attributes the observed negative relation between execution costs and trade size in opaque markets to two factors—information asymmetry and broker‐client relationships. We provide evidence that a trader's ex ante transaction price information and the relationship traders have with their brokers are both significant determinants of a trader's execution costs in an opaque market; however, traders who establish strong relationships with their brokers will achieve a greater reduction in execution costs than traders with ex ante transaction price information. We also find evidence that trade size has little explanatory power after controlling for a trader's ex ante transaction price information and broker‐client relationships.     

Does the Precision of News Affect Market Underreaction? Evidence from Returns Following Two Classes of Profit Warnings

We evaluate whether the market reacts rationally to profit warnings by testing for subsequent abnormal returns. Warnings fall into two classes: those that include a new earnings forecast, and those that offer only the guidance that earnings will be below current expectations. We find significant negative abnormal returns in the first three months following both types of warning. There is also evidence that underreaction is more pronounced when the disclosure is less precise. Abnormal returns are significantly more negative following disclosures that offer only qualitative guidance than when a new earnings forecast is included.     

Return decomposition and the Intertemporal CAPM

The Intertemporal CAPM (ICAPM) from Merton (1973) has had a strong impact in empirical asset pricing leading to numerous multifactor models. This paper shows that the explanatory power of the ICAPM application by Campbell and Vuolteenaho (2004) relies critically on the computation of Dimson (1979) covariances (betas). If one employs the standard factor covariances (excluding lagged factors), the two-factor ICAPM has virtually no explanatory power for the average returns of the 25 size/book-to-market portfolios. More specifically, it is the covariance with the lagged innovation in one of the state variables (the value spread) that drives the explanatory power of the model. These results are inconsistent with the central economic intuition from the ICAPM. By specifying a more general version of the ICAPM, the fit of the model improves relative to the Campbell and Vuolteenaho (2004) model.     

Conditional Asset Pricing and Stock Market Anomalies in Europe

This study provides European evidence on the ability of static and dynamic specifications of the Fama‐French (1993) three‐factor model to price 25 size‐B/M portfolios. In contrast to US evidence, we detect a small‐growth premium and find that the size effect is still present in Europe. Furthermore, we document strong time variation in factor risk loadings. Incorporating these risk fluctuations in conditional specifications of the three‐factor model clearly improves its ability to explain time variation in expected returns. However, the model still fails to completely capture cross‐sectional variation in returns as it is unable to explain the momentum effect.     

Dispersion in analysts’ earnings forecasts and credit rating

This paper shows that the puzzling negative cross-sectional relation between dispersion in analysts’ earnings forecasts and future stock returns may be explained by financial distress, as proxied by credit rating downgrades. Focusing on a sample of firms rated by Standard & Poor's (S&P), we show that the profitability of dispersion-based trading strategies concentrates in a small number of the worst-rated firms and is significant only during periods of deteriorating credit conditions. In such periods, the negative dispersion–return relation emerges as low-rated firms experience substantial price drop along with considerable increase in forecast dispersion. Moreover, even for this small universe of worst-rated firms, the dispersion–return relation is non-existent when either the dispersion measure or return is adjusted by credit risk. The results are robust to previously proposed explanations for the dispersion effect such as short-sale constraints and leverage.     

Return Characteristics of State‐Owned and Non‐State‐Owned Chinese A Shares

This study examines and compares stock returns and volatilities between state‐owned (SO) and non‐state‐owned (NSO) firms on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges. Results vary significantly by exchange. Returns for both firm types, on both exchanges, exhibit negative skewness and high kurtosis inconsistent with a normal distribution. Returns display significant autocorrelation, even after the removal of lower‐order effects. Granger causality tests reveal that Shenzhen returns significantly lead Shanghai returns. Within both exchanges, SO firms lead NSO firms. Neither SO nor NSO firm shares are dominated in terms of second‐order stochastic dominance.     

A comprehensive long-term analysis of S&P 500 index additions and deletions

We investigate the long-term effects of S&P 500 index additions and deletions on a sample of stocks from 1962 to 2003 and find a significant long-term price increase for both added and deleted stocks, with deleted stocks outperforming added stocks. The long-term price increase for added stocks can be attributed to increases in institutional ownership, liquidity, and analyst coverage, and a decrease in the shadow cost in the long-term. However, while deletion has no significant effect on analyst coverage and shadow cost, we find a rebound in the institutional ownership and liquidity of deleted stocks. The difference in the long-term price increase of added and deleted stocks can be explained by analyst coverage and operating performance.