从行为金融学视角出发的投资心理考量

行为金融学的应用价值,在于把心理学和金融学问题结合起来,实现对人的行为的预测和改造,解决诸多用标准金融理论难以解决的投资决策问题.研究行为金融学可以发现投资者对新信息的过度反应或者反应不足的情况,从而找出适当的投资策略.行为金融学它不仅是对传统金融学理论的革命,也是对传统投资决策范式的修正.     

Toward a Positive Theory of Corporate Financial Policy

This paper offers an alternative theoretical structure to the neoclassical valuation model that has been the cornerstone of theories of finance for a quarter of a century. It begins by outlining the neoclassical model in simple but surprisingly robust terms. More recent extensions and refinements are then discussed. The alternative model, which does not rely on modern financial economic theory but which is consistent with real world empirical behaviour, is developed next. Finally, a new research agenda for finance is proposed.     

Neoclassical finance,behavioral finance and noise traders: A review and assessment of the literature

While mainstream neoclassical finance ignores the role played by noise traders, a significant amount of empirical evidence is available to show that noise traders are active market participants and that their participation gives rise to market anomalies. Unlike neoclassical finance, behavioral finance allows for market inefficiency on the grounds that market participants are subject to common human errors that arise from heuristics and biases. In this paper we review the literature on the behavior of noise traders and analyze the consequences of their presence in the market, starting with a distinction between neoclassical finance and behavioral finance. We identify the market anomalies that provide evidence for the tendency of markets to trade at irrational levels, demonstrate how noise trading is related to some market fundamentals, and describe the models used to quantify noise trader risk.     

金融发展推动产业供给侧结构性改革的路径选择

基于新古典经济增长理论,提出金融发展推动我国产业供给侧结构性改革的理论路径.利用我国2008-2015年省级面板数据,通过构建双向固定效应模型对相关路径进行探究和论证,结果表明:金融规模推动产业层次提升的资本驱动路径的有效性边际递减,金融结构引导产业科技水平提高的创新引领路径的有效性并不显著,金融效率促进产业高效化发展的管理优化路径的有效性逐渐提升.     

The genesis of the 2008 global financial crisis and challenges to the neoclassical paradigm of finance

In the first step, this paper briefly discusses the macroeconomic background of the 2008 financial crisis. Next, we take a wider approach and we look at systemic changes that global economics, and financial markets in particular, had undergone. We wonder if these transformations, and their effects so dramatically demonstrated in 2008, give grounds to modify the theoretical background of finance. The neoclassical paradigm might be seen as an idealized normative benchmark. On the other hand, behavioral approach helps explain deviations from this benchmark, however itself it lacks the normative character. We conclude that in contemporary circumstances an interdisciplinary approach is needed in the search for an adequate theory, as the financial world is getting more and more complex and dynamic.     

金融支持与区域经济增长集聚与差异--基于空间计量模型的实证分析

本文采用空间计量方法,基于新增长理论,从金融发展的3个层面--金融规模、金融结构、金融效率来考察2003-2010年金融业在区域经济增长集聚与差异中的支持作用,结果发现：我国区域经济增长呈现明显的空间集聚特征,在集聚与差异的形成过程中,金融支持表现出显著的空间相关性,其中金融规模、金融结构和金融效率的贡献又存在差异。基于此结论,本文提出了相应的政策建议。     

金融功能、金融发展与中国金融体制改革

金融功能是金融与经济关系的实质、核心与基础。金融功能性资源比其他层次的金融资源更难得,从而更稀缺。金融功能层次的复杂化与提升,功能层次与种类的扩展与强化过程即是金融功能的演进,金融功能的演进即是金融发展。在此基础上以金融发展的金融功能观视角来进行中国金融发展状况的功能判断,提出中国金融体制改革的若干思考。     

我国互联网金融风险监管研究--基于制度因素和非制度因素的视角

伴随着互联网金融的快速发展和互联网金融风险的大量暴露,研究并实施互联网金融风险监管刻不容缓。通过分析互联网金融的概念、特征和业态模式,探究互联网金融风险的概念、判断和主要类型,研究互联网金融风险的诱发成因,借鉴国外互联网金融风险监管的经验,给出了我国互联网金融风险监管的监管主体、监管目标和监管思路,并提出了相关政策建议。     

后改革时期中国农村金融体系发展的战略定位

中国后改革时期农业经济发展的不平衡,即二元经济结构的存在,决定了区域金融市场的二元化。从后改革时期农村金融发展的现实来看,中国农村金融体系已无法满足不同地区不同收入的农户多元化、多层次的金融需求。后改革时期农村金融体系的定位,其核心不是农村金融机构设置的多元化,而是适应不同收入阶层的农户在不同经济发展阶段上的金融需求,建立“城乡协调、统筹兼顾、资金回流、扶助三农”的农村金融体系,最终实现农村金融的全面、协调、可持续发展。     

个人投资者的行为金融学分析

行为金融是当前金融经济学的研究热点。它注重研究投资者的实际决策行为，解释金融市场上的各种现象。个人投资者行为分析是行为金融研究的重要组成部分。行为金融较为成功地解释了个人投资者的判断与决策、投资组合、策略与交易以及退休储蓄等方面的行为。     

绿色金融、绿色创新与经济高质量发展

在可持续增长理论的基础上,本文将减排技术内生化,建立带有环境约束并包含金融部门的经济增长模型,解释了绿色金融通过支持绿色创新提升经济增长质量的内在机制。这一理论得到了基于中国省级面板数据中介效应分析的支持。本文为绿色金融的经济学建模提供了新的思路,推进了绿色金融的“功能”理论,论证了绿色金融对经济增长质量影响的“绿色创新渠道”,这意味着绿色金融不限于对少数清洁行业的支持,针对高污染、高能耗行业内部环保技术升级的金融服务也至关重要,是未来绿色金融政策需要关注的问题。     

数字普惠金融减缓相对贫困的效率研究

数字普惠金融是传统普惠金融的持续深化,是减缓相对贫困的重要支撑力量。本文采用DEA-Tobit模型,利用2011—2018年我国31个省市数字普惠金融和相对贫困等数据,测算了数字普惠金融减缓相对贫困的效率与影响因素。研究结果表明:我国数字普惠金融减缓相对贫困的效率偏低且区域差异大,其中规模效率是西部地区综合效率较低的最主要原因,数字普惠金融减缓相对贫困存在较大的发展潜力;数字普惠金融减贫生产率指数变动主要受技术进步变动影响。在影响因素方面,金融中介效率、产业结构与财政自给率的提高与优化有利于提高数字普惠金融减贫效率;而金融发展规模的扩大会阻碍数字普惠金融减贫效率的提高。     

Social and solidarity finance: A conceptual approach

An analysis of the social- and solidarity-finance system of relationships, which has characteristics that differ from those of other financial intermediaries, underpins the conceptual approach of this article. Social and solidarity finance constitutes a set of interdependent financial and social relationships, and partnerships between individuals and organisations, that mesh into an organised whole.This article makes use of institutional economics to understand those mechanisms of interaction between individuals, organisations and institutions that are not strictly economic. First, we offer a new conceptual framework on social and solidarity finance from an institutional point of view. Then, based on this framework, we outline the sustainability of alternative finance and its ability to respond to specific entrepreneurship needs. Finally, we present the French situation regarding social and solidarity finance to highlight the main characteristics of alternative finance.     

普惠金融、金融深化与金融稳定--基于ARDL-ECM模型估计

本文利用中国1988~2016年宏观经济数据、金融数据,分别构建金融压力指数与普惠金融发展指数来反映我国的金融稳定状况和普惠金融发展状况,并利用ARDL-ECM模型来分析金融压力指数、普惠金融发展水平、金融深化水平之间的关系。实证结果表明我国普惠金融的发展虽然短期会加大系统性金融风险,但是长期来看是有利于金融稳定的。并且对于我国来说金融深化短期内有利于缓解系统性金融风险,但是长期不利于金融稳定。同时,长期内金融深化可以加大普惠金融对金融稳定的有利影响,但是短期却会加大普惠金融不利于金融稳定的作用。     

新制度经济学视角：农业银行三农金融事业部制改革成效分析

农村金融供给不足的问题由来已久,农村信用社由于缺少有力竞争开始出现垄断迹象。始于2008年的农业银行三农金融事业部制改革逐渐展开并取得一定成效。本文拟从新制度经济学的视角,对山东省济南市农业银行三农金融事业部改革这一事件的过程和效果进行分析,以期寻找到大型银行支持三农发展的有效途径。     

现代金融分析：范围、路线和范式转换

文章讨论了现代金融分析领域所涉及的基本问题和研究范围，识别金融分析同货币分析的区别和联系，现代金融分析发展的思想起源以及随着这种思想路线的发展而形成新古典主义金融分析。并对现代金融学的理论框架进行评估，分析了行为金融学兴起的价值理论基础。其目的是对“现代金融学”教学和研究的理论框架、历史演变，以及变革发展的趋势作一个概括，从而为我国21世纪的条件下的金融学理论体系重建提供一个历史的参照。     

Investment decisions with financial constraints. Evidence from Spanish firms

This paper analyses to what extent the rejection of the investment dynamics implied by the Euler equation model with quadratic and symmetric adjustment costs can be attributed to the fact that the investment behavior of some firms in some periods is financially constrained by the availability of internal funds. I use a hierarchy of finance model which assumes that internally generated finance for investment is available at a lower cost than external finance, and implies the existence of distinct financial regimes depending on the firm’s financial policy. I estimate the empirical investment equation derived from the model using GMM, taking into account the endogeneity of the selection and allowing for debt finance, imperfect competition and the existence of a possible measurement error in the user cost of capital. The empirical results suggest that the Euler equation model is not seriously misspecified for a sub-sample of firms pursuing a particular financial policy.     

Building a Bridge between Marketing and Finance

Corporate finance executives are often frustrated by spending proposals from their marketing colleagues but cannot seem to be able to quantify the putative benefits. Similarly, the marketing staff is frustrated by the finance team's inability to convert soft marketing metrics, such as “awareness” and “customer satisfaction” into financial forecasts. The challenge is that neither marketers nor finance executives have been able to articulate a single analytical framework which both explains how and why brands come to flourish or flounder and how brand growth contributes to the business's short and long term bottom line. Lacking an effective way to do this now, most managers default to using the hard data they do have, namely how marketing investment is likely to impact sales this quarter and next. This reinforces the widespread focus on quarterly EPS and reduces the perceived value of the marketing department to their ability to hit three month sales targets. This degraded view of marketing's contribution and the inability to link “soft” marketing metrics to longer term financial returns impedes building long‐term brand value. This article focuses on how advances in behavioral science and financial analytics offer an effective way to bridge this gap between marketing and finance. Building that bridge requires better measures of brand health and financial performance to allocate capital and marketing resources. Undoubtedly, brand building is both an art and a science. But, the finance people can develop an evidence‐based framework explaining how some of the “softer” investments such as brand building, contribute to the value of the firm.     

Predicting macro-financial instability – How relevant is sentiment? Evidence from long short-term memory networks

This paper examines the relevance of sentiment in predicting overall financial system instability using long-run short-term memory networks. Weekly data on the US financial system, consumer sentiment, producer sentiment, and investor sentiment is collected from 21 January 1994 to 27 December 2019, and different models are developed to predict the one-week-ahead levels of financial stress in the US financial system. We find that models using sentiment indices outperform those relying solely on historical financial stress and risk data. This result is robust to comparisons with an alternative deep learning method and out-of-sample predictions. It constitutes an argument in favor of behavioral finance and Minsky’s (Knell, 2015) financial instability hypothesis against the Efficient Market Hypothesis. As it concretely identifies the main indicators for predicting US financial stress one week in advance, the study provides relevant recommendations for policymakers and investors in terms of macroprudential policies and portfolio management.     

The Global Financial Crisis and the Efficient Market Hypothesis: What Have We Learned?

The sharp economic downturn and turmoil in the financial markets, commonly referred to as the “global financial crisis,” has spawned an impressive outpouring of blame. The efficient market hypothesis (EMH)—the idea that competitive financial markets exploit all available information when setting security prices—has been singled out for particular attention. Like all successful theories, the EMH has major limitations, even as it continues to provide the foundation for not only past accomplishment, but future advances in the field of finance. Despite the theory's undoubted limitations, the claim that it is responsible for the current worldwide crisis seems wildly exaggerated. This essay shows the misreading of the theory and logical inconsistencies involved in popular arguments that EMH played a significant role in (1) the formation of the real estate and stock market bubbles, (2) investment practitioners' miscalculation of risks, and (3) the failure of regulators to recognize the bubbles and avert the crisis. At the same time, the author argues that the collapse of Lehman Brothers and other large financial institutions, far from resulting from excessive faith in efficient markets, reflects a failure to heed the lessons of efficient markets. In the author's words, “To me, Lehman's demise conclusively demonstrates that, in a competitive capital market, if you take massive risky positions financed with extraordinary leverage, you are bound to lose big one day—no matter how large and venerable you are.” Finally, behavioral finance, widely considered as challenging and even supplanting efficient markets theory, is viewed in this article as complementing if not reinforcing efficient markets theory. As the author says, “it takes a theory to beat a theory.” Behavioralism, for all its important contributions to finance literature, is described as not a theory but rather “a collection of ideas and results”— one that depends for its existence on the theory of efficient markets.