Diversification,Integration and Emerging Market Closed-End Funds

We study a new class of unconditional and conditional mean-variance spanning tests that exploits the duality between Hansen-Jagannathan bounds (1991) and mean-standard deviation frontiers. The tests are shown to be equivalent to standard spanning tests in population, but we document substantial differences in the small sample performance of alternative tests. Our empirical application examines the diversification benefits from emerging equity markets using an extensive new data set on U.S. and U.K.-traded closed-end funds. We find significant diversification benefits for the U.K. country funds, but not for the U.S. funds. The difference appears to relate to differences in portfolio holdings rather than to the behavior of premiums in the United States versus the United Kingdom.     

International day-of-the-week effects: An empirical examination of iShares

Ample evidence suggests that day-of-the-week patterns exist in US and foreign equity returns. We extend the evidence on the day-of-the-week effect in equity returns by examining the return patterns of iShares for 17 countries and Standard and Poor's Depository Receipts (SPDRs) to establish whether previously observed predictabilities in equity returns are reflected in iShares' returns. We utilize a split sample to examine return patterns and develop trading rules using the initial subsample. We then test those trading rules out of sample. Empirical results reveal that iShares exhibit day-of-the-week return patterns that can be exploited by informed traders.     

Investor Reaction to Salient News in Closed-End Country Funds

We use panel data on prices and net asset values to test whether dramatic country-specific news affects the response of closed-end country fund prices to asset value. In a typical week, prices underreact to changes in fundamentals; the (short-run) elasticity of price with respect to asset value is significantly less than one. In weeks with news appearing on the front page of The New York Times , prices react much more; the elasticity of price with respect to asset value is closer to one. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that news events lead some investors to react more quickly.     

Common Volatility: An Empirical Investigation of Closed-End Country Funds

The study of international integration of equity markets has received a great deal of interest. This paper investigates whether returns of forty-one closed-end country funds share a common volatility process with three comparable return series: the underlying net asset value (NAV), U.S. stock market returns, and foreign stock market returns. Country funds are a natural setting to test for international market integration, as they are traded in the U.S. market, whereas their underlying assets are traded in foreign stock markets. Our results indicate that only a few emerging markets' country funds share common volatility processes with their comparable asset returns. This, in turn, suggests weak linkages through the second moment of related assets.     

Around-the-Clock Performance of Closed-End Funds

Herein, we find that the market price of closed-end fund shares tends to increase (decrease) in anticipation of a rise (fall) in the net asset value (NAV). Similarly, an increase (decrease) in the reported NAV tends to be followed by a rise (fall) in the price of the fund's shares. Interestingly, we also find a powerful negative autocorrelation between closed-end fund shares’ overnight and intraday returns in both univariate and multivariate tests for both the overall sample and a number of subsamples. We believe that this tendency results from the strategies that many specialists employ when they open their assigned shares.     

A Liquidity-Based Theory of Closed-End Funds

This paper develops a rational, liquidity-based model of closed-endfunds (CEFs) that provides an economic motivation for the existenceof this organizational form: They offer a means for investorsto buy illiquid securities, without facing the potential costsassociated with direct trading and without the externalitiesimposed by an open-end fund structure. Our theory predicts thepatterns observed in CEF initial public offerings (IPOs) andthe observed behavior of the CEF discount, which results froma trade-off between the liquidity benefits of investing in theCEF and the fees charged by the fund's managers. In particular,the model explains why IPOs occur in waves in certain sectorsat a time, why funds are issued at a premium to net asset value(NAV), and why they later usually trade at a discount. We alsoconduct an empirical investigation, which, overall, providesmore support for a liquidity-based model than for an alternativesentiment-based explanation.     

The effect of downside risk reduction on UK equity portfolios included with Managed Futures Funds

The concept of asymmetric risk estimation has become more widely applied in risk management in recent years with the increased use of Value-at-risk (VaR) methodologies. This paper uses the n-degree lower partial moment (LPM) models, of which VaR is a special case, to empirically analyse the effect of downside risk reduction on UK portfolio diversification and returns. Data on Managed Futures Funds are used to replicate the increasingly popular preference of investors for including hedge funds and fund-of-funds type investments in the UK equity portfolios. The result indicates, however that the potential benefits of fund diversification may deteriorate following reductions in downside risk tolerance levels. These results appear to reinforce the importance of risk (tolerance) perception, particularly downside risk, when making decisions to include Managed Futures Funds in UK equity portfolios as the empirical analysis suggests that this could negatively affect portfolio returns.     

Risk Exposures and International Diversification: Evidence from iShares

Abstract:   We examine the newly developed international diversification instruments–iShares traded on the American Stock Exchange. Given the fact that iShares can be created and redeemed at will, the daily price of an iShare is expected to be equal to the daily portfolio value of the underlying assets in the home‐country market. Therefore, theoretically, iShare pricing should be influenced by the risk from the iShare's home‐country market and not the risk from the US market, per se . We evaluate the risk exposure of iShare prices to the US market (non‐fundamental effect) as well as the home‐country market (the fundamental effect). We find that most iShare returns are significantly influenced by and sensitive to the US market risk. Moreover, the US market appears to be the key permanent driving factor and the home‐country market is a pronounced transitory driving force for iShare prices. These findings indicate the presence of limits of international arbitrage for iShares. As a result, the international diversification benefits of iShares become questionable.     

Canadian Investors and the Discount on Closed-End Funds

We explore the role of the discount on closed-end funds (CEFD) in asset pricing and test its validity as a proxy for investor sentiment in the Canadian stock market. Results show that CEFD is not a priced factor. Both cross-sectional and time-series tests confirm that stocks with different exposures to CEFD do not have significantly different average returns. CEFD does not even provide incremental explanatory power after controlling for firm characteristics and risk factors. Furthermore, CEFD fails to be a proxy for investor sentiment with no correlation to either the consumer confidence index or flows to open-ended funds.     

Corporate Spin-Offs and Closed-End Funds in a State-Preference Framework

Miller's clientele argument for market value subadditivity as an explanation for stockholder wealth gains in corporate spin-offs and discounts from the net asset value of closed-end fund shares is examined in the context of a simple state-preference model. It is shown that binding short sales constraints induce value subadditivity and thus render Miller's clientele argument valid. This is true regardless of whether or not divergence of opinion among investors or state-dependent utility functions exist. In the absence of binding short sales constraints, value additivity prevails and Miller's clientele argument is not viable. Although personal taxes are not considered in the model developed in this paper, it is shown that tax-timing options reinforce the existence of value subadditivity.     

Diversification and Value-at-Risk

A pervasive and puzzling feature of banks’ Value-at-Risk (VaR) is its abnormally high level, which leads to excessive regulatory capital. A possible explanation for the tendency of commercial banks to overstate their VaR is that they incompletely account for the diversification effect among broad risk categories (e.g., equity, interest rate, commodity, credit spread, and foreign exchange). By underestimating the diversification effect, bank’s proprietary VaR models produce overly prudent market risk assessments. In this paper, we examine empirically the validity of this hypothesis using actual VaR data from major US commercial banks. In contrast to the VaR diversification hypothesis, we find that US banks show no sign of systematic underestimation of the diversification effect. In particular, diversification effects used by banks is very close to (and quite often larger than) our empirical diversification estimates. A direct implication of this finding is that individual VaRs for each broad risk category, just like aggregate VaRs, are biased risk assessments.     

International Investment Restrictions and Closed-End Country Fund Prices

Some closed-end country funds trade at large premiums relative to their net asset values. This paper examines whether international investment restrictions raise country fund price-net asset value ratios by segmenting international capital markets. We test whether a relation exists between announcements of changes in investment restrictions and changes in these ratios using weekly data from May 1981 to January 1989. The results provide evidence that some foreign markets are at least partially segmented from the U.S. capital market.     

Diversification and heterogeneity of investor beliefs

In the paper, we find that diversification reduces the heterogeneity of investor beliefs on firm value. We obtain this finding by comparing not only between diversified and focused firms but also between diversifying and non-diversifying mergers. We also find that the reduced heterogeneity of investor beliefs on a diversified firm relative to its focused peers is negatively associated with its contemporaneous excess value and positively associated with its future excess value. Overall, our results contribute to the understanding about how corporate organization structure affects the heterogeneity of investor beliefs and further firm value.     

Diversification and ownership concentration

If controlling shareholders can divert profits, equity ownership is more concentrated the higher the stock returns correlation. A higher returns correlation reduces the benefits of diversification, giving rise to both a higher investment by the controlling shareholder in the asset that he controls and a lower investment by the non-controlling shareholders. The empirical analysis supports the predictions of the model: equity ownership is more concentrated in countries where the stock returns correlation is higher; moreover the intensity of the relationship between the stock returns correlation and ownership concentration is amplified by poor investor protection.     

Diversification and cash dynamics

Why do diversified firms hold significantly less cash than focused firms? We study this question using a dynamic model of corporate investment, saving, and diversification decisions. We find that investment dynamics are more important in explaining the cash differences than financing frictions. More efficient internal capital markets increase cash differences and are especially valuable when a firm diversifies or refocuses. Contrary to static models, more diverse conglomerates have lower cash differences. Endogenous selection (diversifying firms are larger and have better growth opportunities) accounts for 68% of the cash difference, and the diversification event itself reduces cash holdings by 32%.     

Tax-Loss Selling and the January Effect: Evidence from Municipal Bond Closed-End Funds

This paper provides direct evidence supporting the tax‐loss selling hypothesis as an explanation of the January effect. Examining turn‐of‐the‐year return and volume patterns for municipal bond closed‐end funds, which are held mostly by tax‐sensitive individual investors, we document a January effect for these funds, but not for their underlying assets. We provide evidence that this effect can be largely explained by tax‐loss selling activities at the previous year‐end. Moreover, we find that funds associated with brokerage firms display more tax‐loss selling behavior, suggesting that tax counseling plays a role.