THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE BLACK MARKET AND OFFICIAL EXCHANGE RATES: AN EXAMINATION OF LONG-RUN DYNAMICS IN INDIA

This study is the first to use Johansen's cointegration approach for India in the analysis of the long‐term dynamics between the black and official exchange rates for the period 1953–1993. The study also estimates the long‐run elasticity of the official rate with respect to the black market rate. As monthly data over 40 years are used, and a more robust methodology is employed, the results are likely to be more reliable as compared with the earlier work on India. The results of our study suggest that while there is a long‐term relationship between the two rates, the direction of causality is from the black rate to the official exchange rate. This is plausible in the Indian context where policy has generally lagged behind events in the black market. The hypothesis of a constant black market premium is rejected, implying that there is a mismatch between the percentage change in the official exchange rate and the percentage change in the black market rate.     

LATIN AMERICAN EXCHANGE RATE DEPENDENCIES: A REGULAR VINE COPULA APPROACH

This study implements a regular vine copula methodology to evaluate the level of contagion among the exchange rates of six Latin American countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru) from June 2005 to April 2012. We measure contagion in terms of tail dependence coefficients, following Fratzscher's (1999) definition of contagion as interdependence. Our results indicate that these countries are divided into two blocks. The first block consists of Brazil, Colombia, Chile, and Mexico, whose exchange rates exhibit the largest dependence coefficients, and the second block consists of Argentina and Peru, whose exchange rate dependence coefficients with other Latin American countries are low. We also found that most of the Latin American exchange rate pairs exhibit asymmetric behaviors characterized by nonsignificant upper tail dependence and significant lower tail dependence. These results imply that there exists contagion in Latin American exchange rates in periods of large appreciations, whereas there is no evidence of contagion during periods of currency depreciation. This empirical regularity may reflect the “fear of appreciation” in emerging economies identified by Levy‐Yeyati, Sturzenegger, and Gluzmann (2013). (JEL C32, C51, E42)     

Testing the theory of PPP for emerging market economies that practice flexible exchange rate regimes

This study aims to test the long-run validity of purchasing power parity by using Fourier quantile unit root and Fourier cointegration analyses for 12 emerging market economies that practice a flexible exchange rate regime. With the Fourier approach, structural breaks are modelled as a gradual and smooth process. Fourier quantile unit root test results show that real exchange rate series are stationary for Colombia, India, Philippines, Poland, South Africa, and Turkey. On the other hand, Fourier cointegration test results reveal that purchasing power parity is valid for Brazil, Colombia, India, Mexico, South Africa, Thailand, and Turkey.     

Does black market exchange rate volatility deter the trade flows? Iranian experience

Previous studies that investigated the impact of exchange rate volatility on the trade flows, employed official exchange rate data to construct a measure of exchange rate uncertainty. In this paper we show that in countries that there is a black market for foreign exchange, the black market exchange rate volatility could have adverse effect on the trade flows. We show this by using data from Iran and cointegration analysis.     

What do Latin American inflation targeters care about? A comparative Bayesian estimation of central bank preferences

This paper employs Bayesian estimation to uncover the central bank preferences of the five Latin American inflation targeting countries with floating exchange rates: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru. The target weights of each country’s central bank loss function are estimated using a medium-scale small open economy New Keynesian model with imperfect exchange-rate pass-through under either complete or incomplete international asset markets. Bayesian model comparison selects: (i) unambiguously the complete markets model version; (ii) the model specification with explicit concern for real exchange rate stabilization, with the exception of Peru. Our results suggest that the central banks of Mexico and Peru are closest to following a strict inflation targeting regime, whereas Brazil, Chile, and Colombia also assign a sizeable weight to output gap and real exchange rate stabilization. Finally, the estimated preference weights for each central bank are shown to credibly reflect their legal mandates.     

Informal self-employment and macroeconomic fluctuations

Informal self-employment is a major source of employment in developing countries. Its cyclical behavior is important to our understanding of the functioning of LDC labor markets, but turns out to be surprisingly complex. We develop a flexible model with two sectors: a formal salaried (tradable) sector that may be affected by wage rigidities, and an informal (non tradable) self-employment sector faced with liquidity constraints to entry. This labor market is then embedded in a standard small economy macro model. We show that different types of shocks interact with different institutional contexts to produce distinct patterns of comovement between key variables of the model: relative salaried/self-employed incomes, relative salaried/self-employed sector sizes and the real exchange rate. Model predictions are then tested empirically for Argentina, Brazil, Colombia and Mexico. We confirm episodes where the expansion of informal self-employment is consistent with the traditional segmentation views of informality. However, we also identify episodes where informal self-employment behaves “pro-cyclically”; here, informality is driven by relative demand or productivity shocks to the non tradable sector.     

Economic impact of expanded use of biologic therapy for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis and Crohn’s disease in Argentina,Brazil, Colombia,and Mexico

Objectives: To estimate economic impact resulting from increased biologics use for treatment of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and Crohn’s disease (CD) in Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico.

Methods: The influence of increasing biologics use for treatment of RA during 2012–2022 and for treatment of CD during 2013–2023 was modeled from a societal perspective. The economic model incorporated current and projected medical, indirect, and drug costs and epidemiologic and economic factors. Costs associated with expanded biologics use for RA were compared with non-expanded use in Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico. A similar analysis was conducted for CD in Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico.

Results: Accounting for additional costs of biologics and medical and indirect cost offsets, the model predicts that expanded use of biologics for patients with RA from 2012 to 2022 will result in cumulative net cost savings of ARS$2.351 billion in Argentina, R$9.004 billion in Brazil, COP$728.577 billion in Colombia, and MXN$18.02 billion in Mexico; expanded use of biologics for patients with CD from 2013 to 2023 will result in cumulative net cost savings for patients with CD of R$0.082 billion in Brazil, COP$502.74 billion in Colombia, and MXN$1.80 billion in Mexico. Indirect cost offsets associated with expanded biologics use were a key driver in reducing annual per-patient net costs for RA and CD.

Limitations: Future economic projections are limited by the potential variance between projected and actual future values of biologic prices, wages, medical costs, and gross national product for each country.

Conclusions: Increasing biologics use to treat RA and CD may limit cost growth over time by reducing medical and indirect costs. These findings may inform policy decisions regarding biologics use in Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico.     

Modelling real exchange rate effects on output performance in Latin America

This article empirically analyses real per capita GDP growth for six Latin American countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Columbia, Mexico, Venezuela) in terms of real exchange rate depreciations, inflation and US interest rates, focussing on the role of the real exchange rate. We find evidence of nonlinearity in this relationship, which we capture through a smooth transition regression model. With the exception of Mexico, nonlinearity in economic growth is associated with changes in the real exchange rate, with depreciations leading to different relationships compared with appreciations. Regimes for Mexico are associated with the past growth rates, with effectively symmetric effects of real exchange rate changes. Although our results are in accord with other recent literature in that depreciations may have negative effects for growth, the asymmetries we uncover indicate that these effects depend on the conditioning state.     

Currency diversification and export competitiveness: A model of the ‘Dutch disease’ in Egypt

The paper presents a dynamic portfolio model under currency inconvertibility which rationalizes the recent Egyptian experience of real exchange rate appreciation and currency diversification following the increase in oil exports and the partial financial liberalization that took place after 1976. The two shocks are linked because the relative price of manufacturing exports in terms of oil is also the premium of the ‘gray’ market rate over the official exchange rate. The effects of various official exchange rate policies on the temporary equilibrium values of the premium and the real wage and on the steady-state values of asset stocks are examined. A review of the Egyptian experience in light of the model results suggests that the unification of 1979 was ineffective against this variant of the ‘Dutch disease’ but that the restoration in 1981 of a parallel rate closer to the ‘gray’ market rate applicable to competitive exports may be more effective.     

The real exchange rate and the black market exchange rate in developing countries

This article tests for the validity of the Purchasing power parity (PPP) theory using both the black market and the official exchange rates for panels with cross sectional dependency. The test is conducted using a newly developed, nonlinear IV panel unit root test that properly handles cross-sectional dependency for thirty-seven developing countries. We find that the null of joint unit root hypothesis is rejected for the whole panel, using the black market exchange rate, and for sub-panels of African and high inflation countries, using either exchange rate. The black market-based real exchange rates are, therefore, shown to provide stronger evidence for the purchasing power parity theory than do the official rates. This finding is consistent with the observation that black market exchange rates better represent market forces and thus are more relevant when testing for the validity of the PPP theory in developing countries.     

Black Market and Official Exchange Rates: Long-run Equilibrium and Short-run Dynamics

This paper presents further empirical evidence on the relationship between black market and official exchange rates in six emerging economies (Iran, India, Indonesia, Korea, Pakistan, and Thailand). First, it applies both time series techniques and heterogeneous panel methods to test for the existence of a long-run relationship between these two types of exchange rates. Second, it tests formally the validity of the proportionality restriction implying a constant black-market premium. Third, it also analyses the short-run dynamic responses of both markets to shocks. Finally, it tries to shed some light on the determinants of the market premium. Evidence of slow reversion to the long-run equilibrium is found. Further, it appears that capital controls and expected currency devaluation are the two main factors affecting the size of the premium and determining the breakdown in the proportionality relationship.     

Military spending and the black market premium in developing countries

Researchers who have been concerned with the economic implications of military spending have mostly concentrated on its impact on economic growth, corruption, real exchange rate and inflation. In this paper we investigate the impact of military spending on black market premium, an area that has not been tackled so far. After adding a measure of military spending to a well established model of black market premium form the literature, we estimate the model by pooling annual data over the 1985 – 1998 period across 61 developing countries. Results from five panel specifications provide considerable evidence that higher military spending leads to higher black market premium.     

The black market exchange rate and demand for money in sixteen developing countries

Using data for a sample of 16 diverse countries, this study tests the hypothesis that it is the black market exchange rate, not the official rate, that should enter into the demand for money function of countries where there is a black market for foreign currencies. Using several cointegration methods and Hausman tests, it is shown that this hypothesis is strongly supported for most of the countries studied.     

Foreign Exchange Controls and the Parallel Market Premium

This paper studies the relationship between the official and parallel exchange rates, using cointegration, Granger causality, and reduced form methods on data from three Caribbean countries, Jamaica, Guyana, and Trinidad & Tobago, for the period 1985–93. Where the central bank follows a passive policy of infrequent and large adjustments to the official rate, changes in the official rate Granger causes changes in the parallel rate, and larger disparities prevail between the two rates. Foreign exchange controls, expansionary fiscal and monetary policy, and changes of government mostly have a positive effect on the parallel market premium, with foreign exchange controls exerting the strongest impact.     

How can a strong currency or drop in oil prices raise inflation and the black-market premium?

Based on the case of Venezuela, an oil exporter with a multiple exchange rate regime, this paper explains two counterintuitive phenomena. First, a fall in oil revenue can drive a steep rise in inflation by reducing foreign exchange for imports and raising the fiscal deficit financed by money growth. Second, when foreign exchange is rationed, a devaluation of the official exchange rate could produce a transitory fall in inflation by reducing the fiscal deficit and subsidies for buying foreign exchange. The paper also shows that the black market exchange rate can be rising far faster than overall inflation if it is driven by prices in the most distorted goods markets. The channels emphasized in this paper for determining inflation and the black market exchange rate are novel in the literature and may provide avenues of future research on commodity exporters and foreign exchange constraints.     

On the Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Constraints to the Real Side of the Economy

Contrary to the predictions of the theory underlying international finance, inflows of capital triggered by financial liberalisation have neither equalised real interest rates nor increased income growth in many emerging economies. We explain this puzzle by developing a model that combines the balance‐of‐payments constraint approach to economic growth with a less stringent version of the real interest rate parity hypothesis. The model’s foundations are based on robust empirical findings or well‐established macroeconomic models. We show that a perverse combination of income elasticities of demand for imports and exports generates slow income growth and high real interest rates. As domestic income grows and imports rise faster than exports, the real exchange rate is expected to depreciate in order to clear the balance of payments (or the foreign exchange rate market). An incipient capital outflow arises and interest rates increase. Faster adjustment in capital rather than in the goods market therefore generates a higher real interest rate differential between the domestic small open‐economy and the rest of the world. The long run analysis shows that a constant degree of risk aversion implies a positive equilibrium real interest rate differential that affects economic growth. A permanent increase in default risk driven by persistent current account imbalances thus impacts on long run growth. The model’s results are illustrated with evidence from the three major Latin America economies: Argentina, Brazil and Mexico.     

Do Crises Induce Reform? Simple Empirical Tests of Conventional Wisdom

We find evidence for the crisis-induces-reform hypothesis at extreme values of the inflation rate and the black market premium. Episodes of extremely high inflation or black market premiums are followed by periods of better performance than episodes of moderately high inflation or black market premiums. We fail to find similar evidence of the crisis hypothesis when crisis is measured as a high current account deficit, a high budget deficit, or a negative per capita growth rate. The pattern of foreign aid disbursements may help explain the results. Foreign aid is reduced at extreme values of inflation or the black market premium, while it is actually increased for more extreme values of the current account deficit and the budget deficit.     

Shortage and currency substitution in transition economies: Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, and Romania

This paper examines currency substitution in Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, and Romania during the end of central planning and transition to market economies. Before liberalization, central European economies faced increasing shortage and repressed inflation in the official sector. Households held substantial wealth in real assets and foreign currency. Furthermore, part of their savings was held as hunting money against potential opportunities to buy in bulk at bargain prices in official stores or pay a premium price on the black market. The shift from centrally-planned to market economies is modeled with a shortage variable. Foreign currency demand and consumption functions are estimated by the Johansen procedure. Environmental constraints play a key role in interpreting estimates. The official sector shortage is an important determinant of foreign currency demand in each country.