Risk and Return within the Single-Family Housing Market

The trade-off between risk and return in equity markets is well established. This paper examines the existence of the same trade-off in the single-family housing market. That market is dominated by homeowners, who constitute about two-thirds of U.S. households. For them the choice about how much housing and what house to buy is a joint consumption-investment decision. Furthermore, owner-occupied housing is by nature a lumpy investment whose risk cannot be completely diversified. Does this consumption-investment link negate the risk-return trade-off within the single-family housing market? Theory suggests the link still holds. This paper supplies empirical evidence in support of that theoretical result.     

A Cash Flow Model of Rational Housing Tenure Choice*

This paper develops a model of housing costs in a cash flow framework. The cash flow approach allows both the consumption and investment aspects of tenure choice to be analyzed. By solving the model for the rental flow equivalent to any owning situation, we can determine whether or not a household would buy or rent from an economic perspective. The results are very sensitive to the household's income, the expected duration of occupancy, the mortgage interest rate, and inflation expectations. The results suggest that “rule-of-thumb” generalizations about tenure choice are often ill-founded, and that studies of tenure choice need to explicitly consider the interaction of income, taxes, length of occupancy and expectations.     

Housing Tenure Choice in Australia and the United States: Impacts of Alternative Subsidy Policies

This article compares the homeownership rates of young households in Australia and the United States and evaluates the impacts of the two countries' different approaches to subsidizing homeownership. Since about 1950, Australia's rate of homeownership has consistently been higher than that of the United States. The homeownership rate for young adults is also significantly higher in Australia. While the United States allows mortgage interest and property taxes to be deducted from income for tax purposes, Australia has provided cash subsidies for down payments and mortgage payments. We conclude that differences in housing costs and household characteristics do not explain differences in ownership rates. We also conclude that differences in subsidy policies have only a minor impact on ownership rates.     

Housing Finance in a Stochastic Economy: Contract Pricing and Choice

An empirical analysis of macroeconomic time series from the mortgage, housing, capital and labor markets is based on life-cycle consumption and mortgage option pricing considerations. Vector autoregression techniques characterize the long-run equilibrium and short-run dynamics of the mortgage market as it relates to the other sectoral markets. A simultaneous-equations model characterizes the partial equilibrium in the differentiated products market for fixed- and adjustablerate mortgage contracts. The empirical results reveal the impacts that market conditions have on mortgage volumes and prices, and they generally support the implications of the consumption and pricing theories.     

Housing Tenure in a Model of Consumer Choice: A Simple Diagrammatic Analysis

The paper begins with a general model of demand for housing in an intertemporal utility maximization framework. Under standard assumptions the consumer is indifferent between owning and renting. Relaxation of various assumptions would explain tenure choice, but this is mathematically complex. As an alternative, a diagrammatic model of consumer choice over one period is presented which shows the effects of income, savings, housing and other prices, mortgage interest rates, rates of return on alternative investments, and tastes. Again under standard assumptions the consumer is indifferent about housing tenure. The effects on tenure choice of a change in the assumption about the availability of mortgage credit, rates of return on alternative investments and income taxes are demonstrated.     

Homeownership Returns, Tenure Choice and Inflation

This paper empirically investigates the impact of inflation on homeownership returns and tenure choice when the assumptions underlying the user cost of housing are modified to reflect separately the effects of unanticipated and anticipated inflation. The analysis demonstrates that when the user cost model is specified to reflect the impact of anticipated inflation on house prices, the mortgage interest rate and the capitalization rate, the returns to homeownership are lower than determined by previous user cost studies and are consistent with a reasonably efficient market.     

Another Look at Tenure Choice, Inflation, and Taxes

The purpose of this paper is to explore the impact of inflation on the demand for housing. The first part of the paper presents a theoretical model that identifies the effects of inflation on the after-tax cost of housing and the choice between rental and owner-occupied housing. The second part discusses the results of a simulation model that measures the effect of inflation on the aggregate demand for housing, the aggregate homeownership rate, and the price of housing. The paper concludes that while inflation can be expected to increase the aggregate demand for housing and the price of housing relative to the general price level, inflation should ultimately lead to lower rates of homeownership. A corollary that is probably more relevant today is that lower inflation rates should reduce the real value of the housing stock and increase the homeownership rate. The paper also contains forecasts of the impact of the Tax Reform Act (TRA) of 1986 upon housing demand and the probability of homeownership for a variety of households.     

The Investment in Housing As a Forward Market Transaction: Implications for Tenure Choice and Portfolio Selection

A model of tenure choice is presented which treats the benefits and costs of homeownership from a theory of finance perspective. The incremental benefits from homeownership over renting housing services are from two sources: protection against rental price risk (a forward transaction in the housing market) and from a possible capital gain from the eventual sale of a house (substitutes for portfolio investment). The cost of these benefits is higher initial outlay on housing, which reduces the funds available for portfolio investments. The comparative statics of this model is presented. It is shown that rental risk and portfolio risk add to the value of homeownership. Since homeownership is a partial substitute for portfolio investment, it is shown that the lower the covariance between portfolio returns and future home prices the more valuable is homeownership. In the presence of differential borrowing opportunities it is shown that the leverage available to housing significantly increases the value of homeownership.     

Risk and Return in the U.S. Housing Market: A Cross-Sectional Asset-Pricing Approach

This article carries out an asset-pricing analysis of the U.S. metropolitan housing market. We use ZIP code–level housing data to study the cross-sectional role of volatility, price level, stock market risk and idiosyncratic volatility in explaining housing returns. While the related literature tends to focus on the dynamic role of volatility and housing returns within submarkets over time, our risk–return analysis is cross-sectional and covers the national U.S. metropolitan housing market. The study provides a number of important findings on the asset-pricing features of the U.S. housing market. Specifically, we find (i) a positive relation between housing returns and volatility, with returns rising by 2.48% annually for a 10% rise in volatility, (ii) a positive but diminishing price effect on returns and (iii) that stock market risk is priced directionally in the housing market. Our results on the return-volatility-price relation are robust to (i) metropolitan statistical area clustering effects and (ii) differences in socioeconomic characteristics among submarkets related to income, employment rate, managerial employment, owner-occupied housing, gross rent and population density.     

限价房定价模型实证研究

自2006年推出限价房政策以来,对我国的房价起到一定的平抑作用,但在定价方面存在不尽合理的问题,例如价格参考和价格波动风险等.限价房的定价机制是影响限价房政策执行效果的重要因素,建立科学合理的限价房定价模型并对其进行实证性的研究极其重要.文章通过综合分析各地限价房的定价方法,在前人研究基础上以中低收入家庭的月供及当地租赁价格为两个主要计算指标,对得出的数值进行赋权研究,建立了限价房定价模型.     

Fuly Distributed Cost Pricing,Ramsey Pricing,and Shapley Value Pricing: A Simulated Welfare Analysis for the Telephone Exchange

Economic theory has long been concerned with determining the optimal pricing scheme for a multiproduct monopoly, but it has been quite difficult to make use of developments in practice. Using LECOM, the Local Exchange Cost Optimization Model, over three stylized city maps, and assuming price elasticity values taken from the literature for four standard outputs of the local exchange, we demonstrate how fully distributed cost prices, Ramsey-optimal prices, Shapley prices, and standalone prices can be computed for a variety of baseline output levels. Analysis of consumer surplus changes relative to the marginal cost baseline shows that while Ramsey pricing maximizes social welfare over the set of schemes considered, only the Shapley approach results in subsidy-free prices.     

Housing Market Conditions, Listing Choice and MLS Market Share

In some housing markets, a seller may hire a broker to multiple list or exclusively list a property for sale or may bypass the brokerage industry and list the property privately as a "sale by owner." This article introduces a new model that illustrates the factors which will impact on the broker's and seller's preferred type of listing. An implication of the model is that if the choice is available, sellers and real estate brokers will employ a multiple listing service more often during slower market periods where the volume of sales is low and properties are more difficult to sell. An empirical analysis of Vancouver data yields results consistent with these arguments.     

Institutional Investment,Asset Illiquidity and Post‐Crash Housing Market Dynamics

We examine institutional investors’ entry into the equity side of the single‐family detached housing market using an asset illiquidity framework. We find that institutional investors purchased owner‐occupied houses after the real estate crisis for approximately 6.3–11.8% less than owner‐occupiers. The large discount was in addition to distressed sale and cash purchase discounts which, when combined, highlight the low liquidation value for owner‐occupied housing. The results suggest that asset illiquidity is an important cost of leverage in the owner‐occupied housing market.     

国际工程施工合同的计价方式及其风险管理

从国际工程施工合同的计价方式选择的角度,分析了业主和承包商所承担的风险,提出了双方应采取的风险管理措施。     

Return and Volatility Transmission in U.S. Housing Markets

This article uses the Case‐Shiller U.S. Home Price Indices to analyze spatial dependencies across 16 metropolitan markets for the period January 1989 to June 2006. Return transmission patterns establish New York, San Francisco and Miami as among the most influential markets. In terms of volatility linkages, there is a considerable amount of transmission in the East between New York, Boston and Washington, DC, and innovations in the housing markets of Miami, Los Angeles and San Francisco play an influential role within their respective regions. In comparison, markets in the Central and Mountain regions appear to be relatively independent from external influences. Overall, the linkages appear to be more intensive during the active phase of the real estate market (1999–2006) than during the calm phase (1989–1998).     

Risk and the User Cost of Housing Services

This paper derives a risk-adjusted user cost for housing services, capable of application in price indexes, demand, and the measurement of income and returns to homeownership. The risk-adjusted user cost is the after-tax sum of an interest rate and a risk premium, less expected capital gains. Expected capital gains are based on a factor pricing specification. It is shown that both national and local factors affect capital gains on housing.     

Real Assets,Liquidation Value and Choice of Financing

We use real estate firms to examine how asset liquidation values influence a firm's financing choice, because the productivity and quality of each asset is observable and potential measures of an asset's liquidation value are easier to ascertain ex ante. We show that compared to firms that issue equity, firms that issue debt have higher asset quality. The effect of their expected asset liquidation value is significant, even after we control for other factors that influence financing decisions. For firms whose assets' quality is not easily observable, we find that firms' financing choices depend heavily on conditions in the overall real estate market.     

Biotechnology Commercialization Strategies: Risk and Return in Interfirm Cooperation

The management and exploitation of biotechnological product innovation have proven to be more difficult than initially expected because the number of currently marketed biotechnological products is far from sufficient to counter deficits in pharmaceutical innovation. This study provides insight into the role of governance structures in interfirm cooperation and their effects on biotechnological product innovation and company success. Most of the existing literature regarding alliances and mergers and acquisitions (M&A) examines their effects on technology recipients' innovation performance. Here, the effects of alliances and M&A on both the innovation success and financial performance of technology suppliers (i.e., sources) are examined. Drawing from a sample of 220 human therapeutic biotechnology and biopharmaceutical firms over a period of 32 years (1980–2011), an analysis of the effects of biotechnology clusters, strategic alliances, and acquisitions is provided. This study reveals the existence of a risk‐return trade‐off for strategic alliances between biotech companies and larger, more established firms. Increased biotech company involvement in product development alliances decreases risk by increasing the likelihood of future product introductions. The trade‐off, however, is that biotech companies earn lower returns when their products are developed through such alliances. A similar risk‐return trade‐off effect is found for clusters. However, acquisitions generally affect both product introductions and product returns in a negative way. These findings have strategic implications not only for managing the development of biotechnological product innovations and technology platforms but also for commercialization strategies with respect to interfirm cooperation and risk reduction.     

Regressive Interest Rate Expectations and Mortgage Instrument Choice in the United Kingdom Housing Market

The paper considers the choice of mortgage instrument when the rate of interest is fixed for a short duration, with reversion to a variable (bullet) rate mortgage contract. The research is the first direct test for regressive interest rate expectations using United Kingdom data while testing for wealth and portfolio effects. The econometric modeling uses a variety of nonparametric and parametric techniques to control for classification error in the dependent variable. There is evidence that households adopt regressive interest rate expectations. The lack of statistical significance of wealth and portfolio effects confirms the short run cash flow perspective of United Kingdom mortgage choices.     

Return Risk and Cash Flow Risk with Long-term Riskless Leases in Commercial Real Estate

This paper presents a conceptual analysis of some of the key fundamentals that underlie the risk characteristics of commercial real estate returns. In particular, the relationship between the property's return risk and its cash flow risk is explored. This relationship is important because it is the return risk that should matter most to investors, yet it is the cash flow risk or market risk about which we may have the most objective information and the most intuition. This is because real estate assets are generally unsecuritized and trade too infrequently to observe time series of returns (including appreciation) that could be used to directly study the risk characteristics of the returns. By explicitly incorporating the possibility of cash flows governed by riskless long-term leases, this paper also explores the relationship between lease term and both cash flow risk and return risk.