我国征信体系的经济分析与法制构建

信用征信可以有效降低金融交易中由于信息不对称而引发的道德风险和逆向选择问题,对金融乃至整个经济发展发挥重要作用.从理论研究和国际经验两个维度出发,探讨我国个人征信体系建立中面临的主要法律问题,指出需着重解决的问题.设计我国征信法律规范时,要注意在同时强化信息分享与隐私权保护的进程中,实现动态平衡,明确权利,界定范围.中央政府在建立信用征信体系中应当扮演主导但非排他性的角色,打破现存的行业和地域信息割据.     

健全中国个人信用机制方法的探讨

中国个人信用制度的建设起步较晚,还没有形成相对完善的体系,仍有许多问题尚待解决。借鉴国家成功经验,结合中国个人信用的现实情况,构筑符合中国特色的个人信用机制,须尽快建立和完善个人信用管理的法律制度,培育信用管理人才,宣传信用文化,培育专业的信用评估机构,积极探寻完善中国国情的个人信用机制体系。     

An Examination of Key Factors of Influence in the Development Process of Credit Union Industries

The aim of this paper is to analyse credit union industries within a development framework. Explicit consideration is given to credit union industries in four countries – Great Britain, Ireland, New Zealand and the United States. It is argued that in terms of a developmental typology the credit union industry in Great Britain is at a nascent stage of development, the industries in Ireland and New Zealand are at a transition stage while the US credit union industry is mature in nature. In progression between stages the analysis considers the influence of factors such as situational leadership, the complexion of trade associations, professionalisation, regulatory and legislative initiatives and technology. The analysis concluded that while there was a substantial commonality of experience, there were also significant differences in the impact of these factors. This consequently encouraged the recognition of the existence of 'a variety of the species' in respect of credit union development.     

反思"信用权"——以完善我国信用征信体系为背景

诚实信用原则的确立、美国信用立法的经验以及我国信用严重缺失的社会现实都表明,确立“信用权”不符合在我国建立诚信社会的法律价值诉求。学界试图将有关自然人及法人的信用的保护统一纳入到“信用权”的框架下的努力,不可避免地引发“信用权”是人格权还是无形财产权的争论,“信用权”在理论和实践中都将面临难题。因此,在完善我国信用征信体系的背景下,应由名誉权和隐私权对自然人信用利益加以保护。对法人信用利益的保护,应分别置于民法和反不正当竞争法就商誉相关规定的保护之下。     

Is the US Consumer Credit Asymmetric?

We investigate the existence of any asymmetric effects in the US consumer credit. In doing so, we utilize the asymmetric cointegration methods proposed by Breitung (2001, 2002) and Enders and Siklos (2001). Furthermore, we tend to explore two additional dimensions in this literature. First, whether asymmetries (if any) are persistent over‐time in the credit demand model. Second, whether the Great recession contributed to any asymmetric impacts on the credit demand. Our results revealed that the long‐run relationship of consumer credit (credit, income, wealth and interest rate on personal loans) is asymmetric. While it is difficult to identify the direct sources of this asymmetric result, our intuition is that it is linked to the structural breaks in the rate of personal loans encountered in the early 1980s. Moreover, we find no strong evidence that much of the asymmetric impacts in consumer credit were experienced in the Great recession. Neither have we attained evidence that asymmetric impacts on credit demand are persistent over‐time.     

论我国中小企业融资的信用制度建设

现代经济是信用经济，信用是一切投融资活动的基础。众多学者的研究表明，中小企业信用缺失是造成企业融资困难的主要原因之一。基于此，首先从信息经济学理论角度对信用制度在中小企业融资中的作用作了具体分析；其次说明了中小企业融资难的现实状况，并从博弈理论和现实制度两个层面剖析了信用缺失是中小企业融资难的根源；最后探讨了加强中小企业融资信用制度建设的对策。     

基于金融体系自身缺陷的中小民营企业融资障碍分析

中小企业融资难是个世界性的问题,但我国中小民营企业是有其特殊性的,主要在于现有的金融体系所存在的缺陷阻碍了中小民营企业从正规渠道融得资金,这又主要体现在三个方面,即信贷机构对中小民营企业融资机制存在许多缺陷;中小民营企业信用担保机构的发展出现多样化趋势,但蕴涵较大的金融风险;直接融资渠道缺失与资本市场缺乏层次.     

基于中小物流企业价值的信用评级体系研究

物流金融在我国发展迅速,成为物流企业和金融企业拓展发展空间、增强竞争力的重要领域。但中小物流企业融资难仍然是制约其发展的主要瓶颈,已经成为第三方物流发展壮大的最大障碍。本文分析建立基于中小物流企业价值的信用评级体系的必要性,提出建立该信用评级体系的四个步骤,实现物流金融的科学化、精细化发展。     

对国有商业银行"惜贷"问题的理性思考

国有商业银行“惜贷”折射出信用环境不佳,信贷风险大和管理机制缺陷等问题。尽管有其经营行为理性的一面,但对银行自身和社会都是不经济的,尤其是央行刺激内需,缓解通货紧缩压力的政策意图准以得到有效贯彻。解决“惜贷”问题的关键是加大国有商业银行深层次改革的力度,构建完善的信用担保体系和企业征信系统,依法规范社会信用关系。     

The size distribution of the banking sector and the effects of monetary policy

In recent years, the industrial organization of the banking system has received a large amount of attention. In particular, it is generally viewed that the size distribution of the banking sector has changed where it is dominated by a small number of large institutions. In this paper, we develop a model of imperfectly competitive banks that differ in terms of the size of their deposit base. Such differences are important for aggregate credit market activity and the effects of monetary policy. Notably, we explain how the optimal size distribution of the banking system involves trade-offs from distortions in credit markets due to imperfect competition across banking markets. Second, the effects of monetary policy on credit market activity are weaker in an economy dominated by a small number of large banks. Empirical analysis examining the role of concentration among the current members of the European Monetary Union is consistent with the predictions of the model.     

Is the US Phillips curve stable? Evidence from Bayesian vector autoregressions*

It has been claimed that the fall in US inflation during the Great Recession was surprisingly small. One possible explanation for this is that the Phillips curve is unstable and that its slope was lower around the Great Recession. We investigate the importance of time-varying parameters using Bayesian vector autoregressions for inflation and unemployment. We find support for time variation in the inflation equation and an unstable Phillips curve that was somewhat flatter between 2005 and 2013. However, conditional forecasts mostly suggest that inflation was not unexpectedly high around the Great Recession, which puts the claim of a “missing disinflation” into question.     

银行业联合授信制度制约企业的非效率投资了吗——基于沪深A股公司的分析

中国银保监会出台联合授信管理制度旨在抑制企业过度融资行为,提高资金使用效率。为检验该制度是否达到预期效果,采用2014—2018年沪深A股上市公司样本,运用非平衡面板数据回归实证考察联合授信机制对企业非效率投资的影响,发现联合授信对企业的非效率投资（包含投资不足和投资过度）呈现显著抑制效应,其中联合授信对投资过度的抑制效应最大。进一步研究发现,相较于国有、大规模、低负债、高盈利等异质属性的企业,联合授信对非国有、小规模、高负债、低盈利等属性企业的非效率投资（尤其是投资过度）抑制效应更为显著。     

信贷量经济效应的期限结构研究

银行信贷和经济波动的关系一直是理论和实务界关注的焦点,过去国内的研究大多仅从信贷总量层面入手而忽视了结构效应,这不利于厘清信贷在经济中的作用机理。在将贷款按期限划分为短期贷款和中长期贷款后,本文通过应用一个小型DSGE模型,发现短期贷款对经济增长虽有短期的促进作用,但却形成通货膨胀压力;而中长期贷款对经济增长有长期的促进作用,同时对通货膨胀有一定的抑制作用。以我国1998-2010年的宏观数据为样本进行的FAVAR检验支持了上述观点。该结论一方面意味着信贷政策及其监管应加强对信贷期限结构的关注,另一方面结合我国近年来中长期贷款比重大幅上升的客观事实,也从一个新的视角解释了货币信贷加速扩张的同时,价格水平却较为稳定的"中国货币之谜"。     

Decentralized credit and monetary exchange without public record keeping

Summary. We relax a standard assumption on the matching technology in a search model of money. In particular, agents may remain in a long-term partnership as long as it is in their self-interest. With this simple modification, it is possible to support self-enforcing, intertemporal trade which resembles credit without a public record keeping device. We examine conditions for co-existence of currency and credit and the welfare gains/losses associated with the introduction of money.Received: 20 April 2003, Revised: 10 July 2003JEL Classification Numbers: E0.An earlier version of this paper was entitled Money and Search with Enduring Relationships. We wish to thank Narayana Kocherlakota, Rachel Kranton, Jeff Lacker, Andrei Shevchenko, Shouyong Shi, Ted Temzelides, Chris Waller, and especially David Andofolatto, Gabriele Camera, Drew Saunders, and Randy Wright for helpful comments on that earlier draft, as well as seminar participants at the University of Pennsylvania, Purdue University, American Economic Association Meetings, Summer Econometric Society Meetings, and NBER Summer Workshop. Corbae wishes to thank the Research Department at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis for research support.Correspondence to: D. Corbae     

基于可信性理论的中小企业信贷风险评估

商业银行是中小企业最重要的外部融资渠道,但限于信息不对称等因素的制约,商业银行对中小企业的授信额度远不能满足其发展的需要.在此背景下,对中小企业的信贷风险进行科学评估,增强商业银行授信的安全性,是有效解决其融资难的重要措施.通过采用公理化的可信性测度和经典的层次分析法,本文构建一个基于可信性理论的风险评估模型.模型在评估多层次风险指标时,能够避免选取隶属函数存在主观性的问题.此外,可信性测度具有自对偶性,使得模型的评估结果更容易理解和接受.针对信贷风险多因素的复杂性,建立了商业银行信贷风险评估的多层次指标体系,并运用本文所提出的风险评估模型对中小企业的信贷风险进行评估,实例证明该模型的可行性与有效性.     

Credit unions and risk

The structure of the credit union industry has been transformed by regulatory changes and the subsequent switch by many credit unions to community and multiple-bond fields of membership. This study explores the impact of these trends by testing for differences in risk across credit unions with different field-of-membership types. In tests for differences in risk of bankruptcy and of breaching regulatory standards, risk is found to be greater for credit unions with broader field-of-membership types. These differences in risk appear to derive from greater earnings volatility and lower ROA and net-worth ratios at community and multiple-bond credit unions. These differences in risk decline with greater asset size. Evidence is also presented that credit unions that switched from single-bond institutions to broader field-of-membership types now operate with greater risk.     

基于晋商实践的信用起源与维持机制

当前的经济活动中存在着各式各样的欺诈行为,违约、制假、债务拖欠等现象在日常生活中十分常见,以至于人们时常用“信用危机”来描述现实生活中的信任关系与信用状况。通过对明清晋商商业实践的分析,认为我国曾经是一个拥有良好的“诚信”传统与信用机制的国家。现代信用体系的建立与维持不仅需要加强信用法规的建设,而且也需要大力挖掘传统社会的信用资源,加强人们的诚信信念。     

解决中小企业融资难的一个新视角——中小企业信用评价指标体系的构建

近年来,我国中小企业取得了长足的发展,也遇到了各种各样的问题,其中以融资难最为突出,已引起了全社会的关注。中小企业融资难就难在"信用"上,构建专门针对中小企业的信用评价指标体系是解决融资难的有效途径之一。笔者在分析我国现行的企业信用评价指标体系不足的基础上,结合中小企业的特点,从财务、非财务两方面构建中小企业信用评价指标体系,帮助银行对中小企业信用情况进行客观公正的评价,以解决中小企业融资难的问题。     

微小企业融资困境与信贷机制创新

微小企业融资长期被正规金融机构边缘化的原因在于为其提供贷款"成本高、抵押难、风险大".与大银行相比,中小银行在获取"软信息"、降低单位交易成本、防范信用风险等方面更具比较优势,中小银行通过信贷机制?的创新向微小企业提供贷款能按照商业可持续原则实现金融机构、微小企业、政府等主体的共赢.本文基于数理模型简要论证了微小企业融资难,且其融资困境的化解在于信贷机制的创新的问题.在此基础上通过对台州市商业银行小本贷款案例分析得出相应结论,为微小企业融资市场正在不断深化的中国提供一些有益的启示.     

完善信用担保体系:解决中小企业融资难的路径

中小企业是我国国民经济发展的重要力量,但是目前中小企业发展的最大障碍是资金短缺问题.本文通过对中小企业融资困境分析表明,向金融机构贷款是解决中小企业融资困难的主要渠道,信用担保体系又是制约中小企业贷款的主要因素,目前我国现有中小企业信用担保体系远不能满足中小企业融资条件的要求.文章根据我国中小企业融资的实际情况,探讨了从政府机构、信用担保机构、中小企业自身、法律法规、贷款机构的角度建立和完善我国中小企业信用担保体系问题.