Is there any common knowledge news in the Euro/Dollar market?

This paper analyzes the effect of nine categories of news announcements on the quoting activity of individual foreign exchange (FX) dealers on the Euro/Dollar exchange rate from May to October 2001. We use the double autoregressive conditional Poisson model (DACP), which is designed for time series of count data, which can be both under- or overdispersed. We find that dealers' quoting activity reacts differently to the same announcements, some increasing their activity, whilst others decrease it in response to the same news. Based on the taxonomy of Evans [Evans, M. (2002), Fx trading and exchange rate dynamics. Journal of Finance 57(6), 2405–2447.], we classify our news categories in two groups: common knowledge (CK) and non-common knowledge (NCK) news, according to their effects on quoting activity and price changes. Finally we show that scheduled news announcements are NCK news, and there is no evidence for the existence of CK news amongst our announcements, which means that dealers hardly get a consensus in interpreting the news content.     

知情选择对中国避孕行为的影响分析

利用近三十年来的避孕抽样调查数据,考察知情选择的逐步展开对中国已婚育龄人群避孕行为的影响。育龄人群的避孕行为已随知情选择发生较大变化,短效自控型避孕措施选择的可能性在逐步升高,长效医控型避孕措施选择的可能性在逐步降低,避孕模式呈自由选择多元化发展态势。知情选择强化了个体因素在避孕措施选择中的决定作用,为育龄个体提供了更为自由的避孕选择空间。避孕行为受子女性别影响的社会事实长期存在,知情选择在一定程度上增加了性别偏好对避孕措施选择的影响。     

中国金融体制改革阶段研究

本文尝试对中国的金融体制改革进行阶段性研究,力求在纵的和横的两方面得到清晰的脉络,并在此基础上探讨更深层次的中国金融体制改革所面临的重要课题,据此对中国金融的未来政策取向有所预期。     

Models for count data with endogenous participation

We present several extensions of the Poisson and negative binomial models for count data based on the lognormal model for latent heterogeneity in the conditional means. The lognormal model provides a versatile specification that is more flexible than the familiar log gamma form, and provides a platform for several “two part” extensions that have appeared in the literature, including zero inflation, hurdle and sample selection models. We then extend these received two- part models by allowing for endogeneity of the participation equation. We conclude with a detailed application using the data employed in a recent study of the German health care system.      

The impact of the market transparency unit for fuels on gasoline prices in Germany

Increasing horizontal as well as vertical transparency in oligopolistic markets can be advantageous for consumers, due to reduced search costs. However, market transparency can also affect incentives to deviate from collusive agreements and the punishment by rival firms in the market. Using a panel of 27 European countries, we analyse the impact of increased market transparency via the introduction of a market transparency unit for fuels in Germany. Applying a difference-in-differences approach, we find evidence that both gasoline and diesel prices have increased. While consumers may be better off using a retail price app for fuels, gas stations are also able to compare prices at almost no cost.     

退市金融机构员工安置问题探讨

员工遣散安置是金融机构市场退出过程中的重要内容之一.员工安置工作关系到社会稳定,涉及面广,政策性强,其成功与否直接影响金融机构市场退出进程的顺利推进.由于相关法律法规不健全,员工安置常常缺乏明确的政策依据和规范的操作程序,处在边实践边摸索的阶段.近年来退市金融机构员工安置的实践表明,退市金融机构员工安置的法律法规政策适用、具体实践操作、存在问题以及发展方向等均值得探讨.     

Financial intermediation and endogenous risk in the banking sector

The paper revisits the impact of uncertainty on the decision problem of a bank. The bank extends risky loans to private investors and sells deposits to savers at fixed rates. The uncertainty under which deposit/loan-portfolios are chosen by banks is endogenized through an information system that conveys public signals about the return distribution of bank loans. Transparency in the banking sector is defined in terms of the reliability of these signals. We find that higher transparency always raises expected bank profits, but may lead to a higher or lower expected loan volume. Moreover, higher transparency may reduce economic welfare.     

短期影响中国商品房房价因素的计量分析--基于31个省市的横截面数据

房价问题是影响国计民生的重要问题之一,分析房价的影响因素具有重要的现实意义。收集2012年北京、天津等31个省市相关指标的横截面数据,尝试在三种不同情况下用经典线性模型进行逐步回归拟合数据,再对不同模型进行比较,从而选出最优模型。最后,通过最优模型分析得出人均可支配收入与失业率是短期内影响中国商品房房价上涨的主要因素。     

流动性过剩背景下的金融结构优化

中国经济当前处于流动性过剩状态,这一问题若不能很好解决,容易引发经济和金融危机。解决流动性过剩既需要实行提高法定存款准备金比率、加大公开市场回笼货币力度和发行定向票据等相机抉择的短期政策,更重要的是采取金融结构优化的治本之策。金融结构优化的具体措施包括多层次资本市场的完善,大力发展机构投资者,发行债券收购国家外汇储备的增量,推进银行业的综合化经营以及进行结构化产品创新和房地产投资信托产品创新等。     

Nonlinearities between oil spot and futures markets： Evidence from intraday data

This paper builds on the literature of the relationship between oil spot and futures prices from the NYNEX market, both in their means and in their conditional volatilities, to investigate whether the association is linear or not. The novelty of this work is based on intraday data from both markets. The empirical findings indicate the presence of nonlinearities both in means and conditional volatilities. Moreover, non-linear causality estimations both in means and in volatilities reveal the presence of bi-directional causality, a fact that provides additional support to the hypothesis that both markets are driven by the same information sets.     

The Role of Market Sentiment in Asset Allocations and Stock Returns

Abstract

The authors investigate the role of mutual fund flows in incorporating market sentiment into asset prices. They show that retail investors adjust their investments among mutual fund categories in response to changes in market sentiment. Consistent with sentiment-induced price pressure through fund flows, they further find that firms favored by mutual funds, such as large-cap, dividend payers, and firms with high institutional ownership are sensitive to market sentiment. The authors construct a pricing factor representing sentiment risk and find that the sentiment factor is significant in standard asset pricing models and robust to various sorting procedure.     

国有企业、金融市场改革与养老保险制度改革的互动效应--中国如何解决老年保障问题?

中国政府非常清楚社会保障所面临的危机，决定寻求解决办法。拟议中的社会保障改革的核心是积累制和整合条块分割的体系，计划为每个工人建立个人退休账户，对养老基金进行有效投资。然而，这种改革受阻于三个关键因素。(1)在向积累制的转化过程中必须支付特制成本；(2)现有的社会保障体系条块分割、分散化管理3(3)已经积累的基金尚未取得高收益，也未分配到最有效率的用途上。     

金融集聚与产业结构升级——来自2003—2007年省际经济数据的实证分析

金融集聚使集聚区内部的金融产业和相关产业联系更加紧密。金融发展通过作用于产业结构变动的内在机制对产业结构的调整与产业水平的提升产生重要影响。本文通过引入区位熵从银行、证券、保险三个方面分析了31个省市地区的金融集聚程度,然后利用2003—2007年省际面板数据借助时刻个体固定效应模型检验了金融集聚对产业结构升级的贡献度,发现金融集聚对我国东、中、西部的产业结构升级都具有明显的促进作用,并且呈逐年上升趋势,同时银行业对产业结构的升级贡献度明显大于证券、保险业。     

金融市场发展与金融风险防范研究

随着防范和化解金融风险问题研究的深入,揭示和探讨金融风险的深层原因及根本性防范化解措施非常重要。本文分析了金融市场效率、信息不对称引发金融风险的两个深层原因及治理策略,并认为资产证券化是防范和化解金融风险的重要举措     

关于保险市场道德风险的微观经济学问题研究

保险市场是一个典型的信息不对称市场,主要表现为道德风险问题,这种对信息占有的不对称状况,很容易被保险市场参与者所利用,并导致保险市场运行的低效率。目前,中国保险市场上保险公司和投保人之间的道德风险问题表现得比较突出,已经成为制约保险业可持续发展的一个重要因素。本文从理论角度研究道德风险问题产生的机制,梳理信息不对称问题在理论上的解决方法,并从中得到保险市场应对道德风险问题的建议。     

Early Retirement and Economic Incentives

In Norway, early retirement programmes have gradually reduced the retirement age from 67 to 62 for a majority of the labour force. Based on micro data for 1990 and 1992, we estimate a competing-risk model with three states: full retirement, partial retirement/part-time work and full-time work. We then use the estimated model in simulations to study how financial incentives can be strengthened to extend working life. Financial incentives, educational background and industry affiliation are found to influence retirement behaviour. For low and medium incomes, the tax system shifts the incentives heavily towards early retirement and, in particular, towards partial retirement combined with part-time work.