我国国际资本流动性程度和非流动性原因的度量与检验--来自中美日三国消费模式对比的经验证据

加入WTO以后,我国的国际资本流动性开始有所加强,流动方式也有所改变。文章选择中国、美国和日本的消费和收入数据,在国家之间实际利率均衡的假设下,通过国家消费模式的考察和对比,发现我国的经济运行并不满足国际资本完全流动性假说,其原因既出于我国资本市场与国际资本市场之间存在进入限制,也出于我国资本市场与国际资本市场的非完全整合。这些经验发现表明,我国经济中的名义利率、汇率和资本市场仍然处于有限管制过程中,必须通过深化国内金融体制改革和逐步实现资本市场开放等有力措施来增强我国国际资本的流动性,进而保持我国快速经济增长和提高整体资源配置效率。     

Financial systems and economic growth in South Africa: a dynamic complementarity test

This study examines the relationship between banks, stock markets and economic growth in South Africa. The study attempts to answer one critical question: are stock markets and banks complementary to one another in the process of enhancing economic growth? The complementarity between the stock markets and banks is examined by including a set of interactive terms in a standard growth model, alongside bank development and stock market development proxies. In order to test the robustness of the results, three proxies of stock market development have been used, namely stock market capitalization, stock market traded value and stock market turnover – against the ratio of bank credit to the private sector, a proxy for bank-based financial development. The economic growth is, however, proxied by real GDP per capita. Using the ARDL-Bounds testing procedure, the study finds that the complementarity between stock market development and bank-based financial development is weak and sensitive to the proxy used to measure stock market development.     

金融发展与内生经济波动

开放经济中,金融发展在促进经济增长的同时,也把影响经济波动的国际因素传导到了国内。而这种负面影响在金融发展理论中却被忽略了,正因为如此,许多发展中国家出现了超越其经济发展水平的“过度金融发展”问题。金融深化可以促进金融市场发展和金融中介机构的发展,通过资产组合、财富效应、国际资本借贷把国外影响经济波动的效应传导至国内;另外,金融发展还可通过促进国际贸易的发展而传导外部影响。对样本国家进行分析的结果证实金融发展的确导致经济波动内生化。     

International cross-listing and stock market development in emerging economies

Why have emerging equity markets grown so rapidly since 1990? First, it is shown how international cross-listings can transform a segmented local equity market from an equilibrium of low liquidity and market capitalization to an integrated market with high liquidity and market capitalization by altering the incentives of companies and individuals to participate in the market. Second, benefits of international cross-listings for domestic stock market development and welfare across emerging equity markets are found to be negatively related to both the degree of correlation between the domestic and world equity market and the relative size of the domestic equity market. Third, the price impact of international listing is shown to depend on the liquidity conditions in the domestic market prior to listing.     

Information disclosure, banking development and knowledge-driven growth

In this study we develop a knowledge-driven growth model which explicitly models the banking sector as monopolistically competitive. The main mechanism through which financial intermediaries affect the real economy is through the evaluation and provision of liquidity to R&D projects. We distinguish two scenarios. In the regime with information disclosure, banks are able to use the stock of information obtained by the banking industry from evaluating R&D projects. This information externality brings about efficiency improvements, thereby leading to a positive entry of banks, more bank-funded research and in turn positive economic growth. By contrast, in the regime with no information disclosure, it is not profitable for new banks to enter the industry. This implies that no more potential R&D projects can be evaluated and hence financed, thus leading the economy to a zero-growth equilibrium.     

Financial market development,global financial crisis and economic growth: evidence from developing nations

Emerging and frontier markets in Africa have witnessed various economic and financial reforms aimed at integrating the domestic markets into the global financial market to attract investment. Whether these reforms promote high economic growth remains inconclusive. The paper applies the pooled mean group estimation technique to empirically re-investigate the link between financial market development, global financial crisis, and economic growth in selected African economies. The results strongly support our hypotheses that stock market and banking sector development promotes economic growth in the selected countries. Moreover, financial crisis reduce the positive effects of both the stock market and banking sector developments on economic growth. The study suggests that both the banking sector and stock market are important to deliver the long-run economic growth that the African region desired. Moreover, effort should be made to enact policy measures that would ensure development of the stock market which has received inadequate attention.     

Capital flows to an emerging financial market in Turkey

Increased globalization in financial markets implies that the percentage of all shares under foreign ownership in domestic stock markets has been rising. Speculative attacks on the foreign exchange market in February 2001 led to deep economic crisis in Turkey. This article will explore various indicators of the financial crisis in Turkey based on a macro-model. The foreign share of the domestic economy is a key variable to establish the degree of vulnerability during a financial crisis. An empirical investigation shows that the percentage of shares owned by foreigners on the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) has been increasing since 1995 and is currently about 50 percent of the total. Furthermore, the general index of stock market prices in 1999 was at its highest level since 1995. This would imply that the general price index of the stock market is another strong indicator of an impending financial crisis. An empirical investigation of Turkish data based on a theoretical model is presented in this paper. An unexpected capital outflow would certainly cause exchange rate fluctuations, balance of payments problems, and international debt crisis. Hot money inflows boost share prices and keep the real exchange rate high. However, short-term stay of capital implies a sudden capital outflow that creates financial crisis, which results in international debt crisis. This in turn leads to a further increase in loans from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Relatively high stock market prices may suggest an impending financial crisis. Using Turkish stock market price data, an impending financial crisis can be statistically predicted.     

对当前中国资本市场的若干思考

中国资本市场正进入一个新的历史发展阶段,保持政策的连续性和稳定性,是当前中国资本市场发展的重要条件;人民币升值趋势、流动性过剩和国民经济的持续成长使中国资本市场发展面临历史性机遇;资本市场发展将对中国商业银行的改革和发展带来全面而深刻的影响;中国要想实现从经济大国到经济强国的转变,资本市场的发展不可缺少。     

中国金融发展与经济增长的关系分析

古典经济学家大多认为金融发展能促进经济增长,以往国内外文献的研究中也不乏此类观点,但是随着近些年我国信贷市场、股票市场以及债券市场的不断扩张,金融市场也在快速繁荣的发展,其在整个经济体系中的影响也越来越重要,我们有必要在新的发展阶段重新验证其在经济增长中的作用。文章特选取1992—2009年间的数据进行实证研究,结果显示:经济增长是金融发展的格兰杰成因,但随着滞后期的延长,这种作用越发不明显,同时金融发展对经济增长的作用也是显著的。     

Liquidity risk and bank portfolio management in a financial system without deposit insurance: Empirical evidence from prewar Japan

Using data from prewar Japan, this paper investigates the impact of a liquidity shock induced by depositors' behavior on bank portfolio management during financial crises in a system lacking deposit insurance. It is found that banks reacted to the liquidity shock sensitively through an increase in their cash holdings not by liquidating bank loans but by selling securities in the financial market. Moreover, banks exposed to local financial contagion adjusted the liquidity of their portfolio mainly by actively selling and buying their securities in the financial market. Finally, there is no evidence to conclude that the existence of the lender of last resort mitigated the liquidity constraints in bank portfolio adjustments.     

中国股市市盈率的变化趋势及国际比较

在市场充分有效的前提条件下,市盈率应该较正确地反映一家公司的基本面和市场因素,包括财务指标、成长性、管理能力、公司治理、股票流动性等多方面。基于对2007年沪深股市的观察,对中国证券市场历史数据进行实证分析和国际比较,可以客观地解答当前中国股民关于市盈率的困惑。     

China's Banking Reform

This article discusses the main problems facing the Chinese banking system and concludes that, despite serious problems, the risk seems small that, in the near future, a financial crisis will occur that will pose severe problems for the international financial system. An internal financial crisis, however, could occur. Without government support, the economic viability of many of China's banks is questionable. The government and central bank authorities acknowledge the situation and have taken some steps toward reform. The most serious threat to the banking system lies in the accumulation of non-performing loans (NPLs)--many of them policybased loans extended by state-owned banks to money-losing state-owned companies with little expectation that they would be completely repaid. China has been taking measures to keep the problem from worsening and has created four asset management companies to dispose of NPLs that still have value. Since the Chinese economic reforms began in 1978, Chinese authorities have made significant progress in modernising their banking system, although they still have a long way to go. However, there are several ameliorating factors that still keep its financial and foreign exchange system viable. China's continued high rate of growth and high savings rate have funneled deposits into the banking system, while a $20-30 billion annual trade surplus together with an inflow of foreign direct investment at about $40 billion per year have resulted in an accumulation of foreign exchange reserves exceeding $200 billion. China does not carry an unusually heavy debt burden, either domestic or international, although its short-term borrowing in foreign currencies has been increasing. China does not currently face a serious risk of either a domestic or international liquidity crisis--unless, of course, a severe and prolonged world recession occurs that adversely affects Chinese exports as well as the inflow of foreign direct investment.     

论美国次贷危机的传导机制

2007年7月,美国次级按揭贷款（以下简称次贷）引发了全球金融动荡,股市和汇市波动明显,主要金融市场呈现流动性不足。为维护金融稳定,各国中央银行纷纷出手救市。机构投资者和金融机构损失巨大,金融市场余波未定,实体经济衰退风险增大。尽管如此,投资者目前并不清楚还有多少损失没有暴露。有关次贷危机的许多问题值得我们深入思考。     

Liquidity risk and bank portfolio allocation

The joint existence of a lender of last resort and of a stock market is usually considered the sign of a developed financial infrastructure. This paper analyzes whether a securities market may play a role similar to that of a lender of last resort by being of assistance to a bank, which faces possible liquidity shortages. We examine which of these two institutions best prevents a bank's liquidity shortages while allowing the optimal allocation of the bank's resources. Our results suggest that securities markets matter more for the liquidity of banks than a lender of last resort.     

Endogenous Growth Models and Stock Market Development: Evidence from Four Countries

This paper re‐examines the relationship between stock market development and economic growth. It provides a theoretical basis for establishing the channel through which stock markets affect economic growth in the long run. It examines the hypothesis of endogenous growth models that financial development causes higher growth through its influence on the level of investment and its productivity. The empirical part of this study exploits techniques recently developed to test for causality in VARs. The evidence obtained from a sample of four countries suggests that investment productivity is the channel through which stock market development enhances the growth rate in the long run.     

流动性供给、最后贷款人与金融系统稳定:一个次优选择

中央银行维护金融稳定的能力建立在其能够为市场提供流动性这一特有能力的基础之上。事实上,金融危机期间,各国央行一方面通过调整自身的资产负债表而创造流动性以支持金融系统正常运转;一方面动用最后贷款人职能对个别机构进行救助。需要注意的是,大规模流动性供给和救助行为并非是"最优"的选择,其对经济金融失衡的影响、对公平效率的损害,以及由此带来的通胀压力和政策外溢效应不容忽视。     

A Simple Model of an International Lender of Last Resort

This paper develops a simple model of an international lender of last resort (ILOLR). The world economy consists of many open economies, each with its own banking system and its own central bank which uses its reserves to manage a pegged exchange rate. The fragility of the banking system and the limited ability of a domestic central bank to provide international liquidity together can cause currency and banking crises. An international interbank market can help an economy with the needed international liquidity, but this risk-sharing also comes with potential costs of international financial contagion. Such contagious risk is much higher when there is an international interbank market than otherwise. An ILOLR can play a useful role in providing international liquidity and reducing international contagion.     

大国经济体金融结构变迁的理论思考*

近30年来，无论是从规模指标、行为指标还是效率指标着眼，相对于银行而言，大国经济体的股票市场均变得更大、更活跃并更有效率，进而其金融结构总体上呈现向市场导向演进的态势。金融结构的这一演变态势并不因初始金融模式的差异而不同，存在较为显著的趋同现象。经济增长模式从增长型发展向创新型发展的转型是开放型大国经济体金融结构演变的内在根源，而开放和技术变革则是引发这些国家强化或趋同市场主导型金融模式与增长模式转型的直接动因。随着中国经济环境的变化，其现有银行主导型金融结构面临着巨大挑战，股票市场在金融体系中的地位急需提升。\     

Predicting long-run risk factors of stock returns: Evidence from Australia

This study utilises the stock market data provided by the Australian Equity Database to analyse the long-run relationship between Australian stock returns and key macroeconomic variables over the period 1926–2017. To measure the diverse risk factors in the stock market, we examine the possible determinants in four main categories: real, financial, domestic and international. Our results reveal that historical stock returns are strongly connected to financial and international factors as compared to real and domestic factors. Both the 1973–1974 OPEC Oil Price Crisis and 2007–2008 Global Financial Crisis had dampening effects on stock returns. There is a positive association between the US and Australian stock markets in the long-run. These findings on stock market dynamics and their linkages with domestic and international macroeconomic policy changes in the long-run have important implications for traders and practitioners.     

The Collected Works of F.A. Hayek,Vol. 12: The Pure Theory of Capital

This paper discusses the Brazilian financial system and the impact of liquidity preference on regional development in Brazil. In the Post-Keynesian literature, endogenous money is introduced into economic activity through the credit provided by banks. The degree to which banks exhibit lower or higher liquidity preference is crucial to this process. Here we estimate the effect of liquidity preference and other financial variables on the number of Brazilian states' patents, in order to gauge the importance of the bank system to technological progress and regional development.