Impacts of Australia’s free trade agreements on trade in agricultural products: an aggregative and disaggregative analysis

The importance of free trade agreements (FTAs) has been increasing as such agreements help reduce barriers to trade. This paper estimates the agricultural trade creation and export diversion effects of Australia’s free trade agreements (FTAs) at the aggregate and disaggregate levels, using the Poisson pseudo‐maximum‐likelihood (PPML) estimator. It includes 24 of Australia’s major trading partner countries comprising FTA and non‐FTA members and covers 22 years from 1996 to 2017. The heteroscedasticity robust regression error specification test (RESET) confirms the relevance of PPML over the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) estimator. Results showed that China–Australia, Korea–Australia, Australia–USA and Japan–Australia have larger trade creation effects in the agricultural sector. At the commodity level, variation in trade creation effects is estimated from the different trade agreements. Among the selected commodities, the larger effects were generated in trade in sugar and wine by the implementation of the majority of the trade agreements. Overall, the trade creation was greater than the export diversion of the FTAs. The findings of the study have implications for Australia’s future trade agreements.     

中国新疆与哈萨克斯坦农产品贸易现状及潜力评价基于贸易引力模型的实证研究

目的 文章利用2004—2017年乌鲁木齐海关数据,研究中国新疆与哈萨克斯坦农产品贸易的现状、互补性及影响因素,挖掘中国新疆与哈萨克斯坦农产品贸易潜力,为进一步拓展双方农产品贸易提出建议。方法 采用产业内贸易指数和引力模型进行实证分析。结果 中国新疆与哈萨克斯坦农产品贸易规模总体处于增长态势,但贸易联系紧密度不高;中国新疆以出口水果、蔬菜等劳动密集型农产品为主,哈萨克斯坦主要出口畜产品、棉麻丝等资源密集型农产品;农产品贸易整体属于产业内贸易,在九大类细分农产品领域存在各自竞争优势,双方贸易需求基本没有重叠,互补性较强;双方经济总量、人口规模、农产品贸易联系紧密程度、空间距离等是影响农产品双边贸易的重要因素。结论 中国新疆与哈萨克斯坦农产品贸易潜力总体呈现增长趋势,尤其在“一带一路”倡议提出后,双方贸易潜力提升幅度明显。     

Trends in global virtual land trade in relation to agricultural products

Trade volume of agricultural products can be used to quantify the virtual land transfers between countries. This study assessed the virtual land trade (VLT) associated with the global trade of agricultural products using specific crop yield of exporting countries and gave insights in characteristics of different products and different countries. In addition, the features of trade connections were also displayed by network analysis. The results showed that the total virtual land within global agricultural trade increased from 128 million hectare (ha) in 1986 to 350 million ha in 2016, the average annual growth rate was 5.73 %. Increases in trade of oil crops contributed the largest share to this. The proportion of exported land area in total harvested land area increased for almost all categories of agricultural products. Countries engaged in global agricultural trade could be divided into three groups, net exporters, net importers and countries with balanced VLT. The net importers could be further divided into the countries with absolutely scarce land resources and the countries with relative scarce resources. All net virtual land exporters are the countries with more land resources per capita, such as the United States, Brazil and Argentina. Income growth and changes in diet structure are main factors driving increases in VLT. The VLT network became more complex over the study period, with the number of import and export nodes increasing continuously, and the cumulative distributions of export and import node strength following power law distributions. The major links and players within national, geographic, and economic groups also changed significantly over the study period. VLT has a deep impact on society, economy and environment, appropriate policies should be taken to make these interlinkages more sustainable for both importers and exporters.     

Harmonisation of food regulations and trade in the Single Market: evidence from disaggregated data

A structural gravity model is used to quantify the effect ofharmonisation of EU food regulations on intra-EU trade during1990–2001. We construct a database that identifies foodproducts covered by harmonised regulations at a very detailedlevel. We find, at different levels of aggregation, that harmonisationof food regulations has led to more intra-EU trade, and thatthe tariff equivalents of the cost of not harmonising food regulations,subject to the sub-sector elasticity of substitution, vary significantlyacross some food sub-sectors.     

Use of the single factoral terms of trade to analyse agricultural production*

The aim in this note is to reintroduce the single factoral terms of trade into the policy arena. This economic concept has scarcely been used by analysts or policy makers over the past three decades. It is defined and compared favourably with other terms of trade concepts in terms of their usefulness to agricultural policy makers in Australia. A distinction is made between the single factoral terms of trade from the viewpoint of the farm business and from the viewpoint of the farm household, but only slightly different indices are specified in each case because of the very high positive correlation between farm prices paid and consumer prices. Developing industry‐level indices appears to be a more attractive way to proceed given the substantially different rates of growth in total factor productivity (TFP) between agricultural industries. Despite its usefulness, challenges lie ahead in accurately estimating each of the two components of the single factoral terms of trade, the net barter terms of trade and TFP, and the relations between these two components.     

Institutional quality and the duration of agri-food trade flows

Recent trade disruptions and their consequences on supply chains show the importance of stable trade relations for exporters' economic planning and importers' supply security. Both instability in trading partners' economic and institutional environment and differences between them are likely to exacerbate these disruptions. We investigate the role of exporters' institutional quality (IQ) and its similarity with importers' IQ in the stability of trade links. We focus on the trade links of agri-food products exported from sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries to the European Union (EU-28) and consider three dimensions of IQ: ‘government selection, monitoring, and replacement’; ‘efficiency of policy formulation and implementation’; and ‘respect of citizens and state for institutions’. Using a discrete-time duration model, we show that the duration of SSA exports to the EU-28 increases with higher exporters' IQ and similarity of trading partners' IQ. The strongest impact of exporters' IQ is associated with ‘government selection, monitoring, and replacement’. In terms of the similarity of trading partners, ‘respect of citizens and state for institutions’ has the largest impact on trade durations. Our findings suggest that the improvement of countries' IQ may boost the stability of trade relationships. Moreover, the similarity of IQs between trading partners supports the stability of trade links and should be carefully considered when establishing new trade relations.     

Domestic and trade impacts of foot‐and‐mouth disease on the Australian beef industry

Australia is the sixth largest producer of beef and the second largest exporter of beef. Average beef exports from Australia are approximately 65 per cent of the total amount of beef produced, about 1.3 million tonnes. Australia is particularly vulnerable to diseases that are not endemic to the country and could close or disrupt its export markets for beef. In this study, we construct a bioeconomic optimisation model of the Australian beef industry that captures production and consumption decisions, domestically and internationally, and the impacts on the beef industry of a potentially catastrophic disease, foot‐and‐mouth disease (FMD). This study analyses localised to large‐scale outbreaks and suggests that changes in economic surplus because of FMD range from a positive net gain of $57 million to a net loss of $1.7 billion, with impacts on producers and consumers varying depending on the location of the outbreak, control levels and the nature of any trade ban.     

Integrated regional impact assessment of agricultural trade and domestic environmental policies

It remains challenging to derive general findings and conclusions from either economic theory or empirical studies on the relationship between international trade and the regional environment. Consequently, we aim to analyse environmental effects of agricultural trade policies in the Austrian Marchfeld region. We apply an integrated modelling framework that accounts for heterogeneity in agricultural production and environmental outcomes. Scenario analysis is applied to assess regional impacts of different trade policy scenarios. Sensitivity analyses reveal the relative influence of model parameters on outputs. The results indicate that lower domestic tariffs have small beneficial effects on the regional environment. The regional environmental impacts highly depend on the changes in world crop prices through global trade agreements. A laissez-faire market scenario that includes the elimination of trade barriers and agri-environmental payments (AEPs) leads to substantial environmental deterioration. Hence, the alignment of AEPs with WTO trading rules remains an important issue in the trade and environment debate.     

农业企业社会责任壁垒化及对策分析

随着经济全球化的发展和人们消费责任的提高,企业社会责任挂钩于国际贸易壁垒,已经成为各国贸易中备受关注的话题。中国是农业大国,加入WTO以后,农产品出口企业一直面临"企业社会责任"新型贸易壁垒的挑战与考验。文章回顾了企业社会责任壁垒化的十年历程,并运用经济学原理分析其原因,重点指出中国农业企业在承担社会责任方面存在的问题,最后提出加强农业企业社会责任建设、跨越农产品出口壁垒的对策。     

Exchange rate uncertainty and agricultural trade: panel cointegration analysis for Turkey

This study addresses the impact of exchange rate levels and uncertainty on bilateral agricultural trade between Turkey and 20 major trading partners, using panel cointegration analysis for annual data covering the period 1980–2005. Results show that (i) the exchange rate level is less robustly linked to trade volumes than is exchange rate uncertainty, (ii) exchange rate uncertainty is associated with smaller trade volumes in both directions, but more so for imports than for exports, and (iii) income growth in Turkey is associated with greater imports, just as income growth among trading partners is associated with greater exports. These findings provide some clues for understanding the recent patterns of Turkish agricultural trade, and suggest directions for future research.     

中国罗非鱼出口贸易影响因素分析——基于引力模型的实证研究

中国罗非鱼产业一直依靠国际市场来带动其发展,过分依赖于主要贸易伙伴国（地区）。论文选取2002—2012年中国向15个贸易伙伴国（地区）罗非鱼出口量的面板数据,利用引力模型分析中国罗非鱼出口贸易的影响因素,为改善罗非鱼的出口现状、保障罗非鱼产业的持续稳定发展提供政策建议。研究结果表明：需求方的各项经济因素对罗非鱼出口的影响是较大的,罗非鱼国内生产成本的上升制约了罗非鱼的出口贸易,世贸组织和亚太经合组织对促进罗非鱼出口贸易有一定作用。     

江苏省虚拟水贸易结构调整研究

基于江苏省2012年投入产出表及水资源公报的统计数据,运用修正后的投入产出模型,定量计算江苏省贸易用水强度、虚拟水净输出量,并通过调整贸易结构,最大化实现节水效应。研究表明:2012年江苏省虚拟水贸易整体上呈现净流入,有利于节约省内水资源;从贸易额调整来看,在设定的5%、10%、15%3个调整幅度的基础上改变传统的贸易输出、输入结构,化学产品、煤炭采选产品部门出现大规模节水效应,随着调整幅度的增加,净输出量大的部门节水效应越来越大。江苏省虚拟水贸易是当前实现资源节约与经济发展的重要方式。     

中国与RCEP国家农产品进口贸易效率及潜力研究

目的 文章基于2010—2019年中国与区域全面经济伙伴关系协定国家（Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, 以下简称RCEP国家）农产品进口贸易的面板数据,从贸易规模、贸易结构和贸易国别数据切入,研究中国同RCEP国家的农产品进口贸易效率及潜力,为中国与RCEP国家农产品进口贸易的深入发展提出相关政策建议。方法 采用随机前沿引力模型进行实证分析。结果 中国自RCEP国家进口农产品的平均效率为0.54;中国与RCEP国家经济规模、班轮运输连通性指数和货币自由度等因素提升了进口贸易效率,人口规模和贸易自由度等因素阻碍了进口贸易效率的提升;从国别差异看,中国自澳大利亚和新西兰农产品进口贸易潜力和可拓展空间较大;从农产品分类看,4类农产品的进口贸易效率较高;总体而言,进口效率与潜力存在较大的国别异质性,增长拓展空间有待进一步释放。结论 中国应进一步加强同RCEP国家的海陆航基础设施建设等合作,扩大同RCEP国家,特别是贸易效率低下而未来潜力巨大的新西兰等国的农产品进口贸易。     

Do Regional Trade Agreements Increase Members' Agricultural Trade?

The gravity model is used extensively to investigate the trade flow effects of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs). A notable feature common to previous research is the use of aggregate trade data. These studies typically report conflicting, and even negative results of the effect of RTAs on members' trade. Using recent developments in the gravity equation suggested by Baier and Bergstrand (2007) and Anderson and van Wincoop (2003) , this article demonstrates that RTA effects on members' trade depend fundamentally on whether the analysis focuses on agricultural or nonagricultural sectors, on the particular agreement analyzed, and on the length of the phase-in period that characterizes almost all RTAs.