Leistungsbilanzungleichgewichte im Euroraum

The internal imbalances in the euro area are often cited as one of the main reasons for the crisis there. The surpluses, especially those of Germany, correspond to the deficits in the euro area problem countries — Greece, Italy, Ireland, Spain and Portugal. An analysis of the trade and services balances of the problem countries, however, shows that this was only true up to 2004. Since 2005 their deficits with the rest of the world have been bigger, especially with China. Now the imbalances with China, not Germany, are the main concern for euro area problem countries. The reasons for this development were the strong appreciation of the euro and the structure of the economies of the euro area problem countries, which brought them into direct competition with China. Revaluation of other currencies, especially the renminbi, would enable the euro area crisis countries to pursue growth-friendly fiscal consolidation in which stronger external demand replaces internal demand. This was how Germany consolidated its budget — lower fiscal deficits were compensated by external demand contributions. The problem countries could simultaneously shrink both their fiscal and external deficits. Internal devaluation through wage moderation, however, dampens domestic demand and is recessionary in the short term.     

Die Europäische Währungsunion: Viel reformiert,aber noch nicht am Ziel

Since the onset of the euro crisis, many aspects of the governance of the euro area have been reformed. Rules for budget control have been tightened, and oversight and resolution of banks has been centralised. Credit facilities have been created for member states who have trouble tapping financial markets. Moreover, the reform process is not over yet but can be expected to continue for another decade before details of a planned fiscal capacity will be implemented. Yet despite all these reforms, the euro area is still not crisis-proof. The permanent low rate of economic growth and the continuing lack of working macroeconomic coordination are particular reasons for concern.     

Proactive Continue,More Weight on Tax Reduction

In battling against the current global economic crisis, fiscal and taxation policies, as the most important means to intervene the economy, has been the major approach for the governments throughout the world to offset impact of the crisis.China, as the economy with the fastest growth, has received much attention, and China's fiscal and taxation policies which contributed much to the strong economic recovery,in particular, is the very concern of the public.So, what is the trend of the fiscal and taxation policies during 2010?     

Effects of the euro on trade, capital markets and the international monetary system

The implications of the introduction of the euro undoubtedly reach far beyond Europe. How will the rest of the world be affected? What role will the euro play as an international trading, investment and reserve currency? Will it be able to function as a stabilising element in the international monetary system?     

Finanzielle Repression — ein Instrument zur Bewältigung der Krisenfolgen?

Financial repression committed by central banks has been put forward as a means to secretly reduce the real burden of high public debts. Financial repression has allegedly played an important role in the impressive reduction of the US debt ratio after World War II. A mix of conventional budget consolidation and rapid growth was the main driver in this relative debt reduction with a minor role for financial repression. But does financial repression really exist? The authors express different opinions on evidence for this concept. Those authors who find that there are indicators of financial repression fear redistributive tendencies between debtors and creditors and high opportunity costs in the form of savings and investment distortions. Therefore, financial repression is not a “cure” for the high public debts amassed in the euro area during the recent sovereign debt and banking crisis. Furthermore, the high sovereign debts in the euro area may threaten economic development and impose high costs on society. Therefore, reducing these debts is politically highly relevant, and fiscal policy should be characterised by a modest reduction in government spending and/or tax increases, combined with a policy promoting economic growth. Macroprudential regulations should supplement this financial policy.     

The Euro's place in the world monetary system

The European Union is striding ahead on schedule towards European monetary union (EMU). Eleven member states will introduce the euro for book-keeping purposes on 1.1.1999, assigning responsibility for monetary policy to the European System of Central Banks. On 1.1.2002, the euro will also be in circulation as notes and coins, and the participating countries will abandon their national currencies by 30.6.2002 at the latest. But what part will the euro play in the world monetary system? And what conclusions do we need to draw?     

Steering the Unsteerable? Aggregate Fiscal Stance and Spillover Effects in the Euro Area

The concept of aggregate euro area fiscal stance and the underlying assumption of significantly positive cross-country fiscal spillovers is a highly debated topic. The European Commission seems intent on using this concept as a basis for introducing top-down coordination of European fiscal policies. This article argues that the spillover effects of fiscal impulses in one country to the rest of the euro area would be rather limited. Introducing fiscal top-down coordination would require a substantial shift of political competencies from member states to the European level. A discussion of potential changes to the current fiscal framework would need to be part of a wider debate on the future of the European Economic and Monetary Union.     

Fiscal consolidation in Germany

The German federal government’s fiscal consolidation package, announced in June, is designed to permanently reduce the federal deficit to a new target level. This article uses a three-region version of the European Commission’s QUEST model to gauge the impact of the package on Germany and the spillover to the rest of the euro area and the rest of the world.     

Bundesverfassungsgericht und Krisenpolitik der EZB — Stellungnahmen der Ökonomen

In June 2013, the Federal Constitutional Court in Germany held an expert hearing on the suitability of ECB measures, such as the purchase of government bonds, and their compatibility with existing EU and German legislation. The statements of five invited experts are documented here. The authors comment on the path from the agreement that has laid down the basic rules for the euro area to a crisis-driven approach that seems to have forgotten these rules. The ECB policy holds many risks - above all that of financing public budgets almost without limits - for the stability of monetary and fiscal governance in the euro area. On the other hand, ECB measures can also be interpreted as a necessary means to comply with the ultimate task of the ECB, the defence of price stability. Hence the ECB’s crisis measures do not represent any intention to intervene in fiscal or economic policy measures, and after the crisis the ECB can return to a narrower interpretation of the role of a central bank. It should not be forgotten that the ECB measures bear high risks for the countries in trouble as well as for those countries supporting them.     

Das Securities Market Programme — viele Vorteile für den Euroraum

The Eurosystem’s Securities Market Programme (SMP,) the purchase of government bonds of euro area countries strongly affected by the crisis, started in 2010 and ended in 2012. The SMP benefited all parties concerned – the Eurosystem, all euro area countries and the crisis countries. The positive experience with the SMP can be replicated in the private sector with the creation of an exchangetraded fund (ETF), a Smart Beta ETF - SMP Fund. Like the SMP, the SMP Fund would buy government bonds, according to the ECB capital key. As an ETF, the SMP Fund would have low costs. Profits above the German Bund benchmark would be shared: 80% to investors, 10% to the SMP Fund and 10% to advisers who recommend the purchase. The related risks would be reduced by the diversification of the SMP Fund, the financing mechanisms of the euro area, especially the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), the Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) and the banking union. The SMP Fund could support the euro area fiscal capacity and the EU capital markets union. Past and future SMP profits create a fiscal capacity for the euro area with an initial amount of 50 billion Euro.     

Currency Unions in Africa: Is the Trade Effect Substantial Enough to Justify their Formation?

Using estimates that currency unions double trade, we quantify the welfare effects of forming currency unions for the African regional economic communities and for the African Union as a whole. The potential increase in trade is shown to be small, and much less than that resulting from the adoption of the euro. Allowing for increased African trade does not overturn the negative assessment of African currency unions, due to asymmetries in countries’ terms‐of‐trade shocks and their degree of fiscal discipline.     

Low Interest Rates and Public Borrowing

Intereconomics - The fiscal rules of the euro area are being questioned with renewed force.     

The optimum currency area theory and the EMU

The eurozone crisis has revealed certain shortcomings of the EMU, such as its vulnerability to asymmetric shocks and its inability to act as predicted by the theory of optimum currency areas. Although the share of intra-EU trade has increased since the introduction of the euro, dissimilarities in economic structure combined with high degrees of industrial specialisation have increased the EMU’s vulnerability to asymmetric shocks. Moreover, the lack of labour mobility or a transfer payment system limits the EMU’s crisis adjustment capabilities. However, most of the implemented and proposed stabilisation measures seek to remedy this vulnerability by promoting economic integration, further fiscal discipline and debt redemption.     

Does a weak Euro signify poor competitiveness of the Euro zone?

The pronounced decline in the euro’s exchange rate since the currency’s launch at the start of 1999, especially against the US dollar, has rekindled the discussion surrounding the competitiveness of the euro zone. This marks quite a shift of focus within just a short period. When the new monetary union came into being, the emphasis was on the increased significance of the corresponding economic zone, given its economic muscle and its prominent position on world markets. This was taken to indicate that the EMU economies were highly competitive. On the other hand, the drop in the euro’s value since its launch is said by many to reflect a poor competitive position. This article will examine some possible explanations for the depreciation of the euro against the dollar, focussing on the competitiveness of the euro zone, particularly relative to the USA, by applying selected indicators.     

The Stabilising Role of US Federal Fiscal Institutions — What Lessons for the Euro Area?

The classic argument for a euro area “fiscal capacity”, understood in this contribution as a centralised fiscal stabiliser, revolves around the need to dampen the effects of asymmetric shocks. According to those preaching this conventional wisdom, a common fiscal stabiliser designed along the lines of the US federal fiscal system would have stabilised incomes in member states hit the hardest, thereby avoiding the divergence that has unfolded in the aftermath of the financial crisis between the South, led by Italy and Greece, and the North, led by Germany and the Benelux countries.     

Can the Euro Survive?

One of the fascinating aspects of the European debt crisis has been the resilience of the euro. For much of 2011, the euro was a key reserve currency, oblivious to the chaos ravaging European economies. Now, however, the gravity of the crisis is finally dragging down the euro. As the Euro zone debt crisis enters its third uncertain year, the question about whether the euro can survive rises. This paper argues that the euro can survive given policymakers still have in hand various tools. These tools include creating exit rules, implementing new stabilisation rules and instruments, adopting new fiscal policy, introducing conditional Eurobonds, using inflation differentials and providing more independence to the European Central Bank.     

Citizens’ Europe: Crowded out by economic focus

Over the last ten years the European unification project seemed to rely overwhelmingly on progress in economic terms. The most prominent achievements — the Single Market, the harmonisation of market regulation, the euro — were all driven by an economic rationale. However, attempts to rescue Europe from the ongoing financial crisis call for mutual support and solidarity, concepts that can hardly be derived from pure economic reasoning. This leads to an important question that has been too long neglected: what is the political and civic motivation for a united Europe? Besides a great desire to stabilise peace in Europe, the origins of the unification activities also included mutual interest in language, culture, habits and people in neighbouring countries. Has this been abandoned in favour of a purely economic vision? Or are the economic arguments merely the easiest to promote to the European population? What message does this send in times of mistrust in markets and dim economic prospects for the eurozone? Can a political, cultural and civic European spirit still be reinvigorated, and if so, how?     

Warum sich Deutschland der Rezession im Euroraum widersetzen kann

Germany is economically closely intertwined with the other member countries of the euro area. Some of these countries are in a deep recession, and it is feared that Germany will not manage to avoid being swept up by this economic burden for long. However, the German economy also benefits from the depreciation of the euro and low interest rates in the euro area — both of which are results of the economic slump in the euro area, too. In order to get an idea of the magnitude of these countervailing effects, we perform simulations with the RWI-Multi Country model.     

Global economy in the doldrums

The USA and Japan have been in recession since last spring, and the events of September 11 have further intensified the global downturn. How quickly can the USA s keenly expansive economic policy succeed in overcoming the paralysing effects of the terrorist attacks? Is the euro area sliding into recession or will we soon see a return to economic expansion here?     

欧洲主权债务危机及其对中欧贸易的影响研究

随着希腊主权债务危机的爆发,整个欧元区乃至全球又一次地笼罩在经济危机的阴影下。由于欧元体制等问题,使得希腊的债务危机逐渐演变成为欧元区债务危机,其对全球金融市场和主要经济体都产生了重大的影响。本文首先阐述欧债危机产生的背景和原因,进而分析欧债危机对中欧贸易的主要影响,并提出相应的对策建议。