AID US TO WIN THE ELECTIONS: FOREIGN AID AND VOTER TURNOUT

We use an innovative procedure to determine the effect of foreign aid on institutions of governance. We use voter turnout as an indicator variable which allows us to identify whether political competition in a country is based on private goods, such as vote‐buying, or on public goods. We suggest that the marginal effect of foreign aid on voter turnout depends on the wider underlying institutional setting. Contrary to popular belief, the theoretical model implies that a higher voter turnout in response to foreign aid can be undesirable when the increase is a consequence of vote‐buying in the electoral campaign. The empirical evidence we examine is consistent with private‐goods political competition, i.e., political parties use foreign aid for vote‐buying and similar electoral tactics, particularly when the underlying institutions are sufficiently bad. This is consistently estimated across specifications which address a range of endogeneity sources.     

Political Party Impacts on Direct Democracy: the 2015 Greek Austerity Referendum

On July 5, 2015, Greek voters were asked whether to approve or reject the terms of an austerity program offered by the European Union (EU) to resolve an ongoing financial crisis. With a turnout rate of 62.5% overall, 61.3% of Greeks voted “no.” While a majority of voters in every district opposed the bailout’s terms, the margin against the proposed austerity measures ranged from 51.2% in Lakonias to 73.8% in Chanion. This paper presents empirical evidence on the determinants of the “no” vote across Greece’s 56 electoral districts. Our analysis is grounded in public choice theories of why large numbers of people turn out to vote in mass elections. In addition to controlling for standard “instrumental” vote motives, we ask whether political party labels, which serve as summary measures of partisan positioning, and party platforms, which express partisan preferences on ballot questions, are salient in determining electoral outcomes. Holding constant the unemployment rate and average voter age (at the regional level) and the fraction of young people casting ballots for the first time on July 5, 2015 (at the district level), we find that the percentage of ‘no’ votes was reduced significantly by voter support for Greece’s leading pro-austerity party (New Democracy) in the previous nationwide election held in January 2015. In contrast, voter support in January for the anti-austerity party (Syriza), led by sitting Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, had no measurable impact on July’s referendum results. This finding offers support for both instrumental and expressive theories of voting and bolsters the claim that political parties can shape electoral outcomes on questions decided by an institution of direct democracy.     

Does Voter Turnout Influence School Bond Elections?

This article investigates the role of voter turnout in school bond election outcomes. It is widely believed that turnout is negatively related to bond approval rates. Conclusions from previous empirical research, however, may be misleading because many sociodemographic factors and election parameters that influence bond support are also likely to influence voter turnout decisions. To account for the endogeneity of turnout, we employ an instrumental variable approach. We find that the persistent part of voter turnout plays a negligible role in explaining bond approval shares conditioned on election timing, past voting behavior, and district characteristics. Using first‐difference models, change in turnout has a negative and significant influence on change in approval share and probability of bond success. Our results support previous research and suggest that targeted voter mobilization strategies have the potential to influence school bond outcomes.     

The Poll Results Hypothesis

This empirical study seeks to broaden the interpretation of the rational voter model so as to reflect the potential impact of the results of polls of likely voters’ Presidential candidate preferences on the expected benefits of voting and hence on the voter participation rate. This study introduces the poll results hypothesis: in any given state, given the existence of the Electoral College, the greater the lead of a principal Presidential candidate over his/her closest rival as revealed in polls of likely voters, the lower, for at least some portion of prospective voters, the expected gross benefits of voting in that state and hence the lower the aggregate voter participation rate in that state. In a cross-section study of the 50 states during the 2004 general election, it is found, after allowing for a variety of other factors, that the greater the lead (as revealed in polls of likely voters) of either of the principal Presidential candidates over the other in any given state, the lower the voter turnout rate in that state.      

Why are more redistributive social security systems smaller? A median voter approach

One of the stylized facts of unfunded social security programsis that programs are larger in size, measured relative to theGDP, the tighter the link between pension claims and past earnings.We provide a political economy explanation of this stylizedfact in a median voter model, where people vote on the socialsecurity tax rate. We compare pension systems with flat-rateand earnings-related benefit formulas. Only flat-rate benefitsredistribute within a generation from high to low income groups.If labor supply is endogenous, they also imply larger efficiencycosts than earnings-related schemes. Using data on eight Europeancountries, we find that the median voter is typically middle-agedwith high income. For these voters, earnings-related systemsare more attractive both because of less intragenerational redistributionand lower distortions in labor supply. The median voter modelis also able to account for a considerable degree of cross-countryvariation in contribution rates.     

Spoils of War: The Political Legacy of the German hyperinflation

I study the link between monetary policy and electoral outcomes by linking new data on the 1923 German hyperinflation and the vote share of the main parties of Weimar Republic from 1924 to 1933. Exploiting cross-sectional variation in prices in over 280 cities, I find that inflation predicts the vote share of the Volksrechtspartei, an association-turned-party of inflation victims, and positively correlates with the Communists in the 1932 elections. Hyperinflation also leads to a decline in turnout, with a loss of confidence in the German institutions. However, contrary to received wisdom, areas more affected by inflation did not see a higher vote share for the Nazi party. Results are robust to a range of specifications, including models in differences, panel data with fixed effects, Coarsened Exact Matching estimation, Conley standard errors, and an instrumental variable strategy.     

Office-seeking politicians, interest groups and split contributions in a campaign finance model

The present paper investigates an extended version of Prat's campaign finance models. In this model, interest groups make contributions to politicians to influence policy decisions. Voters are assumed to judge candidates on two aspects: policy promises and nonpolicy personal qualities referred to as valence. There are two types of voters. Among these, uninformed voters only observe campaign contributions that take the role of a signaling medium. We solve the equilibrium of the game between politicians and interest groups. We then specify conditions under which a separating equilibrium exists and study the effect of split contributions on the welfare of the median voter.     

The Electoral College System, Political Party Dominance, and Voter Turnout, With Evidence from the 2004 Presidential Election

Within the context of a broadened version of the “rational voter model,” this study empirically investigates a hypothesis that asserts that within the context of the Electoral College System, the greater the degree to which either the Republican Party or the Democratic Party dominates the other in any given state, the lower the aggregate voter participation rate in that state. Using the 2004 Presidential election as the study period, the analysis includes a number of economic and demographic variables. Using a different methodology than previous studies of voter turnout and the Electoral College System, as well as more current data, this study finds strong empirical evidence for the hypothesis. It also is suggested that, logically, the Electoral College System distorts the pattern of voter turnout across states.      

Information and communications technologies in the two Koreas: Contrasts,commonalities, challenges

The purpose of this study is to review the relationship of electoral system and democracy in the Philippines, Thailand and Indonesia. The study looks at the transformation process of the electoral system in each country, and performs a comparative study on post‐democratization electoral reforms using the concepts of competitiveness and fairness. It is found that electoral systems displayed low levels of competitiveness and fairness before democratization, but that their reforms have led to an increase in competitiveness and an improvement in fairness in all three countries. Also, while the post‐democratization electoral reforms have facilitated the above‐mentioned democratic virtues, there have been significant country differences in the details of their progress. The Philippines promoted the competitiveness of the electoral system by adopting a party list system and guest candidate system. Although Thailand and Indonesia showed competitiveness in their electoral systems, they prohibited the participation of non‐partisan candidates in elections for the sake of stability of party politics. The differences are reflections of their particular political histories and contexts.     

The electoral college and voter participation: Evidence on two hypotheses

This paper empirically investigates the impact of the electoral college on voter participation rates across states. Two hypotheses are tested. The first argues that in states where either the Democratic or Republican party strongly dominates the other, voter participation rates are reduced the greater the degree of domination. The second states that in states where neither party overwhelmingly dominates the other, the smaller the majority of the dominant party over the minority party, the greater the voter participation rate.     

The wilder vote and the New South phenomenon: A multivariate analysis

This study employed ordinary least-squares (OLS) regression to explore possible linkages between the election of L. Douglas Wilder to the governorship of the Commonwealth of Virginia and the New South phenomenon. Five selected aggregate level indicators reflective of the New South political terrain served as independent variables. The dependent variable of the analysis was the electoral support garnered by Wilder. Four of the independent variables were statistically significant (race, urbanization, income, and industrialization). However, the education variable did not achieve statistical significance. The model yielded and adjusted R²=.41. The results of our exploratory analysis suggest that the impact of the New South on the Wilder victory was limited, though crucial to his narrow victory. Thus, social and demographic change as suggested by the New South thesis, while important, do not necessarily portend African American statewide electoral success. Further systematic study of this historic contest at the individual level could shed light on political behavior among African American and white voters in the New South.     

Determinants of Geographic Differentials in the Voter Participation Rate

Voter participation rates vary widely across the 50 states. This empirical study seeks, within the context of a broadened version of the ‘rational voter model,’ to identify determinants of this interstate variation. Using the 2004 general election as the study period, it is found that the voter participation rate in a state is positively related to the percent of the state's adult population with at least a high school education, the state's unemployment rate, the percent of the state's population age 65 and older, and the female labor force participation rate in the state. In addition, it is found that voter turnout in a state is negatively related to the state's median family income and the percentage of its population that is Hispanic.     

Does international trade competition influence candidates and voters? The case of Japanese Lower House elections

In this study, we explore the effects of regional exposure to manufacturing imports and exports on candidates and voters in national elections through panel data analyses, dealing with the possible endogeneity issues. We show that candidates tailor their stances toward trade policy in response to changes in local trade exposure. Increased manufacturing exports drive candidates to support relatively open trade policies; however, increased manufacturing imports do not influence candidates’ stances on trade policy. We also find that changes in local trade exposure influence citizens’ voting behavior. In districts with increased exports of manufacturing products, voters tend to cast ballots for parties that pledge to promote a free trade agreement as opposed to those that adopt a cautious attitude toward it. In districts that experience increased imports of manufacturing products, voters tend to support parties that are clearly opposed to establishing it. The economic issues related to international trade appear to be important to both candidates and voters in elections.     

Determinants of Geographic Voter Participation Rate Differentials: the 2014 Mid-Term Election

Voter participation rates vary widely across the 50 states and the District of Columbia. This empirical study seeks, within the context of a broadened version of the “rational voter model,” to identify determinants of this geographic variation. Using the 2014 mid-term general election, it was found that the voter participation rate across states and the District of Columbia was positively related to whether there is a close governor’s race or a close U.S. Senate race, the female labor force participation rate, the percent of the population aged 65 and over, the number of referenda on the ballot, and the degree of voting-by-mail usage. In addition, it was found that voter turnout was negatively related to the percentages of the population that are either Hispanic or Afro-American.     

Did the New Deal solidify the 1932 Democratic realignment?

The critical election of 1932 represented a turning point in the future electoral successes of the Democrats and Republicans for over three decades. This paper seeks to measure the importance of the New Deal in facilitating the Democrats' control of the federal government well into the 1960s. We test whether long-differences in the county-level electoral support for Democratic presidential candidates after the 1930s can be attributed to New Deal interventions into local economies. We also investigate more narrowly whether voters rewarded Roosevelt from 1932 to 1936 and from 1936 to 1940 for his efforts to stimulate depressed local economies. Our instrumental variable estimates indicate that increasing a county's per capita New Deal relief and public works spending from nothing to the sample mean ($145) would have increased the long-run support for the Democratic party by 2 to 2.5 percentage points. We further find that the long-run shift toward the Democratic party after 1928 was not a function of the Roosevelt landslide victory in 1932. Roosevelt's ability to win over voters during the 1936 and 1940 elections with New Deal spending, however, did matter for the long-term.     

Influence of the Number of Statewide Referenda Involving Emotionally-Charged Issues on Voter Turnout, 2006

The issue of same-sex marriage is an emotionally charged one. So is the issue of abortion. This is true to the point where it has resulted in several cases in the placement of statewide referenda on the ballot for voter approval or disapproval. This study tests the hypothesis that greater numbers of such emotionally charged referenda may increase voter turnout because they may elevate the expected gross benefits of voting by empowering “interested voters” while not significantly increasing the expected gross costs of voting. Using state-level data for all 50 states for the 2006 general election, and after allowing for a variety of economic and demographic factors, this study finds compelling evidence that the numbers of statewide referenda dealing with same-sex marriage and abortion did in fact significantly increase voter turnout.

A Classroom Exercise: Voting by Ballots and Feet

This classroom experiment illustrates the efficiency-enhancing property of a Tiebout system in which local public goods decisions are determined by a political process. Students are given playing cards that induce diverse preferences for expenditures on alternative public goods and are initially assigned to specific communities. Then those in each community vote on the type and level of public goods provision, which determine the tax cost. After the provision and tax results are announced, students are free to move to a location where the prior results are more consistent with their preferences. This process continues for several rounds, with a new vote taken at each location after moves have been made. The exercise demonstrates that the combination of voting with feet and ballots tends to increase the total net benefit for all communities. The voting on provision levels is structured to facilitate a discussion of the median voter theorem.     

Substantive Black Political Representation: Evidence from Matching Estimates in the United States House of Representatives

I seek to determine whether race is a factor in how black representatives vote in the United States House of Representatives; if so, this suggests electing more black representatives may improve the economic and political position of blacks if policy positions taken by black representatives on bills that fail to pass would provide tangible positive impacts to members of the black community if passed. Confounding the impact of legislator race, districts represented by blacks on average are quite different than those represented by whites. While past research on this topic uses linear regression techniques with undesirable properties, I improve on past research using matching techniques with more desirable properties. Utilizing a combination of Mahalanobis and propensity score matching, within-caliper matching, and exact matching using data from the 100th–113th Congress, I show black representatives are more likely to vote in agreement with the majority of the Congressional Black Caucus on all votes and on Leadership Conference on Civil and Human Rights, Americans for Democratic Action, and Congressional Quarterly key votes, indicating a substantive racial impact on roll-call voting.     

Policy Makers' Preferences,Party Ideology,and the Political Business Cycle

We generate data on the relative preferences of policy makers for inflation and output stability and reexamine how policy makers and political parties behave for 24 countries by using this new approach. This behavior is essential in both the partisan cycle models and the opportunistic political cycle analysis. Our evidence suggests that right-wing parties exhibit a higher relative preference toward stabilizing inflation than left-wing parties. We obtain mixed results on the opportunistic behavior of incumbent parties. Finally, when we analyze the behavior of left and right ideologies separately, we find overwhelming support for party resemblance in the electoral year and strong evidence of opportunistic conduct by right-wing parties.     

Sugar and Spice and Everything Nice? Teacher Perceptions of Black Girls in the Classroom

This paper uses national data on eighth grade female students and their English, math and science teachers to examine teacher perceptions of student behavior, such as attentiveness and disruptiveness. Particular attention is paid to differences in perception by student race and socioeconomic status. I find that black female students are perceived as less attentive and more disruptive than their white, Hispanic, and Asian counterparts. Controlling for academic performance and socioeconomic status mitigates the differences in perceptions of attentiveness but not disruptiveness. Further, the perceptions of attentiveness are significantly related to the probability that a teacher recommends a student for honors courses. I discuss the implications of these findings for the educational outcomes of black female students.