Sectoral labour supply,choice restrictions and functional form

In this paper we discuss a general framework for analysing labour supply behaviour in the presence of complicated budget and quantity constraints, of which some are unobserved. The individual's labour supply decision is viewed as a choice from a set of discrete alternatives (jobs). These jobs are characterized by attributes such as hours of work, sector‐specific wages and other sector‐specific aspects of the jobs. The labour supply model for married women is estimated on Norwegian data. Wage elasticities and the outcome of a tax reform experiment show that overall labour supply is moderately elastic, but these modest overall responses shadow for much stronger inter‐sectoral changes. Our model is compared with a discrete choice model in which the utility is assumed to be a polynomial. We show that our estimated model has a more economically sensible interpretation and fits the data as well as the alternative approach. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Labor Supply as a Choice Among Latent Jobs: Unobserved Heterogeneity and Identification

This paper discusses aspects of a modeling framework in which the notion of job choice is fundamental. In this framework, workers are assumed to have preferences over latent job opportunities belonging to worker‐specific choice sets from which they choose their preferred job. The main contribution of this paper is an analysis of the identification problem under various conditions, when conventional cross‐section micro‐data are applied. The modeling framework is applied to analyze labor supply behavior for married/cohabiting couples using Norwegian micro data. Based on the empirical model, we discuss further qualitative properties of the model and simulation of counterfactual policy reforms. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

EVALUATING ALTERNATIVE REPRESENTATIONS OF THE CHOICE SETS IN MODELS OF LABOR SUPPLY

Abstract.  During the last two decades, the discrete choice modeling of labor supply decisions has become increasingly popular. Within the literature adopting this approach, however, there are two potentially important issues that so far have not been given the attention they might deserve. A first issue concerns the procedure by which the discrete alternatives are selected to enter the choice set. Most authors choose (not probabilistically) a set of fixed points identical for every individual. Some authors adopt instead a sampling procedure and also assume that the choice set may differ across households. A second issue concerns the availability of the alternatives. Most authors assume all the values of hours of work within some range are equally available. At the other extreme, some authors assume only two or three alternatives (for example, nonparticipation, part-time and full-time) are available for everyone. Some studies account instead for the fact that not all the hour opportunities are equally available to everyone specifying a probability density function of opportunities for each individual. In this paper we explore by simulation the implications of (i) the procedure used to build the choice set (fixed alternatives versus sampled alternatives); (ii) accounting or not accounting for a different availability of alternatives. The results of the evaluation performed in this paper show that the way the choice set is represented has little impact on the fitting of observed values, but a more significant and important impact on the out-of-sample prediction performance. Thus, the treatment of the choice sets might have a crucial effect on the result of policy evaluations.     

New methods for analyzing structural models of labor force dynamics

The economic theory of decision-making under uncertainty is used to produce three econometric models of dynamic discrete choice: (1) for a single spell of unemployment; (2) for an equilibrium two-state model of employment and non-employment; (3) for a general three-state model with a non-market sector. The paper provides a structural economic motivation for the continuous time Markov (or more generally ‘competing risks’) model widely used in longitudinal analysis in biostatistics and sociology, and it extends previous work on dynamic discrete choice to a continuous time setting. An important feature of identification analysis is separation of economic parameters that can only be identified by assuming arbitrary functional forms from economic parameters that can be identified by non-parametric procedures. The paper demonstrates that most econometric models for the analysis of truncated data are non-parametrically under-identified. It also demonstrates that structural estimators frequently violate standard regularity conditions. The standard asymptotic theory is modified to account for this essential feature of many structural models of labor force dynamics. Empirical estimates of an equilibrium two-state model of employment and non-employment are presented.     

Dynamic discrete choice and dynamic treatment effects

This paper considers semiparametric identification of structural dynamic discrete choice models and models for dynamic treatment effects. Time to treatment and counterfactual outcomes associated with treatment times are jointly analyzed. We examine the implicit assumptions of the dynamic treatment model using the structural model as a benchmark. For the structural model we show the gains from using cross-equation restrictions connecting choices to associated measurements and outcomes. In the dynamic discrete choice model, we identify both subjective and objective outcomes, distinguishing ex post and ex ante outcomes. We show how to identify agent information sets.     

Empirical labor search: A survey

This paper surveys the existing empirical research that uses search theory to empirically analyze labor supply questions in a structural framework, using data on individual labor market transitions and durations, wages, and individual characteristics. The starting points of the literature are the Mincerian earnings function, Heckman's classic selection model, and dynamic optimization theory. We develop a general framework for the labor market where the search for a job involves dynamic decision making under uncertainty. It can be specialized to be in agreement with most published research using labor search models. We discuss estimation, policy evaluation with the estimated model, equilibrium model versions, and the decomposition of wage variation into factors due to heterogeneity of various model determinants as well as search frictions themselves. We summarize the main empirical conclusions.     

Aggregation in economies with search frictions

We derive an aggregation result in economies with indivisible labor supply choices and frictional labor markets, obtaining a tractable model of gross worker flows in aggregate labor markets with search frictions. Our result explores the fact that economies with non-convex choice sets and idiosyncratic shocks allow for sunspot equilibria à la Kehoe et al. (2002). We use comparative steady state analysis to demonstrate the applicability of our aggregation result. Our framework reconciles the neoclassical growth model with search frictions with a mildly procyclical participation rate and matches the gross worker flows underpinning those dynamics.     

Testing the intertemporal labor supply model: are jobs important?

The neoclassical life-cycle labor supply model assumes that hours of work are determined by labor supply choices alone and does not include a role for employers or job distinctions. An alternative model in which employers have an interest in employee hours and changing jobs is costly may reconcile weak and conflicting evidence regarding the neoclassical model. An important implication of such an alternative is that individuals may face hours constraints on a job and thus can choose hours freely only between jobs. This paper tests several implications of the neoclassical model against this alternative model of hours determination. Using a unique panel of individuals and jobs constructed using data on women from the 1988–1992 Panel Study of Income Dynamics, I compare hours variances and labor supply elasticities measured within and between jobs. Results provide some evidence against the neoclassical model and suggest that ignoring the role of employers in determining hours of work can lead to downward bias in estimates of labor supply elasticities.     

Estimating and Forecasting the Yield Curve Using A Markov Switching Dynamic Nelson and Siegel Model

We estimate versions of the Nelson–Siegel model of the yield curve of US government bonds using a Markov switching latent variable model that allows for discrete changes in the stochastic process followed by the interest rates. Our modeling approach is motivated by evidence suggesting the existence of breaks in the behavior of the US yield curve that depend, for example, on whether the economy is in a recession or a boom, or on the stance of monetary policy. Our model is parsimonious, relatively easy to estimate and flexible enough to match the changing shapes of the yield curve over time. We also derive the discrete time non‐arbitrage restrictions for the Markov switching model. We compare the forecasting performance of these models with that of the standard dynamic Nelson and Siegel model and an extension that allows the decay rate parameter to be time varying. We show that some parametrizations of our model with regime shifts outperform the single‐regime Nelson and Siegel model and other standard empirical models of the yield curve. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Computer algebra in probability and statistics

This paper discusses the uses of computer algebra within statistics and probability. A distinction is drawn between the use of computer algebra packages to support investigations, by performing calculations, ankl their use to implement structure; to build in elements of a theory (such as stochastic calculus or the Taylor string theory of Barndorff Nielsen and others) as a preliminary to research investigations. Brief surveys are given of instances in the literature of use of computer algebra in probability and statistics. Two examples of implementations of structure are discussed, both drawn from the author's own work with the computer algebra package REDUCE. One is a simple demonstration using moments of the Poisson distribution. The other is itovsn3 , an implementation of the semimartingale stochastic calculus. It is described how itovsn3 may be used to derive the characteristic function of the Lévy stochastic area, following a proof due to S. Janson. Prospects for future work and for work in progress are discussed.     

A Multi-state model of state dependence in labor supply: Intertemporal labor supply effects of a shift from joint to individual taxation

In this paper I develop an intertemporal discrete choice model of female labor supply to analyze the effects of true state dependence and its effect on labor supply behavior over time. The estimation results show that state dependence is significantly positive at the extensive margin and lower but in general still significant at the intensive margin. I apply this model to study the short and long run labor supply effects of a fundamental reform of the German income tax system, i.e. the shift from joint to individual taxation of married couples and show that labor supply responses are significantly higher in the long run than in the short run.     

Response to updated mortality forecasts in life cycle saving and labor supply

Historical evidence shows that demographic forecasts, including mortality forecasts, have often been grossly in error. One consequence of this is that forecasts are updated frequently. How should individuals or institutions react to updates, given that these are likewise expected to be uncertain? We discuss this problem in the context of a life cycle saving and labor supply problem, in which a cohort of workers decides how much to work and how much to save for mutual pensions. Mortality is stochastic and point forecasts are updated regularly. A Markovian approximation for the predictive distribution of mortality is derived. This renders the model computationally tractable, and allows us to compare a theoretically optimal rational expectations solution to a strategy in which the cohort merely updates the life cycle plan to match each updated mortality forecast. The implications of the analyses for overlapping generations modeling of pension systems are pointed out.     

A non-Walrasian labor market in a monetary model of the business cycle

This paper investigates to what extent a new Keynesian, monetary model with the addition of a microfounded, non-Walrasian labor market solely based on union bargaining is able to replicate key aspects of the business cycle. The presence of a representative union offers an explanation for two features of the cycle. First, it generates an endogenous mechanism which produces persistent responses to both supply and demand shocks. Second, labor unionization reduces the elasticity of marginal costs to output. This leads to lower inflation volatility. Model simulations show that the unionized framework can better reproduce European business cycle data than can a model with a competitive labor market.     

Labor Supply Effects of Federal Rental Subsidies

Federal rental subsidies appear to create disincentives for work through marginal taxes on earnings, income effects, and requirements that nonrecipients on waiting lists maintain low incomes in order to remain eligible. This paper takes advantage of the rationing of housing subsidies by identifying labor supply effects using analytic methods that could not be validly applied to unrationed programs. It finds that subsidies substantially reduce hours worked and labor force participation among recipients.     

Labor supply responses to the 1990s Japanese tax reforms

The consumption-leisure choice model implies that an exogenous change in tax rates will induce a change in labor supply. This implication is expected to be important to labor supplied by secondary earners under a progressive tax system when spousal income alters effective marginal tax rates. This paper examines labor supply responses to the income tax changes associated with Japanese tax reforms during the 1990s. The results indicate that the hours-of-work elasticity with respect to the net-of-tax rate is 0.8 for married women.     

Simulation Evidence on Theory‐based and Statistical Identification under Volatility Breaks

Beside a priori theoretical assumptions on instantaneous or long‐run effects of structural shocks, sign restrictions have become a prominent means for structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) analysis. Moreover, changes in second order moments of systems of time series can be fruitfully exploited for identification purposes in SVARs. By means of Monte Carlo studies, we examine to what degree theory‐based and statistical identification approaches offer an accurate quantification of the true structural relations in a standard model for monetary policy analysis. Subsequently, we discuss how identifying information from theory‐based and statistical approaches can be combined on the basis of a low‐dimensional empirical model of US monetary policy.     

Household debt and labor market fluctuations

The co-movements of labor productivity with output, total hours, vacancies and unemployment have changed since the mid 1980s. This paper offers an explanation for the sharp break in the fluctuations of labor market variables based on endogenous labor supply decisions following the mortgage market deregulation. We set up a search model with efficient bargaining and financial frictions, in which impatient borrowers can take an amount of credit that cannot exceed a proportion of the expected value of their real estate holdings. When borrowers' equity requirements are low, the impact of a positive technology shock on the marginal utility of consumption is strengthened, which in turn results in lower hours per worker and higher wages in the bargaining process. This shift in labor supply discourages firms from opening vacancies, reducing the impact of the shock on employment. We simulate the effects of an increase in both the loan-to-value ratio and the share of borrowers in total population. Our exercise shows that the response of labor market variables might have been substantially affected by the increase in household leverage in the US in the last twenty years.     

Desired and actual labour supply of unmarried men and women in the Netherlands

Desired and actual working hours of unmarried adults are analyzed. A discrete structural neoclassical model is used to explain desired hours, which depend on gross wage rates, tax and benefit rules, other income, and some background variables. The model takes account of fixed costs of working and of prediction errors in wage rates of nonworkers. Actual hours are explained from desired hours and hours restrictions. Deviations between actual and desired hours are used to identify equations for involuntary unemployment and the lack of part-time jobs. The model is estimated using cross-section data from the Dutch Socio-Economic Panel. We find larger wage elasticities of desired hours of work for women than for men. Involuntary unemployment and a lack of part-time jobs appear to be important sources of hours restrictions. Individuals with (potential) wages below the minimum wage have a significantly larger probability of involuntary unemployment than others.     

Unemployment and liquidity constraints

We present a dynamic framework for the interaction between borrowing (liquidity) constraints and deviations of actual hours from desired hours, both measured by discrete‐valued indicators, and estimate it as a system of dynamic binary and ordered probit models with panel data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. We analyze a household's propensity to be liquidity constrained by means of a dynamic binary probit model. We analyze qualitative aspects of the conditions of employment, namely whether the household head is involuntarily overemployed, voluntarily employed, or involuntarily underemployed or unemployed, by means of a dynamic ordered probit model. We focus on the possible interaction between the two types of constraints. We estimate these models jointly using maximum simulated likelihood, where we allow for individual random effects along with an autoregressive process for the general error term in each equation. A novel feature of our method is that it allows for the random effects to be correlated with regressors in a time‐invariant fashion. Our results provide strong support for the basic theory of constrained behavior and the interaction between liquidity constraints and exogenous constraints on labor supply. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Tax enforcement policies,tax evasion and time allocation

Several studies examine the effect of tax rates on households’ labor supply decisions in attempts to account for observed differences in work hours across countries. Interestingly, these studies fail to consider a fundamental action associated with taxation: tax evasion. This paper introduces, into a general equilibrium model of household labor supply, the possibility that households can evade labor income taxes. We show that the relationship between tax-enforcement policies, the elasticity of substitution between consumption and leisure and the elasticity of substitution between formal and informal work is key to explain formal labor supply in major OECD countries. In a model without informal work, there is a positive relationship between the elasticity of substitution and the tax rate on formal income and people tend to work more. This is the case for the United States, Greece, Finland and the United Kingdom. This relationship becomes negative once informal activities are introduced and the model can explain formal labor supply better in countries where agents work relative less, i.e., in Austria, Denmark, France, Germany, Spain, Norway and Sweden. We also obtain estimates of hours worked in the informal sector for these countries.