Optimal Asset Allocation and Risk Shifting in Money Management

This article investigates a fund manager's risk-taking incentivesinduced by an increasing and convex relationship of fund flowsto relative performance. In a dynamic portfolio choice framework,we show that the ensuing convexities in the manager's objectivegive rise to a finite risk-shifting range over which she gamblesto finish ahead of her benchmark. Such gambling entails eitheran increase or a decrease in the volatility of the manager'sportfolio, depending on her risk tolerance. In the latter case,the manager reduces her holdings of the risky asset despiteits positive risk premium. Our empirical analysis lends supportto the novel predictions of the model.     

外汇储备的战略型资产配置

亚洲金融危机后,许多新兴市场国家和地区开始大量积累外汇储备,导致自由储备水平远远超过国家债务数量。本文指出目前中央银行在巨额外汇储备管理上是低效率的,针对这一问题中央银行可以建立一个更加有效率的外汇储备管理框架——战略型资产配置来管理外汇资产。最后,明确战略型资产配置对于我国外汇储备管理的重要意义,可以在保证基本流动性和安全性的同时,提高外汇资产收益,使外汇储备资产组合更有效率。     

基于偿付能力的寿险资金战略资产配置

保险资金的战略资产配置是基于公司风险偏好,为满足负债和资本回报要求,对保险资金在大类资产上进行长期规划与分配的过程.本文介绍的寿险资金"战略资产配置三维方法论",是以偿付能力为核心风险偏好,在资本市场长期回报均值回归及Cornish-Fisher展开调整的跨周期宏观经济假设基础上,利用马科维茨模型对公司整体的资产组合进...     

The Strategic Implications of Asset and Liability Allocation in the Turkish Banking Industry

This study aims to analyze whether banks' deviation from the mainstream in terms of asset and liability allocation enables them to perform better than their competition. Overall, deviation in the liability structure seems to have a significant impact on performance. In a second regression, the results obtained from the analysis of liability allocation are further examined by focusing on the effects of the deposit base on bank performance. Our analysis brings out the significance of liability allocation and of the effect of deposit strategies as a primary source of funding. The major difference of this study from the existing literature is that we focus primarily on both asset and liability allocation strategies of banks, and we further analyze the components of the liability structure to evaluate the impact of liability deviation on the banking strategy.     

Asset Allocation in Bankruptcy

This paper investigates the consequences of liquidation and reorganization on the allocation and subsequent utilization of assets in bankruptcy. Using the random assignment of judges to bankruptcy cases as a natural experiment that forces some firms into liquidation, we find that the long‐run utilization of assets of liquidated firms is lower relative to assets of reorganized firms. These effects are concentrated in thin markets with few potential users and in areas with low access to finance. These findings suggest that when search frictions are large, liquidation can lead to inefficient allocation of assets in bankruptcy.     

Asset Allocation Via The Conditional First Exit Time or How To Avoid Outliving Your Money

The risk of outliving your money (or shortfall) with low risk, low return investments is very often more serious than the risk of losing money on high risk investments, until quite late in life. A stochastic process model incorporating mortality tables for men and women of retirement age, random rates of return and fixed initial wealth and desired level of consumption provides the analytical tool. A simulation using Canadian mortality tables and rates of return shows that almost all retirees should invest some of their wealth in equity, and for many the optimal allocation is 70–100% equity. The risk of shortfall is surprisingly high for a reasonable range of values of the variables, especially for an allocation of 100% in treasury bills. Women face much greater risk of shortfall than men. The analytical model also permits calculation of the distribution of the bequest and hence allows an individual to trade off changes in shortfall risk against changes in the expected bequest to the heirs.     

Enterprise Risk Management Through Strategic Allocation of Capital

This article presents a conceptual framework for operationalizing strategic enterprise risk management (ERM) in a general firm. We employ a risk‐constrained optimization approach to study the capital allocation decisions under ERM. Given the decision maker's risk appetite, the problem of holistically managing enterprise‐wide hazard, financial, operational, and real project risks is treated by maximizing the expected total return on capital, while trading off risks simultaneously in Value‐at‐Risk type of constraints. This approach explicitly quantifies the concepts of risk appetite and risk prioritization in light of the firm's default and financial distress avoidance reflected in its target credit rating. Our framework also allows the firm to consider a multiperiod planning horizon so that changing business environments can be accounted for. We illustrate the implementation of the framework through a numerical example. As an initial conceptual advancement, our formulation is capable of facilitating more general ERM modeling within a consistent strategic framework, where idiosyncratic variations of firms and different modeling assumptions can be accommodated. Managerial implications are also discussed.     

Efficient Post-Retirement Asset Allocation

Abstract

To examine post-retirement asset allocation, an extension to the classic Markowitz risk-return framework is suggested. Assuming that retirees make constant (real dollar) annual withdrawals from their portfolios, reward and risk measures are defined to be the mean and standard deviation of wealth remaining at end of life. Asset returns and time of death are both treated as random variables. Assuming constant lifetime asset allocation, the risk and reward measures can be evaluated analytically, and an efficient frontier can be determined. Life annuities can be used to extend the left-hand (low-risk) side of the efficient frontier. The desired level of wealth at end of life can be used to choose a desirable portfolio on the efficient frontier. The desirable portfolio strongly depends on the withdrawal rate. It is suggested (although not proven) that asset allocations strategies that vary with age do not add efficiency in this model, and asset allocation strategies that vary with wealth can add efficiency.     

Management of Portfolio Depletion Risk through Optimal Life Cycle Asset Allocation

Members of defined contribution (DC) pension plans must take on additional responsibilities for their investments, compared to participants in defined benefit (DB) pension plans. The transition from DB to DC plans means that more employees are faced with these responsibilities. We explore the extent to which DC plan members can follow financial strategies that have a high chance of resulting in a retirement scenario that is fairly close to that provided by DB plans. Retirees in DC plans typically must fund spending from accumulated savings. This leads to the risk of depleting these savings, that is, portfolio depletion risk. We analyze the management of this risk through life cycle optimal dynamic asset allocation, including the accumulation and decumulation phases. We pose the asset allocation strategy as an optimal stochastic control problem. Several objective functions are tested and compared. We focus on the risk of portfolio depletion at the terminal date, using such measures as conditional value at risk (CVAR) and probability of ruin. A secondary consideration is the median terminal portfolio value. The control problem is solved using a Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman formulation, based on a parametric model of the financial market. Monte Carlo simulations that use the optimal controls are presented to evaluate the performance metrics. These simulations are based on both the parametric model and bootstrap resampling of 91 years of historical data. The resampling tests suggest that target-based approaches that seek to establish a safety margin of wealth at the end of the decumulation period appear to be superior to strategies that directly attempt to minimize risk measures such as the probability of portfolio depletion or CVAR. The target-based approaches result in a reasonably close approximation to the retirement spending available in a DB plan. There is a small risk of depleting the retiree’s funds, but there is also a good chance of accumulating a buffer that can be used to manage unplanned longevity risk or left as a bequest.     

Strategic Interactions and Portfolio Choice in Money Management: Theory and Evidence

I study portfolio choice of strategic fund managers in the presence of a peer‐based underperformance penalty. While the penalty generates herding behavior, correlated trading among managers is exacerbated when a strategic setting is considered. The equilibrium portfolios are driven by the least restricted manager, who may vary according to the realization of returns. I compare model predictions to evidence from the Colombian pension fund management industry, where six asset managers are in charge of portfolio allocation for the mandatory contributions of the working population. These managers are subject to a peer‐based underperformance penalty, which is known as the minimum return guarantee (MRG). I study trading behavior by managers before and after a change in the strictness of the MRG in June 2007. The evidence suggests that a tighter MRG results in more trading in the direction of peers, a behavior that is more pronounced for underperforming managers. I show that these findings are consistent with the qualitative and quantitative predictions of the theoretical model.     

基于货币供应周期的股市周期拐点判别与资产配置研究

本文拟以中国A股市场为研究对象,尝试找出中国货币周期转换与股市周期之间的关联,考察货币周期不同阶段中股票市场的表现与行业轮动规律,并在此基础上给出适宜的资产配置策略。     

Dynamic Asset Allocation under Inflation

We develop a simple framework for analyzing a finite-horizon investor's asset allocation problem under inflation when only nominal assets are available. The investor's optimal investment strategy and indirect utility are given in simple closed form. Hedge demands depend on the investor's horizon and risk aversion and on the maturities of the bonds included in the portfolio. When short positions are precluded, the optimal strategy consists of investments in cash, equity, and a single nominal bond with optimally chosen maturity. Both the optimal stock–bond mix and the optimal bond maturity depend on the investor's horizon and risk aversion.     

Socialism and Intrafirm Asset Allocation

We rely on a survey of Swiss firms to document deviation from first‐best for reasons of internal ‘fairness’ when allocating resources. This ‘socialist’ practice is more widespread in smaller than in larger firms. It ignores the reputation and past performance of the managers who apply for funding, but takes into account their hierarchical position and their past use of resources. Socialism is only partially explained by concerns about empire building and managerial optimism, and it is not meant to benefit shareholders.     

Jumps and Dynamic Asset Allocation

This paper analyzes the optimal dynamic asset allocation problem in economies with infrequent events and where the investment opportunities are stochastic and predictable. Analytical approximations are obtained, with which a thorough comparative study is performed on the impacts of jumps upon the dynamic decision. The model is then calibrated to the U.S. equity market. The comparative analysis and the calibration exercise both show that jump risk not only makes the investor's allocation more conservative overall but also makes her dynamic portfolio rebalancing less dramatic over time.     

资产配置中的投资时钟模型

投资时钟模型是将资产配置和行业策略同经济周期相联系的资产配置方法。经济周期划分为衰退、复苏、过热和滞胀四个阶段,各阶段都对应着收益表现超过一般市场的某一特定资产类别:债券、股票、大宗商品和现金。投资时钟模型还可以帮助资产配置的行业选择。在经济复苏阶段,投资于成长性的周期性行业;在过热阶段,投资于价值性的周期性行业;在滞胀时期,投资于价值型的防御性行业;在衰退时期,投资于成长性的防御性行业。     

International Asset Allocation With Regime Shifts

Correlations between international equity market returns tendto increase in highly volatile bear markets, which has led someto doubt the benefits of international diversification. Thisarticle solves the dynamic portfolio choice problem of a U.S.investor faced with a time-varying investment opportunity setmodeled using a regime-switching process which may be characterizedby correlations and volatilities that increase in bad times.International diversification is still valuable with regimechanges and currency hedging imparts further benefit. The costsof ignoring the regimes are small for all-equity portfoliosbut increase when a conditionally risk-free asset can be held.     

Asset Allocation by Variance Sensitivity Analysis

This article provides a solution to the curse of dimensionalityassociated to multivariate generalized autoregressive conditionallyheteroskedastic (GARCH) estimation. We work with univariateportfolio GARCH models and show how the multivariate dimensionof the portfolio allocation problem may be recovered from theunivariate approach. The main tool we use is "variance sensitivityanalysis," the change in the portfolio variance induced by aninfinitesimal change in the portfolio allocation. We suggesta computationally feasible method to find minimum variance portfoliosand estimate full variance-covariance matrices. An applicationto real data portfolios implements our methodology and comparesits performance against that of selected popular alternatives.     

Dynamic Asset Allocation with Event Risk

Major events often trigger abrupt changes in stock prices and volatility. We study the implications of jumps in prices and volatility on investment strategies. Using the event-risk framework of Duffie, Pan, and Singleton (2000), we provide analytical solutions to the optimal portfolio problem. Event risk dramatically affects the optimal strategy. An investor facing event risk is less willing to take leveraged or short positions. The investor acts as if some portion of his wealth may become illiquid and the optimal strategy blends both dynamic and buy-and-hold strategies. Jumps in prices and volatility both have important effects.