基于模糊综合评价的工程项目投标决策研究

通过对参与工程项目的投标人在投标决策时应考虑的因素进行分析,文章建立了评价各影响因素的指标体系和基于模糊综合评价的模型,并结合实例分析证实了此方法在施工企业进行投标决策中的可行性。     

TMT Potency and Strategic Decision‐Making in High Technology Firms

Confidence is necessary for effective top management team (TMT) functioning, however overconfidence or hubris has been associated with poor outcomes. Researchers have struggled to untangle questions of how much confidence is functional and whether there are different forms of confidence. Using data from a field study of 54 public high‐technology firms we provide a richer understanding of the complex influence of one type of confidence, TMT potency on strategic decision‐making. Specifically, using a field study of TMTs of 54 public high technology firms we find potency at least partially mediates the relationship between TMT experience and knowledge, TMT interaction process, and strategic decision speed. Post‐hoc analysis of high potency teams suggests that potency may be either functional – leading to high performance, or dysfunctional – resulting in low performance. Potency appears to be a multi‐faceted construct consisting of both level and domain boundedness. We offer propositions that begin to untangle the origins of functional versus dysfunctional potency or hubris.     

公路建设中路线方案多属性决策方法的研究

路线方案的比选是公路建设项目前期的一项重要工作,直接影响着项目建设能否达到预期的目标以及项目投入运营中的使用效果,如行车的安全性、舒适性、快捷性等。进行路线方案比选时,要考虑路线的线形合理性、对周边地区环境影响,项目经济效益、施工难易等多种因素对影响。本文在分析路线方案比选复杂性的基础上,对多种决策方法进行对比,选择TOPSIS法作为路线方案的决策方法。算例的结果表明该方法应用的可行性和有效性。     

Context Variables as Cognitive Effort Modulators in Decision Making Using an Alternative-Based Processing Strategy

This paper examines how a number of decision context variables affect the cognitive effort required for decision making on dichotomical choice tasks. Subjects are trained in the use of a strategy in which information processing is alternative-based. The correlation between the attributes of the alternatives and the mean and variance of the difference between the attributes is manipulated. The results show that the effort needed for decision making increases as the mean of the differences decreases. Yet, neither the variance of the differences nor the correlation context affect the decision making effort in this type of strategies.     

基于投影模型的不确定语言型多属性决策方法及应用

研究了不确定语言型多属性决策评价结果与决策者对方案的偏好信息之间存在偏差的问题,提出了基于投影模型的不确定多属性决策方法。该方法通过建立与区间型语言标度对应的术语指标矩阵,及方案综合属性值与决策者主观偏好值之间的投影模型,确定属性的权重,然后运用加权法得到方案的综合属性值,利用已有的可能度矩阵排序公式得到决策方案的排序。最后,通过算例对该方法的实用性和有效性进行了说明。     

The Challenges of March and Simon’s Organizations: Introduction to the Special Issue

March and Simon pushed the study of organizations into the mainstream of academic writing about business. We outline central ideas discussed by the book and its pioneering role in studying cognitive processes underlying boundedly rational human beings. Through their representational approach, March and Simon defined and explicated key mechanisms of individual and organizational decision‐making. Organizations provided an empirically‐based understanding of human behavior and coordination, and set up core scientific criteria for creating the cumulative body of management and organization research. We summarize the papers presented in this special issue and point out contributions by Organizations that have been understated, forgotten or ignored in management studies.     

多目标决策在项目投资决策中的应用

项目投资的评价是一个多因素、多目标的决策问题.现有的投资决策无论从评价指标、还是从评价方法来看,都存在很大的问题.从传统投资决策方法出发,结合项目投资的特点,对现行决策方法进行了改进,综合考虑了收益和风险的影响,应用了多目标决策分析的原理和方法,提出了投资多目标决策模型,较好地为决策者正确地选择投资提供了理论依据和方法.     

论企业增长机会的价值评估

本文对增长机会的三种价值评估工具,逐一做了简单介绍和评述,最后探讨如何将净现值、实物期权、决策分析,三种分析工具综合运,用来评估一项增长机会的价值。     

基于TOPSIS方法的新产品开发决策问题研究

新产品开发已经成为企业获取竞争优势的手段,新产品开发决策问题是新产品开发的重要内容。本文以产品所含要素特征与企业要素禀赋的TOPSIS方法为基础,采用定性分析与定量分析相结合的分析方法,为企业产品决策提供科学、高效和量化的手段。     

公司创业新事业投资决策成败案例对比

聚焦于公司创业过程中的新事业投资决策过程,试图通过对比成败案例,揭示其决策过程的规律,尤其注重刻画创业决策者主体的决策表现及其特征。以口语回溯法和半结构化访谈相结合的手段,调研了13家企业负责人,遴选出两家成功企业与两家失败企业,作为案例采写的主要对象。通过详细的案例描述与对比,研究结果发现:①创业警觉性、以往知识和创新性认知风格是机会识别的关键性要素;②成功决策需兼顾创业机会的可行性和盈利性,决策者应更多采用变革式的新事业投资机会;③成功决策有赖于决策者高度内化的、富有洞察力的预见性,一旦有效识别机会,便会快速付诸于执行,果断排斥外在情境的干扰。     

Entrepreneurial by Design: How Organizational Design Affects Family and Non‐family Firms’ Opportunity Exploitation

Opportunity exploitation is a key aspect of the corporate entrepreneurship process and is particularly important to maintain a family firm through multiple generations. Drawing on an organizational design perspective, we investigate opportunity exploitation in family versus non‐family firms. The empirical analyses on survey data from a sample of 224 Italian firms reveal that family firms exploit significantly fewer opportunities than non‐family firms, and this result is fully mediated by the organization of their TMT. Our findings show that how family firms organize is crucial for opportunity exploitation, thus extending and enriching prior corporate entrepreneurship research, highlighting the importance of bringing an organizational design perspective to corporate entrepreneurship and family business studies.     

Time and the Entrepreneurial Journey: The Problems and Promise of Studying Entrepreneurship as a Process

We examine the growing disconnect between the process‐oriented conception of entrepreneurship taught in the classroom and theorized about in premier journals and the variance‐oriented conception of entrepreneurship that characterizes empirical studies of the phenomenon. We propose that a shift in inquiry from entrepreneurship as an act to entrepreneurship as a journey could facilitate process‐oriented research by initiating a dialogue about the nature of the entrepreneurial journey, when it has begun and ended, whether it might be productively subdivided into variables or events, and what if anything remains constant throughout the process. Finally, we propose that a clearer understanding of the entrepreneurial journey is necessary to distinguish the field horizontally from research on creativity and strategy, and vertically from research on more practical business functions or more abstract systems‐level concepts.     

Stakeholders’ Attributes,Behaviors, and Decision‐Making Strategies in Construction Projects: Importance and Correlations in Practice

Project managers need to make decisions on how to balance competing claims between the different stakeholders in projects. Previous studies have suggested that the choice of decision‐making strategies is highly related to stakeholders’ attributes and behaviors in practice; however, limited studies have been conducted in the construction field to analyze the importance of stakeholders’ attributes, behaviors, and decision‐making strategies, and validate the correlations between the factors and decision‐making strategies. To analyze the underlying meanings of stakeholders’ attributes, behaviors, and decision‐making strategies from the practitioners’ perspectives, and indicate the influence of stakeholder‐related factors on decision‐making strategies, an interview, questionnaire survey, and case study were adopted. Empirical studies suggest that three stakeholder attributes (power, urgency, and proximity), and four types of stakeholder behaviors (cooperative potential, competitive threat, opposite position, and neutral attitude) are perceived by the practitioners as important to dealing with stakeholder claims. Depending on stakeholders’ salience levels and behavior types, strategies of defense, compromise, or concession/adaptation are chosen and applied by project managers in practice. The findings can help project managers to proactively understand stakeholder performance, place emphasis on particular attributes and behaviors, and formulate appropriate schemes under different circumstances.     

Selecting the Good vs. Rejecting the Bad: Regulatory Focus Effects on Staffing Decision Making

Although staffing decisions are typically conceptualized as motivated by the desire to select the best employees, many managers and human resources practitioners may be more concerned with avoiding bad hires. Regulatory focus theory provides a rich and well‐developed framework for understanding how prevention and promotion orientations shape judgments and decisions. This work is the first to examine this theory's implications for understanding staffing, and it illustrates how these fundamental underlying motivations alter the salience of costs and benefits associated with staffing practices, as well as subjective judgments about individual applicants. Regulatory focus is a function of situational factors as well as individual differences, and predominant motivational orientations also vary with business cycles. This model therefore offers broad cross‐level explanatory power for understanding dynamic factors influencing staffing, as well as a novel perspective on ways to improve the quality of staffing decision making. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

多目标群体层次决策中确定权重的一种方法

应用几何平均和最小方差等概念，探讨了多目标群体层次决策中考虑决策者水平的权重确定方法，并用实例给予了验证。     

基于变异系数的可拓模型在配送中心选址中的应用

根据可拓理论的基本方法，选取影响物流配送中心选址的主要因素组成影响因素集，建立物流配送中心选址决策模型。在确定影响因素权重时，选用了变异系数法，避免了人为确定权重的主观性和局限性．增强了决策结果的客观性和准确性，将该模型应用到一个实例当中，证明了该模型的可行性。     

基于模糊决策的离散制造业信息化评价及应用

文章结合离散制造业生产工艺的特点及离散制造业实施ERP的重点,论述了实施ERP之前对企业信息化程度评估的重要性,综合国家信息化测评中心的基本指标和效能指标提出了评价离散制造企业信息化的指标体系,通过AHP法与模糊决策相结合的方法对指标体系进行综合评判,并以实例进行计算,得到的结果与调研结果相一致,证明了所建立的指标体系的可行性。     

基于贝叶斯方法的项目投资风险决策

由于投资受政策、社会环境、经济环境、管理水平等诸多因素的制约，因而投资成败的不确定性极大。本文将贝叶斯决策理论应用于投资决策中，建立了投资贝叶斯风险决策模型，分析了决策模型中各种参数的确定方法，并阐述了该模型对降低决策风险的作用。在风险决策中，信息的价值可以定量，运用贝叶斯公式分析在风险决策中增大信息量，有益于降低决策风险。     

The New Venture Decision: An Analysis Based on the GEM Project Database

The new venture decision is a crucial stage in the process of creating a new business and is influenced by a series of social, demographic, cultural and economic factors, amongst others. These factors have been the subject of several studies, though there is still no widely accepted agreement on exactly how they affect the decision to create a new enterprise. This study will provide evidence on which variables affect the new venture decision, as well as the extent of their influence based on the analysis of a sample of 7524 cases, using information obtained via the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor 2001 Project. At the same time, we provide evidence to show that there are differences in the way these variables affect new ventures born out of need or out of opportunity.     

基于区间二型模糊集的VIKOR多属性决策方法研究

针对传统VIKOR方法不能处理不确定语言信息的缺陷,本文在VIKOR方法的基础上提出了一种基于区间二型模糊的VIKOR扩展方法用于解决多属性决策问题。首先介绍了区间二型模糊的概念、运算法则,接着定义了一种新的计算区间二型模糊集之间的距离公式,在此基础上提出基于区间二型模糊的VIKOR扩展方法。最后,通过一个算例说明该方法的有效性和合理性。