Elections,Information, and State‐Dependent Candidate Quality

The quality of political candidates often depends on the current state of the world, for example because their personal characteristics are more valuable in some situations than in others. We explore the implications of state‐dependent candidate quality in a model of electoral competition where voters are uncertain about the state. Candidates are fully informed and completely office‐motivated. With a reasonable restriction on voters' beliefs, an equilibrium where candidates' positions reveal the true state does not exist. Nonrevealing equilibria always exist. Some main findings are that candidates' positions can diverge more in equilibrium when they differ more in state‐dependent quality and when the electorate is less well informed.     

Optimal Capital Income Taxation with Means‐tested Benefits

This paper studies the interaction between capital income taxation and a means‐tested age pension. Our results document that the existence of a social insurance program financed from general revenue puts an upward pressure on the optimal tax rate. We also show that there is a negative relation between taper (benefit‐reduction) and optimal capital income tax rates. The potential welfare gain from optimizing capital taxation in the presence of a universal retirement transfer system is relatively higher. However, when the transfer is substantially means tested, the gain is lower, because the means test effectively operates as a tax on retirement capital.     

Optimal Income Taxation With Quasi-Linear Preferences Revisited

Properties of the optimal income tax for quasi-linear in leisure preferences are studied. With utilitarian or maxi-min objectives, closed-form solutions are obtained. Bunching occurs over intervals where the second-order incentive condition is binding. Whether this occurs depends solely on the skill distribution. The patterns of consumption and tax rates in the nonbunched range are independent of whether the second-order incentive constraints are binding. Bunching at the bottom can also occur if a non-negative constraint on incomes is binding for some households. The pattern of marginal tax rates depends on the skill distribution and whether it is truncated.     

Optimal Nonlinear Income Taxation and Heterogeneous Preferences

An attempt is made to find a nonlinear optimal income taxation structure for the Japanese income taxation system, assuming that individuals have heterogeneous preferences between income and leisure. Attention is paid to the horizontal equity considerations and the implications for income as distinguished between skilled and unskilled labour.
JEL Classification Numbers: H20, H55, I31.     

动态激励与最优医保支付方式

本文构建医院、患者、医保机构三方信息不对称条件下的重复博弈模型,研究了医保机构对医院的最优支付方式(最优价格管制)及其决定因素,研究发现:(1)无论医保机构实行预付制或后付制,为激励医院诚实诊疗,最优价格管制应保证医院获得正利润。(2)最优预付制价格可以得到显式解且形式简单,而有效规避医院道德风险的后付制价格组合则依赖于医保机构目标函数、患者收入分布的具体形式。(3)若患者自付比例足够低,则预付制优于后付制;若治疗成本随疾病严重程度变化足够大或医院不重视未来收益,则后付制优于预付制。模型解释了中国与发达国家医保支付方式改革中的几个标准化事实,并提示了我国当前实施医保预付制应注意的一些要点。     

不对称信息、双边激励与最佳特许经营合约

特许经营当中存在委托代理问题,当市场需求受到双方广告努力水平的影响时,便有可能出现特许方和加盟商的双边道德风险.本文基于委托代理理论,在假设受许人具有私人成本信息的情况下,分析特许权使用费率的最优特许合约特征.研究表明,在完全信息条件下,最优的特许合约意味着双方收益的比取决于他们各自的广告有效性,一方收益随着对方广告有效性的提高而增加;当受许人存在私人成本信息时,最优特许合约使得广告有效性更高的一方获得较高收益.     

Optimal Subsidization of Business Start‐Ups

This paper studies efficient allocation of resources in an economy in which agents are initially heterogeneous with regard to their wealth levels and whether they have productive ideas or not. An agent with an idea can start a business that generates random returns. Agents have private information about (1) their initial types, (2) how they allocate their resources between consumption and investment, and (3) the realized returns. I show that, under informational frictions, a society that targets productive efficiency should subsidize poor agents with ideas, and choose the amount and timing of subsidies carefully in order to ensure that other agents do not mimic poor agents with ideas and receive subsidies. Then, I provide an implementation of the start‐up subsidies in a market framework that resembles the U.S. Small Business Administration's Business Loan Program.     

Optimal Drug Policy in Low‐Income Neighborhoods

The control of drug activity currently favors supply‐side policies: drug suppliers in the United States face a higher arrest rate and longer sentences than demanders. We construct a simple model of drug activity with search and entry frictions in labor and drug markets. Our calibration analysis suggests a strong “dealer replacement effect.”  As a result, given a variety of community objectives, it is beneficial to lower supplier arrests and raise the demand arrest rate from current values. A 10% shift from supply‐side to demand‐side arrests can reduce the population of potential drug dealers by 22–25,000 and raise aggregate local income by $380–$400 million, at 2002 prices.     

Optimal fiscal policy in sunspot‐driven oligopolistic economies

Economies with oligopolistic markets are prone to inefficient sunspot fluctuations triggered by autonomous changes in firms equilibrium conjectures. A well‐designed taxation‐subsidization scheme can eliminate these fluctuations by coordinating firms in each sector on a single equilibrium, left unaffected. The optimal taxation scheme must select the number of active firms that makes the best trade‐off (in terms of consumer welfare) between the markup and the scale inefficiency distortions. Implementing such stabilization policy leads to significant welfare gains, attributable to an “efficient stabilization effect,” typically ignored in usual computations of the welfare costs of fluctuations.     

Optimal Monetary Policy in OLG Models with Long‐Lived Agents: A Note

This note reexamines Crettez, Michel, and Wigniolle ( 2002 ), who studied a two‐period overlapping generations model with cash‐in‐advance constraints and showed that a combination of saving tax and monetary policy involving positive nominal interest rates could achieve the first‐best allocation. The note shows that their result does not hold if agents live for three periods. The implementation of the first best requires the Friedman rule. If agents are long‐lived, saving tax cannot offset a distortion caused by the positive nominal interest rate.     

Optimal Investment and Financial Strategies under Tax‐Rate Uncertainty

Abstract. In this paper, we apply a real‐option model to study the effects of tax‐rate uncertainty on a firm's decision. In doing so, we depart from the relevant literature, which focuses on fully equity‐financed investment projects. By letting a representative firm borrow optimally, we show that debt finance not only encourages investment activities but can also substantially mitigate the effect of tax‐rate uncertainty on investment timing.     

Model Uncertainty, Optimal Monetary Policy and the Preferences of the Fed

Monetary policy in the US is characterized by a substantial degree of inertia. While in principle this may well be the outcome of an optimizing central bank behaviour, the ability of any derived policy rule to match the data relies on so large weights for interest rate smoothing into policy makers' preferences as to be theoretically flawed. In this paper we investigate whether such a puzzle can be interpreted as resulting from the concern of monetary authorities for potential misspecifications of the macroeconomic dynamics. Accordingly, we propose a novel thick modelling approach that incorporates model uncertainty into the identification of central bank's preferences. The thick robust policy rule shows the kind of smoothness observed in the data without resorting to implausible values for the preference parameters.     

企业晋升公平激励与优化对策研究

我国企业晋升制度不健全、监督机制不完善、晋升文化扭曲等原因导致了我国企业晋升激励中存在性别歧视、玻璃天花板、看重关系等问题。企业要构建基于组织公平的晋升激励模型,并从培育正确的组织公平文化,不断完善晋升程序,选择和培训合适的晋升决策者,帮助员工树立正确的晋升观念,扩展我国企业晋升激励路径等五个方面保障企业晋升的公平激励效果。     

Sustainability with Uncertain Future Preferences

A feature of the sustainability problem is that the preferences of future generations are uncertain. In this paper, we put forward a fairness-based definition of sustainability that takes this uncertainty into account. We analyze the implications of this definition in the context of a model of project evaluation. We show that our definition encompasses the concepts of non-declining welfare and of weak and strong sustainability. Furthermore, we show that preference uncertainty has a substantial influence on the implications of sustainability. We are indebted to two anonymous referees whose comments helped considerably to improve the paper. All remaining errors are ours.     

Public Policy with Endogenous Preferences

Public policy may influence norms and preferences. By altering the payoffs associated with different preferences, public policy may influence the distribution of these preferences in the population. Such interdependence between policy and preferences may limit (or enhance) the effectiveness of different policies. We demonstrate this idea with a simple model of subsidizing contributions to a public good. While the short‐run effect of such a subsidy will be an increase in the overall contribution, the subsidy triggers an endogenous preference change that results in a lower level of contribution to the public good, despite the explicit monetary incentives to raise that level.     

On the Evolution of Pareto‐Optimal Behavior in Repeated Coordination Problems

I characterize the asymptotic behavior of a society facing a repeated‐common‐interest game. In this society, new individuals enter to replace their “parents” at random times. Each entrant has possibly different beliefs about others' behavior than his or her predecessor. A self‐confirming equilibrium (SCE) belief process describes an evolution of beliefs in this society consistent with a self‐confirming equilibrium of the repeated game. The main result shows that for any common‐interest game, the Pareto‐dominant equilibrium is a globally absorbing state of the behavioral dynamics when the SCE beliefs of new entrants satisfy certain independence and full‐support properties. This result does not involve either of the usual assumptions of myopia or large inertia common in evolutionary models, nor is this result possible if only Nash rather than self‐confirming equilibria are considered.     

Optimal monetary policy: is price‐level targeting the next step?

We examine whether inflation targeting should be regarded as optimal. Targeting inflation implies (undesirably) that price level variance tends to infinity: we produce some evidence from both a representative agent model and a long‐used forecasting model that, once an endogenous indexation response is allowed for, price level targeting imposes no extra costs of macro variability, indeed gives significant gains.     

Optimal price‐level drift under commitment in the canonical New Keynesian model

Abstract In both the canonical and many extended versions of the New Keynesian model, optimal monetary policy under commitment implies price‐level stationarity as long as expectations are rational. We show that this is no longer the case if the central bank and private agents make decisions before observing current shocks. The optimal amount of price‐level drift in response to unexpected innovations to inflation is quantitatively important. This result has important implications for monetary policy, including the design of the optimal loss function for the central bank if it cannot commit to its future policies.