FIRM SIZE AND STOCK RETURNS: A QUANTITATIVE SURVEY

Firm size is commonly used in numerous empirical asset pricing models as a determinant of expected stock returns. Yet there is little consensus over the magnitude and stability of the size premium. In fact, some researchers even question whether firm size should be used as a pricing factor. We collect 1746 estimates of the slope coefficients capturing the association between firm size and stock returns reported in 102 published studies and conduct the first meta‐analysis on the size premium. We find evidence of a strong bias toward publishing statistically significant negative slope coefficients. After correcting for the bias, we find that the literature implies a difference in annual stock returns on the smallest and the largest New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) market capitalization quintiles of 1.72%. For the time periods covered in the sampled articles, we find that the size premium was larger in earlier years and that the intensity of publication bias has been decreasing over time.     

REAL OPTIONS AND PATENT DAMAGES: THE LEGAL TREATMENT OF NON-INFRINGING ALTERNATIVES, AND INCENTIVES TO INNOVATE

Abstract.  Patent litigation has become an increasingly important consideration in business strategy. Damage awards in patent litigation are supposed to compensate the patent owner for economic harm created by infringement and are therefore important for protecting returns to innovation. We analyze the effects that a recent court decision in the United States, called Grain Processing , has had on the incentives of potential infringers to infringe and innovators to innovate. We find that Grain Processing has decreased the expected value of damages awards in patent cases by conferring a 'free option' on infringers. Grain Processing also concluded that the patent owner in the case did not suffer lost profits due to the infringement because the infringer would have adopted an (inferior) non-infringing technology had it not infringed. We demonstrate that this conclusion is inconsistent with standard economic models.     

PITFALLS IN CROSS‐SECTION STUDIES WITH INTEGRATED REGRESSORS: A SURVEY AND NEW DEVELOPMENTS

In cross‐section studies, if the dependent variable is I(0) but the regressor is I(1), the true slope must be zero in the resulting “unbalanced regression.” A spuriously significant relationship may be found in large cross‐sections, however, if the integrated regressor is related to a stationary variable that enters the DGP but is omitted from the regression. The solution is to search for the related stationary variable, in some cases the first difference of the integrated regressor, in other cases, a categorical variable that can take on limited number of values which depend on the integrated variable. We present an extensive survey, new developments, and applications particularly in finance.     

POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE,SAVING, CAPITAL FLOWS AND THE REAL EXCHANGE RATE: A SURVEY OF THE LITERATURE

Abstract This paper surveys the existing literature on the effects of population age structure on saving, capital flows and the real exchange rate. We build on previous surveys of age structure and saving behaviour by including extensive discussion of international linkages, specifically the impact on capital flows and real exchange rates. We also point to unresolved issues that need to be addressed given that population aging has serious policy implications in the developed economies these days.     

REAL‐TIME DATA AND FISCAL POLICY ANALYSIS: A SURVEY OF THE LITERATURE

This paper surveys the empirical research on fiscal policy analysis based on real‐time data. This literature can be broadly divided into four groups that focus on: (1) the statistical properties of revisions in fiscal data; (2) the political and institutional determinants of projection errors by governments; (3) the reaction of fiscal policies to the business cycle and (4) the use of real‐time fiscal data in structural vector autoregression (VAR) models. It emerges that, first, fiscal revisions are large and initial releases are biased estimates of final values. Secondly, strong fiscal rules and institutions lead to more accurate releases of fiscal data and smaller deviations of fiscal outcomes from government plans. Thirdly, the cyclical stance of fiscal policies is estimated to be more ‘counter‐cyclical’ when real‐time data are used instead of ex post data. Fourthly, real‐time data can be useful for the identification of fiscal shocks. Finally, it is shown that existing real‐time fiscal data sets cover only a limited number of countries and variables. For example, real‐time data for developing countries are generally unavailable. In addition, real‐time data on European countries are often missing, especially with respect to government revenues and expenditures. Therefore, more work is needed in this field.     

STOCK‐FLOW INTERACTIONS,DISEQUILIBRIUM MACROECONOMICS AND THE ROLE OF ECONOMIC POLICY

This paper presents the ‘KMGT’ (Keynes–Metzler–Goodwin–Tobin) portfolio model and studies its stability properties. The approach to macrodynamic modelling taken here extends the KMG model of Chiarella and Flaschel (2000) , focusing in particular on the incorporation of financial markets and policy issues. The original KMG model considered three asset markets (equities, bonds and money) but depicted them in a rudimentary way so that they had little influence on the real side of the model. The only financial market influencing the real side of the economy was the money market (via an LM curve theory of interest). Here Tobin's portfolio choice theory models the demand for each asset in such a way that the total amount of assets that households want to hold equals their net wealth, which is a stock constraint attached to portfolio choice. There is also a flow constraint, that the net amount of assets accumulated (liabilities issued) by one sector must equal its net savings (expenditures). The Tobinian macroeconomic portfolio approach characterizes the potential for financial market instability, focusing on the interconnectedness of all three markets. The paper goes on to study the potential for labour market and fiscal policies to stabilize unstable macroeconomies.     

THE DECADES‐LONG DISPUTE OVER SCALE EFFECTS IN THE THEORY OF ECONOMIC GROWTH

The so‐called “new growth theory” is characterized by the now Nobel Prize winning insight that ideas are a nonrival input to and output from endogenous investment in innovation. Nonrivalry implies increasing returns to scale, but this also unintentionally creates an empirically disputed scale effect that a growing population implies an ever‐increasing growth rate. Empirical evidence supports fully‐endogenous growth without scale effects, but theoretical issues sustain the decades‐long dispute over exactly how to negate the scale effect. This article surveys theoretical approaches to resolving the scale effect and shows how four generations of endogenous growth theory are defined by the maturing of modeling techniques for constraining increasing returns. The synthesis suggests that the dispute over scale effects is really a narrative about how the powerful application of increasing returns has followed a standard theoretical development pattern. This implies that a fourth generation is now emerging that negates the scale effect while retaining fully‐endogenous growth without relying on assumptions of linearity. Instead, the market response to excessive increasing returns to innovation constrains explosive growth by expanding the market, rather than by a linear assumption. This latest class of endogenous growth models may be the final chapter to resolving the long‐running dispute.     

CROSS‐COUNTRY RANKINGS IN INTERGENERATIONAL MOBILITY: A COMPARISON OF APPROACHES FROM ECONOMICS AND SOCIOLOGY

Abstract This paper summarizes research on the relative level of intergenerational mobility – whether classified by income, education or social class. The literatures on education and income mobility reveal a similar ranking with South America, other developing nations, southern European countries and France tending to have rather limited mobility although the Nordic countries exhibit strong mobility. Estimates of mobility based on social class point to rather different patterns, and we demonstrate that these differences are most likely generated by intergenerational earnings persistence within social classes. The second part of the paper looks for explanations for the differences in earnings and education persistence and finds that mobility is negatively correlated with inequality and the return to education but positively correlated with a nation's education spending.     

DISASTROUS ANTI‐ECONOMICS AND THE ECONOMICS OF DISASTERS

This article surveys and synthesises some of the research on the political economy of natural disasters. While people tend to support government intervention to reduce prices or otherwise aid disaster recovery, research shows that government organisations are often corrupt and ineffective. Further, since people tend to mis‐identify the causes of (for example) gasoline price increases after natural disasters, government intervention after a disaster is likely to do more harm than good.     

LIBERAL ECONOMICS AND THE RISE OF LAISSEZ‐FAIRE ECOLOGY

The shift in thinking about how to manage national economies and economic systems in the 1980s was part of a broader revolution in intellectual thought. This is seen in ecology, where a shift in thinking about how to manage environments took place at the same time. Traditionally, the environment was viewed in determinist (structuralist) terms, as a system which was susceptible to management and manipulation. Ecosystems were thought to evolve through predictable stages, reaching a climax state. From the late 1980s, ecologists became increasingly convinced that ecosystems, like economic systems, are complex. They argued that while human intervention is often necessary, wherever possible it should be replaced with more natural controls, which can often fulfil policy aims as well if not better than deliberate intervention. Like economies, the best ecosystems are those which largely manage themselves.     

MAPPING THE EVOLUTION OF ENERGY‐GROWTH NEXUS: SYNERGIES AND TRADE‐OFFS

The study explores the intellectual structure, development and evolution of energy crisis and economic growth research through bibliometric analysis of research articles on energy‐growth nexus from 2000 to 2017 by using Citespace where Gephi is used to analyse the authors collaboration. The analysis incorporates 27,152 references cited by 344 authors, in 1165 articles and from 330 journals. The results of study quantitatively present the most cited articles, authors, countries, institutions and intellectual structure with data visualization in the knowledge domain of energy‐growth nexus. The study categorizes the major research areas in energy‐growth nexus research as carbon dioxide emission, electricity consumption, heterogeneous Panel, real income, renewable energy and financial development. The study discusses emerging trends which provide the future research fronts and intellectual development within the framework of energy‐growth nexus.     

THE DEBATE ABOUT THE REVIVED BRETTON‐WOODS REGIME: A SURVEY AND EXTENSION OF THE LITERATURE

This paper surveys the literature dealing with the thesis put forward by Dooley, Folkerts‐Landau and Garber (DFG) that the present constellation of global exchange‐rate arrangements constitutes a revived Bretton‐Woods regime. DFG also argue that the revived regime will be sustainable, despite its large global imbalances. While much of the literature generated by DFG's thesis points to specific differences between the earlier regime and revived regime that render the latter unstable, we argue that an underlying similarity between the two regimes renders the revived regime unstable. Specifically, to the extent that the present system constitutes a revived Bretton‐Woods system, it is vulnerable to the same set of destabilizing forces – including asset‐price bubbles and global financial crises – that marked the latter years of the earlier regime, leading to its breakdown. We extend the Markov switching model to examine the relation between global liquidity and commodity prices. We find an evidence of commodity‐price bubbles in both the latter stages of the earlier Bretton‐Woods regime and the revived regime.     

THE INNOVATION‐EMPLOYMENT NEXUS: A CRITICAL SURVEY OF THEORY AND EMPIRICS

Understanding whether technical change is beneficial or detrimental for employment is at the center of the policy debate, especially in phases of economic recession. So far, the effects of innovation – in its manifold declinations and intrinsic complexity – on labor demand have proven to be not unequivocal. This essay critically reviews the role of technical change in shaping employment dynamics at different levels of aggregation. First, it disentangles theoretically the role of different compensation mechanisms through which employment adjusts after an innovation is introduced. Second, it critically presents the most recent empirical evidence on the topic, with a focus on methods and limitations. Finally, it provides an attempt to conceptualize a number of stylized facts and empirical regularities on the innovation‐employment nexus.     

PREDICTING THE COSTS AND BENEFITS OF MEGA‐SPORTING EVENTS: MISJUDGEMENT OF OLYMPIC PROPORTIONS?

The economic benefits of hosting mega-sporting events are often exaggerated. Ex-ante impact studies typically overestimate the gains and underestimate the costs involved. It is therefore difficult to explain in economic terms the intense competition among cities to hold such events.     

THE CAUSAL LINK BETWEEN FINANCIAL INCENTIVES AND WEIGHT LOSS: AN EVIDENCE‐BASED SURVEY OF THE LITERATURE

Obesity and overweight are linked to diseases that cost society a significant amount of resources. While behavior modification can reduce the problem, instigating such lifestyle changes is an uneasy task. One potential way to reduce the problem is through the use of financial incentives. In this survey, we review the available evidence, properly emphasizing studies that credibly yield meaningful estimates of the effect of financial incentives on weight loss. We find that the scientific literature on the subject has not yet satisfactorily settled whether such a mechanism is effective at eliciting the desired behavioral and health outcomes. We therefore advocate a rigorous large‐scale randomized experiment to provide reliable estimates of the effect.     

RISK‐COPING,LAND TENURE AND LAND MARKETS: AN OVERVIEW OF THE LITERATURE

Over the last decades, a significant amount of literature has been published on informal risk‐coping in developing countries. In this paper, we review how informal risk‐coping has been addressed in the land tenure literature from two main perspectives: a first stream of research looks at how customary tenure and communal property perform key informal risk‐coping functions. A second subset of this literature analyses how informal risk‐coping creates land market imperfections through sharecropping or distress sales. The segmentation of the literature results from the Demsetzian property rights framework. Further research on risk‐coping and land tenure would benefit from examining recent work on property regimes.     

THE GROWING INVOLVEMENT OF FOREIGN NGOs IN SETTING POLICY AGENDAS AND POLITICAL DECISION‐MAKING IN AFRICA

Two case studies from Kenya demonstrate the malign impact on policy‐making and political decision‐making of foreign NGOs with single issue agendas. They gain acceptance for their minority views by using financial strength and access to economic and political elites in order to subvert what should be representative democratic processes.     

PRESCRIPTION FOR CONFLICT: WHY THE ALLIANCE BETWEEN THE PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRY AND THE ANTI‐TOBACCO MOVEMENT IS NOT IN THE BEST INTERESTS OF SMOKERS

Large pharmaceutical companies are major funders of anti‐smoking lobby groups. The same firms manufacture the products used in Nicotine Replacement Therapy (NRT) and stand to gain when governments recommend this approach to smoking cessation. There is growing evidence, however, that NRT is less effective than ‘cold turkey’ methods, and, indeed, that it has a number of harmful side effects. Its continued promotion, together with counterproductive anti‐smoking measures, raises serious questions about the influence of special interests over tobacco policy.