冷眼看市

A股B股,到底谁看谁的脸色 中国股市历来有A、B股联动的特点,而2001年这一特点表现得越发淋漓尽致.在这从盛夏开始的历时一百多天的大跌中,A股跌去了股指的30%,B股跌得更深,跌得最深时,跌去了股指的44.77%. 这并不是一种正常情况,A、B股情况不同,基本面、技术面、政策面都有很大的差异,它们应当各有各的独立行情.完全没有必要谁看谁的脸色.B股之所以一跌如瀑,并非B股市场自身缺陷所造成的.     

优化股市政策化解股市失灵

目前我国股市缺乏吸引力源于股市失灵,其特征为市场机制失灵和政府政策失灵共存.股市失灵的真正原因总是归根为政策失灵.化解股市失灵关键是采取积极的态度,不断改革、创新,从根本上消除股市理论失灵,以优化政策资源配置,促进我国股市健康、稳定发展.     

股市向哪里去

送走兔年,迎来龙年。过去的一年,曾经让我们充满想象,对行情充满渴望,但事实证明,过去的一年,是A股市场历史上行情倒数第三的年份。2011年,A股市场扩容的速度一直持续维持在高位、高量。2011年全年,新进入A股交易平台的上市公司数量达279家,新上市公司     

建立经纪人主导的新层次股票市场

本文就新层次股票市场的体制创新提出设想,包括建立一个由经纪人主导并以经纪人为中心的市场,保障经纪人等市场的各参与主体有充分的选择权,有比较完善的竞争机制和退市机制。     

Feedback from Stock Prices to Cash Flows

Feedback from financial market prices to cash flows arises when a firm's nonfinancial stakeholders, for example, its customers, employees, and suppliers, make decisions that are contingent on the information revealed by the price. Complementarities across stakeholders result in cascades, wherein relatively small stock price moves trigger substantial changes in asset values. This paper analyzes the relation between such feedback effects and parameters such as the information cost, the volatility of existing projects, the risk aversion of liquidity suppliers, and the precision of managerial information.     

股指期货与现货市场的关系研究

本文从市场结构、交易执行效率和市场信息传播三个方面,由浅入深地展开了期现货市场关系的梳理和分析。股指期货市场的出现,一是使得原本现货市场单轨运行的市场结构变为了期现货市场双轨运行的新结构,增加了市场稳定性;二是依托期货交易方式的独特机制,大大提高了交易执行效率;三是期货价格也因此包含了更多内容,促进了市场信息的传播与扩散。同时,股指期货的独特设计使得其非常适合在危机条件下充分发挥功能,是一个重要的风险管理工具,已经成为现代资本市场的重要组成部分和基础性的内在稳定机制。     

股市周期的模拟预报

不同于传统股市周期理论，本使用傅里叶谱分析技术来模拟预报股市周期。在说明股市周期运行特征的辨识和季节调整的方法之后，使用四年的数据建立了股市模型。在详细介绍了傅里叶周期分析法之后，检验了其对所建模型预报结果的准确性。     

沉默的螺旋:媒体风吹股市

在今日中国从来没有一个领域像证券市场这样吸引着如此广泛的关注.在全社会的关注中对微观主体监督与宏观话语的"造势",使得财经媒体与证券市场的交错互动成为整个社会舆论系统中最为敏感的部位.     

股票拆分和股票红利原因及其影响

股票拆分是公司调整股票价格的重要方式,而送红股是股利政策中重要的组成部分。公司拆分股票、发放股票股利主要目的在于传递公司业绩良好的信号,以及使股价保持在一个合理的范围内从而更受投资者欢迎。市场对其反应一般都是正向的。股票在公告之后出现了超额收益,而且交易活动增加,股票收益波动性变得更大。但公告之后流动性的变化在理论界并没有达成一致的结论。     

Measuring International Economic Linkages with Stock Market Data

This article develops a new framework for measuring financial and real economic linkages between countries. Using United States and United Kingdom data from 1957 to 1989, we find closer financial linkages after the Bretton Woods currency arrangement was abandoned and Britain suspended exchange controls. In a pairwise application to fifteen countries over a shorter period, we also find that news about future dividend growth is more highly correlated between countries than contemporaneous output measures. This suggests that there are lags in the international transmission of economic shocks and that contemporaneous output correlation may understate the magnitude of integration.     

四小金刚"闹"股市

2003年上半年的中国股市始终游走于"牛"与"熊"之间,4月,初显"牛"形的股市为SARS所累,晚节不保.随后,证监会宣布延长"五一"假期,两大交易所休市至5月11号.临近开市的那几天,关于"红五月"能否到来的讨论在各种报章上随处可见.在这个过程中,银行股一直是被重点推荐持有的对象.     

Market quality changes in the London Stock Market

This paper examines the impact that the introduction of a closing call auction had on market quality at the London Stock Exchange. Using estimates from the partial adjustment with noise model of Amihud and Mendelson [Amihud, Y., Mendelson, H., 1987. Trading mechanisms and stock returns: An empirical investigation. Journal of Finance 42, 533–553] we show that opening and closing market quality improved for participating stocks. When we stratify our sample securities into five groups based on trading activity we find that the least active securities experience the greatest improvements to market quality. A control sample of stocks are not characterized by discernable changes to market quality.     

证券市场也要刮"审计风暴"

2004年审计风暴再次刮起,但在证券市场实践中,政府审计却呈现出日益被边缘化的趋向,为了促进证券市场的健康发展,这种现状必须有所改变。     

Stock Market Volatility and Learning

We show that consumption‐based asset pricing models with time‐separable preferences generate realistic amounts of stock price volatility if one allows for small deviations from rational expectations. Rational investors with subjective beliefs about price behavior optimally learn from past price observations. This imparts momentum and mean reversion into stock prices. The model quantitatively accounts for the volatility of returns, the volatility and persistence of the price‐dividend ratio, and the predictability of long‐horizon returns. It passes a formal statistical test for the overall fit of a set of moments provided one excludes the equity premium.     

IQ and Stock Market Participation

Stock market participation is monotonically related to IQ, controlling for wealth, income, age, and other demographic and occupational information. The high correlation between IQ and participation exists even among the affluent. Supplemental data from siblings, studied with an instrumental variables approach and regressions that control for family effects, demonstrate that IQ's influence on participation extends to females and does not arise from omitted familial and nonfamilial variables. High‐IQ investors are more likely to hold mutual funds and larger numbers of stocks, experience lower risk, and earn higher Sharpe ratios. We discuss implications for policy and finance research.     

股市:"做多中国"

2007年中国股市将经历“大扩容”。股改完成、经济持续增长和海外中国股回归将会导致国内A股市场急速扩张,这将为投资者带来前所未有的投资机遇。2007年“做多中国”的主题不仅是内涵式的,也将是外延式的。