Buyer–Supplier and Supplier–Supplier Alliances: Do They Reinforce or Undermine One Another?

abstract    Previous research has portrayed buyer–supplier and supplier–supplier alliances as important mechanisms to foster learning and exchange efficiencies. Controversy remains, however, as to how these alliances interact. While some propose they reinforce one another (e.g. learning in horizontal ties generates positive spillovers to vertical ties), others propose a negative interplay (e.g. when increasing vertical-tie intensity, suppliers may weaken horizontal ties to avoid retaliation from buyers who wish to preserve bargaining power). We empirically test these competing views using survey data from the Brazilian auto-parts industry. In an attempt at reconciliation, we propose that the positive or negative interaction between vertical and horizontal alliances depends on the level of technological uncertainty of goods exchanged. Vertical ties seem to inhibit horizontal ties when technological uncertainty is low; when technological uncertainty is higher, vertical and horizontal ties do not seem to have any meaningful form of interaction. We discuss implications for theory and practice.     

World Economic Prospects

Overview: A world with higher inflation

• Our world GDP growth forecasts are unchanged this month, at 2.6% for 2017 and 2.9% in 2018. But we expect a sizeable increase in inflation, to 3.3% in 2017 from an estimated 2.8% in 2016, as the effect of higher oil prices feeds through.
• Global indicators continue to point to a pick‐up in activity towards the end of last year, driven by stronger manufacturing activity. The global manufacturing PMI rose to the highest level in almost three years in December, while the composite index – which includes services – was at a 13‐month high.
• World trade should be underpinned by stronger growth in the US (2.3% in 2017 and 2.5% in 2018), bolstered by the anticipated effects of President Trump's expansive fiscal policies. That said, uncertainties around our central forecast are unusually high given the high level of uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration. Encouragingly, there are increasing signs that the tighter labour market is leading to a pick‐up in wage inflation in the US, which will support consumers.
• Given these reflationary trends, we expect two increases in the Federal funds rate this year and US bond yields are likely to continue to rise. The widening of interest rate differentials between the US and the Eurozone will drive the euro down to parity with the US dollar by end‐2017 for the first time since 2002.
• We have revised our Brexit assumptions this month. We now assume that the two‐year period of exit negotiations is followed by a transitional arrangement lasting 2–3 years. This would provide breathing space to negotiate a free trade agreement with the EU.
• Emerging market growth on the whole will improve in 2017 but performance will differ across countries: Russia and Brazil will exit recession, but countries with weak balance of payments positions, high dollar debt and exposure to possible US protectionist actions will be at risk. In China, policymakers are moving to greater emphasis on reducing financial risks and less focus on the 6.5% GDP growth target for 2017. Continued action is also likely to dampen further depreciation of the CNY.

     

Environmental and Firm Level Influences on Inter‐Organizational Trust and SME Performance

We investigate the effects of focal firm knowledge intensity and uncertainty on inter‐organizational trust and subsequent performance of small and medium size enterprises (SMEs). We integrate the trust literature with transaction cost literature as both of these offer partial explanations of the dynamics of inter‐organizational trust in the context of an SME. We propose that knowledge intensity of the focal firm will have a positive relationship while uncertainty will have a negative relationship with inter‐organizational trust in an exchange relationship. Further, we propose a positive relationship between trust and SME performance, which will be contingent on the level of external and internal uncertainty faced by the focal firm. Empirical evidence, based on the survey data of 565 German SMEs, mostly supports our arguments.     

The R&D Investment–Uncertainty Relationship: Do Strategic Rivalry and Firm Size Matter?

This paper uses a real options perspective to augment a standard research and development (R&D) investment model and implement a firm‐level empirical analysis to assess the practical significance of market uncertainty and its interactions with strategic rivalry and firm size. We use a measure of firm‐relevant market uncertainty along with panel data and find that firms invest less in current R&D as uncertainty about market returns increases. The effect of firm‐specific uncertainty on R&D investment is smaller in markets where strategic rivalry is likely to be more intense. Furthermore, holding access to financing constant, the effect of uncertainty on R&D investment is attenuated for large firms. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Antecedents of New Director Social Capital

Prior research shows that firms benefit from the social capital of their boards of directors but has not explored the antecedents of new director social capital. We argue that firms can attract directors with social capital by offering more compensation. We also argue that more complex firms (firms with a greater scale and scope of operations) are more attractive to such directors because of the greater experience and exposure that such directorships provide. Similarly, we argue that firms with high‐status directors on their current boards will be more attractive to directors with social capital. We analyse the social capital of new outside directors added to boards of semiconductor firms between 1993 and 2007. Surprisingly, we find no support for the hypothesis that higher compensation is associated with adding directors with high status or board ties. However, firm complexity is associated with the ability to add new directors who have social capital, and the status of current board members is associated with the ability to add new directors who also have high status.     

Political Tie Heterogeneity and the Impact of Adverse Shocks on Firm Value

Past research has recognized the contingent value of corporate political ties but largely neglects their heterogeneity. Drawing on the political embeddedness perspective and literature on emerging economy political institutions, we develop hypotheses regarding how political networks comprising managerial and government ownership ties may have different valuation effects in the face of adverse political shocks. Examining stock market responses to an unanticipated, high‐profile political event in China, we find a negative valuation effect of managerial ties to municipal government, but an insignificant effect of government ownership ties. Further, companies combining managerial and ownership ties experienced less post‐shock reduction in market value than those holding only managerial political ties. These findings shed light on the values of different configurations of corporate political ties and inform firms of potential ways to manage ubiquitous political hazards in emerging economies.     

Global Engagement and Returns Volatility

This paper finds that a greater reliance on foreign market sales increases the volatility of firms’ stock returns, using high‐frequency data for publicly listed Japanese manufacturing firms over the period 2000–10. The two margins of global engagement we consider, namely, exports and sales via foreign affiliates (horizontal foreign direct investment), have both a positive and economically significant effect on firm‐level volatility. We find, however, that increasing the intensity of sales through foreign affiliates has a stronger effect on volatility than a similar change in export intensity. We also uncover evidence consistent with the notion that firms’ need to use external finance to cover the substantial costs involved in reaching foreign consumers can be an important channel through which firms’ participation in international markets increases their exposure to economic uncertainty.     

Optimal Two‐Part Pricing under Demand Uncertainty

This paper examines the pricing behavior of a risk‐averse monopolistic firm under demand uncertainty. The firm produces a single good at a constant marginal cost. To facilitate sales, the firm uses a two‐part pricing contract that includes a membership fee and a selling price per unit. The good is sold to a continuum of heterogeneous consumers who are subject to a common demand shock. We show that the global and marginal effects of risk aversion are to push the unit price closer to the constant marginal cost and to shrink the market coverage so as to limit the firm’s risk exposure to the demand uncertainty. The more risk‐averse firm as such charges a higher membership fee to consumers. We further show that an increase in the fixed cost of production induces the firm to lower (raise) the unit price, to raise (lower) the membership fee, and to shrink (enlarge) the market coverage under decreasing (increasing) absolute risk aversion. The firm’s optimal two‐part pricing contract, however, is unaffected by changes in the fixed cost under constant absolute risk aversion. Finally, we show that a mean‐preserving‐spread increase in the demand uncertainty induces the firm to lower the unit price, to raise the membership fee, and to shrink the market coverage under either decreasing or constant absolute risk aversion. The firm’s risk preferences as such play a pivotal role in determining the optimal two‐part pricing under demand uncertainty. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Uncertainty,supply risk management and their impact on performance

The purpose of this research is to identify the antecedents of supply risk management performance. Speed consortium benchmarking is used to explore the concepts of supply risk monitoring and mitigation. In addition, a survey yielding 207 responses is used to test our hypothesized antecedents of supply risk management performance. Findings indicate that the transaction cost constructs environmental- and behavioral uncertainty have a negative effect on supply risk management performance. In addition, supply risk mitigation and supply risk management process maturity positively influence supply risk management performance, the latter having the strongest influence. Furthermore, supply risk monitoring, supply risk mitigation and supply risk management process maturity all moderate the effect of environmental uncertainty, whereas only risk monitoring has an influence on the relationship between behavioral uncertainty and supply risk management performance. This research identified not only the antecedents of supply risk management performance, but also the moderating effect of different supply risk management principles on the relation between uncertainty and supply risk management performance. Most importantly, our study shows the relevance of developing general supply risk management structures and capabilities (i.e. supply risk management process maturity) in order to manage supply risks successfully. Our findings indicate that even more important than the proper selection of individual risk monitoring and mitigation strategies is the implementation of a risk management process.     

审计风险成因--基于信息经济学的分析

文章从信息经济学的角度,通过对自然存在的不确定性以及股东和审计人员、管理层与审计人员之间的信息不对称等对审计风险的影响的分析表明,建立和完善审计风险的管理体制,完善审计市场结构、公司与事务所的治理结构,引入必要的激励和约束机制,可以减少交易各方的信息不对称,从而改善审计业务市场的交易效率和效益,降低社会性的审计风险水平。     

The Management of Creative Vision and the Economics of Creative Cycles

This paper proposes a new theory of variability in innovation performance in managerial firms that contract ‘creative vision’. We argue that such firms are prone to ‘creative cycles’ that arise from uncertainty‐induced systemic overshooting that can threaten the firm's financial viability, requiring managers to shift control back to risk‐averse financial controllers. But this creates opportunities for competing firms to engage in bold creative visions, threatening the firm's market viability and inducing control to shift back to newly contracted suppliers of ‘creative vision’. We discuss how this ‘principal‐agent‐agent’ mechanism plays out, the types of uncertainty that drive it, and consider the industry‐level externalities it induces. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Stakeholder pressures and corporate climate change mitigation strategies

Climate change mitigation and its related reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is one of the most important challenges facing society. The major cause of the problem and the key to its solution are GHG‐intensive firms that emit vast amounts of anthropogenic GHG emissions. The study reported herein aims to increase our understanding of the climate change mitigation strategies of these firms, in particular their antecedents and effects. A comprehensive conceptual model is proposed and tested empirically based on a survey of 247 firms that participated in the European Union's Emissions Trading Scheme in the first two trading periods. We find that market pressures for reducing GHG emissions, perceived GHG‐related regulatory uncertainty and environmental strategy focus are important determinants of corporate GHG reduction strategies which, in turn, enhance GHG‐related performance. We also show that the results vary depending on the type of emissions.     

Aggregate volatility expectations and threshold CAPM

We propose a volatility-based capital asset pricing model (V-CAPM) in which asset betas change discretely with respect to changes in investors’ expectations regarding near-term aggregate volatility. Using a novel measure to proxy uncertainty about expected changes in aggregate volatility, i.e. monthly range of the VIX index (RVIX), we find that portfolio betas change significantly when uncertainty about aggregate volatility expectations is beyond a certain threshold level. Due to changes in their market betas, small and value stocks are perceived as riskier than their big and growth counterparts in bad times, when uncertainty about aggregate volatility expectations is high. The proposed model yields a positive and significant market risk premium during periods when investors do not expect significant uncertainty in near-term aggregate volatility. Our findings support a volatility-based time-varying risk explanation.     

An institutional perspective of public policy and network effects in the renewable energy industry: enablers or disablers of entrepreneurial behaviour and innovation?

This study extends theory on the effects of public policies stimulating technology demand and of industry network ties on firm-level entrepreneurial behaviour. We take an institutional perspective to develop a theoretical model examining the mechanisms through which public policies, regulatory uncertainty, and industry network ties affect firm-level entrepreneurial decision-making processes and the ability to introduce highly innovative products and to sustain superior performance. We focus on firm-level effects, which enables the study of the tension between institutional pressures of homogeneity and competitive pressures of heterogeneity for entrepreneurial decision-making processes in environments characterized by policy-induced market demands. To test our hypotheses, we draw on data from a large-scale survey among German renewable energy firms. Our results show that public policies can constrain firm innovativeness and risk-taking behaviour because they steer firms towards a more conservative attitude and discourage the pursuit of high-risk innovation projects. However, firms can counteract these influences and enhance their innovativeness by maintaining close network ties with research associations as we find that innovativeness and a highly innovative product portfolio are key success factors. In summary, these findings provide important implications for the study of public policy effects, industry network ties and entrepreneurial behaviour.     

Evidence of irreversibility in the UK property market

The real options approach to valuation of property investment suggests that various sources of uncertainty about future returns on investment have important effects on irreversible property investment decisions. Our aim in this study has been to examine how investment decisions at three main stages of the property development/investment processes respond to different sources of uncertainty. Based on the methodology developed by Episcopos (1995), the neo-classical proposition of Hartman-Abel that predicts a positive investment-uncertainty relationship is tested against that proposed by the real option theory. It is interesting to note that our empirical findings are generally consistent with the prediction of the real option theory that uncertainty increases the option value to wait for the arrival of new information thus decreasing the current investment activities. In periods of high volatility, we would expect investors in the property market to be more prudent and scale down their investment exposure to market volatility compared with periods of a relatively stable market environment.     

The Foundations of International Business: Cross‐Border Investment Activity and the Balance between Market‐Power and Efficiency Effects

The foundational international business (IB) scholarship grappled with whether multinational enterprises (MNEs) are largely efficiency‐enhancing or market‐power inducing institutions. Contemporary scholarship, however, often associates foreign direct investment (FDI) with efficiency‐enhancing properties and thus neglects the market‐power interpretation of the MNE. Such an imbalance is problematic given that the theoretical and empirical justifications behind the field's embrace of the efficiency interpretation are not fully evident. Instead, both efficiency and market‐power effects are seemingly present in cross‐border investment activity. Based on a comprehensive sample of up to 4,361 cross‐border investments materializing between 1986 and 2010, we present theoretically‐grounded hypotheses with regard to when market‐power effects will tend to dominate efficiency effects. We find that cross‐border investments undertaken by emerging‐market MNEs in both developed and emerging markets tend to involve substantial efficiency effects and minimal market‐power effects when compared with the cross‐border investments undertaken by developed‐country MNEs in both developed and emerging markets.     

From National Service to Global Player: Transforming the Organizational Logic of a Public Broadcaster

We present organizational logics as a meso‐level construct that lies between institutional theory's field‐level logics and the sense‐making activities of individual agents in organizations. We argue that an institutional logic can be operationalized empirically using the concept of a discourse – that is, a coherent symbolic system articulating what constitutes legitimate, reasonable, and effective conduct in, around, and by organizations. An organization may, moreover, be simultaneously exposed to several institutional logics that make up its broader ideational environment. Taking these three observations together enables us to consider an organizational logic as a spatially and temporally localized configuration of diverse discourses. We go on to show how organizational logics were transformed in the Australian Broadcasting Corporation between 1953 and 1999 by examining the changing discourses that appeared in the Corporation's annual reports. We argue that these discourses were modified through three main forms of discursive agency: (1) undertaking acts of ironic accommodation between competing discourses; (2) building chains of equivalence between the potentially contradictory discourses; and (3) reconciling new and old discourses through pragmatic acts of ‘bricolage’. We found that, using these forms of discursive agency, a powerful coalition of actors was able to transform the dominant organizational logic of the ABC from one where the Corporation's initial mission was to serve national interests through public service to one that was ultimately focused on participating in a globalized media market. Finally, we note that discursive resources could be used as the basis for resistance by less powerful agents, although further research is necessary to determine exactly how more powerful and less powerful agents interact around the establishment of an organizational logic.     

Who's the Boss at the Top? A Micro‐Level Analysis of Director Expertise,Status and Conformity Within Boards

In this paper we address how director expertise impacts a director's social status and conformity within the board. Our results, derived from two unique multi‐source datasets of peer ratings on director status and conformity of non‐executive directors from Dutch organizations, indicate that industry‐specific expertise and financial expertise differently impact directors’ social status and influence within the board. We find that directors’ individual performance orientation – the motivation to demonstrate expertise – acts as an important contingency for expertise to increase directors’ status within the board. Additional analyses using archival data and interviews with non‐executive directors substantiate our findings and provide additional insight into the dynamics operating within boards. This study extends existing research on boards of directors and provides unique micro‐level insights into the boardroom dynamics that connect director expertise to director status and conformity within boards.     

World Economic Prospects Monthly

Overview: A recovery in trade

• ? Our world GDP growth forecasts are unchanged this month, at 2.6% for 2017 and 2.9% in 2018. Similarly, our outlook for inflation has remained stable and we expect consumer price inflation to accelerate to 3.3% in 2017 owing to the effect of higher oil prices. Despite the multi‐year highs shown by global surveys, we remain cautious about further upgrades to our growth forecast, as we believe that the they may be overstating the pace of growth .
• ? Global indicators continue to point to a pick‐up in activity, driven by stronger manufacturing. The global manufacturing PMI remained at its highest level in almost three years in January, while the composite index – which includes services – was at a 22‐month high. Underpinned by stronger manufacturing activity, global trade is also recovering, with trade volumes rising a strong 2.8% on the month in November.
• ? After a disappointing 2016, we expect US growth to rise to 2.3% from an estimated 1.6%, bolstered by the anticipated effects of President Trump's expansive fiscal policies. However, uncertainties around our central forecast are unusually high given the major doubts about the new president's policies. The first days of the Trump administration have shown that he does not intend to tone down his rhetoric and we believe there is risk of a general underestimation of the economic risks derived from protectionism and his anti‐immigration stance.
• ? We still expect two increases in the Federal funds rate this year and US bond yields are likely to continue to rise. Despite some recent dollar weakness, the widening of interest rate differential between the US and the Eurozone, where rates are likely to remain unchanged, will drive the euro down to parity with the US dollar by end‐2017.
• ? Emerging market growth overall will improve in 2017, but performance will differ across countries. Countries with weak balance of payments positions, high dollar debt and exposure to possible US protectionist actions will be at risk. Our research shows that Turkey, South Africa and Malaysia are most at risk from potential financial turmoil.

     

Is there a risk–return trade‐off? Evidence from high‐frequency data

This paper examines the intertemporal relation between risk and return for the aggregate stock market using high‐frequency data. We use daily realized, GARCH, implied, and range‐based volatility estimators to determine the existence and significance of a risk–return trade‐off for several stock market indices. We find a positive and statistically significant relation between the conditional mean and conditional volatility of market returns at the daily level. This result is robust to alternative specifications of the volatility process, across different measures of market return and sample periods, and after controlling for macro‐economic variables associated with business cycle fluctuations. We also analyze the risk–return relationship over time using rolling regressions, and find that the strong positive relation persists throughout our sample period. The market risk measures adopted in the paper add power to the analysis by incorporating valuable information, either by taking advantage of high‐frequency intraday data (in the case of realized, GARCH, and range volatility) or by utilizing the market's expectation of future volatility (in the case of implied volatility index). Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.