A shadow distance function decomposition of the environmental Kuznets curve: comparing the South China Sea and the Caribbean

This study decomposes the environmental Kuznets curve for CO₂ into scale, composition and technique effects for a sample of countries in the South China Sea and Caribbean basins, regions at risk of increased exposure to extreme tropical weather and at different developmental stages. Effect variation with respect to population density and investment proportion of GDP show evidence of more effective abatement activities and more appropriate technology in the South China Sea economies. The countries with the highest levels of technical efficiency in the different regions also have the most equal distribution of income and the highest population densities.     

New international evidence on the cyclical behaviour of output: Kuznets swings reconsidered

Spectral analysis is a particularly valuable method for seeking dependences expressed as lags between different magnitudes. Its use in this article was first determined by the search for maximum objectivity in the observation of time series. The possibility of applying it to a large number of series was then examined. This twin requirement resulted from a desire to avoid the criticism generally levelled at statistical studies concerning cyclical movements of the economy. Spectral analysis is based on the theory of stochastic processes. It starts with the core hypothesis that a given time series consists of a large number of sinusoidal components with different frequencies (univariate spectral analysis). It makes it possible to divide a particular category of records into a set of oscillations of different frequencies and then to show the links between the components with the same frequency in the various series examined (cross-spectral or bivariate spectral analysis). It has had limited applications in cliometrics to date. It is used here to determine the frequency of GDP series of several OECD countries. A reminder of the method Sect. 2 is followed by successive examination of the various series chosen, the treatment of these series and the results of spectral analysis Sect. 3. It is then possible as a conclusion to show the prospects of this type of approach and to synthesise a completely new major result for understanding economic dynamics in nineteenth and twentieth centuries, that is to say the existence of a single intermediate cycle with 15–20-year frequency that calls into question or even partially contradicts previous work on economic cycles.      

Inference in semiparametric binary response models with interval data

This paper studies the semiparametric binary response model with interval data investigated by Manski and Tamer (2002). In this partially identified model, we propose a new estimator based on MT’s modified maximum score (MMS) method by introducing density weights to the objective function, which allows us to develop asymptotic properties of the proposed set estimator for inference. We show that the density-weighted MMS estimator converges at a nearly cube-root-n rate. We propose an asymptotically valid inference procedure for the identified region based on subsampling. Monte Carlo experiments provide supports to our inference procedure.     

Recovery of hidden information from stock price data: A semiparametric approach

This paper proposes a new methodology for measuring announcement effect on stock returns. This methodology requires no prior specification of the event day, event, and estimation windows, and therefore is a generalization of the traditional event study methodology. The dummy variable, which indicates whether the event occurred or not, is treated as missing. The unconditional probability of abnormal return is estimated by the EM algorithm. The probability that announcement is effective and the average announcement effect are estimated by the Gibbs sampler. How the method works is demonstrated on simulated data and IBM stock price returns.     

Capital mobility, foreign aid, and openness: further panel data evidence from sub-Saharan Africa

This study uses several alternative panel data estimation techniques (pooled ordinary least squares, fixed effects, and random effects) to examine the effect of domestic savings, foreign aid, the evolution of capital mobility over time, and openness on investment rates for a sample of 29 sub-Saharan African countries over the time period 1980 to 2001. The empirical evidence suggests the presence of capital mobility in line with previous studies of developing economies and that capital mobility has gradually increased over time. Moreover, foreign aid and openness both have positive and significant impacts on investment rates.     

Asymptotic normality of M-estimators in a semiparametric model with longitudinal data

Suppose that the longitudinal observations (Y _ij , X _ij , t _ij ) for i = 1, . . . ,n; j = 1, . . . ,m _i are modeled by the semiparamtric model where β ₀ is a k × 1 vector of unknown parameters, g(·) is an unknown estimated function and e _ij are unobserved disturbances. This article consider M-type regressions which include mean, median and quantile regressions. The M-estimator of the slope parameter β ₀ is obtained through piecewise local polynomial approximation of the nonparametric component. The local M-estimator of g(·) is also obtained by replacing β ₀ in model with its M-estimator and using local linear approximation. The asymptotic distribution of the estimator of β ₀ is derived. The asymptotic distributions of the local M-estimators of g(·) at both interior and boundary points are also established. Various applications of our main results are given. The research is supported in part by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 10671089).     

Import demand behavior in Africa: Some new evidence

Some African economies have experienced increases in the level of their foreign exchange reserves as well as increases in their import volume. Theory suggests that as the level of exchange reserves increases, it may affect the demand for imports since more funds will be available for imports. This paper examines import demand behavior in three African economies, namely Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa. An empirical analysis of import demand behavior is presented, based on the dynamic error-correction model, which allows an explicit parameterized division of effects into long-run influences, short-term adjustment and error-correction term. It uses econometric techniques organized around Johansen and Harris–Inder cointegration analyses; fully modified OLS, dynamic OLS and non-linear OLS to estimate long-run import demand functions.     

On marginal estimation in a semiparametric model for longitudinal data with time-independent covariates

We consider M-estimators for a class of semiparametric mixed-effect models without time-dependent covariates and show that the simple marginal estimation method is generally better than the same M-estimator applied to the de-correlated response based on a known or estimated covariance matrix for each subject.     

A semiparametric panel model for unbalanced data with application to climate change in the United Kingdom

This paper is concerned with developing a semiparametric panel model to explain the trend in UK temperatures and other weather outcomes over the last century. We work with the monthly averaged maximum and minimum temperatures observed at the twenty six Meteorological Office stations. The data is an unbalanced panel. We allow the trend to evolve in a nonparametric way so that we obtain a fuller picture of the evolution of common temperature in the medium timescale. Profile likelihood estimators (PLE) are proposed and their statistical properties are studied. The proposed PLE has improved asymptotic property comparing the sequential two-step estimators. Finally, forecasting based on the proposed model is studied.     

Privatisation: Let the Market Decide

Is the Government privatising efficiently? Is it floating the shares in nationalised industry economically? Will British Telecom be under-priced? Professor Davis and Roger Buckland have studied the privatisation issues of shares over five years and found large but avoidable losses. They argue that the Government's marketing technique could be improved by making less use of the large financial institutions and more use of competitive tenders.     

Women and corruption: evidence from multinational panel data

In this paper we investigate whether the ratio of female population is related with lower corruption, utilizing a multinational panel data with 80 countries for the period 2000–2012 and employing the Generalized Method of Moments as well as the ordered probit regression methods. This is the first study on the impacts of different female groups on corruption. Overall speaking, the estimation results are pluralistic. Higher female ratios in the legislative branch and in the labor force are significantly associated with a lower level of corruption, while the female ratio in secondary enrollment is positively related with corruption; however, the female ratio of the whole population has insignificant impacts on corruption. The policy implications are that a simple enhanced female ratio and educational level are not the effective way to inhibit corruption in our sample countries, whereas improvements of the female ratio in the legislative branch and the labor force contribute to controlling corruption. These results are basically robust for the two estimation methods and for the two subsamples of developed and developing countries. As a result, the estimation results on the relationship between corruption and gender might vary remarkably when different indicators for the female groups are utilized, which should some light on future studies.     

The translog production function: Some evidence from establishment data

This paper uses cross-section data from individual establishments to estimate directly, i.e., without using side conditions, translog functions for 44 four-digit ISIC Chilean manufacturing industries. Main results are: (1) The null hypothesis that the production function is Cobb-Douglas cannot be rejected for 39 out of 44 four-digit ISIC industries. (2) The null hypothesis of constant returns to scale cannot be rejected for 35 out of 44 industries; the remaining 9 sectors show evidence of increasing returns to scale.     

A semiparametric cointegrating regression: Investigating the effects of age distributions on consumption and saving

We consider a semiparametric cointegrating regression model, for which the disequilibrium error is further explained nonparametrically by a functional of distributions changing over time. The paper develops the statistical theories of the model. We propose an efficient econometric estimator and obtain its asymptotic distribution. A specification test for the model is also investigated. The model and methodology are applied to analyze how an aging population in the US influences the consumption level and the savings rate. We find that the impact of age distribution on the consumption level and the savings rate is consistent with the life-cycle hypothesis.     

我国煤炭城市环境库兹涅茨效应研究

库兹涅茨效应在全球经济发展和环境保护中存在着普遍性。低碳发展是我们煤炭城市可持续发展的必由之路,但我国煤炭城市尚不具有低碳发展的成熟思路。基于我国32座煤炭城市的数据检验发现,我国煤炭城市二氧化碳排放和经济发展之间并不存在库兹涅茨效应,说明我国煤炭城市的低碳建设仍存在诸多障碍和不足。因此,我国煤炭城市在技术革新、结构转型、消费观念、监督政策等方面仍要继续优化和完善。     

Estimates of the return to schooling and ability: evidence from sibling data

We use sibling data on wages, schooling, and aptitude test scores from the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY79) to obtain OLS, family fixed effects, and fixed effects instrumental variable estimates of the return to schooling for a large sample of non-twin siblings. Following recent studies that use identical twin samples, we use sibling-reported schooling as an instrument for self-reported schooling. Controlling for aptitude test scores has a substantial impact on estimated returns to schooling even within families, and there is a large return to test scores that is comparable in size within and between families. We also find that the return to schooling is higher for older brothers than for younger brothers and for women than men. Finally, because the NLSY79 contains multiple sibling reports of education for the same individual, we are able to test and reject the overidentifying restrictions for the validity of sibling-reported schooling as an instrumental variable.     

Budget deficits and the current account balance: New evidence from panel data

This study examines two distinguishing predictions of the finite-horizon open-economy macroeconomic models regarding the effect of fiscal policy on the current account balance: (1) Given the path of government expenditures, a fall in public savings has an adverse effect on the current account balance, and (2) a bond-financed increase in government expenditures exerts a larger adverse effect on the current account balance than a tax-financed alternative. These predictions are vastly different from those of the Ricardian theory. According to this view, (1) lower public savings are met by equal increases in desired private savings, and thus the current account balance does not change, and (2) the response of current account balance to a change in government spending is independent of its financing methods. Empirical analysis of 63 countries is consistent with the conventional theory.     

西部大开发:让资本的巨龙舞起来

西部地区因其独特的区位、丰富的资源、得天独厚的农业发展条件和广阔的消费市场等优势,为民间资本和民营企业的发展提供了巨大的商机. 近十年来,西部地区进入了增长速度最快、发展质量最好、城乡面貌变化最大、人民群众受惠最多的时期.实践证明,中国政府实施西部大开发的战略决策是完全正确的.     

基于库兹涅茨曲线理论的武汉市水环境实证研究

基于库兹涅茨曲线理论,在调查分析武汉市经济发展与水环境现状的基础上,依据武汉市2003-2017年工业废水排放量与人均GDP为原始数据建立EKC曲线模型。实证研究发现,武汉市工业污水排放总量与人均国民生产总值之间呈现倒N型关系,且两个拐点分别为2008年和2009年。在研究武汉市相关政策的基础上,针对武汉市水环境污染与经济发展的现状给出相关建议,提出可持续发展策略。