基于向量自回归模型的我国货币政策效应时滞分析

改革开放以来,理论界在强化中央银行的宏观调控能力,合理运用货币政策上进行了有益的探索。但是,在货币政策的制定与实施上存在严重的短期行为,这些短期行为所造成的不良后果已使越来越多的人认识到探讨我国货币政策效应时滞问题的重要性。运用var模型对我国货币供应量和利率的效应时滞进行实证分析,以求得出的结论对指导我国货币政策实践具有参考价值。     

我国货币政策价格时滞效应实证分析

货币政策的价格时滞效应是货币政策实证的重要问题之一,本文利用1998年至2011年的数据,通过建立向量自回归(VAR)模型,采用脉冲响应对我国狭义货币供应量(M1)及广义货币供应量(M2)的变化对居民消费价格(CPI)和生产资料价格PPI的影响进行实证分析。结果表明,M1、M2的变化对CPI、PPI的影响均显著;M1的变化对CPI的时滞效应大致为3个月,对PPI的时滞效应大致为4个月;M2对CPI的时滞效应大致为3个月,对PPI的时滞效应大致为4个月。     

中国货币政策对开放式基金市场的影响

货币政策的变动造成对相关金融市场的波动溢出效应,我国开放式基金市场也不例外。国内开放式基金的波动受到我国货币政策的影响,由于时滞效应,短期的利率调整对开放式基金波动溢出无效,长期的货币供应量的变化同样对开放式基金市场产生的波动溢出效应存在时滞。这说明了我国的货币政策的形成机制还不够完善,存在明显的时滞效应,同时我国开放式基金的风险管理能力较差,受短期因素影响明显、基金市场波动较激烈,需要进一步引导树立价值投资理念。     

我国货币政策时滞效应的研究

货币政策时滞效应是影响一国货币政策有效性重要因素。系统地研究币政策时滞问题,不但对理论界研究货币政策的效应,而且对我国中央银行选择适当的时机进行宏观调控有着重要的意义。本文在货币政策有效的前提下分析货币政策的时滞,包括时滞理论发展以及现实意义。接着根据我国经济现状自身的特点对中国货币政策时滞状况分析,最后提出相应的对策建议。     

效应时滞与货币政策有效性——中国1993—2001年的实证分析和政策含义

效应时滞是影响货币政策有效性的一个不容忽视的重要因素。本运用时差相关系数法和脉冲响应函数法对我国1993—2001年货币政策宏观调控的效应时滞分别进行了实证研究，结果表明我国货币政策无论是对经济产出还是对价格的影响均是存在一定的效应时滞的，中央银行应提高对货币政策效应时滞的预测能力，为前瞻性货币政策决策提供准确的实证依据。     

浅论外汇储备增长对我国货币政策的影响

近年来,我国外汇储备不断增加,远远超过了合理的水平,导致市场流动性过多,影响了我国货币政策的作用发挥,降低了我国的货币政策的有效性和独立性。本文首先介绍我国外汇储备的增长状况,然后结合我国的客观实际情况从货币供应量、货币供应结构、货币供应量内生性和货币供应时滞四个方面具体分析了外汇储备增加对我国货币政策的影响,旨在明晰外汇储备增长对我国货币政策的影响。     

我国货币政策工具有效性分析

货币政策工具的有效性决定了货币政策的最终效果,我国运用的货币政策工具主要有公开市场操作、准备金率、中央银行基准利率、信贷政策、再贷款、再贴现以及外汇市场的调控等。具体分析发现,我国近十年主要使用的货币政策工具,总体上可以对基础货币产生影响,但对其他因素（如流动性、外汇占款过大等）来说,货币政策工具的操作效果减弱。另外,货币政策内部传导机制中的时滞效应也使货币政策工具难以及时发挥作用。     

对我国货币政策有效性的分析

从我国货币政策的数量与质量效果和货币政策的时滞三个方面,对我国货币政策有效性从理论和实证方面进行了分析,不难看出,货币政策已成为我国调控经济政策的重要手段。随着我国市场经济体制的建立和完善,应该密切关注货币数量特别是M2的变动、货币政策中间目标的选择和货币政策时滞等影响货币政策效果的三个主要因素,以利于充分发挥货币政策的作用。     

货币政策对住宅供应结构的影响

本文选取1999-2010年的省际面板数据,运用动态面板数据模型研究了货币政策对住宅供应结构的影响,发现货币政策对住宅细分市场供给影响的程度由大到小依次为高档商品房、普通商品房和经济适用房;高档商品房供给的货币政策效应存在明显的时滞性,普通商品房供给的货币政策效应有较强的时效性,经济适用房供给的货币政策效应相对较弱;相对于利率而言,货币供应量对住宅供应结构的影响较大。因此,对住宅开发项目实行差别化货币政策,并配合有效的土地供应和差别化税率政策,是调整住宅供应结构的有效途径。     

中国货币政策的时滞效应

货币政策是中央银行在金融领域内所采取的调节手段,目的是为了实现一定的经济目标,但是经济目标能否实现取决于很多因素,而且货币政策的效应也不是马上就可以体现出来的,而是要经过一段时间才可以体现出货币政策的效果,即所谓的货币政策时滞。2008年金融危以来,中央银行适用货币政策对经济的调控取得了很大的进步,为国民经济的稳定健康发展做出了很大的贡献,但是货币政策的时滞问题影响了央行实施货币政策所产生的效果。货币政策的时滞是不断变化的并且难以预测,这给央行使用货币来调控经济带来了很大的困难。     

回顾 研判 部署 谱写黑龙江省商务事业新篇章——开拓进取 求实创新 推动商务工作更好更快发展

2011年——"十二五"开局之年,黑龙江省商务事业实现了开门红,成绩斐然。2012年是实施"十二五"规划承上启下的关键一年、是加速发展的一年。2012年,国际环境错综复杂,世界经济增长动力明显减弱;国内经济总体运行态势向好,工业化、信息化、市场化、城镇化、国际化深入发展,区域梯次发展格局正在形成,消费需求增长空间很大;商务领域成本推动价格上涨压力依然存在,自然灾害、市场调控手段和流通设施相对薄弱问题依然突出,扩大消费面临的制约因素仍然较多。基于上述研判,黑龙江省商务事业唯有开拓进取、求实创新、方能实现更好更快发展,谱写新的篇章,方能以商务事业的新跨越推动全省经济社会的大发展。     

Factors Associated with Opinion Seeking

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between opinion seeking and cultural values and individual characteristics in the context of electronic products by surveying cosmopolitan adults of 15 nationalities, namely, American, Australian, British, Dutch, Filipino, German, Hong Konger, Indian, Italian, Japanese, Malaysian, New Zealander, Singaporean, Swedish, and Thai. It finds (i) positive correlation between opinion seeking and power distance, category knowledge, category purchase intention, category innovativeness, opinion giving, market maven, brand loyalty, and susceptibility to interpersonal influence, (ii) negative correlation between opinion seeking and the masculinity and uncertainty avoidance cultural dimensions, category ownership, self-esteem, education, and age, and (iii) no correlation between opinion seeking and individualism, long-term orientation, and risk taking. It then discusses the managerial implications of the findings.     

新时代我国残疾人社会融合问题研究

社会不同群体间的相互融合是一个复杂的动态过程,要促进残疾人更好地融入社会、实现自我价值,需要充分理解残疾人社会融合的理论界定与实践经验,以此为基础完善新时代残疾人社会融合多领域综合保障机制体系,推动残疾人平等参与和全面融合。通过梳理和分析新时代我国残疾人社会融合的思想渊源,对国内外残疾人社会融合现状、理念、实践进行总结,分析得出应该秉持平等原则、倾斜保障原则、充分融合原则来推进新时代我国残疾人社会融合,并且通过加强制度设计,完善制度框架,构建友好环境,健全设施建设,注重社会引导,实现良性互动,完善社会保障,促进自我认同,推动教育融合,构建全纳教育等方式,将我国残疾人社会融合体制机制建立起来,为我国残疾人对美好生活的向往凝心聚力,彰显大国担当,推动相关研究向世界一流水平迈进。     

中国银行业信息化问题探讨

中国金融业和银行业的发展举世瞩目。中国银行业的信息化之路走过了20年,实现了信息大集中、运营集约化、管理现代化和服务电子化。随着全球经济一体化、金融一体化的深入推进,中国的商业银行必须从银行信息化走向信息化银行,即在银行信息化的基础上真正实现融汇、贯通,促使银行业经营管理产生根本变化。具体说来,就是要集中、整合、共享、挖掘。一要转变为规模化、标准化的作业模式,实现业务集中处理,最终达到经营管理的全面集中和集约,使银行在业务量快速增长、业务复杂性大幅提高的情况下,依然保证业务运营的高质量、高效率,有效降低生产运营成本,控制经营风险;二要按照统一的信息技术架构将银行内部各管理系统全部整合到一个系统管理平台,实现各系统互联互通;三要突破信息传导和查控的限制,提高可用性和易用性;四要对银行或者企业非常需要的管理信息、客户信息、产品信息等进行收集、储存和处理,进行挖掘和归纳性梳理,充分利用有价值的信息,帮助管理者判断市场,发现价格,评估风险,配置资源,提供决策支持。中国银行业应在全球银行业剧变之时,为银行信息化建设走出一条新路。     

巩固江苏外贸强省地位,探讨外贸发展新趋势

在面对人民币持续升值和利率调整,发达国家和地区的经济增长速度有所下降,外贸税收政策的调整的新形势下,江苏省要保持住外贸强省地位,政府部门必须采取积极措施,迅速把握国际市场供求信息,优化出口结构,加强对出口商品价格、数量的动态监测,引导企业增强综合竞争力,提高出口的质量和效益;增加能源、资源类产品进口,以抵消人民币汇率和利率变动对企业生产的不利影响,不断提高企业应对贸易摩擦的能力,进而达到江苏对外贸易持续健康发展的目的。     

当前我国流通领域十个重大理论与实践问题

当前内贸管理工作实践中存在十个方面的重大理论与实践问题,一是流通的地位与作用问题,二是内外贸的关系问题,三是内外资的关系问题,四是大型企业与中小企业的关系问题,五是零供关系问题,六是零售企业的营销模式问题,七是批发体系的重构问题,八是电子商务是否会孕育一场新的商业革命,九是物流的专业化与社会化问题,十是商业物流企业涉足金融问题.这十个困扰各级流通主管部门的实际问题,直接关系着流通业发展的走向,有待于进一步深入研究和破解.     

How can I Be as attractive as a Fitness YouTuber in the era of COVID-19? The impact of digital attributes on flow experience,satisfaction, and behavioral intention

In the past decade, the social media platform has dramatically changed individuals’ daily activities in real life and on the Internet, including shopping, socialization, entertainment, study, and even health and fitness. In the era of COVID-19, particularly, consumers tend to rely more on digital attributes of social media platforms for their decision-making process by reducing the physical touchpoint. Responding to this ongoing trend, this study investigates how fitness YouTube channel attributes and fitness YouTuber attributes influence flow experience, satisfaction, and behavioral intention of YouTubers who work out at home via a fitness YouTube channel during the COVID-19 pandemic. Based on the social media literature and the cognitive appraisal theory, this research formulates a research model that specifies the influence of three dimensions of fitness YouTube channel attributes (i.e., social interaction, information quality, and visual content) and three dimensions of fitness YouTuber attributes (i.e., social attractiveness, physical attractiveness, and attitude homophily) on flow experience, YouTube channel satisfaction, and behavioral intention in the context of YouTube. This study recruited participants in the United States who currently work out via a fitness YouTube channel through three waves of data collection during the COVID-19 era. The empirical results revealed that flow experience was significantly affected by information quality, visual content, and physical attractiveness. Also, YouTube channel satisfaction was significantly affected by social interaction, information quality, and visual content. Lastly, behavioral intention was significantly affected by flow experience and YouTube channel satisfaction. Based on the findings, this study proposes meaningful implications for the extant literature and social media industry during the COVID-19 pandemic.     

An emotional economy of mundane objects

This article illuminates the affective potentialities of objects. We examine the circulation of Kurdish music cassettes in Turkey during the restrictive and strife-laden period of the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s. We find that the practices comprising circulation – recording, hiding, playing, and exchanging cassettes – constituted tactical resistance and generated communal imaginaries. We illuminate the “emotional economy” that is animated by a mundane object: the cassette, through its circulation, becomes saturated with emotions, establishes shared emotional repertoires, and habituates individuals and collectives into common emotional dispositions. Cassettes thus play a part in shaping and reinforcing an emotional habitus that accompanies the emergence of a sense of “us,” the delineation of the “other,” and the relationship between the two. We thus demonstrate the entwinement of materiality and emotions, and examine how this entwinement generates emotional structures that shape and perpetuate the imagining of community as well as the enactment of resistance.     

Striking a Balance Between Rules and Principles-based Approaches for Effective Governance: A Risks-based Approach

Several recent studies and initiatives have emphasized the importance of a strong ethical organizational DNA (ODNA) to create and promote an effective corporate governance culture of trust, integrity and intellectual honesty. This paper highlights the drawbacks of an excessively heavy reliance on rules-based approaches that increase the cost of doing business, overshadow essential elements of good corporate governance, create a culture of dependency, and can result in legal absolutism. The paper makes the case that the way forward for effective corporate governance is to strike an optimal balance between rules-based and principles-based approaches. The recent corporate scandals have demonstrated that the ethical ODNA is critical to the driving force and basis of legal and regulatory requirements. Effective governance means adhering to ethical principles, not merely complying with rules, and is a crucial guardian of a firm’s reputation and integrity. It is through an effective corporate governance program (that is, one that optimally captures and integrates the appropriate aspects of rules-based and principles-based approaches, and identifies and assesses the related risks) that an organization can reconfigure its ODNA for improved performance. Focusing on the ethical ODNA as the basis of new governance measures provides an opportunity to develop a competitive advantage as it represents a potential source of differentiation, strengthens the relationship with all stakeholders of the organization by building a culture of trust and integrity, and re-instills investor confidence. This paper employs dialectical reasoning that links the ODNA through principles-driven rules in developing a risks-based approach. A comparison from a risk assessment perspective between rules-based and principles-based approaches is presented. Although there have been few applications employing dialectical reasoning in business research, this methodology can be extremely useful in isolating ethical issues and integrating them into the business process. The risks-based approach captures the benefits of both rules-based and principles-based approaches, and incorporates trust-based principles such␣as solidarity, subsidiarity and covenantal relationships.Sundera Arjoon is a Senior Lecturer in Ethics at the Department of Management Studies, The University of the West Indies, Trinidad, He has served as Head of Department (2002–2005) and as Deputy Dean of the Faculty of Social Sciences (1996–2002). His publications have appeared in the Journal of Business Ethics, Journal of Markets and Morality, Global Development Studies, Social and Economic Studies, Applied Financial Economics, and the Journal of Eastern Carribean Studies. His current teaching and research interests include ethical decision-making, corporate governance, virtue ethics and familial ethics.     

From Brighton beach to blogs: exploring food-related nostalgia in the Russian diaspora

This research presents a qualitative exploration of food-related nostalgia experienced by individuals from Russia and the former Soviet Union in the context of diasporic waves. By varying time and space dimensions associated with nostalgia, the analysis is conceptualized around three “locations”: (1) Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States, (2) Brighton Beach, New York, and (3) cyberspace. Weblogs, demonstrated here to be objects of inquiry, are analyzed according to their nostalgia content, social connections, and community interaction. Nostalgic evocation through traditional cuisine is evident in all three settings. Personal, interpersonal, and cultural nostalgia are apparent in web content, demonstrating a technological role in the creation, sharing, and dissemination of nostalgia. Implications of the study relate to the sociology of food and interdisciplinary food studies, culinary tourism, online and offline marketing, and product distribution into ethnic and international markets.