Do retirement planning strategies alter the effect of time preference on retirement wealth?

An individual’s willingness to accumulate retirement wealth is influenced by their preference for intertemporal consumption. People with a strong preference for current consumption (high personal discount rate) may choose to save less and face the risk of decreased retirement preparedness. A negative relation between a high personal discount rate and retirement wealth may be reduced when individuals engage in some form of retirement planning. Using the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, we provide evidence that respondents with a high personal discount rate accumulated 37% less retirement wealth, on average, between 2004 and 2008, when compared with respondents with a low personal discount rate. However, when retirement planning strategies were included in the model, there was no statistical difference in retirement wealth between people with high and low personal discount rates. The retirement planning strategies included calculating a retirement income need, hiring a financial planner for retirement or engaging in both of these activities.     

Retirement Policies and the Life Cycle: Current Trends and Future Prospects

During the 20th century, pensions in developed countries were generally payable from a statutory retirement age which provided a norm for retirement behaviour and a threshold dividing older from younger age groups. Governments, by setting fixed starting dates for work and retirement, created a standardised life cycle with clearly delineated and uniform boundaries between education, work and retirement stages. Over the last 30 years or so, retirement behaviour has diverged from official norms and moved towards earlier retirement, although pressures for later retirement are now increasing as concerns over pension finance provoke calls for older workers to remain economically active. Weaker retirement norms have prompted speculation that working practices may be evolving from a Fordist life cycle with fixed stages to post-Fordist life courses with fluid and variable personal experiences. This paper assesses current trends, asking whether they do indicate major changes in the life cycle, and considers the flexibility of retirement, paying particular attention to the influence of government and employers. Several ways in which retirement could develop are identified, but few of them remove the constraints on retirees: truly flexible retirement will not occur spontaneously and will require explicit policies to safeguard retirement choices.     

(Un)expected retirement and the consumption puzzle

In this work we revisit the retirement consumption puzzle using Italian panel data. As emphasised in the literature, the observed consumption drop might be due to unexpected wealth shocks at retirement which modify optimal consumption plans. Using an Euler equation approach, we test the impact of unexpected retirement on the consumption patterns of individuals around the age of retirement by using the panel component of the Survey of Household Income and Wealth (SHIW). This dataset contains information on the expected age of retirement which can be used to distinguish between expected and unexpected retirement. Furthermore, we investigate the heterogeneous behaviour of individuals with different levels of education and wealth. We find evidence of a consumption drop at retirement especially for low educated people and individuals with little wealth. The consumption drop at retirement, on average, does not seem to be a response to unexpected retirement. Disaggregating our sample, we find that the consumption drop persists among low educated people with little wealth available, irrespective of whether retirement was expected or not. Highly educated people, conversely, do smooth their consumption, unless they have low wealth and are hit by an unexpected shock at retirement in which case they are forced to drop consumption.     

Public pension programmes and the retirement of married couples in Denmark

In this paper we study the economic determinants of the joint retirement process of married couples. We propose a tractable dynamic discrete choice model for retirement decisions which allows for non-trivial saving behaviour. We estimate the model on a 1% sample of Danish couples of potential retirement age drawn from a population-based administrative register. The introduction and subsequent reforms of a publicly financed early retirement programme provide us with variation in the data to insure identification of the parameters of interest: the elasticities of participation/retirement with respect to income flows. Our estimates imply a significant asymmetry in the sensitivity of retirement behaviour of men and women with respect to variation in their own, or their spouse's, income flows.     

Gender difference in the impact of retirement on cognitive abilities: Evidence from urban China

This paper examines the impact of retirement on cognitive functioning by gender in urban China and investigates the underlying mechanisms. Based on data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study, the paper uses the mandatory retirement ages and different policy enforcement between the public and private sectors as instruments for retirement status. The analysis finds substantial gender heterogeneity in the effect of retirement on cognition, with a positive and significant effect for males, but a negative and less significant effect for females. The beneficial effects on cognition are stronger for male blue-collar workers, who are likely to pursue a more active lifestyle at retirement. Further investigation shows that the results are partly driven by differential behavioral changes at retirement, and the gender difference in retirement ages may also play a potential role.     

The impact of inheritances on the retirement behavior of older Europeans

The aim of this paper is to study how wealth affects retirement behavior. I use data from the 2004–2012 Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe, covering 10 European countries. Inheritances are used as an exogenous change in wealth to estimate the causal effect of wealth/inheritance receipt on retirement. I apply binary choice models for a sample of persons working in 2004/05 to estimate the effect of inheritance receipt during 2005–2011 on the probability of retirement in 2011/12. By comparing data on expected retirement age at the beginning of the sample period with actual retirement age I am able to control for unobserved factors that might be correlated with wealth and affect retirement decisions. The main findings are: (1) Inheritance receipt is quite common for individuals nearing retirement age (50+). About 20 % of the sample aged 50 and older in 2011/12 live in households that received at least one inheritance between 2005 and 2011. (2) Inheritance receipt significantly increases the probability of retirement and the effect increases with the size of the inheritance. (3) In contrast to what life-cycle theory suggests I do not find any evidence that expected and unexpected inheritances affect adjustments of planned retirement age differently. These results are important for assessing the effect of policies that induce changes in wealth, such as pension reforms, tax reforms or reforms of Social Security, on retirement behavior.     

Social insurance for the elderly

We study the effects of retirement benefits provided by social insurance programs on consumption, portfolio choice, and retirement in a continuous-time theoretical model. We show that people tend to retire earlier with an increase in retirement social insurance benefits (SIBs), consistent with empirical evidence. We show also that people tend to increase savings before retirement in anticipation of increased retirement benefits, a counter-intuitive result. The response of risky investment with an increase in the SIBs is ambiguous, depending on parameter values. The overall social welfare will increase with an increase in SIBs if the balanced budget constraint is satisfied. We also investigate the effects of changes in the two streams of the SIBs (paid in perishable goods and cash) and the proportion of workers in entire population on social welfare.     

事业单位职工延迟退休年龄影响因素实证分析

本文以生命周期理论为依据,以事业单位职工作为实证研究的对象,对退休年龄的影响因素从个人特征、经济因素、工作因素、制度因素四个维度进行问卷调查,借助二元Logistic回归模型进行分析。结果显示,最适退休年龄、工龄、升职空间、继续工作意愿这4个因素均与职工延迟退休意愿的强烈程度呈正相关关系,退休后社会保障外收入则与延迟退休意愿呈负相关关系。     

Retirement planning in the light of changing demographics

With increasing longevity and decreasing fertility rates, governments and policy makers are increasingly engaged in the question of long term retirement planning. In many cases this has included emphasising the need for individuals to take more responsibility for their own retirement planning through tax incentives, compulsion and changes to the age at which state retirement benefits become available. In the case of Australia, as is considered here, long term retirement planning has been focused around the development of a compulsory defined contribution (DC) superannuation system. Here we investigate the interaction between population ageing and the sustainability of the superannuation system by modelling a general superannuation scheme to compare the adequacy of retirement funds under a number of alternative scenarios. The model incorporates stochastic longevity forecasts and provides insight into the sufficiency of compulsory retirement saving both now and future. We find that the current pension scheme is more robust to longevity improvements for mid-class individuals however significant gaps arise for low-income individuals as longevity improves. Without addressing these issues, government expenditure is expected to increase substantially.     

退休对认知能力的短期和长期影响*——兼论延迟退休的“健康红利”

本文使用中国健康与养老追踪调查(CHARLS) 2011—2015年3轮调查数据，通过研究退休与认知衰退的关系，探讨了延迟退休对认知能力的影响。估计结果表明，退休在短期能够抑制认知衰退，但是从长期来看退休对认知有负面的影响。具体来说，在退休后3年内，退休对认知衰退有抑制作用，在退休大约3年~4年后，退休对认知的积极影响逐渐变为负面影响。按性别分组的估计结果表明，退休对认知能力的负面长期影响对男性而言更突出。本文的研究揭示了退休对认知能力的短期和长期影响存在差异。从政策的角度讲，适当提高法定退休年龄能够缩短退休持续时间，对抑制认知衰退有积极作用，即延迟退休能够带来认知方面的“健康红利”。     

退休对认知能力的短期和长期影响*——兼论延迟退休的“健康红利”

本文使用中国健康与养老追踪调查(CHARLS) 2011—2015年3轮调查数据,通过研究退休与认知衰退的关系,探讨了延迟退休对认知能力的影响。估计结果表明,退休在短期能够抑制认知衰退,但是从长期来看退休对认知有负面的影响。具体来说,在退休后3年内,退休对认知衰退有抑制作用,在退休大约3年~4年后,退休对认知的积极影响逐渐变为负面影响。按性别分组的估计结果表明,退休对认知能力的负面长期影响对男性而言更突出。本文的研究揭示了退休对认知能力的短期和长期影响存在差异。从政策的角度讲,适当提高法定退休年龄能够缩短退休持续时间,对抑制认知衰退有积极作用,即延迟退休能够带来认知方面的“健康红利”。     

Employer pay policies, public transfers and the retirement decisions of men and women in Denmark

The empirical retirement literature measures individual responses to variations in income flows due to public transfers, private individual or employer-provided pensions. We estimate a model accounting for the incentive effects from these sources. A dynamic structural model is extended to allow both individual and employer heterogeneity. This is applied to a Danish matched panel of workers and establishments, spanning a period of reforms to a public early retirement programme. Employer-specific compensation is found to be an important determinant of work and retirement income flows. Employer effects on retirement age are only found among sub-samples where access to public transfers is limited.     

The Causal Effect of Retirement on Health: Understanding the Mechanisms

This article examines the direct effects of retirement on health, as well as its indirect effects, through a mediation analysis. Using Australian panel data, analysis reveals that changes in retirement status and retirement duration imply positive causal effects on self‐assessed health as well as physical health and mental health. Gender plays an important role in shaping these relationships. For women, the positive relationship between retirement duration and health can be attributed to physical activity. In contrast, men appear to enjoy better health when staying retired for longer because they participate more in outdoor activities.     

Structural Changes in the Labor Market and the Rise of Early Retirement in France and Germany

The rise of early retirement in Europe is typically attributed to the European system of taxes and transfers. A model with an imperfectly competitive labor market allows us to consider also the effects of bargaining power and of matching efficiency on pre‐retirement. We find that lower bargaining power of workers and declining matching efficiency have been important determinants of early retirement in France and Germany. These structural changes, combined with early retirement transfers and population aging, are also consistent with the employment and unemployment rates, labor share and seniority premia.     

当前经济形势下关于延长退休年龄的思考

当前,中国人口老龄化问题越来越突出。适当延长退休年龄,可以缓解人口老龄化,增加劳动力供给,减轻养老保险基金支出。但是,严峻的就业形势却是不争的事实。是否需要延长退休年龄呢？在总结前人研究的基础上认为：2010—2020年将是中国延长退休年龄的良好时机。因而,在理论上和政策上应当为延长退休年龄作相应的准备。     

The retirement consumption puzzle revisited: Evidence from the mandatory retirement policy in China

Using data from China's Urban Household Survey and exploiting China's mandatory retirement policy, we use the regression discontinuity approach to estimate the impact of retirement on household expenditures. Retirement reduces total non-durable expenditures by 19%. Among the categories of non-durable expenditures, retirement reduces work-related expenditures and expenditures on food consumed at home but has an insignificant effect on expenditures on entertainment. After excluding these three components, retirement does not have an effect on the remaining non-durable expenditures. It suggests that the retirement consumption puzzle might not be a puzzle if an extended life-cycle model with home production is considered.     

Early Retirement and Economic Incentives

In Norway, early retirement programmes have gradually reduced the retirement age from 67 to 62 for a majority of the labour force. Based on micro data for 1990 and 1992, we estimate a competing-risk model with three states: full retirement, partial retirement/part-time work and full-time work. We then use the estimated model in simulations to study how financial incentives can be strengthened to extend working life. Financial incentives, educational background and industry affiliation are found to influence retirement behaviour. For low and medium incomes, the tax system shifts the incentives heavily towards early retirement and, in particular, towards partial retirement combined with part-time work.     

人口红利转变、老龄化与提高退休年龄

中国人口生育水平的下降和平均预期寿命的延长,导致原来的人口红利出现了转变的趋势,也造成了老龄化负担的加剧。在这种情况下,实行提高退休年龄的政策具备了某种可能性,因为人口红利的逐渐消失和劳动力供求的逆转可能成为提高退休年龄的推力,而养老金制度的老龄化危机则成为提高退休年龄的拉力。在现实条件下,考虑这一政策对城镇就业的冲击以及劳动力异质性的影响,应该实施渐进缓慢、逐步提高退休年龄的政策。     

论中国公务员养老保险配套制度的改革

中国公务员养老保险改革应与三个方面的配套制度,即退休制度、工资制度和法律制度的改革同时进行。退休制度改革应包括提高退休年龄并使男女退休年龄一致。工资制度改革包括建立合理的工资结构、引入绩效工资制度、减少隐性收入和地区间工资差异。法律制度改革包括建立适应的法律体系,明确政府职责和法治程序。     

An increase in the retirement age in China: the regional economic effects

China’s pension system is in need of comprehensive reform. One measure on which we focus is to increase the retirement age. It is likely that a change in retirement age will have significantly different effects across China’s regions. Interregional disparities are already very substantial in China and it will be important to know how changes in pension arrangements will affect disparities. We consider four policies to increase the retirement age from 60 to 61. They differ according the use made of the extra revenue generated by the policy. All four policies increase welfare and reduce the interregional welfare gap.