Agenda for the Housing Market

The housing market is the theme of the Reports to the 2008 Annual Meeting of the Royal Netherlands Economic Association. Current housing market policies in the Netherlands generate substantial welfare losses. The direct and indirect subsidies on housing distort the housing market, house moving behaviour, the labour market and the asset portfolio of households. The welfare loss is estimated at more than 6 billion euro per year. In addition, physical planning restrictions cost at least 3 billion euro per year, a price which is paid for the conservation of open space and nature, especially in the Green Heart of the Randstad. Developments on the housing market over the last fifteen years and the sizeable welfare losses from current policies are sufficient reason to develop an agenda for reform. The Reports suggest several elements for such an agenda, including a gradual reduction of housing subsidies in the owner–occupier sector as well as in the rental sector, an easier land policy to better meet the qualitative housing needs of the population, and an extension of the social tasks for the housing societies.      

住房消费对美国宏观经济的影响

以分析住房消费在美国经济中的地位和住房市场的演变为基础,本文探讨了住房消费对美国宏观经济的影响:住房消费促进经济回升的功能较强,住房租赁收入与经济周期关系密切,住房消费对就业带动能力较大。文章最后提出了积极推进我国城市尤其大都市区房地产租赁市场快速有序发展的政策建议。     

发达国家居民住房租赁市场的经验及借鉴——以德国、日本、美国为例

成熟的住房租赁市场,不仅可以有效提高居民消费率,而且能够实现居民买房和租房的效用均衡,减缓房价上涨对宏观经济的冲击。本文分析总结了德国、美国、日本等主要发达国家居民住房租赁市场的发展和管制经验,并从法律保障、开拓房源、保护承租人利益、发放租金补贴等方面发展我国的住房租赁市场提出了政策建议。     

基于Logit模型的“蚁族”人群公租房申请意愿研究——来自广州市的调查数据

采用问卷调查方法,运用Logit模型对广州市"蚁族"人群公租房申请意愿影响因素进行统计调查分析。通过对13个影响因素进行检验,研究结果表明民众对公租房政策的了解程度、公租房申请手续繁琐程度、理想的公租房面积、公租房布局、公租房项目离工作地点距离等因素显著影响"蚁族"人群公租房申请意愿。提出公租房项目开发要重视对申请方的实际需求调查,要对显著影响公租房申请意愿的因素加以控制,从而以市场需求为导向,从供给侧角度优化公租房政策,提升"蚁族"人群公租房申请意愿。     

Housing and the cost of living in early modern Toledo

Data on housing costs and rental markets for the early modern period are notoriously scarce. Using a new database of rent paid on 183 properties belonging to the Cathedral Chapter of Toledo between 1489 and 1600, we reconstruct housing costs for various social groups and trace the effect of exogenous shocks on the rental market using hedonic techniques. We document a well-functioning market that responded swiftly and predictably to exogenous shocks. We then explore the impact of adding rent to early modern price indices and estimates of living standards. Price indices show a moderate effect. The addition of rent reduces the gap between Toledo and two northern European locations by up to 9.5%.     

Field Experiment Tests for Discrimination against Hispanics in the U.S. Rental Housing Market

This article tests for discrimination against Hispanics in the U.S. rental housing market using e‐mail correspondence with landlords advertising units online. We divide Hispanics into two groups: those that appear assimilated into American culture and recent immigrants. We find little difference in the treatment of assimilated Hispanics and whites; however, Hispanics we portray as recent immigrants receive less favorable treatment with margins of net discrimination as large as 6.89% of landlords. We also find discrimination varies significantly at the region level and by the ethnic composition of neighborhoods.     

Dynamic Spillovers in the United States: Stock Market,Housing, Uncertainty,and the Macroeconomy

In this study, we examine dynamic spillovers among the housing market, stock market, and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in the United States in a unified empirical framework. Applying the Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) methodology on monthly data over the period 1987M1–2014M11, our findings reveal the following features. First, the transmission of various types of shocks contributes significantly to economic fluctuations in the United States. Second, spillovers show large variations over time. Third, in the wake of the global financial crisis, spillovers have been exceptionally high in historical perspective. In particular, we find large spillovers from EPU, as well as stock market and housing returns to other variables, in particular inflation, industrial production and the federal funds rate. These results illustrate the contagion from the housing and financial crisis to the real economy and the strong policy reaction to stabilize the economy.     

Sectoral Wage Rigidities and Labour and Product Market Institutions in the Euro Area

We estimate wage Phillips curve relationships between sectoral wage growth, unemployment and productivity in a country-industry panel of euro area countries. We find that institutional rigidities – such as labour and product market institutions and regulations – limit the adjustment of euro area wages to unemployment, in both upturns and downturns, particularly in manufacturing and, to a lesser extent, in the construction and service sectors. In addition, there are further limitations in the response of wages to changes in unemployment during economic downturns which suggests that euro area wages are also characterised by significant downward wage rigidities, especially in the manufacturing sector. These results are robust to specifications that account for factors that may affect structural unemployment (such as duration-dependent unemployment effects), as well as changes in the skill composition of employment that may affect the evolution of aggregate wages. The results also hold for panels including or excluding the public sector (where wages may be determined differently to the private sector also due to the effects of fiscal consolidation on public sector wages during the crisis). From a policy perspective, reforms in product and labour markets which reduce wage rigidities can facilitate employment growth and enhance the rebalancing process in the euro area.     

基于演化博弈的网约车市场规制研究

随着网约车用户规模的不断增大，越来越多的网约车平台不断涌现，同时网约车市场面临的规制问题也越来越严峻。通过构建政府、网约车平台与网约车司机的三方演化博弈模型，利用三个博弈主体的复制动态方程以寻求推动网约车市场规范化发展的演化稳定策略。最后在考虑各博弈主体做决策时均会受到自身因素和其他两方策略的影响后，提出推动网约车市场规范化发展的策略。     

当前我国房地产价格的合理性研究

近年来,我国房地产价格大幅快速上涨,引起了公众和政府的高度关注。本文使用两个不同的指标分析了当前我国房地产市场的价格状况。从房价收入比来看,我国大部分居民的收入难以承受过高的房价,我国的房价存在很大的泡沫;从租金房价比来看,租金较低,房价严重偏高,目前房地产投资存在较高的风险,对房地产业以及整个国民经济和社会的稳定有着严重的影响。研究表明我国绝大多数城市的房屋定价不合理,严重偏高,房地产市场存在较大的泡沫和较高的风险。因此,政府还要继续对房地产业实行调控,加快实施保障性住房和廉租房建设,使房价逐步回归到合理水平,促进房地产业的持续、稳定、健康发展。     

Housing rent dynamics and rent regulation in St. Petersburg (1880–1917)

This article studies housing rents in St. Petersburg from 1880 to 1917, covering an eventful period of Russian and world history. Digitizing over 5000 rental advertisements, we construct a state-of-the-art index – the first pre-war and pre-Soviet market data index for any Russian city. In 1915, a rent control and tenant protection policy was introduced in response to soaring prices following the outbreak of WWI. We document official compliance, rising tenure duration, and strongly increased affordability for workers. While the immediate prelude to the October Revolution was indeed characterized by economic turmoil, rent affordability did not dominate.     

Labour Market Flexibility,Wages and Incomes in Sub‐Saharan Africa in the 1990s

Abstract: This paper provides an overview of how African labour markets have performed in the 1990s. It is argued that the failure of African labour markets to create good paying jobs has resulted in excess labour supply in the form of either open unemployment or a growing self‐employment sector. One explanation for this outcome is a lack of labour market ‘flexibility’ keeping formal sector wages above their equilibrium level and restricting job creation. We identify three attributes of labour market flexibility. First, whether real wages decline over time; secondly, the tendency for wages to adjust in the face of unemployment; and thirdly, the extent of wage differentials between sectors and/or firms of various size. Recent research shows that real wages in Africa during the 1990s may have been more downwardly flexible than previously thought and have been surprisingly responsive to unemployment rates, yet large wage differentials between formal and informal sector firms remain. This third sense of the term ‘inflexibility’ can explain a common factor across diverse African economies — the high income divide between those working in large firms and those not. Those working in the thriving self‐employment sector in Ghana have something in common with the unemployed in South Africa — both have very low income opportunities relative to those in large firms.     

基于蒙托卡罗模拟的BOT模式下公租房盈利的影响因素分析——以浙江省某高校人才公租房项目为例

针对公共租赁房资金短缺的现状,政企合作建设公共租赁房,在减轻财政压力、有效利用民间资本、加快解决低收入家庭住房困难等方面有十分重要的意义。本文以浙江省某公租房项目为例,采用蒙托拉罗方法模拟项目净现值,分析不同因素对BOT融资模式下公租房盈利的影响,研究表明,影响公租房盈利的主要因素是建筑工程费、年租金收入及其他费用。为此,从成本和收入方面提出相关的建议,旨在推动公租房民间融资的可持续发展。     

基于Logit模型的城市非户籍人口购房行为影响因素分析——以厦门市为例

购房和租房是城市居民实现住房消费的两种主要手段。结合厦门市房地产租购市场,通过实地问卷调查,提出非厦门户籍人口购买住房行为的影响因素;同时,应用Logit模型对影响因素进行回归分析和假设检验,得到预期房价、住房归属感、迁移可能性、工作稳定性、在厦门居住时间、购房首付的承受能力等是显著的正面影响因素。     

The situation in currency markets in the CIS countries in 2009

The situation with currency markets in the CIS countries in 2009 was characterized by considerable fluctuations in national currencies against the background of the major problems in the financial sector, economic recession in most countries, slowing inflation in the consumer market, and deflation in prices of manufactured goods.     

Racial steering in urban housing markets: A review of the audit evidence

A secondary analysis of thirty-six fair housing audits conducted between 1974 and 1987 reveals that racial steering has been a widespread, consequential phenomenon in many urban housing markets during the last decade. It is difficult from extant work to assess precisely its incidence nationally in the home sales sector because sites reporting such data have had atypically active fair housing enforcement efforts. It appears, however, that selective commentary by agents has been practiced as much if not more than differential patterns of home-showings. The consequence of this steering rarely has been to limit the number or concentration of geographic alternatives available to black auditors. Nor have all their options in predominantly white communities typically been precluded. Rather, steering in the sales sector most often has constituted a failure to show white auditors options in areas (and school districts) with nontrivial proportions of minority residents, and a propensity to show black auditors disproportionate numbers of homes in areas currently possessing or expected to possess significant proportions of minority residents. Limited evidence suggests that steering has occurred often in the rental apartment sector, although its consequences have yet to be ascertained in a systematic fashion. Implications of the findings for racial stability in neighborhoods and for fair housing policy are discussed.     

What Drives Ireland’s Housing Market? A Bayesian DSGE Approach

We study the drivers of fluctuations in the Irish housing market by developing and estimating a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of Ireland as a member of the European Economic Monetary Union (EMU). We estimate the model with Bayesian methods using time series for both Ireland and the rest of the EMU for the period from 1997:Q1 to 2008:Q2. We find that housing preference and technology shocks are the main drivers of fluctuations in house prices and residential investment. A standard regression analysis shows that a good part of the variation of housing preference shocks can be explained by unmodeled demand factors that have been considered in the empirical literature as important determinants of Irish house prices.     

我国居民住房租赁核算的方法选择

本文通过对联合国国民经济核算体系(SNA)中有关住房租赁核算方法的分析,比较了虚拟折旧成本法、市场租金法和使用成本法的条件和优劣,应用使用成本法对我国重点是上海、北京、广州、深圳的住房租赁活动进行了核算。结果表明,2010年北京、上海、广州和深圳的城镇居民住房支出占GDP的比重达到了9%～17%,明显高出全国城镇居民的平均水平。     

Housing Wealth and Household Portfolios in an Ageing Society

Summary  Housing is one of the most important consumption goods, also for the elderly. For owner–occupiers, housing equity is moreover usually the most important asset in their investment portfolio, and hence, household wealth of the elderly is extremely sensitive to developments on the housing market. This panel paper surveys the literature on housing as a consumption good and asset category over the life cycle and moreover presents stylised facts on the housing market behavior of Dutch households over their life cycle. Although many of the issues discussed also occur in other countries, the Dutch housing market is used as a background o the review.      

应用BOT模式发展公共租赁住房探析

公共租赁住房是我国住房保障体系的重要组成部分,从各地实践来看,资金问题是其可持续发展的瓶颈。文章从公共租赁住房准公共产品特征及BOT模式应用条件入手,系统分析应用BOT模式发展公共租赁住房在需求、政策环境、经济上的可行性。结合理论和案例分析,作者还提出了吸引企业参与公共租赁住房建设运营的建议。