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1.
Abstract  The early history of correspondence analysis is reviewed. It is shown that K. P earson came very close to discovering correspondence analysis in 1906. That he did not actually discover it may be because he was not familiar with the singular value decomposition, which is the basic existence result in correspondence analysis.  相似文献   

2.
  总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
The earliest known written work on earthquake theory was written by Aristotle (c. 330 B.C.). Aristotle had collected a lot of earthquake data and therefore we assume (or rather speculate) he had to organize, to classify and to summarize them in order to use and describe them in his work. With respect to the history of Statistics, the Aristotelian text on earthquake theory is probably the earliest written application of statistical tables on collected data.  相似文献   

3.
    
A Treatise on Probability was published by John Maynard Keynes in 1921. The Treatise contains a critical assessment of the philosophical foundations of probability and of the statistical methodology at the time. We review the aspects of the book that are most related with statistics, avoiding uninteresting neophyte's forrays into philosophical issues. In particular, we examine the arguments provided by Keynes against the Bayesian approach, as well as the sketchy alternative of a return to Lexis' theory of analogies he proposes. Our conclusion is that the Treatise is a scholarly piece of work looking at past advances rather than producing directions for the future.  相似文献   

4.
    
This paper deals with the history of the nineteenth century Dutch statistical society: \"Vereeniging voor de Statistiek\", founded in 1857. In the second half of the nineteenth century the society flourished and had a considerable amount of members. It played a very active role for the establishment of a central official statistical bureau: \"Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek\". These activities ended with success in 1892. Then the society changed its name and did no longer engage itself with statistics. Members of the statistical society thought of statistics as facts about society, mostly numerical, but not always. They hoped to discover the laws which ruled society, by means of statistics. In that way the social sciences would improve.  相似文献   

5.
The nature of data is rapidly changing. Data sets are becoming increasingly large and complex. Modern methodology for analyzing these new types of data are emerging from the fields of Data Base Managment, Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, Pattern Recognition, and Data Visualization. So far Statistics as a field has played a minor role. This paper explores some of the reasons for this, and why statisticians should have an interest in participating in the development of new methods for large and complex data sets.  相似文献   

6.
    
It is evident from recent issues of journals like Psychometrika and Applied Psychological Measurement that the Dutch contribution to the development of the area of measurement and scaling is considerable. In the first part of this paper, we try to answer the question how this could happen. In the early development De Groot in Amsterdam and Van de Geer in Leiden created an academic climate that made it possible for many researchers to develop their skills. Some other possible reasons are sketched for the flourishing of this area in the Netherlands, but it is difficult to assess which reasons were most important. In the second part of the paper, we analyze the international impact of the Dutch contribution by a citation analysis in four fields of measurement and scaling: factor analysis, test theory including item response theory, latent class analysis, and optimal scaling and multidimensional scaling. It appears that Dutch researchers not only publish a lot, but also that the impact of their publications is at the same level as publications produced world-wide.  相似文献   

7.
    
Dynamic processes are crucial in many empirical fields, such as in oceanography, climate science, and engineering. Processes that evolve through time are often well described by systems of ordinary differential equations (ODEs). Fitting ODEs to data has long been a bottleneck because the analytical solution of general systems of ODEs is often not explicitly available. We focus on a class of inference techniques that uses smoothing to avoid direct integration. In particular, we develop a Bayesian smooth-and-match strategy that approximates the ODE solution while performing Bayesian inference on the model parameters. We incorporate in the strategy two main sources of uncertainty: the noise level of the measured observations and the model approximation error. We assess the performance of the proposed approach in an extensive simulation study and on a canonical data set of neuronal electrical activity.  相似文献   

8.
    
Malaria is a leading cause of infectious disease and death worldwide. As a common example of a vector‐borne disease, malaria could be greatly affected by the influence of climate change. Climate impacts the transmission of malaria in several ways, affecting all stages of the disease's development. Using various weather‐related factors that influence climate change, this study utilizes statistical analysis to determine the effect of climate change on reported malaria rates in an African region with endemic malaria. It examines the relationship between malaria prevalence and climate in western Africa using spatial regression modeling and tests for correlation. Our analysis suggests that minimal correlation exists between reported malaria rates and climate in western Africa. This analysis further contradicts the prevailing theory that climate and malaria prevalence are closely linked and negates the idea that climate change will increase malaria transmission in this region.  相似文献   

9.
Microsimulation of Business Performance   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
Microsimulation of business performance based on sample survey data is a relatively underdeveloped field, but its application in government economic policy formulation is potentially great since it can be used to measure the distributional effects of change rather than just average change. Techniques which account for the dynamic response of businesses to macro level price expectations have recently been developed (Kokic et al. , 1993). These allow individual level business performance to be forecast from sample survey data. In this paper we outline a general methodology for combining these forecasting techniques with Monte Carlo simulation in order to produce a microsimulation of business performance that accurately captures the true distributional characteristics of the underling survey data. Applying this methodology to Australian farm survey data, we show that these methods may be used to forecast the distribution of farm business production and performance within arbitrary subdomains of the surveyed population conditional on a given set of expected commodity price outcomes. The microsimulations reflect both the uncertainty due to climatic variation from one year to the next, which in the Australian context depends largely on geographic location, as well as the uncertainty of commodity prices.  相似文献   

10.
在某型高炮随动系统的测试中,待测信号有非时变信号和时变信号两种。本文根据这两种信号的特点,对比分析了一阶差分法、多项式逼近法和线性回归法,对每种方法的处理方式进行了研究,得到了以上两种信号的处理方法。  相似文献   

11.
统计学是以现象的数量特征为研究对象,利用自身特有的方法,发现现象的规律的一门方法论科学。统计学包含着丰富的一系列辩证统一的思想,有平均思想、差异思想、估计思想、相关思想、拟合思想以及检验思想。文中主要是讲差异思想和平均思想的关系。  相似文献   

12.
We consider an initial linear model E(Y)=B a and an augmented model E(Y)=B a+C b. We show that, if a design is optimal for estimating K a in the initial model, then there exists a matrix L such that this design is also optimal for estimating K a+L b in the augmented model. Received: December 1998  相似文献   

13.
    
This paper provides a discussion of an unpublished set of notes written in 1942 by the Dutch astronomer H.C. VAN DE HULST. In these notes VAN DE HULST derives the asymptotic variances of M– estimators as well as trimmed means and concludes that the asymptotic variance of what is now called HUBER'S estimator is the same as that of a trimmed mean. This conclusion is usually ascribed to BICKEL (1965). A letter written by D. VAN DANTZIG in 1943 providing a critical evaluation of. VAN DE HULST'S results, adds interest to this suprisingly early contribution to the theory of robust statistics.  相似文献   

14.
基于1997~2012年上海市港口货物吞吐量和GDP、第二产业、第三产业之间的定量关系,建立了线性回归模型,讨论了港口物流业与地方经济两者间紧密的相关关系。通过对相关数据的实证分析可以看到,港口物流与地方的经济增长呈现较强的正相关关系,港口集装箱吞吐量每增长1%,可带动当地GDP增长0.33%。文中最后针对上海市港口物流业的进一步发展提出了政策建议。  相似文献   

15.
    
In this article, we propose a new identifiability condition by using the logarithmic calibration for the distortion measurement error models, where neither the response variable nor the covariates can be directly observed but are measured with multiplicative measurement errors. Under the logarithmic calibration, the direct-plug-in estimators of parameters and empirical likelihood based confidence intervals are proposed, and we studied the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators. For the hypothesis testing of parameter, a restricted estimator under the null hypothesis and a test statistic are proposed. The asymptotic properties for the restricted estimator and test statistic are established. Simulation studies demonstrate the performance of the proposed procedure and a real example is analyzed to illustrate its practical usage.  相似文献   

16.
Abstract

The main aim of this paper is to provide a spatial modelling framework for income estimation through the application of a contemporary spatial analysis technique. The application refers to the modelling of mean recorded household income in the area covered by the postcodes of the municipality of Athens in 2001. The main findings suggest that there is a very strong relationship between the proportion of people with a postgraduate qualification (namely, a Master's degree or PhD) and mean household income. Furthermore, there is evidence that this relationship is not stationary across space. This finding allows a better understanding as well as modelling of the main determinants of income in Athens.  相似文献   

17.
    
The work presents a robust approach to labor share analysis. The estimate of labor share presents various complexities related to the nature of the data sets to be analyzed. Typically, labor share is evaluated by using discriminant analysis and linear or generalized linear models, that do not take into account the presence of possible outliers. Moreover, the variables to be considered are often characterized by a high dimensional structure. The proposed approach has the objective of improving the estimation of the model using robust multivariate regression techniques and data transformation.  相似文献   

18.
    
This paper considers linear regression models when neither the response variable nor the covariates can be directly observed, but are measured with multiplicative distortion measurement errors. We propose new identifiability conditions for the distortion functions via the varying coefficient models, then moment-based estimators of parameters in the model are proposed by using the estimated varying coefficient functions. This method does not require the independence condition between the confounding variables and the unobserved response and variables. We establish the connections among the varying coefficient based estimators, the conditional mean calibration and the conditional absolute mean calibration. We study the asymptotic results of these proposed estimators, and discuss their asymptotic efficiencies. Lastly, we make some comparisons among the proposed estimators through the simulation. These methods are applied to analyze a real dataset for an illustration.  相似文献   

19.
    
We consider the estimation and hypothesis testing problems for the partial linear regression models when some variables are distorted with errors by some unknown functions of commonly observable confounding variable. The proposed estimation procedure is designed to accommodate undistorted as well as distorted variables. To test a hypothesis on the parametric components, a restricted least squares estimator is proposed under the null hypothesis. Asymptotic properties for the estimators are established. A test statistic based on the difference between the residual sums of squares under the null and alternative hypotheses is proposed, and we also obtain the asymptotic properties of the test statistic. A wild bootstrap procedure is proposed to calculate critical values. Simulation studies are conducted to demonstrate the performance of the proposed procedure, and a real example is analyzed for an illustration.  相似文献   

20.
    
This paper considers a continuous three-phase polynomial regression model with two threshold points for dependent data with heteroscedasticity. We assume the model is polynomial of order zero in the middle regime, and is polynomial of higher orders elsewhere. We denote this model by ℳ 2 $$ {mathcal{M}}_2 $$ , which includes models with one or no threshold points, denoted by ℳ 1 $$ {mathcal{M}}_1 $$ and ℳ 0 $$ {mathcal{M}}_0 $$ , respectively, as special cases. We provide an ordered iterative least squares (OiLS) method when estimating ℳ 2 $$ {mathcal{M}}_2 $$ and establish the consistency of the OiLS estimators under mild conditions. When the underlying model is ℳ 1 $$ {mathcal{M}}_1 $$ and is ( d 0 − 1 ) $$ left({d}_0-1right) $$ th-order differentiable but not d 0 $$ {d}_0 $$ th-order differentiable at the threshold point, we further show the O p ( N − 1 / ( d 0 + 2 ) ) $$ {O}_pleft({N}^{-1/left({d}_0+2right)}right) $$ convergence rate of the OiLS estimators, which can be faster than the O p ( N − 1 / ( 2 d 0 ) ) $$ {O}_pleft({N}^{-1/left(2{d}_0right)}right) $$ convergence rate given in Feder when d 0 ≥ 3 $$ {d}_0ge 3 $$ . We also apply a model-selection procedure for selecting ℳ κ $$ {mathcal{M}}_{kappa } $$ ; κ = 0 , 1 , 2 $$ kappa =0,1,2 $$ . When the underlying model exists, we establish the selection consistency under the aforementioned conditions. Finally, we conduct simulation experiments to demonstrate the finite-sample performance of our asymptotic results.  相似文献   

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