Does aging influence structural change? Evidence from panel data

Our study represents a first attempt to single out the effects of aging on the entire structure of the economy that is approximated by employment shares in different sectors. We find that even after controlling for the effects of other relevant factors - e.g., income per capita, share of trade in GDP, government consumption share in GDP, population size - aging does have a statistically significant differentiated impact on the employment shares. In particular, we find that an increase in aging exerts a statistically significant adverse effect on the employment shares in agriculture, manufacturing, construction, and mining and quarrying industries. At the same time, an increasing share of the elderly (decreasing share of the youth) in society positively affects employment shares in community, social, and personal services as well as in the financial sector.     

Does easy availability of cash affect corruption? Evidence from a panel of countries

Using annual panel data of 54 countries for the period 2005-14, we examine whether currency in circulation, both aggregate and in large denominations, affects the level of corruption in a country. Standard panel data models suggest that the ratios of (i) aggregate currency in circulation to M1 and, (ii) large denomination banknotes to M1 are both statistically significant determinants of corruption. Tests for reverse causality within a panel Granger framework reveal a uni-directional causality of corruption with the first variable, but a bi-directional one with the second. These findings suggest that a limitation in the supply of high-denomination banknotes, inter alia, could be a tool to fight corruption, and bring to the fore the important role of payment systems, extending an earlier study by Goel and Mehrotra (2012). The results also highlight that, along with the government, the central bank of an economy can also play an important role in the fight against corruption.     

Does financial development stimulate environmental sustainability? Evidence from a panel study of 115 countries

This paper investigates the moderation effect of financial development (FD) on the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC). Using comprehensive panel data of 115 countries spanning the 1990–2016 period and dividing the countries into different income groups, the researcher found systematic differences in the relationship between significant indicators of environmental degradation and economic growth. More specifically, the interaction effect of FD on the relationship between gross domestic product (GDP) growth and CO₂ emissions are positive; nevertheless, the interaction effect of FD on the relationship between GDP squared and CO₂ emissions become negative for all income groups and therefore supports the EKC. Moreover, the interaction effect of FD is negative on the relationship of GDP with both CH₄ and PM_2.5 emissions in the middle‐income groups, whereas the interaction effect of FD on the relationship between GDP squared and PM_2.5 emissions are negative for the high‐income group. Our results suggest that FD can reduce environmental degradation without adversely impacting on growth.     

Do bailouts buy votes? Evidence from a panel of Hessian municipalities

I study whether bailouts of local governments carry electoral benefits for state governments with a dataset covering 421 municipalities in the German state of Hesse over the period 1999–2011. I find that past bailouts have no economically significant effect on the municipality-level vote share of the parties that formed the state government in subsequent state elections. On the other hand, bailouts lead to vote increases for the ruling parties in subsequent local elections. On balance, these results suggest that electoral concerns are not the reason why central governments find it difficult to commit to a no-bailout policy.     

Can innovation improve income inequality? Evidence from panel data

Income inequality is a source of social instability and armed conflict, which in turn are detrimental to economic development. This study examines the role of innovation in income inequality in twenty-three developed countries, using a panel mean group estimator that takes cross-sectional dependence into consideration. Three income inequality indicators are used: the Standardized World Income Inequality Database (SWIID), the University of Texas Inequality Project (UTIP), and the Estimated Household Income Inequality (EHII). The innovation indicators are patent applications and patents granted. The empirical results based on the common correlated effect mean group (CCEMG) reveal that innovation widens income inequality. We also investigate whether the innovation–income inequality nexus is subject to a country’s level of globalization and financial development. The findings suggest that the interaction terms between innovation with these two variables have positive effects on income inequality, whereas innovation failed to reduce income inequality. Globalization and financial development are found to drive income inequality. The empirical results are robust to different income inequality and innovation measures as well as estimation techniques.     

Do retail mergers affect competition? Evidence from grocery retailing

This study estimates the price effects of horizontal mergers in the U.S. grocery retailing industry. We examine fourteen regions affected by mergers, including mergers in highly concentrated and relatively unconcentrated markets. We identify price effects by comparing markets affected by mergers to unaffected markets using difference‐in‐difference estimation with three different comparison groups, propensity score weights, and by using the synthetic control method. Our results are robust to the choice of control group and estimation technique. We find that mergers in highly concentrated markets are most frequently associated with price increases, and mergers in less concentrated markets are most often associated with price decreases.     

Does algorithmic trading harm liquidity? Evidence from Brazil

This paper provides the first evidence of algorithmic trading (AT) reducing liquidity in the Brazilian equities market. Our results are contrary to the majority of work which finds a positive relationship between AT and liquidity. Using the adoption of a new data center for the B3 exchange as an exogenous shock, we report evidence that AT increased realized spreads in both firm fixed-effects and vector autoregression estimates for 26 stocks between 2017 and 2018 using high-frequency data. We also provide evidence that AT increases commonality in liquidity, evidencing correlated transactions between automated traders.     

Does mutual fund disclosure at banks matter? Evidence from a survey of investors

This paper examines the responses from a survey of investors who purchased mutual funds from banks and elsewhere. We find that bank-channel investors are less financially literate than those investors purchasing funds through other distribution channels. Using a treatment-effects econometric model, however, we also find that purchasing only through banks actually raised the knowledge level of these investors. This result suggests that the increased focus on disclosure at banks has had a positive effect on investor financial literacy, and that disclosure requirements in the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act of 1999 are likely to be beneficial. However, investor financial literacy still needs improvement.     

Does taxation on harmful products influence population health? Evidence from Africa using the dynamic panel system GMM approach

Products such as tobacco and alcohol are known to be deleterious to human health. Tobacco use for instance, causes over eight million deaths annually worldwide. This has necessitated the imposition of taxes on such harmful products aimed at reducing their demand and hence ensure enhanced population health. However, while the effects of such taxes on deaths related to the consumption of these products have been given much attention, very little attention has been given to how these taxes enhance overall population health beyond these related deaths. Using tobacco tax as a proxy for taxation on harmful products and life expectancy as a proxy for overall population health, this study, examines the effect of taxing harmful products on population health in 38 African countries from 2008–2018. The system Generalized Methods of Moments (GMM) regression is employed as the empirical estimation technique. The findings of the study show that, taxing harmful products enhances population health both in the short-run and long-run periods. The implication is that, governments, especially those in Africa, can use taxation on harmful products to improve population health even beyond deaths related to the consumption of these products.

     

Does the labor-income process contain a unit root? Evidence from individual-specific time series

Calibrations of models related to life-cycle behavior of consumption and saving often invoke the important assumption of a unit root in individuals׳ labor-income process. We for the first time test this assumption using methods for univariate time series. Based on longitudinal register data from 1968 to 2005, we first estimate an autoregressive model for each individual using a method for approximately median-unbiased estimation. We then exploit the resulting distribution of the individual-specific estimates to draw inference about the presence of a unit root. Results indicate that earnings for the representative worker are governed by a process where shocks to earnings have moderate persistence and are both economically and statistically significantly different from having permanent effects. These results question the heavy use of unit-root processes for earnings.     

Does Ethnic Discrimination Vary Across Minority Groups? Evidence from a Field Experiment*

We conduct a large‐scale field experiment to measure labour market discrimination in Australia, one quarter of whose population was born overseas. To denote ethnicity, we use distinctively Anglo‐Saxon, Indigenous, Italian, Chinese and Middle Eastern names. We compare multiple ethnic groups, rather than a single minority as in most other studies. In all cases we applied for entry‐level jobs and submitted a CV indicating that the candidate attended high school in Australia. We find significant differences in callback rates: ethnic minority candidates would need to apply for more jobs in order to receive the same number of interviews. These differences vary systematically across ethnic groups.     

Does local government competition aggravate haze pollution? A new perspective of factor market distortion

Haze pollution has become a new threat to China's sustainable development, but it may be that local government behaviour can play an important role in the prevention and control of pollutants. A dynamic spatial autoregressive (SAR) model is used to study the relationship between local government competition and haze pollution. To further explore the indirect impact of factor market distortion on haze pollution and control potential endogeneity problems, a newly developed intermediary effect model that incorporates the characteristics of the generalized method of moments (GMM) is utilized to explore how factor market distortion indirectly affects haze pollution. The research results show that regional haze pollution in China is characterized by significant spatial correlation, and local government competition has a positive impact on haze pollution; that is, local government competition exacerbates haze pollution. In general, local government competition not only directly leads to an increase in haze pollution but also further intensifies it by distorting the local factor market, and the intermediary role of factor market distortion is approximately 7.04%. The results of the regional inspection found that competition among local governments in the eastern region did not lead to haze pollution, and distortion of the factor market did not exist as an intermediary effect. However, both direct and intermediary effects are significant in the central and western regions. Therefore, an official performance appraisal system that includes ecological constraints should be established to guide the benign transformation of local government competition, and an environmental management mechanism must be developed for joint prevention and control to reduce haze pollution. In addition, the free flow of factors and marketization are equally important.     

Does high-speed railway promote urban innovation? Evidence from China

Empirical discussion in the existing literature on the relationship between transportation infrastructure and innovation remains limited. As one of the most important transport infrastructures, China's high-speed railway (HSR) has greatly compressed the space-time distance and strengthened the linkages between cities, which may contribute to innovation activities. Using the panel data of 285 Chinese prefecture-level and above cities and employing the difference-in-differences (DID) model, this paper examines the impact of HSR opening and HSR service intensity on the urban innovation. Propensity score matching (PSM) together with DID (PSM-DID) method is utilized to address the potential estimation biases. The empirical results demonstrate that HSR has significantly improved the level of urban innovation. Heterogeneity analysis finds that the promotion effects of HSR on innovation are more remarkable in peripheral and small cities. Moreover, the effects of HSR on cities far away from the central and large cities are with higher significance and greater magnitude than cities close to central and large cities. For cities near central and large cities, the service intensity of HSR is more likely to improve their innovation level. In addition, we further find that service industries and private enterprises benefit more from the effect of HSR in promoting innovation. This study can provide robust evidence for the effect of HSR on promoting urban innovation, as well as policy enlightenment for innovation growth and sustainable economic development.     

Is there a unit root in the inflation rate? Evidence from sequential break and panel data models

Using sequential trend break and panel data models, we investigate the unit root hypothesis for the inflation rates of thirteen OECD countries. With individual country tests, we find evidence of stationarity in only four of the thirteen countries. The results are more striking with the panel data model. We can strongly reject the unit root hypothesis both for a panel of all thirteen countries and for a number of smaller panels consisting of as few as three countries. The non-rejection of the unit root hypothesis for inflation is very fragile to even a small amount of cross-section variation. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Does faith move stock markets? Evidence from Saudi Arabia

This paper investigates the effects of religious beliefs on stock prices. Our findings support the viewpoint that the religious tenets have important bearing on portfolio choices of investors. It is found that Shariah-compliant stocks have higher return and volatility than their non-Shariah compliant counterparts.     

What drives returns to euro area housing? Evidence from a dynamic dividend–discount model

We apply a dynamic dividend–discount model to analyse housing returns for eight euro area countries comprising over 90% of euro area GDP, both individually and as a panel. A vector autoregressive model (VAR) is estimated for four variables – excess return to housing, rents, the real interest rate and real disposable per capita income – using quarterly data over the period 1978–2009. This empirical investigation – which allows for a decomposition of house price movements into movements in rent (cash-flow) and expected return news components – indicates that the bulk of the variability of euro area house price movements can be attributed to movements in fundamentals. There remains nonetheless an important but less sizeable influence of market-wide (or expected-return) variations in house prices. Country-specific estimation indicates considerable heterogeneity around the euro area result, both for what concerns long-term impacts and dynamics. Notably, changes in expected returns play a relatively strong role in the house prices of Ireland and Spain.     

A model of selective tendering: Does bidding competition deter opportunism by contractors?

Under contractual incompleteness, a bid-taker is obliged to depend on a self-enforcing contract where a winning bidder puts his reputation at stake. In this case the winning bidder will renege on contractual obligations if any one-shot gain from opportunism is greater than a long-term gain from maintaining his reputation. Since the long-term gain is decreasing in the number of competing bidders, excessive bidding competition may provoke the winning bidder's opportunism. We derive an optimum number of bidders which ensures the self-enforcing contract at the lowest expected procurement cost. We also show how excessive bidding competition leads to the phenomenon of cost overruns.     

Does organisational capital influence environmental strategies? Evidence from environmental innovation

As a result of increasing consumer awareness and stakeholder demands about environmental management, firms face stricter challenges surrounding the impact of business operations on the environment. In this regards, environmental innovation is one of the important ways of acting in harmony with the environment. Thus, the purpose of this study is to examine the impact of organisational capital on environmental innovation measured as the process innovation and product innovation. Using environmental innovation data from ASSET4 for the US listed firms between 2002 and 2018, our empirical results reveal a significant positive association between organisational capital and both the process innovation and product innovation. Furthermore, the relationship is stronger in high-profitability and sensitive industries subsamples. These results are robust to additional control variables and endogeneity tests. This study, while endorsing the resource-based view (RBV), provides important implications for the top management teams that organisational capital could be an important channel through which managers can boost environmental innovation.     

Does transaction activity predict Bitcoin returns? Evidence from quantile-on-quantile analysis

This paper uses the quantile-on-quantile regression to examine the predictive power of transaction activity for Bitcoin returns over the period from January 2013 to December 2018. We measure the Bitcoin transaction activity using trading volumes, the number of unique Bitcoin transactions, and the number of unique Bitcoin addresses. Considering the onset of structural breaks, we identify considerable effects of the heterogeneity concerning the quantiles of transaction activity, which cannot be depicted fully by the traditional quantile regression method. The empirical results show that higher transaction activity tends to predict higher/lower Bitcoin returns when the market is in a bullish/bearish state. We find that the nexus is asymmetric across quantiles, depending on the sign and size of the transaction activity, and the predictive relationship intensifies in the upper or lower quantiles of the conditional distribution. In addition, this empirical evidence is in line with the volume-return association in the equity market due to private informative and noninformative trading actions. Overall, our findings suggest that transaction activity-based strategies should be made with respect to Bitcoin market performance, specifically during extreme conditions.     

Does employment protection help immigrants? Evidence from European labor markets

High levels of employment protection reduce hiring and firing and have a theoretically ambiguous effect on the employment level. Immigrants, being new to the labor market, may be less aware of employment protection regulations and less likely to claim their rights, which may create a gap between the costs for employers of hiring a native relative to hiring an immigrant. This paper tests that hypothesis drawing on evidence for the EU and on two natural experiments for Spain and Italy. The results suggest that strict employment protection legislation (EPL) gives immigrants a comparative advantage relative to natives. Stricter EPL is found to reduce employment and reduce hiring and firing rates for natives. By contrast, stricter EPL has a much smaller effect on immigrants.