Globalization, Poverty, and Inequality since 1980

One of the most contentious issues of globalization is the effectof global economic integration on inequality and poverty. Thisarticle documents five trends in the modern era of globalization,starting around 1980. The first trend is that growth rates inpoor economies have accelerated and are higher than growth ratesin rich countries for the first time in modern history. Developingcountries’ per capita incomes grew more than 3.5 percenta year in the 1990s. Second, the number of extremely poor peoplein the world has declined significantly—by 375 millionpeople since 1981—for the time in history. The share ofpeople in developing economies living on less than $1 a dayhas been cut in half since 1981, though the decline in the shareliving on less than $2 per day was much less dramatic. Third,global inequality has declined modestly, reversing a 200-yeartrend toward higher inequality. Fourth, within-country inequalityin general is not growing, though it has risen in several populouscountries (China, India, the United States). Fifth, wage inequalityis rising worldwide. This may seem to contradict the fourthtrend, but it does not because there is no simple link betweenwage inequality and household income inequality. Furthermore,the trends toward faster growth and poverty reduction are strongestin developing economies that have integrated with the globaleconomy most rapidly, which supports the view that integrationhas been a positive force for improving the lives of peoplein developing areas.      

城乡居民消费差异与收入不平等研究——来自中国1978～2007年的经验证据

长期以来,消费理论研究是宏观经济增长研究的重点内容,发展经济学的重要研究领域,微观经济学消费行为研究的核心内容。本文分析延续从消费差异论到消费决定论,最后回归消费增长论的逻辑主线。借助1978～2007年的城乡居民消费及相关经济数据,依据消费的持久收入假设,估计了城乡居民消费函数,发现两者差异主要来自持久收入和自发性消费的影响。基于VAR模型的参数估计结果表明:城乡消费不仅在消费水平和增长率决定因素方面存在显著差异,并且在自身冲击和收入冲击的效应方面亦存在显著差异;在影响农村居民消费增加的众多因素中,收入增加成为关键因素。城乡收入不平等以及农村内部的不平等都使得刺激农村消费需求面临困境,而回归农村经济发展以及收入分配的增量改革和存量调整都是解决困境的重要途径。     

国外公共住房金融政策概述及对我国的启示

针对中低收入家庭与住房市场价格的巨大差距之间的问题,各国均采取了解决中低收入家庭住房问题的公共住房政策。本文介绍了美、德、新和俄各国公共住房金融政策的特点,并对其效果做出简单的评价,在此基础上阐述对我国公共住房金融政策的启示。     

Poverty in Eastern Europe in the Years of Crisis, 1978 to 1987: Poland, Hungary, and Yugoslavia

Eastern Europe experienced an economic crisis between 1978 and1987. Declining income led to substantial increases in povertyrates in Poland and Yugoslavia, while poverty in Hungary remainedat about the same level as before the crisis. In all three countriesurban poverty increased, as the economic condition of statesector workers deteriorated to a much greater extent than thatof agricultural and mixed households. The increased povertywas entirely explained by declining income, because the overallincome distribution did not change or in some cases improved.     

我国精准扶贫中的公共投资减贫效应研究

本文运用2002年-2016年中国政府对贫困地区的相关投资与收入数据,通过向量误差修正模型和向量自回归模型对公共投资的减贫效应进行分析。实证结果显示:公共支出与精准扶贫战略对人均纯收入有显著的正向促进作用。各项公共投资结构中,基础性公共投资和经济性公共投资均对人均纯收入有正向促进作用,精准扶贫战略主要改善了基础性公共投资的减贫效应。通过滞后动态研究表明,基础性公共投资和公益性公共投资对贫困地区人均纯收入有着长期的促进作用,经济性公共投资短期内对人均纯收入起促进作用。依据上述结论,本文提出了相关的政策建议。     

强制性制度变迁与盈余稳健性——来自深沪证券市场的经验证据

本文以1995—2004年深沪两市全部A股上市公司为研究样本,考察会计制度的强制性变迁是否显著提高我国上市公司会计盈余的稳健性。研究结果显示,1995—1997期间上市公司会计盈余不具有稳健性,意在提高上市公司稳健性水平的《股份有限公司会计制度》的实施并未实质性增强1998—2000期间会计盈余的稳健性水平,而更为积极贯彻国际通行的稳健会计政策的《企业会计制度》的实施则显著提升了2001-2004期间我国上市公司会计盈余的稳健性。然而,单独对盈利公司所作的进一步检验却表明,2001—2004期间会计盈余显示的稳健性特征主要是由于亏损公司"洗大澡"造成的。研究结果表明,单纯转变会计准则并不能改善会计信息的质量,除非附以相配套的强有力的法律和执行机制。     

The Evolution of Poverty and Inequality in Indian Villages

This paper examines the evolution of poverty and inequalityin rural India by reviewing longitudinal village studies. Itexplores the main forces of economic change—agriculturalintensification, changing land relations, and occupational diversification—froma wide range of disciplinary perspectives, and it considersthe roles of various institutions as conduits of change. Althoughmost village studies support the survey-based judgment thatrural poverty declined in India during the 1970s and 1980s,they find that progress has been slow and irregular and thatinequalities within villages have persisted. These continuedinequalities may constrain both the scope for further povertyreduction from economic growth and the impact of policy interventions.      

中国财政政策宏观经济效应的实证检验:1978-2004

本文从财政政策是否有效、财政政策是否存在时滞、财政政策的挤出效应如何等三个层面，基于VAR模型的Granger因果关系检验方法，分析了我国财政政策相关变量之间的关系。实证结果显示，财政政策各层变量之间存在层层推进的因果关系，怛部分变量的关联与理论的吻合性较差。总体来看，中国的财政政策从其宏观效应来分析是有救的，但存在挤出效应，而且时滞较为明显。     

William Vickrey: Contributions to Public Policy

This article introduces the reader to the full range of William Vickrey's contributions to economics from a public policy perspective. It is organized in similar manner to the book Public Economics: Selected Papers by William Vickrey; it examines Vickrey's public policy contributions to social choice and allocation mechanisms, taxation, marginal-cost pricing, urban transportation, urban economics, and macroeconomic policy.     

Trade Policy and Poverty Reduction in Brazil

A multiregion computable general equilibrium model is used toevaluate the regional, multilateral, and unilateral trade policyoptions of Mercosur from the perspective of the welfare of allpotential partners in several proposed agreements. The focusfor Brazil is on poverty impacts. The results show that thepoorest households in Brazil experience gains of 1.5–5.5percent of their consumption, which are about three to fourtimes the average gains for Brazil. Protection in Brazil favorscapital-intensive manufacturing relative to unskilled labor-intensiveagriculture and manufacturing. So trade liberalization raisesthe return to unskilled labor relative to capital and disproportionatelyhelps the poor.     

中国公共预算约束软化的体制成因：理论分析与实证检验

科学和民主的预算管理制度建立前,税制和分税制对政府预算约束有重要作用。中国税制和分税制缺乏内生约束机制,地方政府有空间和激励突破预算框架参与过度财政竞争,使公共预算约束软化。根据公共预算软约束的估计和面板 probit模型,1994年的税制和分税制改革整体硬化了全国预算收入约束,但导致东部的预算收入约束软化,且未改善预算支出约束。现行税制和分税制下,不规范的税收优惠政策、投资扩张冲动和专项转移支出依赖是导致公共预算约束软化的重要机制。     

Growth, Income Inequality, and Fiscal Policy: What Are the Relevant Trade-offs?

We develop an endogenous growth model with elastic labor supply, in which agents differ in their initial endowments of physical capital. In this context, the growth rate and the distribution of income are jointly determined. We then examine the distributional impact of different ways of financing an investment subsidy. Policies aimed at increasing the growth rate result in a more unequal distribution of pre-tax income, consistent with the positive correlation between income inequality and growth observed in the recent empirical literature. However, there is no conflict between efficiency and equity if inequality is measured in terms of the distribution of welfare.     

International Trends in Income Inequality and Social Policy

In most OECD-countries income inequality has increased during the last two decades. In this paper, we investigate whether changes in the overall distribution of income can be attributed to social policy measures. For most (but not all) countries we find a possible relationship between changing welfare state policies (as measured by expenditure ratios and replacement rates) and changing income inequality. Especially the United Kingdom and the Netherlands combined an above-average rise in inequality with a reduction in the generosity of the welfare system.A more elaborate budget incidence analysis for the Netherlands indicates that in the period 1981–1997 inequality of disposable household income increased sharply. The two main forces behind this phenomenon were a more unequal distribution of market incomes and changes in social transfers. Fundamental social security reforms in the Netherlands indeed seem to have made the income distribution less equal. However, income inequality in the Netherlands is still below the OECD average at the end of the observed period.     

中国金融发展的地区差距状况分析(1978-1999)

对中国各地区1978－1999年金融资产相关比率（FIR）及其他指标的计算结果表明：中国金融发展具有国家垄断、信贷供给制、机构科层设置、资源条块分割、金融深化迅速、金融资产高增长弹性、金融发展不平衡性显著、存货比逐步下降等典型特征。金融发展地区差距具有先缩小后扩大、金融差距超过财政差距和经济差距、存货比下降幅度明显不同等特征。中国分权化改革中，中央财政能力的下降是以中国金融控制能力的上升为前提的，中国牺牲了金融业的改革与发展，保证了渐进式改革的持续推进。中国金融业目前的发展现状，是对麦金农教授“中国之谜”的最有力解释。地方政府支配金融机构的意愿和能力伴随中国的分权化改革而增强，并带来了中国金融改革的惰性，导致了资源配置的双重失效，也使得中国的金融市场化改革变成了旷日持久的游戏。只有加快金融业开放步伐，改善政府治理结构，将政府在财政能力上的缺位变为到位，在金融发展上的越位变为归位，才能真正启动中国的金融市场化改革。     

改革开放以来我国金融扶贫的 政策演进、特色模式与成效

金融扶贫是扶贫开发战略体系的重要组成部分,可以有效促进贫困地区金融市场健康有序发展.对改革开放以来的金融扶贫政策进行梳理,提炼出较具特色的六种金融扶贫模式,并总结相应的金融扶贫成效,这将对今后繁荣农村金融市场,巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果,更好解决农户融资难问题,进一步提升金融服务乡村振兴成效等方面具有重要的应用参考价值.     

农业银行信贷扶贫的政策效应与基本经验

中国农业银行信贷扶贫经历了三个阶段,经过长期的实践探索与总结,农业银行的信贷扶贫业务已经初步形成了小额到户扶助扶贫、农业产业化带动扶贫、农村基础设施辐射扶贫、科教文卫支撑扶贫和生态旅游拉动扶贫等多种形式并存的格局,取得了明显的成效,积累了丰富的经验。     

Stability and Change at FPTL: An Institutional Perspective

Once institutionalised, routines are a force for stability and resistance to change. This creates a problem for institutional theorists in explaining changes in accounting practice. This paper attempts to illustrate that institutional theory can encompass a processual explanation of change, through a case study of Fiji Posts and Telecommunications Limited (FPTL). We illustrate how institutional contradictions or inconsistencies were an impetus to institutional change in the organisation. Institutional entrepreneurs were instrumental in abandoning the existing routines and introducing new commercial ones. The commercial business norms were stabilised by the management team through the process of enactment, reproduction and routinisation.     

Bank risk taking and changes in the financial condition of banks' small and midsized commercial customers, 1978–1988 and 1988–1991

This study examines the pattern of bank risk taking through the 1980s and early 1990s, as reflected in the reported financial condition of banks' small and midsized customer firms. Using industry data published in Robert Morris Associates'Annual Statement Studies, we examine the ten-year period 1978–1988 to ascertain changes in the financial condition of banks' commerical customers during the 1980s, and the following three-year period 1988–1991, to determine financial condition changes in customer firms during the early 1990s. Empirical results suggest banks' small and midsized commercial clientele shifted toward riskier organizations From 1988 to 1988, confirming the popularized notion of banks' increased tolerance for risk during the 1980s. From 1988 to 1991, however, banks' client firms evidenced a pattern of risk reduction, which is consistent with the argument that banks have retrenched in their risk taking in recent years, shifting back toward a more financially sound customer base.     

Fertility, Contraceptive Choice, and Public Policy in Zimbabwe

Zimbabwe has invested massively in public infrastructure sinceindependence in 1980. The impact of these investments on demographicoutcomes is examined using household survey data matched withtwo community level surveys. A woman's education is a powerfulpredictor of both fertility and contraceptive use. These relationshipsare far from linear and have changed shape in recent years.After controlling for household resources, both the availabilityand quality of health and family planning services have an importantimpact on the adoption of modern contraceptives. In particular,outreach programs such as mobile family planning clinics andcommunity-based distributors (CBDs) have been especially successful.However, not all women are equally served by this infrastructure.For example, CBDs have a bigger impact on younger, better educatedwomen, while mobile family planning clinics appear to have moresuccess with older, less educated women.