Die Bewertung von Handelsrisiken eines Übertragungsnetzbetreibers anhand einer Monte-Carlo-Simulation

EnBW Transportnetze AG (TNG) is the transmission system operator (TSO) of Energie Baden-Württemberg AG. Due to the Renewable Energy Sources Act, the TSOs are obliged to take-up the (fluctuating) complete amount of electricity made of renewable resources. The TSOs have to transform this feeding into a constant output. Therefore, TNG has started trading on the European Power Exchange. The amount of electricity needed to be bought and sold respectively in order to create a constant output involves risks because of price volatility. As a result of the merit-order-effect, these risks increase. Due to this effect, procurement costs generally exceed sales revenues despite of well-balanced quantitative electricity tradings. For evaluating the procurement and merchandise risk at the intraday market, a Monte-Carlo-Simulation is executed on the basis of historical turnover data.     

Eine Bewertung der Regelenergievermarktung im Power-to-Gas-Konzept

The integration of the increasing share of fluctuating renewable energy sources into the energy system requires more options in flexibility. A promising attempt is the power-to-gas concept (PtG) which allows the production of hydrogen and synthetic natural gas (SNG) from electricity and the storage in caverns or existing gas storage facilities. However, an economic operation in Germany is not expected before 2030, when the amount of surplus energy, mainly generated in wind parks, will be sufficient. Currently, a hardly analyzed aspect is the potential commercialization of the flexible electrolysis as controllable load on the electricity balancing market. This offers opportunities to generate additional revenues and to obtain cheap electricity in the form of balancing energy. The present article has been designed to analyze this aspect and to examine the impact of a potential commercialization of balancing energy on the gas production costs within the PtG concept. At first, the current legal framework, the funding instruments of SNG and the differences between the notion ‘Speichergas’ and ‘Biogas’ will be outlined. An overview of the current balancing market will be given and the development of prices on the secondary balancing market will be evaluated as well as expected market trends will be presented. The following calculation of gas production costs, which result from applying an optimal proposal strategy on the secondary balancing market, is model-based and uses historical data. Three scenarios are defined and examined, and the impact of variable electricity prices is analyzed. The electricity balancing market is profitable and offers many opportunities for PtG plants. The results show a decrease of SNG production costs by up to 74 % to 46,9 €/MWh. As for the hydrogen, the production costs amount to approximately 25,8 €/MWh which equals a cost reduction of up to 81 % compared to conventional PtG plants without commercialization of balancing energy.     

Potentiale und Risiken der Nutzung von Methan aus Methanhydraten als Energieträger

Marine and permafrost-based methane hydrates are the largest existing fossil carbon resource. Their broad geographic distribution, especially in comparison to oil and conventional gas, make them a promising future source of energy. However, there is a danger of forcing the greenhouse effect in the event of a release of methane into the atmosphere as well as causing the collapse of oceanic slope sediments. Also the technical difficulties in extracting methane from hydrates are not yet fully resolved. Nevertheless, research on methane hydrates has been forced both on political as well as economic considerations in recent years and methane hydrates have several practical advantages, which make them a transitional solution worth looking at on the way to a future renewable-based energy supply. However, the knowledge of the potentials and risks of methane hydrates is still very poor, especially in the German-speaking public, administration and policies. This deficiency hopefully will be eased by this overview dealing with the current state of research and an outlook based on the most important findings.     

Kurzevaluation des Energie- und Klimapakets der EU-Kommission vom 23. Januar 2008

The main features of the European Commission’s “Climate Action and Renewable Energy Package” from January 23rd, 2008, have been implemented in the GINFORS model. In 2007 various alternative paths for achieving the EU’s climate targets were analysed on behalf of the German Federal Ministry of Economy and Technology (BMWi) using GINFORS. The results basically point in the same direction as those found by the model-based Impact Assessment put out by the European Commission. The macro-economic costs of the package are below 1 % of the EU’s annual GDP. In particular the new member states will be affected above average, which justifies redistribution mechanisms. The yearly growth rates though will remain almost unchanged until 2020. The disproportionately high reduction targets for the ETS sector cannot be reproduced by GINFORS. They cause higher macro-economic costs than necessary. Altogether this does not yet result in a coherent traceable overall picture of the EU package, especially in comparison to analyses of the German energy and climate change policy.     

Flächendeckende Einführung von Smart Metern – Internationale Erfahrungen und Rückschlüsse für Deutschland

Various countries are introducing smart meters in different ways and with different pace. This article reviews the experiences of four European countries that have decided on a complete roll-out of smart meters or have (partly) realised it. In the first part we show theoretically what welfare effects result from different strategies. Afterwards we analyse how these countries have organized a complete roll-out. From this analysis we draw conclusions for the implementation of a full roll-out of smart meters in Germany and derive policy recommendations. It appears that liberalised markets per se do not seem to trigger a roll-out of smart meters. For Germany with its liberalised metering market this may allow the following conclusions: It should be defined clearly what objectives are to be reached by a roll-out. Particularly it should be analysed what costs and benefits are involved when it comes to a complete roll-out of smart meters and if there are potentially any information deficits on the side of energy consumers. On this basis a sound strategy is to be developed.     

Demographischer Wandel und dessen Auswirkungen auf den Energieverbrauch in Hamburg und Mecklenburg-Vorpommern

This study estimates the impact of demographic change on energy use in two German regions, Hamburg and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. Data from the EVS household survey are used to identify demographic characteristics and age-specific consumption patterns in the two regions. They are used in combination with regional household projections to construct consumption expenditure forecasts, which are then entered as demand impulses into regional input-out-put models to calculate sectoral production effects and energy use. The analysis shows that the impact of demographic change on energy use differs considerably between the two regions. Therefore, studies conducted at the national level may miss important effects, making it necessary to conduct more studies at the regional level.     

Analyse der Marktaussichten von Biogasanlagen

Without guaranteed compensation, granted by the German Renewable Energy Sources Act (Erneuerbare Energien Gesetz/EEG), biogas plants compete with all other plant types on the market for electrical energy. However, exchange-based electricity products do not currently permit an economically viable operation of biogas plants owing to their cost situation.     

Risikomanagement und -controlling bei Offshore-Windenergieanlagen

In this paper we provide an overview of the various terms and methods used in risk management and risk controlling. Further, we identify and discuss internal and external risks of offshore wind power plants (WPP) and demonstrate for the concrete example of a fictitious 400 MW offshore wind park in the North Sea the use of the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. The offshore risks involved are considered as part of the different components of the free cash flow, which form the basis for the DCF evaluation, by using a Monte Carlo simulation. The latter contains assumptions for the distribution of each cash flow component, which are based on a detailed consideration of the risk bearings. We use the cash flow at risk (CFaR), with the DCF as the risk-carrying target variable, as a quantitative risk measure for the simulated DCF evaluation. The CFaR enables us to draw a conclusion regarding the risk distribution of the DCF. According to the fictitious offshore wind park studied, the CFaR obtained provides evidence that the investment project investigated is indeed economically viable.     

Deutschlands Energieversorgungsrisiko gestern,heute und morgen

Along with the oil price, concerns about the security of energy supply have soared once again in recent years. In this paper, we analyze Germany’s past und future energy security situation and compare it to that of other G7 countries using a statistical indicator of the long-term energy supply risk and empirical energy data for the years 1978 through 2007. We find that Germany’s energy supply risk has increased substantially since the oil price crises of the 1970s, whereas France and Japan have managed to reduce their risks dramatically, most notably through the deployment of nuclear power plants. Among G7 countries, Germany’s risk is only surpassed by that of Italy, while it can be expected that the German energy security situation may deteriorate in the future, not least due to the phase-out of nuclear power.     

Negative Strompreise und der Vorrang Erneuerbarer Energien

With the appearance of negative prices a discussion about flaws in the design of the German electricity market arose. We show that negative prices are not only due to the integration of electricity from renewable energy sources. Negative prices can actually increase welfare. Yet, a loss of welfare does arise because of the priority feed-in of these sources. They are inclined to deliver energy even when the cost of production exceeds the market price, i.e. the electricity’s value. We suggest to remove the priority feed-in combined with a modification of the feed-in tariffs. Thereby, renewable electricity producers will suffer no drawbacks but social welfare increases.     

Status,Daten und Entwicklungen der globalen Energieversorgung

Global energy consumption is growing. The growth in energy consumption is now covered roughly equally by renewable energy resources and fossil energy resources. Nevertheless, crude oil, natural gas and coal continue to form the backbone of energy supplies. This means that the dependency of energy supplies on fossil energy resources will continue for the foreseeable future. In Germany as well, there is no end in sight of the country decreasing its high dependency on imports of fossil energy resources despite the high growth rate of renewables—and due in part to the decline in domestic production and the withdrawal from nuclear power generation. Crude oil, natural gas, hard coal and lignite with a share of around 80%, still make the largest contribution to the German and global primary energy consumption.All of the renewables together cover around 17% of global energy consumption. Despite the almost inexhaustible potential, making energy generation from renewable sources available at a large scale and commensurate with demand is still in its infancy. By way of contrast, very large reserves of fossil energy resources have already been developed for many years, and are being used in growing quantities. The global comparison of already produced and therefore consumed energy resources and the still existing reserves and resources, reveal that large non-depleted energy potential still exists in all regions around the world. Whilst the potential hardly appears to be touched in Austral-Asia, in the CIS and North America, only a small portion has been produced to date even in Europe. This wealth in resources is primarily attributable to the large deposits of coal found on all continents, which, unlike conventional crude oil and natural gas, are not restricted to a few special regions. Although the Middle East is an extremely important region for crude oil and natural gas, the minor coal reserves in the area mean that its overall potential is comparatively small.     

Einflussfaktoren auf die Bereitschaft von Privatkunden, Ökostrom nachzufragen

The present study investigates impacts of attitudinal and perceptual characteristics of residential electricity consumers on their intention to use a green power tariff/supplier in the future. The work rests on a standardized telephone survey of 267 household electricity consumers of a German power supplier. Multivariate Partial Least Squares analysis indicates that, regardless of a person’s level of actual power consumption in the recent past, the intention to use green electricity is significantly higher among customers who have a positive general attitude towards environmental protection measures and who report an endorsing valuation of green power by their close social contacts. In a subsample of participants with a low actual electricity consumption in the year preceding the survey the intention to use green energy is significantly positively affected by the weight an individual attaches to electricity prices in one’s own supplier selection decisions and the person’s belief that one’s present power company takes over social responsibility. In contrast, in the subgroup of respondents with a high actual electricity consumption customers’ intention to use green energy is significantly enhanced by the degree of perceived dissimilarity among power company offerings. The findings are used to derive suggestions for green energy marketing measures of power companies and future energy consumer research.     

Prognose der Kraftstoffpreisentwicklung und ihrer Auswirkungen auf die Nachfrage nach Bahntransportleistungen in Österreich

Due to increasing crude oil consumption, especially of the fast growing Asian economies, decreasing production rates of several oil fields and increasing exploration costs, the oil price reached a new all time high in July 2008. The present world wide economic crisis caused a sharp decrease of the oil prices, nevertheless, prices will rise again with economic recovery. In this paper, long term projections of the International Energy Agency (IEA) and future contracts notations are employed to estimate oil price development until the year 2020. We estimate the price transmission of crude oil prices to Austrian retail diesel and gasoline prices and combine the estimation results with long term projections of the crude oil price. These projections are used to analyze the effect of rising oil prices on Austrian railway demand. The effect of increasing mineral oil taxes with the aim of an increasing internalisation of the external costs of road traffic on railway demand is discussed.